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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,801
  • Edited 10:24am Jan 6, 2017 10:09am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting Earleone
Sisse or anyone. I read around that China is doing devaluation of Yuan . But short term the effect is opposite ( They sell their FX reserves to try to support and strengthen the Yuan and most of their fx reserves is in USD causing some of the moves we see, they sell big USD and buy Yuan ) Yuan has strengthened strongly this week. And when they have burned their reserves we will see the reel effect from the devaluation. Not sure I am on the right track here so anyone having opinion about this would be nice to hear. Also Mexico selling off USD to...
Well very weak interventions from Mexico so far, surprisingly the weakest from across EMs, no proper short squeezes even attempted. A lot more long term bearishness on horizon for it, perhaps better for CB to not throw too much good money after bad.

EMs now short term and mid term unlocking another strike on higher levels USD/EM, especially tracking ZAR CNH/Y BRL and TRY. 8100 is first one on ZAR without LL invalidation should be main play.

China has a lot of fuel to burn in FX, Tbill, short liquidity reserves and since their politics is very centralized they can come out with some quick bangs (already did some) to really make some impacts on CNH and scare shorts on near term, however they are heavy exporting economy and markets wouldnt appretiate large volatility in currency especially on bull side. On very large macro China is trapped no question about it, but from traders point of view mid term can still be very rocky. Lets not forget when in 2015 first phase begin they rolled some heads, prisoned heavy shorters, and rolled some tanks, thats how they roll, dont underestimate what can be behind the corner for CNH shorts.
On side note to prove above point, just in last 2 days Bitcoin in China crashed 30%, altough tiny currency it points out what strongly centralized policy can impact on assets just with few comments.
  • #146,802
  • Jan 6, 2017 10:23am Jan 6, 2017 10:23am
Quoting Earleone
Got filled on the one 1-0615 ( 10 pips below ) Looks like the USD bulls ( me including ) are coming in again. News was IMO inline. Interesting now to see if NY agree. Anyway are in good position with the one order that I got a fill on. ( I hope someone else got it too as I described some weeks ago how I try to catch this spikes ) PS ( I also got a fill on gold ) {image}
And now scaling in with additional positions fading the 1.0577 level . Set first entry from 1.0606 level to BE so risk is still the same but possible profit double ( I risk a total of 25 pips )
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,803
  • Jan 6, 2017 10:57am Jan 6, 2017 10:57am
Europe going home with important updates from the first week of the year including the FOMC/NFP first report of the year:

-> Changing short term outlook in European Equities (DAX as ref) from neutral to buy.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,804
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:04am Jan 6, 2017 11:04am
Second update from today:

--> Changing short term outlook in Gold from Neutral to Soft Sell.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,805
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:07am Jan 6, 2017 11:07am
Third update from the currency board:

--> Changing short term outlook in Sterling from Neutral to soft sell.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,806
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:13am Jan 6, 2017 11:13am
...and finally the most important one from across the FX board in Euro for todays close we are locking levels all the way down to the 1.08xx handle but more importantly:

--> Changing mid term outlook in the Euro from sell to aggressive sell

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,807
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:42am Jan 6, 2017 11:42am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with important updates from the first week of the year including the FOMC/NFP first report of the year: -> Changing short term outlook in European Equities (DAX as ref) from neutral to buy. sisse
Same had same timing on that one for short term view (long from 11588 currently holding). Also same on gold, altough that one i got earlier (perhaps different level as key) already as posted before. Again same for dollar (assuming your EUR view comes mainly from dollar flows), altough i dont see agressive hm...
  • #146,808
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:43am Jan 6, 2017 11:43am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with important updates from the first week of the year including the FOMC/NFP first report of the year: -> Changing short term outlook in European Equities (DAX as ref) from neutral to buy. sisse
Thanks for the outlook update Sisse, your thoughts on FTSE 100 would be greatly appreciated.
  • #146,809
  • Jan 6, 2017 12:04pm Jan 6, 2017 12:04pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Thanks for the outlook update Sisse, your thoughts on FTSE 100 would be greatly appreciated.
Nothing new there, same story until Brexit chapter 2 kicks in and trigger the mid term leg.

--> Macro numbers held very very steady in Q4. A lot better than forecasted for Q4 with a strong hand from Europe turning around and US booming.

- Inflation is already in (and we haven't digest the huge rally in gas and OIL yet for this year) and it will be reflected in a very decent blow in real wages from this Quarter to the average Joe in the street.

-->London property prices (early benchmark on whats about to come) felt the most in the last 30 years -7% in huge contrast with brexitland that all properties prices jumped in with government and lenders dumping mortgages before the storm to the most fragile group in case things go upside down next year.

--> Finally most of financial/banking institutions and big corporation that depend on the EU market are with one foot at the door, bargain hunting across Europe looking for the best offers across the continent to move while those that depend on the UK market alone are happily hijacking the opportunity making the government give them a free ride (no corporation tax, no environmental regulation, duties, protectionism, subsidies, you name it ) under the table.

