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  • #101
  • Jan 12, 2017 4:13am Jan 12, 2017 4:13am
indeed, but I bought the UJ instead...no matter...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #102
  • Jan 12, 2017 4:18am Jan 12, 2017 4:18am
Quoting PayTheLimit
indeed, but I bought the UJ instead...no matter...
expecting a drop from here to a new low .... usd/chf also made a double bottom on D1 which almost runs opposite to eu .... lets c whether it will confirm the double bottom ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #103
  • Jan 12, 2017 4:22am Jan 12, 2017 4:22am
on weekly tf of eu also its trying to make a bullish harmonic butterfly which i have read somewhere while i was a newbie in this game (i.e., 5 - 6 years back) ...

dont know how much is that applicable ....

and this creepy smileys just doesnt gets loaded ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #104
  • Jan 12, 2017 4:29am Jan 12, 2017 4:29am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} expecting a drop from here to a new low .... usd/chf also made a double bottom on D1 which almost runs opposite to eu .... lets c whether it will confirm the double bottom ....
lot of levels to choose from lately, but I'm trading larger for scalps, and its working better for the time being....keep some powder dry and your options open...looking at 7530 in the AUD, and 1.2238 in cable next..flat the yen already...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #105
  • Jan 12, 2017 4:39am Jan 12, 2017 4:39am
in the EY..120.85 looks like a spot to try some quick longs...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #106
  • Jan 12, 2017 4:44am Jan 12, 2017 4:44am
Quoting PayTheLimit
in the EY..120.85 looks like a spot to try some quick longs...
hmm ... gold might also get hammered .... same pattern getting formed like eu .... on D1
Re-Incarnated
  • #107
  • Jan 12, 2017 6:07am Jan 12, 2017 6:07am
Quoting primejarvis
on weekly tf of eu also its trying to make a bullish harmonic butterfly which i have read somewhere while i was a newbie in this game (i.e., 5 - 6 years back) ... dont know how much is that applicable .... and this creepy smileys just doesnt gets loaded ....
interesting that you mentioned a butterfly pattern. i was also thinking about it the other day. looks yet to be completed, though. the 127.2% retracement of 1.0461 to 1.1713 is at 1.0120. there is a previous structure support at 1.0112. that's a level i am looking at longer term. might not get there in months.

eu monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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not a lot of follow through for eu since breaking below that multi year range last month. might want to test the middle of that range again.
  • #108
  • Jan 12, 2017 8:05am Jan 12, 2017 8:05am
Quoting chibai73
{quote} interesting that you mentioned a butterfly pattern. i was also thinking about it the other day. looks yet to be completed, though. the 127.2% retracement of 1.0461 to 1.1713 is at 1.0120. there is a previous structure support at 1.0112. that's a level i am looking at longer term. might not get there in months. eu monthly 2017112-54956.jpg;2137234 not a lot of follow through for eu since breaking below that multi year range last month. might want to test the middle of that range again. {image}
you might have noticed it earlier also as no 127.2% or 161.8% works in all this ..... its all about demand and supply @ a particular level near the 127.2% or 161.8% .... i hope it helps .... and do correct me if i am wrong .... in your view
Re-Incarnated
  • #109
  • Jan 12, 2017 8:24am Jan 12, 2017 8:24am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} you might have noticed it earlier also as no 127.2% or 161.8% works in all this ..... its all about demand and supply @ a particular level near the 127.2% or 161.8% .... i hope it helps .... and do correct me if i am wrong .... in your view
you are absolutely right. fibs are just guides. ultimately they all go back to support and resistance levels.
  • #110
  • Jan 12, 2017 8:34am Jan 12, 2017 8:34am
Quoting chibai73
{quote} you are absolutely right. fibs are just guides. ultimately they all go back to support and resistance levels.
Hmm ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #111
  • Jan 12, 2017 8:35am Jan 12, 2017 8:35am
hmmm...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #112
  • Jan 12, 2017 8:55am Jan 12, 2017 8:55am
Quoting PayTheLimit
hmmm...
Bloody hell I cannot put smiley ... Only know one smiley that is .. have to learn more ... Don't know why it doesn't gets loaded in my browser
Re-Incarnated
  • #113
  • Jan 12, 2017 9:15am Jan 12, 2017 9:15am
...
Re-Incarnated
  • #114
  • Jan 12, 2017 11:20pm Jan 12, 2017 11:20pm
Hey man, hope you had a good Christmas break and all is well. I think we're in for some better trading times in the coming months & years. Shit will happen.

Speaking of levels, one I watch is that VIX = 10....chart is 20 years of monthly sausages, VIX only been below 10 maybe a few times. Wtf? That is the f'n mother of all levels, right there. Anyway, when the VIX is stumbling along just above the 10 handle, I need throw some money at it. VIX, VXX, UVXY, /VX, whatever....it'll scud along down there for months but sooner or later shit will happen and it will pop to 25 or 30 maybe even higher.

This is really the only trade I know how to do. Gonna put it on my tombstone: "He was long VIX".....poor sucker...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #115
  • Edited 11:42pm Jan 12, 2017 11:31pm | Edited 11:42pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey man, hope you had a good Christmas break and all is well. I think we're in for some better trading times in the coming months & years. Shit will happen. Speaking of levels, one I watch is that VIX = 10....chart is 20 years of monthly sausages, VIX only been below 10 maybe a few times. Wtf? That is the f'n mother of all levels, right there. Anyway, when the VIX is stumbling along just above the 10 handle, I need throw some money at it. VIX, VXX, UVXY, /VX, whatever....it'll scud along down there for months but sooner or later shit will happen...
Hey man, hope you had a good Xmas yourself. These equity markets are designed to go up it seems, and why wouldn't they be. I sure hope your right about some vol picking it, cause man its been like squeezing water from a stone. Hate to think what some of those poor spu traders have been going through. Anyway, I like your reasoning, it seems cheap. But how is the market structured, I mean if you go out a ways, how much more expensive is that VIX?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #116
  • Jan 13, 2017 12:11am Jan 13, 2017 12:11am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I mean if you go out a ways, how much more expensive is that VIX?
well there are cheap ways to play long vol, but if you face facts & realize you will prolly be losing everything you bet, then none are cheap enough.

Seriously though, the surest thing in the world is shorting the VIX spikes, but that ain't so easy to do, either. I had good setups on the 2 big elections in 2016 - those were awesome because you knew the date and you knew it many months in advance, giving you time to build a hideous contraption of a trade if you wanted to.

I think the eurozone developments will be the big chance for vol pops in 2017, but it's not so easy to call. I think we will see the best of the US stocks in Q1/Q2, maybe around the French elections bastards will want to be gone to cash.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #117
  • Jan 13, 2017 2:13am Jan 13, 2017 2:13am
gonna try some AUD shorts at 7530ish...

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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #118
  • Jan 13, 2017 2:28am Jan 13, 2017 2:28am
also gonna try 138.45 in the GBPJPY for a scalp....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #119
  • Jan 13, 2017 2:56am Jan 13, 2017 2:56am
where is the R in the yen now I wonder....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #120
  • Jan 13, 2017 2:59am Jan 13, 2017 2:59am
and I mean the good resistance...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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