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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,541
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:19am Jan 17, 2017 7:19am
Quoting Lock
Some interesting levels for upcoming pit session could be below current price location: 23046 US daily bracket high (pre US high of 12.01). 23013 18.11.16 higher daily bracket pit low. 22886 new year pit open. 22242 yesterday pit high. Above: 23434 2016 pit close 23538 preUS daily bracket high (02.11.16). 23623 pit weekly balance low. 2433 pit new year high.
For now it bounced right here. If we get acceptation above this level we could aim at the opposite side of that bracket. (a very long run obviously, so I'm speaking about mid term participation for this to happen)
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  • #2,542
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:21am Jan 17, 2017 7:21am
Anyway, I think that the most important level is 23046 US daily bracket high (pre US high of 12.01) because here (above or below it) we could evaluate if we got acceptation above or below the current US daily bracket high. If we will have acceptation above we could aim higher, vice versa, if we will have rejection above that and acceptation below it we could eventually retrace downside the entire US bracket.
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  • #2,543
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:32am Jan 17, 2017 7:32am
Quoting Lock
Anyway, I think that the most important level is 23046 US daily bracket high (pre US high of 12.01) because here (above or below it) we could evaluate if we got acceptation above or below the current US daily bracket high. If we will have acceptation above we could aim higher, vice versa, if we will have rejection above that and acceptation below it we could eventually retrace downside the entire US bracket.

just an observation that the previous to sessions, Tokyo and UK, both have elongated profiles both with the close at the opposite end from POC and POV. The previous pit session is left with a suspended auction and Tokyo poor low.
  • #2,544
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:36am Jan 17, 2017 7:36am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} just an observation that the last to sessions, Tokyo and UK both have elongated profiles both with the close at the opposite end from POC and POV
what can we distillate out of this information?
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,545
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:38am Jan 17, 2017 7:38am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} just an observation that the last to sessions, Tokyo and UK both have elongated profiles both with the close at the opposite end from POC and POV

Correct. But remember that in a trend day price anticipates value. So in such case value is "less importent" At least for the current price action (meanig day timeframe perspective). Obviously the fact that price is acting well above value is a very important information and we got to carry this information forward. The extreme elongation is also a very important information and generally it undelines emotion more than new strong money entering a market.
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  • #2,546
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:39am Jan 17, 2017 7:39am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} what can we distillate out of this information?

I'm not sure, price has moved value has not.

I'm hoping Lock can comment.
  • #2,547
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:42am Jan 17, 2017 7:42am
Quoting Lock
Some interesting levels for upcoming pit session could be below current price location: 23046 US daily bracket high (pre US high of 12.01). 23013 18.11.16 higher daily bracket pit low. 22886 new year pit open. 22242 yesterday pit high. Above: 23434 2016 pit close 23538 preUS daily bracket high (02.11.16). 23623 pit weekly balance low. 2433 pit new year high.
Yesterday pit high is obviously at 2085 and not at 22242 that is 13.01 pit high: sorry for the typo. So for now we have a huge gap upside forming from yesterday pit high.
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  • #2,548
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:44am Jan 17, 2017 7:44am
Waiting for a retracement. At least until 1.2158.
  • #2,549
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:44am Jan 17, 2017 7:44am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} I'm not sure, price has moved value has not. I'm hoping Lock can comment.

I already commented it: in a trend day value is less important and price will anticipate it. So there are other things to consider in order to evaluate a possible continuation upside. Excess is one of them. A gap is a form of excess and we are currently building a huge one upwards. remember that anyway it is only 1 data point.
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  • #2,550
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:47am Jan 17, 2017 7:47am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Correct. But remember that in a trend day price anticipates value. So in such case value is "less importent" At least for the current price action (meanig day timeframe perspective). Obviously the fact that price is acting well above value is a very important information and we got to carry this information forward. The extreme elongation is also a very important information and generally it undelines emotion more than new strong money entering a market.
GB session looked more like "b" than new money (just my observations) it moved with out much conviction and has many anomalies as has the Tokyo sesh.

