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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,761
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:39am Jan 5, 2017 11:39am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home in a very strong session across the board with markets exercising maximum pain in the short term. Well done all Euro longs that rode it from 1.04xx handle. Here a rather poor day so far. In the Euro aggressively trailing position to the lows of the 1.07x handle and not much to do with the rest as there is pointless to close position at these levels so let it play out if they hold until NFP before taking action. sisse {quote} We don't know. Nobody knows. The point was/is: 'Where there's smoke, there's fire' ...is based on experience...
Greetings Sisse,
Looks like I got it wrong again
  • #146,762
  • Jan 5, 2017 12:25pm Jan 5, 2017 12:25pm
Glad I lost my machine gun last year. I am still not in a trade as I have been in the past. Waiting. It can go higher but looking for a test of the highs around .068x/.0700 area.

.070x handle locked for now and that is why I was looking for a position at the last highs if it warrants a position as a natural stop in that level would be better r:r. I wanted to see how the .049x/051x area held. It didn't.
  • #146,763
  • Jan 5, 2017 12:37pm Jan 5, 2017 12:37pm
Quoting sisse
So if you were looking to add/reload/enter before NFP fading 1.049x your natural stop got a lot wider (as high as the the highs of the 1.06xx handle) meaning +/- 200 ticks (very expensive) for a target 1.017x (+/- 300) and max ext 0.98xx (+/- 500) meaning a extremely expensive ticket risk / reward wise (r:r 1.5 which is barely acceptable for a swing ...obvisuly assuming you were not holding any positions from above) and max ext (r:r 2.2 which is ok).

Don't forget, this is a mid term area in play and what you should be looking first is how to manage risk first before you make a decision...so to your question. The breach made a lot more expensive the tickets because natural stops got 150 ticks higher than before the breach ....

It will be very easy to see this in a chart ...we'l do it after the fact so you can compare and contrast...
Much clearer, many thanks! Looking forward to the after the fact comparison.
  • #146,764
  • Jan 5, 2017 1:17pm Jan 5, 2017 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
...somebody large is clearing 'quietly' and by experience that means major movers and shakers cooking in the background.... sisse
May be it's related to China's debt risk and the devaluation of yuan?
  • #146,765
  • Edited 3:17pm Jan 5, 2017 2:45pm | Edited 3:17pm
I am aware of the idea that China would sell USD and buy EUR to rebalance their reserves and to keep the USDCNY from rocketing too high. I wouldn't be able to say if this is the case, all I know is that this was a broad USD sell off...

I think he means large hands clearing longs so as to not get caught in a momentum play/capitulation move. So if I were to guess who those large hands would be: I think it would be large investment funds that are still holding EURUSD longs or are interested to rebalance to more USD denominated assets.

If I said something really stupid I hope that Sisse will correct it as many of us can use some more enlightenment.

When Sisse says trailing positions, does it mean existing short positions? Where you not long at all? I still have some questions about the roll play...
  • #146,766
  • Jan 5, 2017 3:00pm Jan 5, 2017 3:00pm
Quoting SorinAQ
I think he means large hands clearing shorts so as to not get caught in a momentum play/capitulation move.
If you are holding a short you cannot be caught in a momentum play/capitulation move. Because the momentum play/capitulation move will be in the downside direction.
You can be caught in a squeeze however
  • #146,767
  • Jan 5, 2017 3:18pm Jan 5, 2017 3:18pm
meant to say longs, corrected it
  • #146,768
  • Jan 5, 2017 3:36pm Jan 5, 2017 3:36pm
Quoting SorinAQ
meant to say longs, corrected it
if large hands are clearing longs, then the price would go down, not up
  • #146,769
  • Edited 4:08pm Jan 5, 2017 3:57pm | Edited 4:08pm
Strong Dollar moves in the last 2 days, no doubt about it. Euro, Yen and to lesser extend Sterling held strongly giving the benefit of the doubt to Dollar bears for tomorrow NFP...until then ...

sisse

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} May be it's related to China's debt risk and the devaluation of yuan?
Indeed, Chinese moves were major and we didn't really discussed live in the thread. I personally underestimated the size and scope of those flows but definitively was/is a major market event in play.

Quoting SorinAQ
.... I still have some questions about the roll play...
You sound full of doubts in the last few pages. I have the feeling you are caught in a uncomfortable position. My 2 cents, try to step down for a minute. Start from the macro to the micro both in FA and TA.

--> Go back to the mid term chart (thats the one in play at these levels). We haven't change a thing since last spring/summer when we changed the outlook to neutral. Maps (/charts in general) DON'T change as often as you are assuming they change.

--> We are trading the same map, same levels, same trades (if you are still holding either from 1.13xx [doubt any around here] and from the mid 1.07xx from the FED DEC [a few in this thread]).

--> As we anticipated since we cleared 1.037x target and especially with the Yearly close, short term volatility has expanded (we are trading a wide chop zone...). Check the chart about position management, pay especially attention to the accumulation/distribution parts (don't confuse them with S/R).

