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  • #146,741
  • Jan 5, 2017 4:01am Jan 5, 2017 4:01am
do any1 has sisse's outlook table updated ... anyone ... ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,742
  • Jan 5, 2017 4:32am Jan 5, 2017 4:32am
Quoting primejarvis
do any1 has sisse's outlook table updated ... anyone ... ?
Look the post from STT below here, You can do a search in the RUT in the Forexfactory search engine that should be visible to the left on your screen when you are reading in the thread.

Quoting stt
posting the shared google spreadsheet link that tracks outlook's for different currencies. Some kind soul has already updated for today's changes. Thanks!! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=295008952
Ouch my first post here for the year so I use the opportunity to say thank you to all here and specially Sisse for the valuable lessons and knowledge we got in 2016 and best wishes for 2017 !!!
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,743
  • Jan 5, 2017 4:42am Jan 5, 2017 4:42am
A calm European session with Euro back to square one after a breach 1.049x one more time in the empty hours of the day with pretty much all markets closed. Second time in the last 2 weeks...somebody large is clearing 'quietly' and by experience that means major movers and shakers cooking in the background....

Whatever the case, Euro triggering for the first time this year the traditional 'choose your poison time' for short and mid term leg(s). The breach overnight made tickets a lot more 'expensive' [as it expected to be in this area] but brought nothing new on the table so if you are not already in, is time to take a side, if you are is: same levels, same trades, same all...

First week of the year and already getting fully loaded across the board here ....

Gl all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,744
  • Jan 5, 2017 5:11am Jan 5, 2017 5:11am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} {image}
Nice one. Almost to the tick to RWH before turning south again . Nice levels
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,745
  • Jan 5, 2017 5:17am Jan 5, 2017 5:17am
Quoting sisse
A calm European session with Euro back to square one after a breach 1.049x one more time in the empty hours of the day with pretty much all markets closed. Second time in the last 2 weeks...somebody large is clearing 'quietly' and by experience that means major movers and shakers cooking in the background.... Whatever the case, Euro triggering for the first time this year the traditional 'choose your poison time' for short and mid term leg(s). The breach overnight made tickets a lot more 'expensive' [as it expected to be in this area] but brought...
somebody large is clearing 'quietly? does that mean they are closing down their shorts and positioning themselves for next leg
  • #146,746
  • Jan 5, 2017 5:17am Jan 5, 2017 5:17am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Nice one. Almost to the tick to RWH before turning south again . Nice levels
Yes, was expecting this because of HTMRW. Did not trust direct play, would rather stay out. Always thinking about worse case scenario.
PVSRA
  • #146,747
  • Jan 5, 2017 8:26am Jan 5, 2017 8:26am
Solid numbers keep coming from the US. ADP a slight miss but unemployment claims hit record low levels (a multi-decade low) in the last report before inauguration....

Eyes on the open with all eyes in US Equities that are the only one holding markets from the first move of the year. On the ret of the board, nothing new with Euro holding above 1.049x for the open...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,748
  • Jan 5, 2017 8:59am Jan 5, 2017 8:59am
Quoting sisse
A calm European session with Euro back to square one after a breach 1.049x one more time in the empty hours of the day with pretty much all markets closed. Second time in the last 2 weeks...somebody large is clearing 'quietly' and by experience that means major movers and shakers cooking in the background.... Whatever the case, Euro triggering for the first time this year the traditional 'choose your poison time' for short and mid term leg(s). The breach overnight made tickets a lot more 'expensive' [as it expected to be in this area] but brought...
I'm really interested in the above and want to confirm my understanding as correct or confirmation that I'm way out.

1. somebody large clearing quietly - suggests short from above and starting to clear in anticipation of a bottom forming in or around this area with a view to start accumulating long positions in the future.

2. the breach overnight made tickets more expensive - my view is that anyone looking to get short, the breach would have made tickets less expensive (an opportunity to sell towards 1.0590. Are you therefore saying that anyone looking to get long short term, then the breach made the tickets more expensive as ideally you would like to buy below towards 1.04xx

Insight from anyone would be greatly appreciated.
  • #146,749
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:38am Jan 5, 2017 9:38am
Quoting suntan
{quote} I'm really interested in the above and want to confirm my understanding as correct or confirmation that I'm way out. 1. somebody large clearing quietly - suggests short from above and starting to clear in anticipation of a bottom forming in or around this area with a view to start accumulating long positions in the future. 2. the breach overnight made tickets more expensive - my view is that anyone looking to get short, the breach would have made tickets less expensive (an opportunity to sell towards 1.0590. Are you therefore saying that...
I was thinking on number 2 there, that before the spike up, it was possible to consider an entry short with a tighter stop. After that spike, stops for short entry would be better placed above it. Perhaps well above it. More to risk or "more expensive ". That explanation is a little close to the market for sisse so I suspect I may be wrong and just not seeing the PA change that the spike presented.
  • #146,750
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:49am Jan 5, 2017 9:49am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I was thinking on number 2 there, that before the spike up, it was possible to consider an entry short with a tighter stop. After that spike, stops for short entry would be better placed above it. Perhaps well above it. More to risk or "more expensive ". That explanation is a little close to the market for sisse so I suspect I may be wrong and just not seeing the PA change that the spike presented.

