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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,061
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:44am Jan 17, 2017 10:44am
Quoting goosebone
It's expectations that matters. Market wants to position for what is coming from Trumpenomics. All we got to go on is what he says. And he says a lot. He can swing large cap stock prices up or down with a tweet. He can do the same with currencies (ask the peso) even USD. Just the fact that he talks about it at all is somewhat radical and gets a reaction. Makes it more difficult to get ahead of those who are trying to get ahead of him. I want to believe that cooler heads prevail but it gets hard to find any cooler heads when politics is driving....
yes, I agree its about expectations and markets have moved a lot on trumpconomics. However, if we just relate to the comment/tweet about dollar =) if he wants cheaper dollar he would have to adjust the policies accordingly to have the fundamental effect. Just crying for cheap dollar is just a stupid wish if thats all there is. My two cents.

Of course different story is gonna be if we get to some kind of currency manipulation. However, those weapons are mostly in hands of CB so weŽll see how the principle of indipendence holds.
  • #147,062
  • Edited 11:20am Jan 17, 2017 11:03am | Edited 11:20am
...and Europe going home with a major GAME CHANGER day for the future of Europe. For those who haven't witness one yet in the thread ...they appear seldom but they mark the end/start of macro moves in the mid/long term and set the tone for Months and Quarters to come.

FTSE on profit taking after the news (no brainer really) and risk off still well under way across the board. As anticipated since the day of the vote was confirmed, Brexit chapter 2 will be with us for a long time. It will have it's first heat wave point in March and a few hiccups with lots of politics in the middle.

We'll reach boiling point if the negotiations end up as disastrous as May speech today and the dominos leaving the UK start falling one by one as companies keep rolling contingency plans and moving away. Chapter 3 [ expected for 2019 (the potential wipe out of the real economy) and beyond is still v. far and cloudy to even make a comment today.

Expecting brexit chapter 2 initial knee jerk reaction moves start fading away after the Fix where Euro will take back centre stage for ECB.

-> Final update from today:

--> Rolling back short term outlook in Euro from neutral to sell till ECB.

sisse

Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Sisse, if I understood correctly you closed your long position in the pound? Did you open it during May's speech (the last short term outlook for pound was aggressive sell before the speech). Thanks
NO. The opposite....expectation short term play last week 1.238 [check] -> 1.220x [check] -> 1.204x [check] > max extension the capitulation a bit below the current lows to 1.178x in clean sweep. [stoped out today on the trailing at 1.231x]..follow the backposts ...

Quoting MarianneOslo
I have some problems understanding ths rally in GPB. ...
The move in Sterling it's in its last fumes. There is only a panic / BOE bazooka 3.0 left to complete the 'crumbs' left. Sterling was already annihilated from the currency board last year and today it just officially announced it lost its world currency status.

We are in 35 years lows and inflation is already here. BOE will have to put the hand break sooner rather than later. There is very little room in Sterling to the downside from a Fundamental perspective.

What is in play now in the brexit front is swapping the impact from the currency to the equities front. The final chapter will be from the equities front to the real economy (this is not in play right now).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,063
  • Jan 17, 2017 11:06am Jan 17, 2017 11:06am
Eu:

i think its choose your poison time for eu for the last mid term leg .... i dont think the market got (fact) for which it reached to the current level from May .... expectation already turned to fact and which i think will be drastic (case : PM may brexit trigger chapter 2) .... many of times on smaller or bigger tf it triggered a break down alert but still hanging in the garden .... we still have pending the most important the ecb & trumpnomics ....
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  • #147,064
  • Jan 17, 2017 11:08am Jan 17, 2017 11:08am
Quoting MarianneOslo
I have some problems understanding ths rally in GPB. May is saying she wants the hard deal not the light deal we have in Norway. She wants full Control. That the parliment will decide this it must be.. It is not abouth the decision abouth leaving the eurosone that has to be decided but the size of the deal. It is not posible to do it in an other way. Think it will goo down to 1.2285 in the first place
I think the vote on Brexit plans to be taken before Parliament is key for the up movement of Sterling. I even imagine the outlook might become neutral instead of soft sell.
  • #147,065
  • Jan 17, 2017 11:13am Jan 17, 2017 11:13am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I think the vote on Brexit plans to be taken before Parliament is key for the up movement of Sterling. I even imagine the outlook might become neutral instead of soft sell.
indeed ...it was the trigger comment today as it deferred any potential capitulation until the talking heads vote and etc....a textbook of kicking the can and pass the responsibility of signing the suicide note to Parliament while May can say 'I did everything in my hands...'.

