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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,781
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:41am Jan 6, 2017 2:41am
We look set to start the trading year with NFP.

Story of the week keep coming from China. Starting to smell fishy as more details are coming. Things a lot bigger than simply yuan devaluation starting to appear in the surface, including a monster bazooka from US bonds and politicians starting to feel not that happy with Trump pre inauguration aggressive talks. ...

Protectionism will end in tears as it usually does and if Trump walks the talk... Americans will feel the aftershocks of such backward ideas sooner rather than later especially as this is not unleveraged Mexico but its a heavyweight .... Keeping a very close eye in that front as it's flirting to be the first real Trump faux pax after the honeymoon period is over later in the year ....

More important for trading right now is, GOLD triggering 'choose your poison time' right on time to join the board. We have officially ever single major market in either imminent break and/or choose your poison time .... Large movers and shakers expected in the upcoming weeks...

sisse


@chester123 , Replicant, Earleone Good posts !!!

Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Sisse, when you are referring to the "FOMC/NFP flow", do you mean a flow which starts with FOMC and ends before NFP? Or NFP is included? Thanks
Come on mate. What would be the point of trading only the leg before the news.... of course it includes NFP. Here:

Quoting sisse
....Profit taking or Capitulation. ....Flow extends to the NFP/W combo... GL all... sisse
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hi, Im still in short term from the last "choose your posion" with partial profits (1st + 2 nd) taken. It seems to me its not the right time to scale in on short term (we still in expensive tickets). ....
I still have a strong capitulation aftertaste symptoms from those 2 spikes overnight in the middle of nowhere especially because we are in 'red' zone' in the momentum part of the move.

The odds of a full retrace short term after a large multiyear break are usually very slim (in my FX major pairs back data goes from 65% to less than 15% in comparable swings) ...until NFP bulls have the benefit of the doubt so let see how it pans out at the end....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,782
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:49am Jan 6, 2017 2:49am
Bond market crash an accident or a new trend?

http://independenttrader.org/bond-ma...new-trend.html
  • #146,783
  • Edited 3:48am Jan 6, 2017 3:20am | Edited 3:48am
Sisse or anyone.

I read around that China is doing devaluation of Yuan . But short term the effect is opposite ( They sell their FX reserves to try to support and strengthen the Yuan and most of their fx reserves is in USD causing some of the moves we see, they sell big USD and buy Yuan ) Yuan has strengthened strongly this week.
And when they have burned their reserves we will see the reel effect from the devaluation. Not sure I am on the right track here so anyone having opinion about this would be nice to hear.

Also Mexico selling off USD to support Peso so kind of the same but Peso is weakening directly.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,784
  • Jan 6, 2017 5:23am Jan 6, 2017 5:23am
Quoting Earleone
Sisse or anyone. I read around that China is doing devaluation of Yuan . But short term the effect is opposite ( They sell their FX reserves to try to support and strengthen the Yuan and most of their fx reserves is in USD causing some of the moves we see, they sell big USD and buy Yuan ) Yuan has strengthened strongly this week. And when they have burned their reserves we will see the reel effect from the devaluation. Not sure I am on the right track here so anyone having opinion about this would be nice to hear. Also Mexico selling off USD to...
China is using its foreign exchange reserves to help manage a gradual depreciation of the Yuan and avoid a speculative-induced, hard-landing form of devaluation, which would export a deflationary tidal wave and great instability to the global economy and would be debilitating for the reputation of China to manage its economy.

The rise in the renminbi seen yesterday was something of the short squeeze, as the funding costs for the currency soared in the offshore market which, along with heavy buying by the authorities, sparked a scramble to square positions in what is an incredibly crowded trade.

According to the most recent data, China used up $30bn of their foreign exchange reserves in the past month. The value of their remaining reserves stands at a little over $3tn (a level last seen in 2011), down from a peak of $3.9tn in 2014.

The above all renders out of date Trump's accusations of China being a currency manipulator. China's manipulation in foreign exchange markets is not to devalue the currency, as was the case in the past, but instead to prevent a fast depreciation, in effect supporting the currency against the dollar (which is beneficial to the US) in the short-term. The market is pretty firm in its belief the the renminbi is overvalued (which was certainly not the cast 5 years ago), as is evident by the huge capital outflows seen in the past year.
  • #146,785
  • Jan 6, 2017 6:37am Jan 6, 2017 6:37am
Update with new path A since old one is off the table.
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  • #146,786
  • Jan 6, 2017 6:44am Jan 6, 2017 6:44am
Will set my sell stop limit orders at 1.0650 , 1.0615 ( 10 pips below with 25 pips SL ) and possible sell stop at 1.0575 just before Non farm as it looks now. If we get an inline or better I hope to get filled for the 2 above on the turn down from spike. If we get an flop I will try to cancel all pendings before triggered.

If we get a one way south I will not get filled for this one. But has some running in DD from below ( expensive tickets ) already so it is OK too.
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Attached Image
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,787
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:06am Jan 6, 2017 7:06am
...here we go for the first NFP of the year with a rather pure Technical report as there is very little in play on the Fundamental side.

--> On the fundamental side:

Nothing in play for today. Strong US numbers in employment and across the economic board coming from all US macro indicators. Markets expecting inline/better numbers for today.

Only very few extreme hawkish voices tracking a strong overshoot/undershoot in NFP/unemployment to unlock expectations for March hikes (RMT chapter 3 in the US). Anything else (including a soft flop) will bring nothing new on the fundamental outlook.

--> On the technical side:

Already gave my general view earlier with the FOMC. In a nutshell: Start of the Capitulation leg or Profit taking from 2016 ...no more no less.

We have 4 solid TA overviews already in the thread so we follow them as reference for today. Earleone, goosebone, Replicant, chester123 will track your view so expecting your views updates and wrap up after the fact.

