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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,901
  • Jan 11, 2017 7:26am Jan 11, 2017 7:26am
Quoting janpec1000
And here we go, Bitcoin briefly printing above 1k on certain exhanges, 20% gain in no time on China flows. 2017 -20 opening some new historical lessons for capital flight and "black market" usage. Large macro target on BTC is much higher than where we are now with very likely pop above all time highs, but it would still be interesting to see how Chinese "ban" of BTC plays out once domino effect in China enters next phase. Some rollercoster bear retraces are likely. Kicking exchanges out is one, but having depositors to still fly to it without...
So it begins. Chinese regulators officially launching war against cryptos. BTC tanking hard. Same play since 2013, wait for large dip and buy on micro.
  • #146,902
  • Jan 11, 2017 7:46am Jan 11, 2017 7:46am
Quoting Earleone
A method with high probability . Counting the Swing high / Low. . If we include a new level to HH LH LL HL named NSH and NSL ( NSH = New structure high , NSL = New structure low ) Kind of ZigZag counting with expectations. When a NSH or NSL is made make the expectation that a NSH always is followed by a HL for a new NSH and a NSL always is followed by a LH we will on most timeframes have a accuracy between 70 and 90% ( depending on instrument , trending etc ) . I attach a chart on 1H timeframe and daily for EURUSD here. Looking at 4H or higher we...
And we got an expectation failure on 1h chart and is again in correct direction for eurusd according to outlook for smaller TF to ( 1H ) . 1.0630 should hold now ( last NSH ) . Will wait out and see where this NSL finally will be ( swing low on 1h ) before planning new short positions.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,903
  • Edited 9:19am Jan 11, 2017 8:41am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting sisse
@goosebone and all others interested. Here is a record of a capitulation move in the ES. Try to not only pay attention to audio itself but try putting the chart next to it (map it) (if you have a reply function in your platform even better) so you can see what it's a capitulation move from the TA point of view. Pay attention to the levels taken on each second especially when we take the momentum area and then on the final gasp (after +/- min 2:00)and how a capitulation...
Thats some high end porn there. Closest I ever got to that feeling was GU on June 23 (a drop in that ocean obv) Makes capitulation/momentum much clearer as a concept to watch an extreme example in action on the chart like that so thanks for posting the video.

Edit: speaking of GU....
  • #146,904
  • Jan 11, 2017 10:05am Jan 11, 2017 10:05am
lets see what he is upto ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,905
  • Jan 11, 2017 10:54am Jan 11, 2017 10:54am
shorted @ 1.0539x s/l 1.0555xx ... just another creepy level lets c
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,906
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:04pm Jan 11, 2017 12:04pm
Wide volatility across the currency board for the European close with Dollar having a tweet zigzag shake out via Trump. At the end a rather flatfish day from Europe, however, OIL look to ready to go after the new US president and co will have a killer years... A shameful show really from the US, now that the Trump Tower seem to have become the 'pillar of democracy' in the free world....

Politics aside, Euro in the exact same position as we start ... eyeballing 1.066x if the current highs are taken... nothing to see but same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,907
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:11pm Jan 11, 2017 12:11pm
What is going on???? Any big news??
  • #146,908
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:12pm Jan 11, 2017 12:12pm
Hmm spike up...
  • #146,909
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:13pm Jan 11, 2017 12:13pm
Quoting goosebone
Took a eu short at 607 last night. Very light. Stop at 670. I'll take half off at 545 if I get it. Entering slow. If we get <545 then back up near that entry and I don't stop out I'll add more. If south from here, well I'll have a tiny ticket for the ride down. At these prices I won't buy a big one. I don't think she's done climbing. But if I'm wrong about that it'd be OK. If I'm right the stop won't hurt too much. And if we bounce around in the tight 520/650 mini range it may be an opportunity to build a small short position where it's a little...
Added. Same levels.
  • #146,910
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:28pm Jan 11, 2017 12:28pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Added. Same levels.
whats the hurry ? ... let me give you a very specific hint. Whatever was your trigger, you need to apply common sense first and in this particular case you 'CAN be a DICK for a tick' .

After such a wide zigzag intraday and with Europe already gone what makes you think it will move 150 ticks down -> 150 up and back down again -> in 2 hours left? Price is moving on a 'tweet' not a macro news/report or game changer...

Let's assume your entry area is 100% correct (thats not the issue on this point) instead of enter blindly after such spike against the flow just wait at least until the roll. It doesn't really matter the level at close what I am hinting you is about timing to minimise risk in thin markets.

If you already decided to got in, be smart. Fade today highs tomorrow instead after the close or set a stop sell in case the very unexpected happens and we take 1.052x down again.

Whats the worst you can miss? ....crumbs ....what can you avoid? getting crush on a spike running stops at the current highs...

Its going to be very close today ....GL.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,911
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:45pm Jan 11, 2017 12:45pm
Sisse a question isn't this algorithmic trading ... ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,912
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:54pm Jan 11, 2017 12:54pm
Quoting primejarvis
Sisse a question isn't this algorithmic trading ... ?
Probably yes giving time and reasons.

