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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,961
  • Jan 12, 2017 1:20pm Jan 12, 2017 1:20pm
Quoting sisse
...important update from Sterling. We have the potential day for 'the scheduled' game changer in the UK: --> Changing short term outlook in Sterling from sell to aggressive sell till the BOE. Expecting exactly what it was mentioned in the yearly forecast. First lots of empty air and wide volatility till the day of the announcement and then to complete a final exhaustion leg aiming to the last lows and bit below for the BOE. Thereafter expecting the mid term play to kick start. We'll discuss details later but in a nutshell expecting Sterling to form...
GBP - UK100 yes. Your last posted short term view DAX was bull so i am guessing you might disagree (unless the HH completed that), i see it symetrical play to UK100 (not mid or long term), but still first needs fresh LL 11500ish to play on that otherwise neutral.
  • #146,962
  • Jan 12, 2017 1:45pm Jan 12, 2017 1:45pm
Quoting chester123
It can be top of W and M, however I still see a posiibility higher. see the MT chart - is can go to ST top and a little bit beyond I would say.to form a shooting star next W. Screenshot3.png;2137459 {image}
As always, very nice charting!

I'm locked and loaded for the capitulation move on EURUSD. It won't happen overnight, but surely all the reasons mentioned above will add pressure to the EUR. Additional sell stops enabled to be picked up on the way down. In the case of another move up, I'll be out though.

Not sure who's in the driver's seat at the moment, EUR or USD? I guess short term we have yellen in a couple of hours (says high impact but I doubt anything special will be happening) and after that ECB next week might deliver a punch to the EURO (or not).
  • #146,963
  • Jan 12, 2017 3:33pm Jan 12, 2017 3:33pm
Would like a eu close under 606/600.
  • #146,964
  • Jan 12, 2017 3:43pm Jan 12, 2017 3:43pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} GBP - UK100 yes. Your last posted short term view DAX was bull so i am guessing you might disagree (unless the HH completed that), i see it symetrical play to UK100 (not mid or long term), but still first needs fresh LL 11500ish to play on that otherwise neutral.
FTSE is deep in the exhaustion leg. We'll squeeze every single drop out of the current leg until Brexit jitter first (next couple of weeks), BOE hikes later via inflation and we enter in those dead rubber months of nothingness but spike gossip on every tweet on the populist politicians negotiating the future of the UK until [France] Germany clear the European political board...

DAX and EZ Equities are a bit different than the rest. They wont hold alone without the US on board and with the UK selling off but will hold a lot better. First the macro numbers are strong now and there is a huge gap to cover to match those numbers in the real economy and stock markets and more importantly the have a full extra year of ECB support and free money..... Obviously it will get constrain by Brexit first, European election later and US equites entering in the full RMT for hikes....

Equities in the US and EZ don't need anything else from both the TA and FA. There is a 'final' but not mandatory push pending already long overdue for a few weeks before Full Rates Mode in the US enter in the picture late February so as long as we hold, there is very little to do but sit tight and go with the herd until new data ...

sisse

Quoting ExForX
{quote}...Not sure who's in the driver's seat at the moment, EUR or USD? ....
Dollar no discussion about it. Euro is happily staying on the backseat without breaking down...the longer we stay above 1.05xx the better for the ECB as the extreme German hawks are already worrying about inflation because we ticked 0.01 up las mont but still below the target ...you know the Germans with inflation ....

Don't forget that end of QE and first RMT expectations in in the Euro are coming for late Q3t this year already (and that will be the bottom if Europe doesn't disintegrate in chaos before...)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,965
  • Jan 12, 2017 4:41pm Jan 12, 2017 4:41pm
...and we rolled ...surprise surprise 1.061x ??? not really isn't it @goosebone...

Slightly bearish close but with bulls still holding the upper hand ... not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all across the board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,966
  • Edited 5:09pm Jan 12, 2017 4:51pm | Edited 5:09pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled ...surprise surprise 1.061x ??? not really isn't it @goosebone... Slightly bearish close but with bulls still holding the upper hand ... not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all across the board... sisse
Heh. Yeah. Instead of running, jumping and grabbing the back bumper of the bus on its way by, it's a little easier to wait for it to turn around at the end of the line, stop in front of you and use the damn door like a civilized person.

Bulls with the upper hand over 058x even better for bears closing under 053x. Bulls need to maintain above 610 down to 580. That's what I got in the very short term.
  • #146,967
  • Jan 13, 2017 1:48am Jan 13, 2017 1:48am
trying to load some near 1.065xx....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,968
  • Jan 13, 2017 2:20am Jan 13, 2017 2:20am
Quoting primejarvis
trying to load some near 1.065xx....
why? clear path is 1.084x

Too many getting impatience and itchy for trades.
  • #146,969
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:33am Jan 13, 2017 3:33am
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} why? clear path is 1.084x Too many getting impatience and itchy for trades.
Technical on smaller TF it trends up. No doubt about that. But look higher TF. We are in a golden zone for trend continuation to the down side. And there is now planned tweets or news conferences from the President elect today.

