Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

very sad to see another member who inspires and has thought that tests the laymans boundaries ,good luck on your next port .

the crazy thing is not many will notice there loss .its a crazy world simond.

Yes

I really wasn't going to post again in this thread but then someone comes along and re-ignites my faith in humanity.

Keep an eye on that untested M15 decision point. It's my current first port of call and if I trade the level it'll be with confirming PA.

Hi simond2002, i hope you dont mind me also posting here. i like the forum name. and probably my chart was the one re-igniting your re-posting here agin. thank you for the zone. i will watch PA approaching to that zone and PA reaction on that zone.

here is another lesson for me: when price fails to hit our pending order, and the reaction is good, be ready to manually enter the trade ourselves.

Not a problem.

To whomever happens to be interested, please read post 1.

EURUSD M5.

May have a short term intraday change in direction to the down side. There's some H1 rationale for this too although 1.06600 will potentially hold price up.

GBPJPY M5 tech.

Glad your back and I'm sure im not the only 1

Thanks mate, means a lot.

it is kind of contradictory to your intention in post #1. the way you trade supposed to give you edge over others and plenty of free time for personal and trading life.
starting with sam seiden and many others who trade supply-demand it is only and the best way to deal with market makers. many threads in FF were opened with
SUPPLY-DEMAND in title of thread and none lasted long or to current time....Don't know why.

take care.

I agree. It is kind of contradictory but let me tell you my reasoning.

I've been trading for five years. It took me about two years to realise the biggest mistake that I'd made was to enter the market from day one, and try and trade for profit. It's a bit like a dentist offering you his services to pull out an aching tooth then telling you he only just enrolled at dental college. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't let a guy like that anywhere near my teeth. So why do we in the trading world behave like that student dentist every day? Why are most people wasting their time and energy trying to trade for profit before learning their craft? I think a big part of the answer is that the Internet is full of people posting only results, and of course, in human terms, this kind of sugar-coated sweet is always going to attract a crowd. I know this for a fact because at one time I was a follower as well. I also know for a fact that trying to emulate someone else's results or worse still, make sense of their rationale that is so often full of contradiction, is pure folly.

I picked SR/SD because it made sense to me and to cut a very long story short, I reached the conclusion that the best I could offer was to post levels in advance of the fact and then let those that are interested to either study the levels in their own time, or better still, watch how the market reacts then use that contemporaneous experience to forge their own methodology. If I can help them, then it follows that one day they may return the favour and help me, and thus everyone grows together. Fundamentally, however, this approach relies on posting levels beforehand and not posting results only. The moment people start posting results only they disrupt the entire process, which then resolves back to dental college phase with everyone running around trying to pull teeth.

Without getting personal, I decided I was wasting my time here. So I did go away and try a couple of much smaller forums but for various reasons neither of them suited my approach. And so here I am back again. I acknowledge that we leave a footprint of activity at FF and must accept that. But people can also change their mind. The key question has to be, Did we grow as people/traders? My tolerance for after-the-fact/journal contribution to this discussion thread is now zero. Nevertheless, my own conduct and sense of moral obligation remains unchanged; I'll continue to post analysis/levels before-the-fact because it is the best and most efficient way in my view for people to learn. Conversely it also helps me to develop as a trader.

I'm now out of this short trade. Entry was on resolution of the bearish PA at the first yellow line. Exactly the same concept/stuff redsword11 used to speak about.

Interesting, not in a trade for GJ. Looking at this range.

Same. I have that level on H1. It was rejected by a couple of pips yesterday. Looks like the market hasn't been able to entice buyers that high yet and is therefore having to pull back. Rationale for shorting M5 this morning was about trying to take advantage of that pullback.

Market traded through 1.06600 and is currently testing the underside. Approach back was quite aggressive but it'll be interesting to watch how PA plays out.

USDJPY M5 stuck in between levels. Will follow PA through on this.

Is it a bird or is it a plane? Is it an Up and Under or is it a QM? Or is it perhaps just a Rally-Base-Drop? Or maybe even a Supply Zone? (or would that be Supply "Level"?) So much confusion surrounding this PA.

