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  • #147,041
  • Jan 17, 2017 6:53am Jan 17, 2017 6:53am
In any case: on ST E/U Im not sure about the recent flow but I expect the price to sit on the flip for ECB (in case there are no huge suprises from CPI US/EU side tomorrow).
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  • #147,042
  • Jan 17, 2017 6:55am Jan 17, 2017 6:55am
...and Sterling taking out final remaining position on the tick to the 1.23xx handle. A rather soft trade while it lasted ...back to square one in GU.

Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Have you got an target for the GPB and the USD now? The bottom of the GPB and the bottom of the euro/USD
We are here:

Quoting sisse
...important update from Sterling. We have the potential day for 'the scheduled' game changer in the UK: --> Changing short term outlook in Sterling from sell to aggressive sell till [check] .... Thereafter expecting the mid term play to kick start [BOE to trigger this via inflation [ rates ] but after today speech is a big ask]. ... Sterling to form a solid bottom while swapping the trading aim to UK Equities (FTSE). For now ....very jittery thin air ad for those holding shorts is trailling time as any tick below the 1.22xx [check]...
We ticked 1.19xx on the expectation play for Article 50 but we couldn't test the lows. Now back to the break out with 1.22xx as the rain maker prolly for the rest of the year in Sterling ...We'll have the picture clear with the BOE later. Mid and long term is exactly as detailed in the yearly outlook and the posts after....

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,043
  • Jan 17, 2017 7:59am Jan 17, 2017 7:59am
How much of a fundamental game changer is it when the US president talks the dollar down? Think I need to be scrapping my map altogether right now and starting over. Lost.
  • #147,044
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:08am Jan 17, 2017 8:08am
Quoting goosebone
How much of a fundamental game changer is it when the US president talks the dollar down? Think I need to be scrapping my map altogether right now and starting over. Lost.
Im not sure whether it matters that much what he says right now about the dollar - I think it basically does NOT matter - plus I do not think he has any clue about macroeconomy/mics. What matters is what hes gonna actually do as far as his executive policies goes and how it translates to the value of dollar.
  • #147,045
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:10am Jan 17, 2017 8:10am
Quoting goosebone
How much of a fundamental game changer is it when the US president talks the dollar down? Think I need to be scrapping my map altogether right now and starting over. Lost.
Hah debt king strikes again. His comments about China driving CNY on porpuse down are ridiculous, looks like there should be someone in his cabinet explaining to him some stuff. He is walking very dangerous walk by the way, when going against deep establishment macros it often ends bad no matter who you are.
  • #147,046
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:10am Jan 17, 2017 8:10am
Quoting sisse
...and Sterling taking out final remaining position on the tick to the 1.23xx handle. A rather soft trade while it lasted ...back to square one in GU.
Sisse, if I understood correctly you closed your long position in the pound? Did you open it during May's speech (the last short term outlook for pound was aggressive sell before the speech).
Thanks
  • #147,047
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:13am Jan 17, 2017 8:13am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Im not sure whether it matters that much what he says right now about the dollar - I think it basically does NOT matter - plus I do not think he has any clue about macroeconomy/mics. What matters is what hes gonna actually do as far as his executive policies goes and how it translates to the value of dollar.
Reminds me of a gold bugs, if your only tool is a hammer then you make every problem look like a nail.
  • #147,048
  • Edited 8:26am Jan 17, 2017 8:15am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Im not sure whether it matters that much what he says right now about the dollar - personally I do not think he has any clue about macroeconomy/mics. What matters is what hes gonna actually do as far as his executive policies goes and how it translates to the value of dollar.
I guess I have a basic misunderstanding about why eu is retracing it's steps right now as opposed to Thursday/Friday. If we are looking at risk off due to UK why a dollar dip? What, if not Trump comments last night is driving USD? I understand these are not huge moves in eu and not unexpected levels at all, just don't get the timing I guess.
Is it simple like this: risk off out of equities and into treasuries driving price up/yields down and dollar down with yields?
Or are you saying market now more convinced he will f it all up leads to no confidence in dollar/us economy ?
Or both
  • #147,049
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:28am Jan 17, 2017 8:28am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I guess I have a basic misunderstanding about why eu is retracing it's steps right now as opposed to Thursday/Friday. If we are looking at risk off due to UK why a dollar dip? What, if not Trump comments last night is driving USD? I understand these are not huge moves in eu and not unexpected levels at all, just don't get the timing I guess. Is it simple like this: risk off out of equities and into treasuries driving price up/yields down and dollar down with yields?
I would say its very very soft risk-off carry trade. If you look on DAX it was on microrampage during/right after Mays speech - unline UK100 - so seems money were moving out of GB to Eurozone =) Euro up.