--> The current flow we are discussing come from the FOMC minutes and was/is for the NFP play. Short term as wide the range may appear right now, is still short. Nothing has changed at least until tomorrow (first mover and shaker of the year) we are trading same maps, same levels, same trades (if you are already in reloading/adding/or new shorts from the 1.052x / 9x area [quite a few here] or if you are trading the pullback and still holding longs from 1.04xx (a few here in the thread).

--> You are assuming things we discuss here change every other day. The last update in the Euro is a imminent break down alert for the exhaustion leg in the mid term [which is still in play obviously] this week, thats about it. Short term last update was with the FED clearing first [first in my map, second in the outsource map we did live in the thread] target 1,037x.

--> On your roll play. Put a note in todays roll. Lets talk later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,770
  • Edited 5:00pm Jan 5, 2017 4:08pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting roobii
{quote} Whats your take on this because I've been watching the candle closes a lot lately and on the weekly time frame we are only testing the week open candle at that .630 area and by the end of the week it will be just a wick with a bear candle closing around the lows
Well, I guess this is how I'm looking at it at the moment. The chart is ahead of itself since the last candle isn't done cooking yet but I think the resistance zone, if I've done it right, will be important for this candle close. Closing into that zone could be short term bullish. In the zone and closing back out would feel like a false break but worth watching if the new high breaks north of the high 4 weeks back at just under 1.07. Staying under 1.065 would have me gunning for the support zone to see what happens there. This PA stuff is something I'm trying to get a handle on, so apologies if this is either totally obvious or just way off. I know it's second nature to many around here.
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  • #146,771
  • Jan 5, 2017 4:38pm Jan 5, 2017 4:38pm
I am comfortable with the 1.06 level in eurusd. I am holding positions from before that are in the green. (See what I did here: I didn't say what I hold, where I got in, where I would take profit. Sometimes it seems a bit of a taboo here to say words like up, down, long, short, buy, sell).

As for the roll play, I would have assumed it would mean entering short at the 1.049x daily close (now I learn that it wouldn't have been a good idea anyway), maybe now at 1.06 (from what I've learned still not a good idea?), so I wonder what is the relevance of the roll play and watching the daily close at 1.04 a few days ago...
  • #146,772
  • Jan 5, 2017 4:46pm Jan 5, 2017 4:46pm
Quoting SorinAQ
Sometimes it seems a bit of a taboo here to say words like up, down, long, short, buy, sell). ...
Idk. I post entries/exits and all the details here a lot. Never felt that was discouraged by anyone. I've gotten a great deal of excellent feedback that way.
  • #146,773
  • Jan 5, 2017 5:22pm Jan 5, 2017 5:22pm
Quoting SorinAQ
I ....Sometimes it seems a bit of a taboo here to say words like up, down, long, short, buy, sell). As for the roll play, I would have assumed it would mean entering short at the 1.049x daily close (now I learn that it wouldn't have been a good idea anyway), maybe now at 1.06 (from what I've learned still not a good idea?), so I wonder what is the relevance of the roll play and watching the daily close at 1.04 a few days ago...
I think you are getting confused in the conversations. Details here, some that asked live:

Quoting sisse
.... In the thread we have discussed 3 basic price based triggers setups: Fading an entry, roll play and momentum play (all are terms coined here but I'm sure there is a prolly one million ways others use to describe the same concepts. Don't like to chew it too much, there is a lot of hints and nuggets in the backposts. In general:....
We had a roll play example in January the 3er on the close . Those who caught it long made a flawless trade. Not me, not here, not for most around and if you are following the thread for long you will know that I personally will never blindly trade a bottom when both short and mid term are in sell trading at 13 years old fresh breach of lows and with all FA against it.

Then we got the FOMC/NFP flow is currently in play until tomorrow. Fading the overshoot above 1.049x wasn't any roll play. It was, is/was the simple trade for the NFP play. Nothing more nothing else. The play is for a mid term leg to 1.017x with max extension 0.98xx.

Eventing else we discussed was related on how expensive those tickets got after we broke 1.052x as it unlocked as high as (as it was clear in the TA call for the flow] the last highs 1.067x [we are trading this leg part RIGHT NOW] because the R:R went very poor for those who loaded between 1.052x / 1.059x [check my calls and those other 3 that called it live BEFORE the news].

The highlight was to make it clear that in RED ZONE (we are trading extremely expensive ticket in mid term] for those who have been following every single leg this since the Spring 2016...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can skin the cat in one million way. The point of the last 8 months is not showing the UNIQUE and only Holy Grail but it has been following and trading/sectioning a macro mid term swing in tradable short term pieces that guarantee you a quantifiable, consistent and repeatable approach with minimum risk and maximun W %...

...don't expect me or any other that jump and share live in in the conversations to chew it down even single micro trade available. However, what we usually do (as the last 57 and tomorrow 58 macro moves) in the last 2 years is call it, analyzed and mrs of the time trade it live ....everything else is for your own consumption...