( I was reading somewhere that Reagan could use days to think about what to say in news conferences, Obama often use hours. The President elect use nano seconds it looks like, will be interesting 4 years )

I will try to trade the news today ( to the short side and possible against expectation on the structure analysis on 1H charts ) I target USD index to around 105 level that I posted before.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 33 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,970
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:33am Jan 13, 2017 3:33am
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} why? clear path is 1.084x Too many getting impatience and itchy for trades.
i am not getting itchy or greedy i am just talking about my levels for the day .... 100% chances of getting failed but will take a chance ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,971
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:46am Jan 13, 2017 3:46am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Technical on smaller TF it trends up. No doubt about that. But look higher TF. We are in a golden zone for trend continuation to the down side. And there is now planned tweets or news conferences from the President elect today. ( I was reading somewhere that Reagan could use days to think about what to say in news conferences, Obama often use hours. The President elect use nano seconds it looks like, will be interesting 4 years ) I will try to trade the news today ( to the short side and possible against expectation on the structure...
Hahaha,,,so true. Forget FEDs website or live feed, we have new account to follow for market. But hey markets are changing, liquidity is pressing in. We had algos stepping up the speed, president is aligning to it aswell. Two decades forward perhaps we will get feeds of thoughts non written or verbalized on some sort of world wide platform.
  • #146,972
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:49am Jan 13, 2017 3:49am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} i am not getting itchy or greedy i am just talking about my levels for the day .... 100% chances of getting failed but will take a chance ....
Gotcha

Thoughts on this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e.u outlook.JPG Size: 182 KB
  • #146,973
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:56am Jan 13, 2017 3:56am
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} Gotcha Thoughts on this? e.u outlook.JPG;2138919 {image}
try to get your map aligned with chester123's one it will really help you out defining the proper r:r and the flow ..... its just 1 -2 pages back ....try it ..
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,974
  • Jan 13, 2017 4:44am Jan 13, 2017 4:44am
Quoting primejarvis
trying to load some near 1.065xx....
Quoting Earleone
{quote}... I will try to trade the news today ( to the short side and possible against expectation on the structure analysis on 1H charts ) I target USD index to around 105 level that I posted before. {image} {image}
Same plan here, expecting inflation data to kill that leg. If not, Theresa Mays speech on tuesday will imo.
  • #146,975
  • Jan 13, 2017 5:20am Jan 13, 2017 5:20am
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} why? clear path is 1.084x Too many getting impatience and itchy for trades.
a touch and a rejection of the YPP will be a perfect scenario
  • #146,976
  • Jan 13, 2017 5:38am Jan 13, 2017 5:38am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} Same plan here, expecting inflation data to kill that leg. If not, Theresa Mays speech on tuesday will imo.
lets c how it pans out .... patience is the keyword .... myself loaded and locked ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,977
  • Jan 13, 2017 7:02am Jan 13, 2017 7:02am
That was it for the European session in an uneventful day. Eyes on US reports to close the week. Consumer confidence at 14 years highs so not expecting much even with a soft flop but just a confirmation on the same trend....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,978
  • Jan 13, 2017 7:22am Jan 13, 2017 7:22am
Lets see what the news bring. I dont expect firework. But will put a sell stop 10 pips below 1.0670 if touched. And a sell limit at zig zag 1.0605 if it moves in correct direction after news and breakes 1.06 and come up again. ( Scalp entrys with 25 pips SL )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 32 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,979
  • Jan 13, 2017 7:33am Jan 13, 2017 7:33am
shORTED EU 659 and just added 635, tight stop on lower one. UCAD Long 3130 looking for mild squeeze for shorts dollar and then lets see what it decides on top of range where to go.

EDIT: And thats about it took little profits out the rest all BE sled. No direct followtrough, micro squeeze only. Paying now close attention to intraday dollar and ECAD for flip play.
  • #146,980
  • Edited 7:52am Jan 13, 2017 7:40am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting Earleone
Lets see what the news bring. I dont expect firework. But will put a sell stop 10 pips below 1.0670 if touched. And a sell limit at zig zag 1.0605 if it moves in correct direction after news and breakes 1.06 and come up again. ( Scalp entrys with 25 pips SL ) {image}
Got filled 1.06615 , took out 1/3 of position at 1.0625 and has reduced SL to above the spike high so BE + a few pips is locked in . Are careful since it is against the short term and it is friday . No TP target for the rest for now. Let it run to SL or it becomes a longer term position if it survive.
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