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  • #147,101
  • Jan 19, 2017 1:53pm Jan 19, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going home in a rather uneventful session as expected from a inline with expectations ECB. +++ Game changing playing continuation post ++++ long macro fundamental post alert ++++ Things are changing in the background. Last couple years we have been trying to outguess and digest Central Banks, Jan 2017 we pretty much have all clear from all CB in the world both in policy and expectations for the foreseeable future. --> Now in contrast populist and politicians have taken over and we are entering in new uncharted waters as every political short...
We are in major de-globalization cycle which started about 2011 as far as i can pinpoint major tectonic changes on chessboard. It is escalating without the doubt, possibly in the places one would least expect. If we put it as very rough pattern history would tell us we could be facing for really shitty situation, the best we can hope for now is if it stays only as asymetric pattern and doesnt switch the phase where the shit gets real. For trading its very important to note that couse this cycle isnt going end tomorrow. De-globalization has been often killed instantly in very swift move, but not when it is out of scale like in this case, this fits more into scenario 2.
Going back to previous post, we have inflation (EMs, UK), we have asymetric war (50% of globe), trade wars check, sadly history tells for very little examples where the last 4th "check" doesnt materialize aswell where things to symetric.
  • #147,102
  • Edited 2:44pm Jan 19, 2017 1:55pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting Fadhl
With regard to Trump's inauguration tomorrow and the expectation of high volatility in the market, I suspect his first speech, as President, will be well received if he focuses on (and I think he will do): unifying the USA around certain principles and values; ensuring the Americans and the rest of the world about his priorities, in particular the replacement of Obama Care with an improved alternative, the review of international agreements for win-win partnerships, etc.; calming the international community... With this kind of speech, the USD and...
I dont see downside on gold tomorrow, rather upside escalation (USD bear tomorrow, not sure which time speech is but downside USD is opened for now till better part of tomorrow). Probability side its more likely.
  • #147,103
  • Jan 19, 2017 3:04pm Jan 19, 2017 3:04pm
Extremely important alert today. Treasuries triggering imminent early break down alerts on the close, this is a major one if we break down as it will carry the board including Dollar with force.

On the rest, a very dull day across the board with US Equities screaming for help at the highs. We need a push from somewhere urgently [Trump tweet? ]. Euro in very choppy and bumpy sessions clashing at key levels that will define the rest of the year. Shorter term 1.061x easily held the flow test but we are set for a rather bearish daily close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,104
  • Jan 19, 2017 3:27pm Jan 19, 2017 3:27pm
Quoting sisse
On the TA side: Maps are crystal clear and there is very little in play for today. 1.061x is the fundamental level in play via rates differentials with a wide range in play after the Brexit clear up of stops @1.066x. 1.084x top of the range with a v. soft intermediate stop 1.074x. 1.061x is the rain maker with 1,051x for momentum to trigger the final leg in the mid term swing. --> For the actual flows: @IMARICH1 is our designated driver for...
Sisse, could you please elaborate - what exactly means "rain maker" here?
Thanks
  • #147,105
  • Jan 19, 2017 3:58pm Jan 19, 2017 3:58pm
seems I was wrong on the flow as NY did not play it to the downside as suggested. on ST and MT its still all the same.

P.S.: thanks sisse for the FA long term concepts. Deligtful to read. I guess more stressing to live it through Can u please more elaborate on this? "markets will start dislodging from the real economy and then the real economy will start breaking away from policies."

isnt this article a way to say it too?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/worl...l-prize-winner
  • #147,106
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:08pm Jan 19, 2017 4:08pm
Quoting chester123
seems I was wrong on the flow as NY did not play it to the downside as suggested. ....
'Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me' ....

It was nothing in play with inline ECB. Draghi was muted on everything as was expected from an independent technocrat when political factors are cooking in the early stage. On the the rest ECB pretty much announced everything we needed to know for a few months in the previous conference.

Markets are waiting for Trump to give the go ahead. Problem is he's contradicting himself. Wants uber fiscal expansionist protectionist and inflationary pro Dollar policies with at the same talking that Dollar is too high. In this particular case we CANT have the day and night at the same time. Markets are assuming that when he sit down he will follow the path of pro mega business first especially given his inner circle selected team (Big Pharma, Oil and Finance) and worry about the rest for later ....