Anyway, price is where it is now and the market has options both down and up.

thanks for your reply Lock.
  • #2,551
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:53am Jan 17, 2017 7:53am
The higher closest composite poc is at 2417, in case of continuation upside. Note preUS poor high 2334: it only one data point but carry this information forward.
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  • #2,552
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:55am Jan 17, 2017 7:55am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} GB session looked more like "b" than new money (just my observations) it moved with out much conviction and has many anomalies as has the Tokyo sesh. Anyway, price is where it is now and the market has options both down and up. thanks for your reply Lock.

A "b " formation does not mean that the profile should only resemble to a "b" letter. A "b" formation means that price was higher, went down and there was no continuation downside, forming consequently a balance at the bottom of the profile. Here instead we got balance and then a break out upside.
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  • #2,553
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:57am Jan 17, 2017 7:57am
Quoting Lock
{quote} A "b " formation does not mean that the profile should only resemble like a "b" letter. A "b" formation means that price was higher, went down and there was no continuation downside, forming consequently a balance at the bottom of the profile. Here instead we got balance and then a break out upside.
yes. I did originally say it looked like a short covering but it's not that either. there was something about the way price moved that looked very uncomfortable that I'm trying to grasp. maybe i's just a trend and that's it!
  • #2,554
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:58am Jan 17, 2017 7:58am
Quoting Lock
The higher closest composite poc is at 2417, in case of continuation upside. Note preUS poor high 2334: it only one data point but carry this information forward.

Remember that a poor high or a poor low could mean two different things: an auction incomplete in one particular direction is one of this meanings. Onother one is that we could have no more buyers or sellers and that the auction went too long or too short to continue immediately. So a poor high, like in this case could mean that the auction is incomplete upside but also that it went to long in order to continue and it needs some liquidation before to go up again. Watch out and try to understand which of the two could be the current one.
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  • #2,555
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:00am Jan 17, 2017 8:00am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} yes. I did originally say it looked like a short covering but it's not that either. there was something about the way price moved that looked very uncomfortable that I'm trying to grasp. maybe i's just a trend and that's it!

I do not like this move a t all too. There is too emotion in it. At the same time: do not fade a trend day unless some change will occur.
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  • #2,556
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:26am Jan 17, 2017 8:26am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I do not like this move a t all too. There is too emotion in it. At the same time: do not fade a trend day unless some change will occur.

And in fact... Now I'm off. I will see later. What ever it will do this is not my game. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
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  • #2,557
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:33am Jan 17, 2017 8:33am
will happily take a long here. don't see any signs of exhaustion. stop 1.23. will be hard to retest 1.23 this week.
  • #2,558
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:08am Jan 17, 2017 10:08am
23888 - I made a note here -- December's lowest close.
  • #2,559
  • Jan 18, 2017 1:59am Jan 18, 2017 1:59am
Quoting Lock
The higher closest composite poc is at 2417, in case of continuation upside. Note preUS poor high 2334: it only one data point but carry this information forward.
Note that pit session went up just 2 pips short of this level, establishing a very poor high at 24145.
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  • #2,560
  • Jan 18, 2017 2:10am Jan 18, 2017 2:10am
17/01/18 WEDNESDAY 09:10+1GMT
MORNING REPORT

We are now back inside the monthly balance: we are infact above December low at 2200. We are also now in a weekly balance as yesterday took out the last week high interrupting for the second time the weekly mid term one timeframing lower action. And we are inside yesterday GB range but well above yesterday GB spike base at 2186. This last level is our most important one for today GB session being the best support for any possible correction downside. (if any) Yesterday GB made a huge short covering and as you see Tokyo spent its entire session liquidating some of the upside move. We have no completion for pit session that as written made a very poor high also tagging the highest pit close of this year 2413 (note yesterday pit close 1 single pip below this level.

We do not have completion below too, where we left 2 back to back GB poor lows. And this is the main reason I consider yesterday activity as short covering and not new money buying. But I think that at least the short term traders have been caught short in the hole, because this covering removed 7 days of activity downside. Considering the extreme elongation of the GB profile I do not think we could have longer timeframes involved in it but considering the huge volume the participation of mid term ones is not excluded.
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