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  • #146,881
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:30pm Jan 10, 2017 4:30pm
Euro rolling again slightly bullish making things a lot more complex until we clear the 1.05xx handle.

...a flattish day across the board but with plenty of shaky moves in the background. Treasuries breaking correlation with Dollar and Gold [bookmark this]sending screaming signals of what is about to come. We also saw quite a few large clearing in Euro and Yen in the last few days.

"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably .... is a duck" We are setting up for major capitulations moves across the board in Q1 and smart money is smelling blood ....

In the short term, Euro and YEN in very advanced position management & trading environment as is expected at these levels with bulls/bears managing to hold. Aggressively trailing stops from the FOMC/NFP play to very unhealthy levels for scratch/marginal losses as there is no point in holding stops at the high/lows any longer with macro hands in play and the ECB still far in the horizon.

We have a very complex trading range. We have a potential 'reverso' play (we haven't have one of those in months) to clean sweep all hands before capitulation in Euro, Yen and GOLD.

Very advanced trading environment. Without nothing on the FA side on the upcoming days and for strictly TA reasons I will qualify this as short term 'TA neutral' outlook in both until the respective handles are cleared or killed. If you don't know what you are doing is better to sit tight and/or stay aside. Here placing orders to fully load on the momentum play for capitulations move if the reverso plays gets triggered, if not .... same levels same trades, same all.

Very active trading management so tracking closely next couple of sessions to see how it pans out.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,882
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:31pm Jan 10, 2017 4:31pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} The noise will be factors in your pattern picking that are random inputs or adjustments, such approach as you described above needs to be very neatly defined with deep set of rules otherwise by all means you will have large noise impact on performance. Any highs and lows approach will have noise unless you adress additional variables or put things in context. First thing that you land on is what L/H is actually L/H that you pick. If you dont have robust rules to pick them you have noise. A good way to clear a lot of noise would be to define...

The swing high / low analyse or structure analysis by NSH NSL is not an method for entry by itself it is to assist in finding direction to trade. To find entrys at the system it origin from is used order flow analysis that is a complete study by itself. Actually a instruction video for it from Damian Castilla ( Mr.Pip) here:
Inserted Video


it is also covered in @Mr.pips thread here at Forex Factory Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade if you want to go deeper. It is pure technical. I was trading that on lower TF for a period but it was to time consuming for me. However I still use parts of it on higher TF and it is IMO a good combination with what we do here in the RUT.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,883
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:50pm Jan 10, 2017 4:50pm
Quoting sisse
Euro rolling again slightly bullish making things a lot more complex until we clear the 1.05xx handle. ...a flattish day across the board but with plenty of shaky moves in the background. Treasuries breaking correlation with Dollar and Gold [bookmark this]sending screaming signals of what is about to come. We also saw quite a few large clearing in Euro and Yen in the last few days. "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably .... is a duck" We are setting up for major capitulations moves across the board...
just so i understand, currently euro is in downtrend, a lot of people possibly short, the reverso play is for euro to go long and kill any shorts within 100-200 pip range or more, this knocks out any early shorters, and gives those who really wish to short a much better price to do so from...is that correct?
  • #146,884
  • Edited 9:25pm Jan 10, 2017 5:08pm | Edited 9:25pm
Quoting sisse
'TA neutral' outlook in both until the respective handles are cleared or killed. If you don't know what you are doing is better to sit tight and/or stay aside. Here placing orders to fully load on the momentum play for capitulations move if the reverso plays gets triggered, if not .... same levels same trades, same all. Very active trading management so tracking closely next couple of sessions to see how it pans out. sisse
Sisse is 1.08x the upper of those respective handles? I mean is 1.08x still locked in your view? The capitulation of longs and the momentum that would precede it (breaking 1.07x) could imaginably bring levels towards 1.097x into play no? 1080? (My small position short from this current daily range is not my focus here. More asking about your thoughts midterm obviously). The reverso, momentum, capitulation you describe refers to a move north of current highs into momentum, a move north to extremes of short term range as a last gasp capitulation for longs and could be played in both directions (up from here and loaded heavy for down from exhaustion of that capitulation move) making for a reverso play. I may have this wrong and would appreciate correction on it if so.
  • #146,885
  • Jan 10, 2017 5:32pm Jan 10, 2017 5:32pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Sisse is 1.08x the upper of those respective handles? I mean is 1.08x still locked in your view? The capitulation of longs and the momentum that would precede it (breaking 1.07x) could imaginably bring levels towards 1.097x into play no? 1080? (My small position short from this current daily range is not my focus here. More asking about your thoughts midterm obviously). The reverso, momentum, capitulation you describe refers to a move north of current highs into momentum, a move north to extremes of short term range as a last gasp capitulation...
Goosebone,
when talking about capitulation, I believe that Sisse means Euro going to parity and below. However a squeeze is possible (the "reverso play") to happen before that, which can cause euro to climb up to the "respective handles", which will be a good opportunity to load shorts. Then the momentum play will be on the way back down for the capitulation move. Sisse, please correct me if I am wrong in this interpretation.
Of course, I am also curious to know, which are "respective handles"...
  • #146,886
  • Jan 10, 2017 5:36pm Jan 10, 2017 5:36pm
Still feel like more juice left to the upside so I am not shorting yet....Maybe the retail sales number on Friday would be the trigger???