First impression so far. He comes across as very improvised. Seem that not even himself though he has going to win until the very end so his initial economic policy toolbox plan looks as hollow as his Tower in NY....

Treasuries are not waiting, the rest of the board especially Dollar are in standby until he start his presidency.

We'll see in a few ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,107
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:14pm Jan 19, 2017 4:14pm
Quoting sisse
Extremely important alert today. Treasuries triggering imminent early break down alerts on the close, this is a major one if we break down as it will carry the board including Dollar with force.
This would be bullish dollar right?

The correlation between 10yr treasuries and EURUSD since mid December is quite clear. 10 year treasures breaking lower but EURUSD hasn't yet followed. Is this the early sign of the market positioning for Trump tomorrow?
  • #147,108
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:20pm Jan 19, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting suntan
{quote} This would be bullish dollar right? The correlation between 10yr treasuries and EURUSD since mid December is quite clear. 10 year treasures breaking lower but EURUSD hasn't yet followed. Is this the early sign of the market positioning for Trump tomorrow?
Yes.

Not sure if tomorrow is anything market moving. But yes in general when Trump starts.

This was from the conversation back in December with @The Fool

Quoting The Fool
{quote}...looking for a longdong red spoos weekly candle......
Quoting sisse
{quote} Boat is full. We are still flood with good news. Today outlook is positive for the economy. No changes in short term yet. We will see rebalancing in the next few days for years end. Rates will just put the hand breaks in the mid term until Trump roll the dice. Eyeballing post-inaguration to kick start the real mover and shakers for 2017 in equities... sisse
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,109
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:24pm Jan 19, 2017 4:24pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 'Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me' .... It was nothing in play with inline ECB. Draghi was muted on everything as was expected from an independent technocrat when political factors are cooking in the early stage. On the the rest ECB pretty much announced everything we needed to know for a few months in the previous conference. Markets are waiting for Trump to give the go ahead. Problem is he's contradicting himself. Wants uber fiscal expansionist protectionist and inflationary pro Dollar policies with at the same talking...

Ok, so the flows may have been mapped well but I interpreted ECB as dovish, which was wrong from FA perspective. Fair enough. It was inline =) flow for inline.

But so if treasuries are on the march it means they believe Trump will go for "uber fiscal expansionist protectionist and inflationary" - which I believe as well - if he was to stop the dollar - he would have to stay pat (and I do not think thats gonna be his way) and even that may not be enought with FED rates on rise.

In any case - it seems that if trump goes as he promised and based on Schiller article = he may give the final boost to the final stage of the business cycle =) last mid term leg (which is partly on move already) of USD and equities in Q1/Q2 (short and mid term impact of the policies) and after that a route to hell for global/US economy with all the negative long term effects of the policies =) and I guess you anticipate something like shiller given our long term statuses on dollar and equities, which are neutral for now.
  • #147,110
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:36pm Jan 19, 2017 4:36pm
Quoting chester123
{quote}... But so if treasuries are on the march it means they believe Trump will go for "uber fiscal expansionist protectionist and inflationary" - which I believe as well - if he was to stop the dollar - he would have to stay pat (and I do not think thats gonna be his way) and even that may not be enought with FED rates on rise.
He is a multimillionaire businessman first, second and third with very little knowledge and experience in economic and monetary policy. Consensus is that he will go 'all in" to the extreme on pro large business benefit and incentives. After the fiscal budget party and distributing the big pie of all the infrastructure projects and inward looking industries is over, he may start thinking how to deal with the 'collateral damage'....by then ...who cares ....... that's for later ...thats seems to be his approach...

Quote
Schiller article = he may give the final boost to the final stage of the business cycle =) last mid term leg of USD and equities in Q1/Q2 (short and mid term impact of the policies) and after that a route to hell for global/US economy with all the negative long term effects of the policies =) and I guess you anticipate something like shiller given our long term statuses on dollar and equities, which are neutral for now.

Yes that seem to be the most realistic scenario.