However, its true that the dollar weakness happened prior to May. So there may some micro-Trump comments (Merkel vs. Trump comments) effect Im not sure. In any case. If ones trades short or mid term, does not have to depend on precise analysis of these microflows. However, always good to know whats going on soo if one has more complex explanation, more than welcomed to share
  • #147,050
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:33am Jan 17, 2017 8:33am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I would say its very very soft risk-off carry trade. If you look on DAX it was on microrampage during/right after Mays speech - unline UK100 - so seems money were moving out of GB to Eurozone =) Euro up. However, its true that the dollar weakness happened prior to May. So there may some micro-Trump comments (Merkel vs. Trump comments) effect Im not sure. In any case. If ones trades short or mid term, does not have to depend on precise analysis of these microflows. However, always good to know whats going on soo if one has more complex...
I'm too close again I guess. Expensive tickets tend to make you pick up the zoom lens. Thanks
  • #147,051
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:45am Jan 17, 2017 8:45am
Let NY enter and get back the EU to it's better level ... NY on holidays from Friday ...
May just managed a way to uplift sterling for a short term ... But ruined it for mid and long term ... In any case we will resume the trend in all the major FX board according to the midterm leg nothing has changed at all ... But just s/o in my 4 trades ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,052
  • Jan 17, 2017 9:30am Jan 17, 2017 9:30am
I have some problems understanding ths rally in GPB. May is saying she wants the hard deal not the light deal we have in Norway. She wants full Control.

That the parliment will decide this it must be.. It is not abouth the decision abouth leaving the eurosone that has to be decided but the size of the deal. It is not posible to do it in an other way.

Think it will goo down to 1.2285 in the first place
  • #147,053
  • Jan 17, 2017 9:48am Jan 17, 2017 9:48am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Im not sure whether it matters that much what he says right now about the dollar - I think it basically does NOT matter - plus I do not think he has any clue about macroeconomy/mics. What matters is what hes gonna actually do as far as his executive policies goes and how it translates to the value of dollar.
And that is interesting The man that speaks a lot quicker then he thinks has from what I understand so far declared (trade) war against most off the world except UK and Russia. I thrust that he will manage to piss them off to soon ( or opposite ) . Even if it looks nice for now.

I think nothing change for the Dollar until numbers from he's politic start to show up in the reports. Anyway we dont need to guess much how it possible can end. The good thing is that he actually is good to select people . At least some. , Yeah, I think it is smart to wait and see how it translates to the value of dollar as you say .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,054
  • Jan 17, 2017 9:56am Jan 17, 2017 9:56am
Quoting MarianneOslo
I have some problems understanding ths rally in GPB. May is saying she wants the hard deal not the light deal we have in Norway. She wants full Control. That the parliment will decide this it must be.. It is not abouth the decision abouth leaving the eurosone that has to be decided but the size of the deal. It is not posible to do it in an other way. Think it will goo down to 1.2285 in the first place
It is a ugly Squeeze
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,055
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:01am Jan 17, 2017 10:01am
It's expectations that matters. Market wants to position for what is coming from Trumpenomics. All we got to go on is what he says. And he says a lot. He can swing large cap stock prices up or down with a tweet. He can do the same with currencies (ask the peso) even USD. Just the fact that he talks about it at all is somewhat radical and gets a reaction. Makes it more difficult to get ahead of those who are trying to get ahead of him.
I want to believe that cooler heads prevail but it gets hard to find any cooler heads when politics is driving.

What are the chances this gu action ends up a long wick on the week/month?
  • #147,056
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:05am Jan 17, 2017 10:05am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
EU D1

if you think about cheap tickets , think about yearly and monthly pivots

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green pips to all
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #147,057
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:16am Jan 17, 2017 10:16am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} It is a ugly Squeeze

.es do agree but to me it seems to have topped for a while and we see an retrace. Last night in NYC higest Level was 1.2224 and ended ddwn to 1,204 last night
do it should be som gap down here
  • #147,058
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:19am Jan 17, 2017 10:19am
Quoting goosebone
It's expectations that matters. Market wants to position for what is coming from Trumpenomics. All we got to go on is what he says. And he says a lot. He can swing large cap stock prices up or down with a tweet. He can do the same with currencies (ask the peso) even USD. Just the fact that he talks about it at all is somewhat radical and gets a reaction. Makes it more difficult to get ahead of those who are trying to get ahead of him. I want to believe that cooler heads prevail but it gets hard to find any cooler heads when politics is driving....
It's going to be unbearable to trade in this environment.
  • #147,059
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:24am Jan 17, 2017 10:24am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} .es do agree but to me it seems to have topped for a while and we see an retrace. Last night in NYC higest Level was 1.2224 and ended ddwn to 1,204 last night do it should be som gap down here
I think it's just markets selling the news, there was nothing new in her speech, roughly all was expected. And inflation data is helping too. Lets see what will happen around 1.244x.
  • #147,060
  • Jan 17, 2017 10:44am Jan 17, 2017 10:44am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} I think it's just markets selling the news, there was nothing new in her speech, roughly all was expected. And inflation data is helping too. Lets see what will happen around 1.244x.
Also much off the Rally is from the USD side. USDX has broken below 100.6 ( currently at 100.3 ) Hope it dont close below today.
Trading in the shadow of SM
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