Disgusting and sad for the UK but brilliant political play from May.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,066
  • Edited 11:35am Jan 17, 2017 11:25am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} indeed ...it was the trigger comment today as it deferred any potential capitulation until the talking heads vote and etc....a textbook of kicking the can and pass the responsibility of signing the suicide note to Parliament while May can say 'I did everything in my hands...'. Disgusting and sad for the UK but brilliant political play from May. sisse
xit

But as I understood it is not the Brexit that will be voted on but which kind of Brexit She can not decide this alone. There are several vays to quit the EU.

We might be at the bottom for the GPB for the fudamentals but are we at the bottom for the Brexit. We hear from Scotland todaythat this they do not like. What if UK rips apart?
  • #147,067
  • Jan 17, 2017 11:32am Jan 17, 2017 11:32am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} xit But as I understood it is not the Brexit that will be voted on but which kind of Brexit
It's about Brexit PLANS/IMPLEMENTATION.
  • #147,068
  • Jan 17, 2017 12:51pm Jan 17, 2017 12:51pm
Quoting sisse
We ticked 1.19xx on the expectation play for Article 50 but we couldn't test the lows.
There is something wrong in the way this move started with Monday's sub 1.20 lows printed before London opens and while NY is in holiday. One would have thought that this did not give the big hands opportunity to load at these levels...
  • #147,069
  • Edited 1:45pm Jan 17, 2017 1:10pm | Edited 1:45pm
Attached Image
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: STeuwecb.png Size: 37 KB
  • #147,070
  • Jan 17, 2017 1:18pm Jan 17, 2017 1:18pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} There is something wrong in the way this move started with Monday's sub 1.20 lows printed before London opens and while NY is in holiday. One would have thought that this did not give the big hands opportunity to load at these levels...
We are n a +3000 ticks non stop ride. Iwe have been in profit taking for a while. Inflation and BOE Is the next play from the Sterling side not Brexit.

You need to put it in perspective. You are referring to extreme multidecades levels in a very thin thin market like GU in a tweet trade over the weekend....

All that area below upto the 1.22xx handle is just pure air ith zero interest and real money around. There is nothing wrong with that move neither TA or FA wise.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,071
  • Jan 17, 2017 3:18pm Jan 17, 2017 3:18pm
Quoting sisse
There is only a panic / BOE bazooka 3.0 left to complete the 'crumbs' left. Sterling was already annihilated from the currency board last year and today it just officially announced it lost its world currency status. We are in 35 years lows and inflation is already here. BOE will have to put the hand break sooner rather than later.
there is something here, which confuses me. Usually "bazooka" refers to more QE, lower rates. However in the context of upcoming inflation, do you mean by "bazooka 3.0" here the possibility BOE to raise rates?
Thanks
  • #147,072
  • Jan 17, 2017 3:41pm Jan 17, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting goosebone
STeu.png;2144162 {image} {image}
Despite "good" data and tick up in inflation, ECB confirming QE extension (although tapered) and rates, and showing some concerns about hard Brexit choice (growth/inflation in EZ) is the most probable imo and could lead to slight dovish comments for Euro. Expecting the flows to the downside to resume and Euro to sit at 1,049x/1,052x for Trump inauguration (or beyond with the dovish comments).
  • #147,073
  • Jan 17, 2017 3:52pm Jan 17, 2017 3:52pm
...and we are rolling. Risk off was/is the name of the game. Equities worldwide starting to cough at the highs and in desperate need of a Trump tweet on inauguration day to continue.

On the FX board, a very nice profit taking in Sterling after the news triggering inflation and BOE play for the upcoming weeks. Euro keep holding strong and now with a good help from risk unlocking 1.084x.

No discussion in the Euro now and credit where is due. Very well done all that rode it from the 1.040x handle. Here completely out of touch and synch with this short term pullback.

sisse

Quoting jaxx80
{quote} there is something here, which confuses me. Usually "bazooka" refers to more QE, lower rates. However in the context of upcoming inflation, do you mean by "bazooka 3.0" here the possibility BOE to raise rates? Thanks
Yes its referring to QE but for that we will need a drastic shift in macro numbers or a deep sell off in UK equites. None seem on the cards until next BOE.