There are some others that are more extreme thinking, forecasting that he will go insane and random since the beginning. I personally don't think so. First because the US economy is very strong right now and second the US is still a strong democracy and there are quite a few institutional 'check' mechanism that will keep any insanity from happen in the short term.

In my view, stock markets have more potential to the upside rather than the real economy.... markets and numbers wont lie in the mid term....we'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,111
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:44pm Jan 19, 2017 4:44pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} He is a multimillionaire businessman first, second and third with very little knowledge and experience in economic and monetary policy. Consensus is that he will go 'all in" to the extreme on pro large business benefit and incentives. After the fiscal budget party and distributing the big pie of all the infrastructure projects and inward looking industries, he may start thinking how to deal with the 'collateral damage'....by then ...who cares ....... that's for later ...thats seems to be his approach... {quote} Yes that seem to be the most...
Interesting. We´ll see what happens in next days. In any case - trading wise would be best if he goes all in as promised as its gonna be clear =) rising yields on treasuries, rising dollar, rising equities in short and rest of mid term legs. After we will revaluate again after. Any other scenario - Trump backing down or going insane is gonna be hard to trade.

In the meanwhile we can trade on UK100 once the BoE is cleared as a practice for US500
  • #147,112
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:47pm Jan 19, 2017 4:47pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Interesting. Well see what happens in next days. In any case - trading wise would be best if he goes all in as promised as its gonna be clear =) rising yields on treasuries, rising dollar, rising equities in short and rest of mid term legs. After we will revaluate again after. Any other scenario - Trump backing down or going insane is gonna be hard to trade. In the meanwhile we can trade on UK100 once the BoE is cleared as a practice for US500
The scary part is that both seem to be aligning to happen at the same time.

In general European Equities (including the UK just in case there are some hardcore Brexiters around...jejeje) won't collapse with the US pumping up. Obviously the more protectionism and less free trade the bigger the divergence between a country and the global economy. In that sense UK equities look particularly fragile for the long term as per today....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,113
  • Jan 19, 2017 4:52pm Jan 19, 2017 4:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} The scary part is that both seem to be aligning to happen at the same time. In general European Equities (including the UK just in case there are some hardcore Brexiters around...jejeje) won't collapse with the US pumping up. Obviously the more protectionism and less free trade the bigger the divergence between a country and the global economy. In that sense UK equities look particularly fragile for the long term as per today.... sisse
So european equities (UK100) is gonna be strugling on the highs with US500 pumping up (on trump going all in) until they decline/crash both at the same time but UK100 falling harder as is gonna be more disattached from UK economy - or as UK is gonna be more deeper in the deglobalization process? Do I get it right?
  • #147,114
  • Jan 19, 2017 5:00pm Jan 19, 2017 5:00pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} So european equities (UK100) is gonna be strugling on the highs with US500 pumping up (on trump going all in) until they decline/crash both at the same time but UK100 falling harder as is gonna be more disattached from UK economy. Do I get it right?
The UK is still part of the EU and Common Market ...nothing has changed yet. The closer we get to the details the higher the impact until then ...

Don't forget that the EU have free trade agreements with good parts of the world. UK leaving the common market also implies losing the agreements with most of Latam, Africa, the special EU partners and now even the fresh agreement with Canada...

Basically it will become for the next decade or so the closest and less free trade country in the develop world. An average trade agreement takes between 6 to 8 years to sign and ratify !!!, the UK doesn't even have A WTO delegation and needs 2500 trade and legal experts in the next 2 years (there are not enough proffesionals with international law and trade expertise in the whole UK. They are hiring 'EU' people by the dozen the last few weeks to fill those seats...the irony) just to fill the gap of leaving the common market ...that even in the most optimistic scenario is going to take a loooong and painful time in terms of free trade.

Most serious and not bias calculation estimate that the UK will have the same level of market access it has right now in 2028 the earliest ....meaning they will slaughter a generation of growth in the process to end up in the starting point ...insanity?