FTSE obviously happily riding short term exuberance with the aid of Sterling getting destroyed. Sadly the capitulation of the POUND is gone and any further depreciation below 1.12x will just destroy the economy via imports and inflation and will have null impact on exports beyond the already digested current short term gains...

Nothing to see or do for now ...just silently ride the pig for now and dump later when Brexit jitters starts ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,810
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:31pm Jan 6, 2017 2:31pm
As hard as we tried all session, DJ failed by less than an inch to tick 20000 for the headlines but still US equites triggering 'imminent break up alerts' for the close...

Not much to see for the close with Euro literally floating on air at these levels ...tracking Yen close today.

Quoting sisse
...here we go for the first NFP.... Earleone, goosebone, Replicant, chester123 will track your view so expecting your views updates and wrap up after the fact....
@ Earleone, goosebone, Replicant, chester123

Still waiting for final updates ... ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,811
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:54pm Jan 6, 2017 2:54pm
Quoting sisse
As hard as we tried all session, DJ failed by less than an inch to tick 20000 for the headlines but still US equites triggering 'imminent break up alerts' for the close... Not much to see for the close with Euro literally floating on air at these levels ...tracking Yen close today. {quote} @ Earleone, goosebone, Replicant, chester123 Still waiting...
Ok, sorry I could not post live. Had to participate in some important work/school stuff. So:

the report was inline (US economy and FED on track - nothing new). This was my ST map prior:

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You can see it suggested a zig-zag NFP flow to approach the flip. I was wrong on that. Instead we got very slow NFP flow down to soft bearish close on D1 on low of ST map + bearish W1 close.

What I expect next week? Its soft on report front so no big volatile moves (?) =) a soft intraday pullback at beginning of week + continuation down to sit on my first target lvl (momentum break on ST) for ECB.

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Strategywise: u can see I was short from ECB. Took two profits. Rest trailed as sisse did. Survived. 2 more targets to go short term. The question is if I should scale in with these expensive tickets on pullback next week. I think I should not if I make the counting of R/R but it looks veeery tempting as its all ST/MT alligned down.
  • #146,812
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:07pm Jan 6, 2017 3:07pm
Plus here is something - Im never sure when to recalibrate maps - I usually do it when swing is finished. Here we had one pre-FED post-TRUMP. Few days of neutral and sell again on ST =) so I recalibrated the map to show us another ST swing down straight away. And the short term lvls ====) you see it on previous map. However, if we move all the lvls one lvl down (see chart) - its also a way to see it. here the flop seems to be better and it suddenly makes the tickets not so expensive. Mediocre
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  • #146,813
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:10pm Jan 6, 2017 3:10pm
Nevertheless, I gotta say I prefer the first 2 maps lvls. Because when we switched to short term sell again we did not have that flip (could not guess it) cuz we did not see the future price. Ehm, have no idea if this can be the logic but seems intuitive to me
  • #146,814
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:15pm Jan 6, 2017 3:15pm
Nonfarm numbers was inline. more then 2 million jobs created in 2016. Very strong numbers with average hourly earnings up and unemployment rate at 4.7% . All bullish for USD.

EURUSD was getting an range today below 100 pips that is not so much for a non farm day but USD bulls was taking the drivers seat again now after the squeeze the 2 previous days. We are in the middle of a micro range and I was hoping to clear 1.049X during the NY session. Anyway not much bearish to see for USD ( not even china ) So just to be patient and see if we get to clear off a little bit at 1.049 level in the beginning of next week to lock in profit.


I change my tp1 target in the attached chart from 1.047X to 1.049X I did not notice before now that it was at 1.0470 area on the short term map since I was focusing on the EP. And 1.049x level should be well known for the readers here in the RUT .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,815
  • Edited 4:01pm Jan 6, 2017 3:41pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting chester123
Nevertheless, I gotta say I prefer the first 2 maps lvls. Because when we switched to short term sell again we did not have that flip (could not guess it) cuz we did not see the future price. Ehm, have no idea if this can be the logic but seems intuitive to me
V. Good wrap up ....Indeed a rather dull session but well... we got the double inline FOMC/FED not really surprising, isn't it? ....

Quote
Plus here is something - Im never sure when to recalibrate maps...

Well mid term chart is exactly the same chart we have been trading for over +8 months. Here:

Quoting sisse
{quote} ...--> This is the actual real case.
Why should you change it? Same outlook, same levels.... On the short term I understand is difficult to grasp the maps after major moves. Rule of thumb:

-> If there isn't a change of outlook why should you change?

-> Sit and spend a good time reevaluating after major breaks not before even if it looks extremely tempting to chicken out in the middle. If you are wrong you are wrong. The only reason to close manually is because of a clear change in market because unexpected factors or simple new conditions you couldnt/didn't forecast in advance....meaning even in those cases you first close all your trades first and only after you draw the new map a couple of days later even if you have itchy fingers for revenge.