My suggestion, one more time. Instead of waiting for monkey buy here and sell there, is try to jump in live either with analysis, questions, trades of ideas that keep most of the macro swings (in any market) conversation alive to keep tracking and trading. ...

I invite you tomorrow to call the flow for NFP live before the fact, on the announcement and after ...doesn't matter right or wrong. I got the feeling you will get a better understanding of what we are discussing and I am sure we all we'll benefit from your view....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,774
  • Jan 5, 2017 5:55pm Jan 5, 2017 5:55pm
The rejection off the lows on January 3rd, was a pretty clear setup. The very good US data and the fact that we made fresh 14 year lows threw me off. I don't want to get into a machine gun approach so it's fine. But I still wanted to learn something from this as I when I read about the roll play setup the eurusd was already almost 100 pips off the lows and I thought it concerned a short setup.
  • #146,775
  • Jan 5, 2017 6:15pm Jan 5, 2017 6:15pm
Quoting sisse
Then we got the FOMC/NFP flow is currently in play until tomorrow. Fading the overshoot above 1.049x wasn't any roll play. It was, is/was the simple trade for the NFP play. Nothing more nothing else.
Sisse,
when you are referring to the "FOMC/NFP flow", do you mean a flow which starts with FOMC and ends before NFP? Or NFP is included?
Thanks
  • #146,776
  • Jan 5, 2017 7:14pm Jan 5, 2017 7:14pm
Happy new year to the thread and all members. I hope we are doing a "maps party" for the NFP flow , always great to read you all and especially the boss

On the fundamental/ technical side

 

  1. Markets and expectations for Rates in 2017 have shifted to the upside since last Dec FOMC and have triggered continuation in the mid-terms legs on the currency board.
  2. Employment trend is strong, very strong, for a while now, and I don't think that much that Markets are waiting for a 'go' from NFP prints today to trigger continuation in DOLLAR. Only a major flop/strong undershoot (not expected) will be a 'no go', killing March hikes and triggering Profit Taking in DOLLAR, with a pullback to the mid-term flip. Anything else, inline/slightly undershoot (expected) or strong overshoot (less expected) is just simple continuation to the mid-term targets.
  3. More importantly, eyes on the Average Hourly Earnings as Labor Inflation and more generally Inflation data will be Key this year ; any signs of inflation speeding up being taken very seriously by the FED, especially in the context of Trumps program coming.


The flows in EU

  1. Major flop/strong undershoot and the completion of the pullback is in play 1,061x -> 1,083x (mt flip) -> ext 1,097x
  2. Inline/slightly undershoot and we are set for a mini ziz-zag play 1,061x->1,066x/1,072x->1,019x
  3. strong overshoot and it's a direct play 1,061x->1,019x

  • #146,777
  • Edited 2:15am Jan 6, 2017 1:46am | Edited 2:15am
good morning guys, here is my NFP map - not exactly the NFP flow but my view how the recent short term leg is gonna develop in context of NFP flow as part of it (gotta say that this ST leg is much more choppier and harder than the one pre-FED/post-election. I guess because its later stage of mid term leg). On FA agree with replicant and sisse.

So (dont get scared by the chart, all is there):

scenario A = flop: direct flow continuation of the roll play, overshoot of the flip, W close on/below the flip, next fundamentally soft week is for soft continuation of the profit taking.
scenario B = inline: not so sure, I think its a micro intraday flow zig-zag to the flop to wait there for more info.
scenario C = overshoot: direct flow to visit my extreme, close the W on/above to wait in narrow chop for the final go ahead down.

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  • #146,778
  • Jan 6, 2017 1:54am Jan 6, 2017 1:54am
Quoting chester123
good morning guys, here is my NFP map - not exactly the NFP flow but my view how the recent short term leg is gonna develop in context of NFP flow as part of it (gotta say that this ST leg is much more choppier and harder than the one pre-FED/post-election. I guess because its later stage of mid term leg). On FA agree with replicant and sisse. So (dont get scared by the chart, all is there): scenario A = flop: direct flow continuation of the roll play, overshoot of the flip, W close on/below the flip, next fundamentally soft week is for soft continuation...
Very nice map Chester
How do you intend to use it? Will you wait for the NFP number and the knee-jerk reaction before entering?
  • #146,779
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:00am Jan 6, 2017 2:00am
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Very nice map Chester How do you intend to use it? Will you wait for the NFP number and the knee-jerk reaction before entering?
Hi, Im still in short term from the last "choose your posion" with partial profits (1st + 2 nd) taken. It seems to me its not the right time to scale in on short term (we still in expensive tickets). However, I may try to play just the flow of NFP with some super small position to just try it live. That would be after the knee jerk reaction in the direction described in my chart = does not show the exact lvls for the NFP flow, only the flow and post-flow in context of short term lvls.
  • #146,780
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:19am Jan 6, 2017 2:19am
USDX is out of the channel. Looking for extension up to the extreme. I include the channel that USDX was trading inside the most of 2016 and new harmonic/ ratio target zone. I think we have a strong new flip above 100.
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