Counting candles

Good morning.
I'm looking for an argument here on the site or who has treated the movement of prices and the cycles counting candles.
I have my idea, but I'm trying different ideas or opinions.
An indication would be very welcome.

Thank

This has nothing to do with cycles but does have to do with counting candles so may or may not be of interest to you.

A couple of months ago I listened to a podcast by a trader called Jared Johnson. He detailed a trading method (return to the mean type) he uses which includes counting the number of candles in a currency pair since price last touched the 200eMA on a M15 chart.
If the count goes over 400 candles (approx. 4 days) it is very likely that there will at least be a retracement back to the 200eMA. So he then looks for a trendline break back towards the 200eMA for trade entry with a target of the eMA. I was a bit sceptical that something like this would work very well but did some quick (not very scientific) backtesting.

The 400 count doesn’t happen very often (backtest results for Eurusd gave 17 times in 5 years) but does seem to indicate that the method could be profitable.
Results were:
14 trades
10 winners, 4 losers
Average winner 1.62%, average loser -1.00%
Profit 12.2%, Profit Factor 4.1
He states that this method works for all currency pairs except JPY pairs.

When I get some time I intend to backtest this method more accurately with Forextester2.

If you are interested the podcast is here: http://52traders.com/jared-johnson/

TD sequential is candle counting method, very popular. google it.
Weekly, daily, H4 bars are workable. it give you a way to expect the end point of a trend, so, you can tight up trailing stop gap.

bar counting can be used to do cycle estimate. eg, 50 hour cycle (2 day cycle), count 50 hourly bars after bar close abv ma50.
3 day cycle, count 72-75 bar. There is 1 day cycle, 2 day cycle, 3 day cycle, 5 day cycle, 8 day cycle, 9 day, 13 day cycle.

When you can catch up 9 day cycle running, then, you win surely, after, further running, which is God blessing you! This is TD sequential.

This doesn't sound like a system that could really be used. Have you got any historical data on this?

Good morning.
This is my idea similar to what he says jack168 and theras2000, but I state a few things.
1) must be long trend to evaluate all tf I'm talking
2) waves should not be construed as necessarily visible wave: for example in a bull trend very strong a wave retracement sell can 'be seen as a bull.
3) a cycle and 'composed of three waves. 4) the cycle can take many forms:
a) all linear with three cycles equal including retracements with strong trends
b) stepwise with 50% fibo retracements
c) mixed type but the first wave of the input signal must be in the market in the direction of the trend.


These are now my waves to count on TF:

Tf 1h: 12 candles for wave (half day) with 3 per cycle waves.
Tf 4H: 12 for wave candles with two waves (two days) this also a connecting TF between 1h and the daily tf tf, because it is not a pure tf as 1TF and 1daily in which each spark plug is represented by a unit, also the fact that he has only two waves depends on the convention of representing the tf with 4 hours candle so nothing strange that it is different, so the cycle is rapprentato two waves (it is through this cycle that are formed weekly dojo candles or double pin bar opposites weekly or single weekly pin bar ecc.), also it can last half a day extra to wave if the 1H tf comes to his aid.
Tf daily: 12 candle with 3 waves, also as the 4h tf candles can last 2 and a half more if counting come to his aid the tf 1h and 4h, or just two days more if it comes to his aid only 4h ( three cycles of these you get the support or resistance levels of round numbers).
I conclude by saying that this is a strategy of control and verification of the trend movement and the 12 number is important. Anomalies in the counting result from the fact that the three types of counts do affect the basic counts.

Thank

The only mention of Jared Johnson on all of ForexFactory

On a blank candlestick chart recognizable are the candlestick high and low price points from where it was preferable to go long or short based on the price movement that followed.