--> Short term = days to weeks. Mid term = weeks to months Long term = months to Quarters .... with that in mind for example if you change a short term map 3 or 4 times in a couple of weeks means you are overtrading and doing something wrong ...

--> When you catch a swing in a trend (as you are right now) you need to grasp one of the hardest concept in trading. Holding the pullbacks (here is when we lost most of traders in these boards ..you can even see it here in the thread, the frustration and inner demons every time a pullback comes):

 

  1. You know after a target (especially a major one), a pullback is on the table. One thing is knowing this before the fact another is when you see price moving agains you. Newbies look to swap sides with a new 'map' and outguess the bottom to trade also the pullback.

  1. Experienced traders, just ignore. However most of the time you can clearly see the TA opp to take that pullback (although the odds are against you) so our natural reaction is either try to map the other side 'just for the pullback ....etc etc etc the problem starts when you map back a new extension in the middle of the range and fail even before even the actual retrace finishes etc after 1 or 2 of those failures in the consolidation you end up with 5 overlapping maps in 'chart fitting mode'....you know the rest.
  2. Hint: DONT change the map but rather use that time to locate the potential area for retrace to load in the direction. Think in terms of reducing risk (check back post on position management and risk) and only after in terms of maximising profit ...

  1. Final TA rule of thumb (assuming no changes in FAof course) think in terms of ranges and waves...if your MAP start in point A and you are aiming to point D. If it moves to your initial target point B and start pulling back to A DON"T change the MAP. IT IS INSIDE TRADING in the original map no reason to adjust. If it moves then and reach C. Evaluate you map DON'T change the original MAP but 'ignore' all the area already covered between A and B... you can adjust a fresh overlapping helper map on top B and C but only for a reference for areas of potential loading on the pullback back to B but not for the final extension target...rinse and repeat until you reach D or Fundamentals change ...

I know its sound a bit cryptic but you can plot it in map quickly and see what I mean ....

In general, thats why is so important to not get too close to the market (forest for trees). The closer you get, the hardest it get to be always right adjusting direction every other day. the Majority of the flops around micro traders is because they can't cope with so many changes so when they lost synch, they don't screw ones but the next dozen trades in a row ...

I hope it helps ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,816
  • Jan 6, 2017 4:02pm Jan 6, 2017 4:02pm
...and we rolled ...slightly bullish daily close and a neutral weekly close ...

Nothing new, nothing to do either till next week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,817
  • Jan 6, 2017 6:18pm Jan 6, 2017 6:18pm
Quoting SorinAQ
Strong resistance (extreme) 1.065x >> Intermediate resistance 1.055x >> Flip 1.046x >> Intermediate support 1.03* >> Strong support (extreme) 1.017x[...]I realize that this probably makes the range too big for just this week but I have no time (or knowledge) to do any better right now.
I was away from my computer for a good few hours, kept an eye on things from mobile, good thing that moves were pretty tame I guess. Meant to post before hand, but didn't follow through. Good to read Replicant post (pretty similar view) and chester123 post (high quality).

Inline/slight undershoot was indeed most expected scenario, better AHE number maybe helped not reach 1.065x level for a few dozen ticks. Hard to say what to expect for next weeks, reaching the high of the range may still be possible (the quiet week might actually help), we may get more info at 1.046x.

Great and warm weekend to everyone!
  • #146,818
  • Edited 9:02pm Jan 6, 2017 8:38pm | Edited 9:02pm
Sorry I didnt jump in earlier, the afternoon/evening got away from me. Real life is really starting to get in the way honestly.
Looks like the wrap up was covered very well by others. Don't know if I have any insight to add.
It went as expected on the report, but not entirely as expected by me on the chart. I thought with a mostly inline FED + mostly inline nfp that 1.065 would get a poke (or better) so I was looking for that with the immediate reaction. Might take a bit longer than that.
I've got one out of the three original paths left on my technicolor chart now. I imagine next week will test that one.
Have a good weekend all.
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  • #146,819
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:22pm Jan 6, 2017 11:22pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled ...slightly bullish daily close and a neutral weekly close ... Nothing new, nothing to do either till next week.... sisse
I apologize for my silly question in advance, I'm fairly new to all this (again). Why is the daily close slightly bullish? Because the daily candle wasn't able to take down the whole candle of the previous day or because it closed above a certain level?

And the same for the weekly neutral, more about the candle itself or a certain level?

And I really wish I had earlone's limit stop orders. Were pretty handy again!

Thanks all.
  • #146,820
  • Jan 7, 2017 12:35am Jan 7, 2017 12:35am
Quoting Happy_Sniper
{quote} I apologize for my silly question in advance, I'm fairly new to all this (again). Why is the daily close slightly bullish? Because the daily candle wasn't able to take down the whole candle of the previous day or because it closed above a certain level? And the same for the weekly neutral, more about the candle itself or a certain level? And I really wish I had earlone's limit stop orders. Were pretty handy again! Thanks all.
You dont' have stop orders? You can only enter spot? What kind of broker do you have?
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