Interesting this time we were literally inches away from Euro to wipe the lows on the close. Gossip after the fact is some very large US banks holding short Dollar were hanging on air and stepped in before a wipe out....take it as it come as is only gossips ...

Algos or not the area in play in Dollar is clear for every single market participant in the world....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,913
  • Edited 1:43pm Jan 11, 2017 1:19pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} whats the hurry ? ... let me give you a very specific hint. Whatever was your trigger, you need to apply common sense first and in this particular case you 'CAN be a DICK for a tick' . After such a wide zigzag intraday and with Europe already gone what makes you think it will move 150 ticks down -> 150 up and back down again -> in 2 hours left? Price is moving on a 'tweet' not a macro news/report or game changer... Let's assume your entry area is 100% correct (thats not the issue on this point) instead of enter blindly after such spike against...
Good advice as usual. And the hints are not wasted on me. A simple explanation of my thinking (not meant to be defensive, quite the opposite) is just that I made a plan so I decided I should see it through. I should be more flexible as events change. Fine line between conviction and stubbornness.
  • #146,914
  • Jan 11, 2017 1:31pm Jan 11, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} EMs beginning short term moves with decent drops across TRY CNH and ZAR. Closing partial profits on UZAR longs a bit shy away from 8100 leaving the rest afloat for 8300. Nice move also on GBP with 2200 done deal on GU and no surprise on the break. Not tracking anything else for today.
Superb day on EMs TPing TRY MXN shorts leaving 20% afloat for higher targets. ZAR completing 8300 with overperformance spike, closing all the rest of ZAR shorts.
All along the catalysts with expected short term crashes delivered.

Wasnt tracking markets for last several hours, GU after invalidating higher levels from 2180 tap (and so well delivered crack of 2100) actually opened excellent squeeze trough dollar actions wasnt there to catch some entries. Really good short term/mild squeeze not the kind you want to miss. 2180-20 was naked once again and done deal.
  • #146,915
  • Jan 11, 2017 1:42pm Jan 11, 2017 1:42pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Good advice as usual. A simple explanation of my thinking (not meant to be defensive, quite the opposite) is just that I made a plan so I decided I should see it through. I should be more flexible as events change. Fine line between conviction and stubbornness.
Sure. It's very good you stick to your guns. Definitely a good symptom.

Point was to highlight the difference between an entry base on a expected news/ report or break/fade TA alone an another is recognising a tweet move in thin markets.

Is not about the entry itself but in how to minimize risk on common sense.

Let's see how it goes till the close. So far Euro flat as pancake for the day in a wide itraday range.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,916
  • Jan 11, 2017 2:56pm Jan 11, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sure. It's very good you stick to your guns. Definitely a good symptom. Point was to highlight the difference between an entry base on a expected news/ report or break/fade TA alone an another is recognising a tweet move in thin markets. Is not about the entry itself but in how to minimize risk on common sense. Let's see how it goes till the close. So far Euro flat as pancake for the day in a wide itraday range. sisse
by pure price action experience , this move is to run stops through 1.066x provided closes stay above 1.055x in the upcoming hours . from there one is to scale in with proper r:r , let's hope this wide range settles for a direction soon enough , intraday moves are irritating with such headlines/tweets going all over the place.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,917
  • Jan 11, 2017 3:04pm Jan 11, 2017 3:04pm
Another very flat but extremely shaky day this time in Dollar. Early in the week Treasuries then GOLD ...anybody still have doubts that big moves are cooking.?

Quoting sisse
{quote} ...Yearly overview .... Expecting Euro to stay in the back seat ...we extended the yearly lows but couldn't break them signalling volatility about to increase in the next few weeks [check] with a rather bullish close for the year. 1.049x is the rain maker [in play] for this year to complete the mid term .....
In any case, while we wait for the close. First round of [checks] from the yearly outlook. No surprises in the volatility, however we have a +5 weeks nuclear reactor compression in the Euro.

Is officially going to blow any 'minute' now that both sides of the range are naked.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,918
  • Jan 11, 2017 3:08pm Jan 11, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Interesting this time we were literally inches away from Euro to wipe the lows on the close. Gossip after the fact is some very large US banks holding short Dollar were hanging on air and stepped in before a wipe out....take it as it come as is only gossips ...
Sisse, when you are saying " inches away from Euro to wipe the lows on the close", do you mean this part of the move (where the price almost reversed to the downside)?

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  • #146,919
  • Jan 11, 2017 3:14pm Jan 11, 2017 3:14pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Sisse, when you are saying " inches away from Euro to wipe the lows on the close", do you mean this part of the move (where the price almost reversed to the downside)? Screenshot1.png;2136153 {image}
For the mid term.

I was referring to take back 1.049x for the close. (And/or fading 1.052x if you are holding shorts from last week or added today as some others did).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,920
  • Jan 11, 2017 3:36pm Jan 11, 2017 3:36pm
Still Flat. Looking at how EU reacts at the highs. Still looking for .066x to hold. It's a Flip area for me right or wrong. Of course, it could be an area of Stops taken and send to .073x.

Am looking for a position in .066x before the Momentum Move and Mid Term leg completes. Almost started and thought it did once we were under .049x but London didn't close there nor did NY it appears.
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