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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,361
  • Jan 10, 2017 2:16am Jan 10, 2017 2:16am
GB opened inside yesterday GB range/value: unless price will start to bid above or to go down immediately and with high conviction, our expectations should be modest, at least initially, because current price location indicates us the we have a substantial acceptation of yesterday prices. Last GB/preUS/pit US and Tokyo lows are clustering just above the major lower levels: it is a risky zone. If we will find serious sellers or buyers we should have them below these levels not above.
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  • #2,362
  • Jan 10, 2017 2:22am Jan 10, 2017 2:22am
And here we are below them right now: watch out here.
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  • #2,363
  • Jan 10, 2017 2:24am Jan 10, 2017 2:24am
For any meaningfull continuation downside we need price acceptation below the previous "all time" GB low at 21137 now already taken out. If not this will be a serious signal of possible short/mid term reversal. If instead we will have acceptation below it well: in this case monitor for continuation.
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  • #2,364
  • Jan 10, 2017 2:24am Jan 10, 2017 2:24am
Lock, we see weak hands maintaining the market, when longterm timetrame traders enter the market it trends, stops and comes back into balance/rotates do we suppose that they have liquidated and left the market or something else?
  • #2,365
  • Jan 10, 2017 2:49am Jan 10, 2017 2:49am
Quoting Zaak
Lock, we see weak hands maintaining the market, when longterm timetrame traders enter the market it trends, stops and comes back into balance/rotates do we suppose that they have liquidated and left the market or something else?
Long term do not enter a market in one single position. They have too much size to do it in this manner. They can start with some, then stop, then add some more etc. It's a process that can last even days. Mid term also generally split positions. Short term instead generally could enter with single big one. And short term could have substantial capitals so their impact could be very visible.
Having said that you have to consider that anyone could liquidate a too long position or cover a too short one: so the situation you were speaking about could happen to any of current market participants.

In this particular case we saw A period coming down initially to find stops. B then probed again below 21137 and for now we got no significant reaction below this level. Consider also that stops are not all in the same position: short term stops are very close to the level, mid term are much lower, long term (if any) are generally far lower. The more the time spent in a balance the more the stops will tend to cluster together, narrowing and narrowing.
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  • #2,366
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:00am Jan 10, 2017 3:00am
[quote=Lock;9421254]{quote} Long term do not enter a market in one single position.

Thanks.
  • #2,367
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:02am Jan 10, 2017 3:02am
B / C highs at half back*. Note that price acceptation back inside yes GB range could lead to a full retracement of it. But let's see.

*If mid term were entered this market below 21137 price were never stopped at half back. Specially twice.
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  • #2,368
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:06am Jan 10, 2017 3:06am
Quoting Lock
B / C highs at half back*. Note that price acceptation back inside yes GB range could lead to a full retracement of it. But let's see. *If mid term were entered this market below 21137 price were never stopped at half back. Specially twice.
So the only ones that can be entered below that level are currently short term/daily timeframe operators. (The same ones that are selling at half back by the way)
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  • #2,369
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:28am Jan 10, 2017 3:28am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So the only ones that can be entered below that level are currently short term/daily timeframe operators. (The same ones that are selling at half back by the way)
Weak hands at half back taken out.
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  • #2,370
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:41am Jan 10, 2017 3:41am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Weak hands at half back taken out.
amazing....what you can see and how it develops afterwards that all with known reference points
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,371
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:53am Jan 10, 2017 3:53am
Note that current correction is taking place against value from yesterday GB session and specially against mid term trend downside: so watch out.

Your stops should be below yesterday GB session (if you are a day timeframe trader): in the case something will go wrong upside.
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  • #2,372
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:57am Jan 10, 2017 3:57am
10:57+1GMT
21513 is yes GB unchanged: currently tagged by D period: for any meaningfull continuation upside we need acceptation above it. If not..
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  • #2,373
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:06am Jan 10, 2017 4:06am
Quoting Lock
17/01/10 TUESDAY 08:58+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ... As a recap, we are in a long term trend downside** (monthly), in a mid term trend downside (weekly), a short term trend downside (daily) and currently we have a cluster at Tokyo half back 2154 and a substantial imbalance of inventories clearly very very short. .....
taken out
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  • #2,374
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:09am Jan 10, 2017 4:09am
2162 is the major composite poc around here. It will tend to attract price. Note anyhow that sometimes it works exactly as the opposite: rejecting price. In this second case we could generally consider an exact rejection at these levels as weak hands activity. Stronger hands tend to sell or buy above or below such composite pocs.
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  • #2,375
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:12am Jan 10, 2017 4:12am
And by the way 2156 that current E period tagged just some minutes ago, is the lowest GB close of 2016. An other clearly very important reference for a GB session. Note that value is still lower from yesterday GB value.
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  • #2,376
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:18am Jan 10, 2017 4:18am
Quoting Lock
And by the way 2156 that current E period tagged just some minutes ago, is the lowest GB close of 2016. An other clearly very important reference for a GB session. Note that value is still lower from yesterday GB value.
So look at the references they are using: this correction upside started exactly at 21137 (C period low) that is the lowest low of 2016 for GB and E period is currently tagging the lowest close of GB for 2016 2156: who do you think is using these references to trade? Short term traders or longer term ones? Longer term timeframes have no idea of such references nor they could care less of them. So this market is currently ruled by short term and daily timeframe traders.
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  • #2,377
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:33am Jan 10, 2017 4:33am
Quoting Lock
10:57+1GMT 21513 is yes GB unchanged: currently tagged by D period: for any meaningfull continuation upside we need acceptation above it. If not..
Note that we got no acceptation* back above yes GB unchanged. And current value is clearly lower from yesterday.

*at least a couple of periods closed above a certain level.

At the same time we got acceptation back inside yesterday GB range: so we got conflicting information for now. The clear info we have is that current market is ruled by weak hands. Note also F low at current half back.
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  • #2,378
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:53am Jan 10, 2017 4:53am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Note that we got no acceptation* back above yes GB unchanged. And current value is clearly lower from yesterday. *at least a couple of periods closed above a certain level. At the same time we got acceptation back inside yesterday GB range: so we got conflicting information for now. The clear info we have is that current market is ruled by weak hands. Note also F low at current half back.
And why is this information so usefull for us as day traders? Because when you understand who is ruling a market you know what kind of references will be probably elected to make trades. So the things to do could be:

  1. do what they do. Profit when they profit, entry when they entry or..
  2. wait untill they put themselves in trouble and go against them following stronger hands.

Both actions are licit, it depends upon your trading approach, your capacity to entry or esc a position in a certain omount of time (fast or slow), your patience etc.

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  • #2,379
  • Jan 10, 2017 5:38am Jan 10, 2017 5:38am
Hello from a learner. Like you tread.
Thank you.
Oddbj.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #2,380
  • Jan 10, 2017 6:07am Jan 10, 2017 6:07am
Hi Lock will it be possible to simplify your explanation?
I think as long as the region 1.2198 stays as resistance we could be testing the low, I am targeting 1.1967
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