I was going to try and put this post into words but will stick to simple diagrams and charts instead. I'm not trying to dispel anybody's method of trading it. If it works for you, my only advice is keep doing it. But if it's causing confusion, perhaps this will help.

The following pattern may in fact be an Up and Under pattern. To be honest, I'm not particularly interested to address what it is. I'm more interested to address what it's not (at least by my understanding). It's not a QM.



When a QM hasn't yet formed there is a good chance of this happening:



Price may then go on to form what some call a "horn" but which I refer to as "expansion":



Why can this be an issue? Traders conflating Up and Under with QM may try and Limit sell the original pattern. If that works over a series of trades with a decent payout then that is good for them. Again, I'm not commenting to those trading this pattern for consistent profit. What I'm addressing is the mistake of referring to the original pattern as QM. In fact, the following pattern is a QM. What is key about the QM is its potential trend changing PA that is defined by the red coloured LL:



What can we conclude? Well, one may check the original pattern and say that it may form a QM. But to say that it is a QM is to predict something that hasn't happened yet. And as we know, the market can be very unforgiving where predicting is concerned.

I'd now like to offer some practical examples from EURUSD this last trading week and also bring into the mix the idea of supply zones/levels.

In the first instance we could observe the following:



Cleaning up and expanding the chart, placing in the horizontal line where the Limit sell and risk are being suggested to be placed for this pattern we now see the following:



In the above example, the trade worked out. We know we can't refer to the original PA as QM, but what if we dispel the idea of Up and Under altogether as well, and focus solely on SD zone trading instead? Our chart may now be illustrated like this, with a supply zone drawn in:



As well as being referred to as "Supply Zone", the run up in price and subsequent drop that creates the supply zone is also something referred to as a Rally-Base-Drop by Sam Seiden. Is one terminology wrong while the other is right? We have to decide the answer to that ourselves.

There is a final question that is concerned with how the supply zone could be traded. Well, some will sell on touch, while others will trade confirming PA. For those with good eyes, the confirming PA is actually quite nice on this trade.

The final chart I'd like to take a look at is what I would refer to as a QM. It is quite large, bullish and played out this week. Here's the chart:



The above QM obviously completed on Friday's close, however, the question is before the right shoulder formed, could we have called the PA, Up and Under? Or perhaps reverse Up and Under? I don't wish to address again that contentious issue because the only thing I'd be concerned with now as a trader is, how I could profit? I think this is where redsword11's allusion to the idea that, It's not what we look at, it's what we see, is really important.

The trade is here. I don't wish to discuss the entry method. There's already plenty of clues about that.



I hope this post has been of some help. Most of all I hope it demonstrates the importance of focusing on PA and working to understand what "is" and what's "not". Trade safe.

(apologies if there's any typos; I haven't had the time to check it)

Saturday night and instead of watching movies I'm watching charts. More entertaining. Anyhow...

Bit of a follow on from the post above that feeds into live analysis on current AUDUSD situation.

This last week people have been trying to short AUSUSD on Daily charts. For me there has been no signal on Daily and although I started to watch with interest at 0.7500 this was for reasons discussed in the prior post. Basic daily chart is below:



The big question now that price has closed above the last LH is, what can potentially happen from this point forward? Well, price can just continue going up but I'm not interested in buying at these prices. I'm more interested if price pulls back, especially to that lower level with the tick mark next to it:



Next question I have to ask myself, is there a reasonably high TF zone at that level which I could possibly buy from? And the answer is, yes on H4. It's a bit of a mid-zone but as we know, traded in the correct context a mid-zone can be lucrative. The price of this particular mid-zone is 0.7350 (nice and round number):



The next prudent question I will ask myself is, can I short the market down to that mid-zone? Again, I go hunting for clues, which can be found on the H1. I personally will need to see a test of 0.75745 then some kind of bearish PA that I recognise before taking a short. If the supply zone is breached beforehand, I won't trade it:



As we know, anything can set up. So we watch and wait.

This is not trading advice or signals of any sort. It's just my personal viewpoint. You are responsible for your own account.