Thats the tricky part for the BOE. Inflation with a massive wave to the downside on the horizon.

If it hikes (as it should from a strictly macro point of view) it runs the risk of triggering the selloff in Equities that with Brexit in play will be more than a simple pullback.

On the other hand, overstaying without hikes runs the risk of overheating the economy and a sharp rise in inflation that with brexit could trigger stagflation as early as next year.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,074
  • Jan 17, 2017 4:01pm Jan 17, 2017 4:01pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Despite "good" data and tick up in inflation, ECB confirming QE extension (although tapered) and rates, and showing some concerns about hard Brexit choice (growth/inflation in EZ) is the most probable imo and could lead to slight dovish comments for Euro. Expecting the flows to the downside to resume and Euro to sit at 1,049x/1,052x for Trump inauguration (or beyond with the dovish comments).
Music to my ears at the moment.
  • #147,075
  • Jan 17, 2017 4:43pm Jan 17, 2017 4:43pm
0714 for those using micros, has to be asia, otherwise fade for now.
  • #147,076
  • Jan 18, 2017 7:16am Jan 18, 2017 7:16am
Uneventful European session with inflation starting to pick up in the EZ but still below target. Eyes in reports for NY after as expected all FX markets returned to normal flows after yesterday news.

Not expecting much on the report front but rather US Equities finding foot on the opening range. Euro will take the driver seat until ECB from then onwards.

Not much to do but same levels, same trades, same all across the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,077
  • Jan 18, 2017 7:54am Jan 18, 2017 7:54am
Quoting sisse
Uneventful European session with inflation starting to pick up in the EZ but still below target. Eyes in reports for NY after as expected all FX markets returned to normal flows after yesterday news. Not expecting much on the report front but rather US Equities finding foot on the opening range. Euro will take the driver seat until ECB from then onwards. Not much to do but same levels, same trades, same all across the board. sisse
@sisse I know you don't like to chew the specific daily TA marks too much so just a quick question to check my understanding: Was it the break of 1.067x that hinted at unlocking 1.084 and the break of 1.068x yesterday that actually unlocked it? And will it remain unlocked unless we trade solidly below 1.058x ? A simple thumbs up or down on that would be appreciated as I don't want to bog discussion down with microloevel talk. Asked with the understanding that FA and coming news trumps these considerations anyway.
  • #147,078
  • Jan 18, 2017 9:32am Jan 18, 2017 9:32am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} @sisse I know you don't like to chew the specific daily TA marks too much so just a quick question to check my understanding: Was it the break of 1.067x that hinted at unlocking 1.084 and the break of 1.068x yesterday that actually unlocked it? And will it remain unlocked unless we trade solidly below 1.058x ? A simple thumbs up or down on that would be appreciated as I don't want to bog discussion down with microloevel talk. Asked with the understanding that FA and coming news trumps these considerations anyway.
Unlocked as in open for the trading range tomorrow ECB. The map is the same (check backpost for the chart)nothing has changed since FED hikes.

However until yesterday we had 1.066x capping the range for tomorrow. Now the range extends from the flip till the top... In outlook short you trade to the top to the outside,etc etc you know the rest.

On the good side, cheaper tickets may go on sale on the down side the retrace slow and bumpy as it has been, .It was tradable now in hindsight.

I personally don't think will get there as ECB is expected to be indifferent on the inflation and QE side but technically the top of the range is unlocked.

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,079
  • Jan 18, 2017 9:35am Jan 18, 2017 9:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Unlocked as in open for the trading range tomorrow ECB. The map is the same (check backpost for the chart)nothing has changed since FED hikes. However until yesterday we had 1.066x capping the range for tomorrow. Now the range extends from the flip till the top... In outlook short you trade to the top to the outside,etc etc you know the rest. On the good side, cheaper tickets may go on sale on the down side the retrace slow and bumpy as it has been, .It was tradable now in hindsight. I personally don't think will get there as ECB is expected...
It does. Thanks
  • #147,080
  • Jan 18, 2017 10:12am Jan 18, 2017 10:12am
what i think correct me if i am wrong ....

1) all micro level will be raised for the upcoming 2 events ecb + trump inauguration.
2) this time ecb without spike(top/bottom) is atleast not in my book.
3) a breach above 1.074x is pure air until 1.084x.

atleast me officially flat taking profit from yesterday's high till 1.066x .... and today also nothing to see .....
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