--> For the actual flows (Euro only):

We have a guest live poster for today flow @SorinAQ ...so the room is all yours ...

GL all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,788
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:28am Jan 6, 2017 7:28am
The price action since past two days is bullish for sure... Not sure the reason, someone is expecting a big FLOP????
  • #146,789
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:29am Jan 6, 2017 7:29am
No flows today ....

GL all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,790
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:33am Jan 6, 2017 7:33am
Slight miss on the headline, slight better on the review. Unemployment, Wages, earnings and the rest solid for the year....

Inline as expected....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,791
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:36am Jan 6, 2017 7:36am
AHE up a bit. Jobs number lowish inline. No entry for me that I can see from this point. See what equities think about it.
  • #146,792
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:37am Jan 6, 2017 7:37am
Quoting sisse
. Earleone, goosebone, Replicant, chester123 will track your view so expecting your views updates and wrap up after the fact....
Quoting Replicant
Only a major flop/strong undershoot (not expected) will be a 'no go', killing March hikes and triggering Profit Taking in DOLLAR, with a pullback to the mid-term flip. Anything else, inline/slightly undershoot (expected) or strong overshoot (less expected) is just simple continuation to the mid-term targets. More importantly, eyes on the Average Hourly Earnings as Labor Inflation and more generally Inflation data will be Key this year ; any signs of inflation speeding up being taken very seriously by the FED, especially in the context...
Quoting Replicant
Inline/slightly undershoot and we are set for a mini ziz-zag play 1,061x->1,066x/1,072x->1,019x strong overshoot and it's a direct play 1,061x->1,019x
Employment slighlty undershoot as expected & strong report on wages

mid-term flows back on the table but no zigzag to 1,066x-1,072x area so far...
  • #146,793
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:42am Jan 6, 2017 7:42am
...that was it for the micro knee jerk reaction ...now NY to see if we have a mover today. ...Watch-out Yen for the open ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,794
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:46am Jan 6, 2017 7:46am
Bought GJ 583 adding higher on micros. Watching gold 1175 to give up.
  • #146,795
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:49am Jan 6, 2017 7:49am
@sisse With these reports behind us are you now looking to see if (more) capitulation/pt shows in the coming sessions? Is your inclination that there will be some of this with the inline somewhat neutral results of the reports, less than you would be looking for had there been a decent flop but more than if it was an overshoot? And do you look for it solely based on mid term targets mostly reached? Almost like a macro version of don't be a dick for a tick rule? Just want to understand that better. Thanks
  • #146,796
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:54am Jan 6, 2017 7:54am
Got filled on the one 1-0615 ( 10 pips below )

Looks like the USD bulls ( me including ) are coming in again. News was IMO inline. Interesting now to see if NY agree. Anyway are in good position with the one order that I got a fill on. ( I hope someone else got it too as I described some weeks ago how I try to catch this spikes )

PS ( I also got a fill on gold )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,797
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:55am Jan 6, 2017 7:55am
Quoting goosebone
@sisse With these reports behind us are you now looking to see if (more) capitulation/pt shows in the coming sessions? Is your inclination that there will some of this with the inline somewhat neutral results of the reports, less than you would be looking for had there been a decent flop but more than if it was an overshoot? And do you look for it solely based on mid term targets mostly reached? Almost like a macro version of don't be a dick for a tick rule? Just want to understand that better. Thanks
Put it in perspective. We are talking about a potential capitulation move of 800 ticks. It wont happen in a couple of session alone. What was/is in play with the FOMC/NFP combo until the W roll is the potential beginning of that move.

The reports by themselves is inline with expectations (expectations were solid numbers) and as we mentioned before has 'NOTHING' in play from the fundamental side. Whatever is the final outcome of the current flow is based on the macro fundamentals already in the table since last Nov and the actual flow with NY is purely technical not based on this particular report this or that ...


I hope it helps ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,798
  • Edited 8:16am Jan 6, 2017 8:03am | Edited 8:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Put it in perspective. We are talking about a potential capitulation move of 800 ticks. It wont happen in a couple of session alone. What was/is in play with the FOMC/NFP combo until the W roll is the potential beginning of that move. The reports by themselves is inline with expectations (expectations were solid numbers) and as we mentioned before has 'NOTHING' in play from the fundamental side. Whatever is the final outcome of the current flow is based on the macro fundamentals already in the table since last Nov and the actual flow with...
Got it. Thanks. Zooming out with that. You don't steer an ocean liner around because theres a tiny floating bottle in its path.
  • #146,799
  • Jan 6, 2017 8:06am Jan 6, 2017 8:06am
Quoting Earleone
Got filled on the one 1-0615 ( 10 pips below ) Looks like the USD bulls ( me including ) are coming in again. News was IMO inline. Interesting now to see if NY agree. Anyway are in good position with the one order that I got a fill on. ( I hope someone else got it too as I described some weeks ago how I try to catch this spikes ) PS ( I also got a fill on gold ) {image}
.

Quoting Replicant
...Inline/slightly undershoot and we are set for a mini ziz-zag play 1,061x->1,066x/1,072x->1,019x ...
Not filled here. Cancelling pending LMT SELL 1.0660 STP 1.0730 (missed in the knee jerk reaction) as going back in this area will be now imo a signal of more PT coming
  • #146,800
  • Jan 6, 2017 8:37am Jan 6, 2017 8:37am
Quoting janpec1000
Bought GJ 583 adding higher on micros. Watching gold 1175 to give up.
Solid soft flops across the market, closed partial profits 30% on GJ longs, EN longs, Gold shorts, leaving the rest afloat. Micro flip incoming for now before it decides any further moves.
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