Quoting goosebone
Took a eu short at 607 last night. Very light. Stop at 670. I'll take half off at 545 if I get it. Entering slow. If we get <545 then back up near that entry and I don't stop out I'll add more. If south from here, well I'll have a tiny ticket for the ride down. At these prices I won't buy a big one. I don't think she's done climbing. But if I'm wrong about that it'd be OK. If I'm right the stop won't hurt too much. And if we bounce around in the tight 520/650 mini range it may be an opportunity to build a small short position where it's a little...
  • #146,887
  • Edited 7:08pm Jan 10, 2017 6:18pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Goosebone, when talking about capitulation, I believe that Sisse means Euro going to parity and below. However a squeeze is possible (the "reverso play") to happen before that, which can cause euro to climb up to the "respective handles", which will be a good opportunity to load shorts. Then the momentum play will be on the way back down for the capitulation move. Sisse, please correct me if I am wrong in this interpretation. Of course, I am also curious to know, which are "respective handles"...
I see what you mean. I may have almost a "negative image" of it here the way I was understanding capitulation. The way I saw it it would be longs capitulating, in one last push, to the greater FA driven short pressure.
  • #146,888
  • Jan 10, 2017 6:49pm Jan 10, 2017 6:49pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I see what you mean. I may have almost a "negative image" of it here the way I was understanding capitulation. The way I saw it it would be longs capitulating to the greater FA driven short pressure.
Don't worry. We are all here to learn, so asking questions and giving our own opinion and interpretation is the way to go
And yes, longs capitulating driven by shorts pressure will build the momentum, and this will be on the way down.
Before this, however, a "reverso" play is possible on the way up. this is how I understand it
  • #146,889
  • Jan 10, 2017 8:07pm Jan 10, 2017 8:07pm
Inserted Video
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,890
  • Jan 10, 2017 9:14pm Jan 10, 2017 9:14pm
Quoting Xxavier
Still feel like more juice left to the upside so I am not shorting yet....Maybe the retail sales number on Friday would be the trigger??? {quote}
Could be. Not sure. Got my 545 so free or better to find out.
  • #146,891
  • Jan 10, 2017 11:57pm Jan 10, 2017 11:57pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} If 1.065x is broken it opens up the range up to 1.085x so I will say that a bullish momentum break is at 1.065X ( I will not trade it if it happens without any FA change )
damn important level...I'd have to try some shorts there just on a count of how mean that level looks...and I just might, provided there isn't anything more interesting at the time..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #146,892
  • Edited 2:54am Jan 11, 2017 2:39am | Edited 2:54am
Quoting goosebone
...Sisse is 1.08x the upper of those respective handles? I mean is 1.08x still locked in your view? ...
Yes, I have locked levels all the way down to the 1.080x handle for now (1.084).

Quote
The capitulation of longs and the momentum that would precede it (breaking 1.07x) could imaginably bring levels towards 1.097x into play no? 1080? ...

NO. You are confused. Capitulation refers to the real mid term moves (Euro 0.98, Yen 126, OIL 63, Sterling 17, Equities +2330, etc etc the real mid term swings. The entries for that are already in play [e.g in the Euro: roll play 1.057/9x, Fading 1.052x on the way back and now, the momentum play if we break 1.051x...same apply for almost all major instruments across the board)

Second capitulation can only occur at the break of the very top for longs and the very bottom for shorts. The point of a capitulation is that nobody else (literally) wil be sitting on the other side. In the case of currencies price can move over bids / offer very fast as there is no interest in the middle until exhaustion on profit taking [last and very fresh case Sterling capitulating after brexit) ..

...in the typical sketch is the part of the red part of the chart where retail and soft hands will get wiped out for weeks as indicators will extend [e.g ignore extremes, ignore oversold/overbought for weeks, etc etc you know the usual stuff) by large the range so indicator trading and magic lines ranges trades will be blind and naked of TA references ....

I will post a live video recording that got somewhere so you can check what a capitulation move feels...

Quote
The reverso, momentum, capitulation you describe refers to a move north of current highs into ....

The potential reverso play (especially clear in Euro and Yen) refers to the short term play that comes from last week FOMC/NFP. The failure to trigger the continuation moves have left those who added positions (e.g shorts in the Euro) hanging with a poor r:r for those new levels so there are like sitting ducks on the current highs/lows [depending on the instrument you are referring].