...we'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,115
  • Edited Jan 20, 2017 6:31am Jan 19, 2017 5:40pm | Edited Jan 20, 2017 6:31am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Interesting. Well see what happens in next days. In any case - trading wise would be best if he goes all in as promised as its gonna be clear =) rising yields on treasuries, rising dollar, rising equities in short and rest of mid term legs. After we will revaluate again after. Any other scenario - Trump backing down or going insane is gonna be hard to trade. In the meanwhile we can trade on UK100 once the BoE is cleared as a practice for US500
Chiming in just to mention he doesn't need to back down. For Trump to have the the leverage required to force the parts of his agenda that Republicans dislike, and there are many, he would need approval ratings near 1.5 times current. Only point being, walking the talk has become much more difficult for him over the last month or more and focus on the Republican Congress' chosen path (whatever that turns out to be) might be a better way to navigate.
We've got a three party system now in the US.
  • #147,116
  • Jan 20, 2017 2:12am Jan 20, 2017 2:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} The UK is still part of the EU and Common Market ...nothing has changed yet. The closer we get to the details the higher the impact until then ... Don't forget that the EU have free trade agreements with good parts of the world. UK leaving the common market also implies losing the agreements with most of Latam, Africa, the special EU partners and now even the fresh agreement with Canada... Basically it will become for the next decade or so the closest and less free trade country in the develop world. An average trade agreement takes between...
Sisse you are the usual skeptical unbeliever: May said Uk is going for more, larger and better than before free trade agreements whit the rest of the world ...

'Sellers', nothing more. With all the due respect for professional sellers but politicians should address something more than consensus and they should know what they are talking about.

Well'se what consequences will be in real world and in trading. Today don't know what expect but i'll try to open small position near 1.076x or above (max 1.086x) if happen and i'm in front of PC
  • #147,117
  • Jan 20, 2017 3:01am Jan 20, 2017 3:01am
European session will be over at the top of next hour and after that is all the politics for inauguration day. Expecting a rather dull and boring session with an early close.

Not much to see or do across the board with same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

Quoting change
{quote} Sisse you are the usual skeptical unbeliever: May said Uk is going for more, larger and better than before free trade agreements whit the rest of the world ... ...
lol mate.

You don't have much experience in international trade agreements, do you?.... Rest of the world in terms of trade only means China and US (the rest are NZ and a bunch of very poor Commonwealth countries and islands) . Both are HUGE monster countries for a puny and tiny UK (it will be eaten alive in a free trade deal with any of both and it wont ever pass Parliament approval because of the huge social concession that will need to be done in the hard Brexitland areas economy [rural England] in order to sign a trade deal with them) and even if you believe in miracles with the US that will take no less than 6 to 8 years to work out.

The rest (and 85% of UK trade currently has) is with free trade agreements the UK already has right now because being part of the Common Market and the EU. In simple words we are cancelling 75% of free trade agreements and rolling back to WTO levels until they renegotiate again with the same but prolly worst terms as the UK will be little in comparison with the bargaining power of the EU as whole in terms of trade.

You are being naive, the odds of the UK having more free trade access as it already has right now in the next 10 years are the same as me kicking Hussain Bolt ass in a 100m race: Zero to none.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,118
  • Jan 20, 2017 3:06am Jan 20, 2017 3:06am
Quoting sisse
European session will be over at the top of next hour and after that is all the politics for inauguration day. Expecting a rather dull and boring session with an early close. Not much to see or do across the board with same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse {quote} lol mate. You don't have much experience in international trade agreements, do you?.... Rest of the world in terms of trade only means China and US (the rest are NZ and a bunch of very poor Commonwealth countries and islands) . Both are HUGE monster countries for a puny and tiny...
lol

sarcasm sisse sarcasm
  • #147,119
  • Jan 20, 2017 3:15am Jan 20, 2017 3:15am
Sisse, you skeptical bastard...damn you!


good luck today all, trade safe..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #147,120
  • Jan 20, 2017 3:27am Jan 20, 2017 3:27am
after a long time i just laughed on sisse post ....

this is what i call in-depth knowledge .... anyways thankx for all the inputs .... yesterday i was thinking of if you come up will have a small conversation but went to bed early ..... everything what i was suppose to ask were all asked by @chester123 so silently read it all ....
Re-Incarnated
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