Point being, there is 'pointless' to hold wide stops for those fresh short term positions any longer [why hold a turd], as if they can blow away as high as 1,084x for example in the Euro in a sharp clean sweep [spike] before the capitulation move.

In simple words, if you are in already, sit tight and let it play out, if your 'unhealthy' stops now gets blown either you patiently wait to fade / take the capitulation move on the way back and/or if you are very sharp you can play the reverso (not recommend it at all if you don't now exactly how to manage it) setting your stop to reverse, fill and kill on the short squeeze manually...

I hope it helps....for now we are stuck in the same place so nothing to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,893
  • Jan 11, 2017 4:02am Jan 11, 2017 4:02am
...watch-out Sterling as we have more noise from the Brexit front ....expecting angry populist politicians from the government on the wires very soon reacting to the latest news. Expecting lots of hard brexit comments in the upcoming days ....we are inches away to trigger next chapter in the UK...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,894
  • Jan 11, 2017 5:05am Jan 11, 2017 5:05am
Quoting sisse
Without nothing on the FA side on the upcoming days and for strictly TA reasons I will qualify this as short term 'TA neutral' outlook in both until the respective handles are cleared or killed. If you don't know what you are doing is better to sit tight and/or stay aside. Here placing orders to fully load on the momentum play for capitulations move if the reverso plays gets triggered, if not .... same levels same trades, same all. Very active trading management so tracking closely next couple of sessions to see how it pans out. sisse
Sisse, can we consider that the range/flip in play for the current ST neutral outlook is the following?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #146,895
  • Edited 6:28am Jan 11, 2017 5:47am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes, I have locked levels all the way down to the 1.080x handle for now (1.084). {quote} NO. You are confused. Capitulation refers to the real mid term moves (Euro 0.98, Yen 126, OIL 63, Sterling 17, Equities +2330, etc etc the real mid term swings. The entries for that are already in play [e.g in the Euro: roll play 1.057/9x, Fading 1.052x on the way back and now, the momentum play if we break 1.051x...same apply for almost all major instruments across the board) Second capitulation can only occur at the break of the very top for longs...
Thanks to you and jaxx80. Very clear now.
  • #146,896
  • Jan 11, 2017 5:56am Jan 11, 2017 5:56am
Quoting sisse
{quote}The entries for that are already in play [e.g in the Euro: roll play 1.057/9x, Fading 1.052x on the way back and now, the momentum play if we break 1.051x...
I do think that instead of 1.052x he meant 1.062x?
  • #146,897
  • Jan 11, 2017 6:36am Jan 11, 2017 6:36am
That was it for the European opening session. Eyes in NY as Euro and Sterling are flirting to move away ... until then....

sisse

Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Sisse, can we consider that the range/flip in play for the current ST neutral outlook is the following? Screenshot1.png;2135025 {image}
NO.

IMO, You are too close to the market for that short term map.

Quoting SorinAQ
{quote} I do think that instead of 1.052x he meant 1.062x?
NO. I meant exactly 1.052x.


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,898
  • Jan 11, 2017 6:37am Jan 11, 2017 6:37am
Quoting janpec1000
Lets see if we get 2180 tap on GU to clear some shorts, late micro shorts already squeezed. Unlocking some higher levels if we get there.
2180 tap delivered shorts cleared in range, but higher levels on GBP now invalidated.
Holding some EM shorts again, TRY got some longs build since early London on pop move but looks like CB intervened and got BE killed on all of them. Still holding one from 864 pop move still valid.
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  • #146,899
  • Jan 11, 2017 6:44am Jan 11, 2017 6:44am
Quoting sisse
NO. I meant exactly 1.052x.
Then how is it positioning for the mid term swing/capitulation? Fading 1.052x after a 10-20 pip bounce after the test of the 1.05 handle doesn't make any sense for a mid term swing, so is it positioning for the reverso play in this case?
  • #146,900
  • Edited 7:26am Jan 11, 2017 7:07am | Edited 7:26am
@goosebone and all others interested.

Here is a record of a capitulation move in the ES. Try to not only pay attention to audio itself but try putting the chart next to it (map it) (if you have a reply function in your platform even better) so you can see what it's a capitulation move from the TA point of view.

Pay attention to the levels taken on each second especially when we take the momentum area and then on the final gasp (after +/- min 2:00)and how a capitulation take place. This was a monster move in term of $$$$ size and implications involved btw so don't let the wild volatility makes you think is a usual move in the ES (one of those amazing day in the markets ...shout @PayTheLimit as I know he will enjoy those memories....).

Inserted Video
(change to another video which is better)

Lots of nuggets in that simple example. I hope the audio doesn't accelerate you too much and makes you jump blindly in a capitulation move... je je je

Enjoy as I am sure any trader will...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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