I kind of agree with this... what I take from it is that
perhaps in terms of short term ... tickets were cheap and still are but because we broke out that range and into the midterm range .... you can no longer look at short term levels in terms of risk but mid term levels which would increase the risk aka more expensive.... forest for the trees situation that smart money is taking out the early bulls perhaps
  • #146,751
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:53am Jan 5, 2017 9:53am
Quoting roobii
{quote} I kind of agree with this... what I take from it is that perhaps in terms of short term ... tickets were cheap and still are but because we broke out that range and into the midterm range .... you can no longer look at short term levels in terms of risk but mid term levels which would increase the risk aka more expensive.... forest for the trees situation that smart money is taking out the early bulls perhaps
I think you got it there. Sounds right to me.
  • #146,752
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:57am Jan 5, 2017 9:57am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I think you got it there. Sounds right to me.
Whats your take on this because I've been watching the candle closes a lot lately and on the weekly time frame we are only testing the week open candle at that .630 area and by the end of the week it will be just a wick with a bear candle closing around the lows
  • #146,753
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:15am Jan 5, 2017 10:15am
@goosebone @roobii

Many thanks for the replies - yes hadn't thought about it like that, increased risk on taking a short position due to the increased range. Makes more sense now.
  • #146,754
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:03am Jan 5, 2017 11:03am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Nice one. Almost to the tick to RWH before turning south again . Nice levels
Geez! Ask me if we came there...AGAIN!
Now this is either ranging and will continue down or break up, so tight stop definitly a must. If break up theeeeeeeeeeeen someone wants higher price for shorting infront of ECB! Enought time until then and if my stop hit I'll wait for just before ECB and look again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4.png Size: 63 KB
PVSRA
  • #146,755
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:08am Jan 5, 2017 11:08am
Quoting sisse
A calm European session with Euro back to square one after a breach 1.049x one more time in the empty hours of the day with pretty much all markets closed. Second time in the last 2 weeks...somebody large is clearing 'quietly' and by experience that means major movers and shakers cooking in the background.... Whatever the case, Euro triggering for the first time this year the traditional 'choose your poison time' for short and mid term leg(s). The breach overnight made tickets a lot more 'expensive' [as it expected to be in this area] but brought...
if someone clearing than he will clear in most active time not in the empty hour.
if some want to move a price at the special level than the empty hours are the best time.
if I see a 1.00 even 0.95 level then what I need, a good price level for sell/short. but all my trade will not in eur/usd I did trade other eur pairs too, and hide my position size. so if the move is in all major eur pairs than it is the serious issue.trading required watching more than 4-6 pair of the same currency pairs to get the direction of flow. lot more on this topic.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #146,756
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:08am Jan 5, 2017 11:08am
I am short around 1.0590 area.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #146,757
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:12am Jan 5, 2017 11:12am
Quoting sisse
A calm European session with Euro back to square one after a breach 1.049x one more time in the empty hours of the day with pretty much all markets closed. Second time in the last 2 weeks...somebody large is clearing 'quietly' and by experience that means major movers and shakers cooking in the background.... Whatever the case, Euro triggering for the first time this year the traditional 'choose your poison time' for short and mid term leg(s). The breach overnight made tickets a lot more 'expensive' [as it expected to be in this area] but brought...
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I was thinking on number 2 there, that before the spike up, it was possible to consider an entry short with a tighter stop. After that spike, stops for short entry would be better placed above it. Perhaps well above it. More to risk or "more expensive ". That explanation is a little close to the market for sisse so I suspect I may be wrong and just not seeing the PA change that the spike presented.

Quoting roobii
{quote} I kind of agree with this... what I take from it is that perhaps in terms of short term ... tickets were cheap and still are but because we broke out that range and into the midterm range .... you can no longer look at short term levels in terms of risk but mid term levels which would increase the risk aka more expensive.... forest for the trees situation that smart money is taking out the early bulls perhaps
Happy new year to you all, it's been a long time. Happy to see you all still here and wish you all the best of luck in 2017.

Always thumbs up to the one who usually gives it to others, Sisse. Very happy to see your valuable inputs still in here.

I think he meant the complete opposite. Expensive tickets for long. Especially since, as I remember reading, he mentioned before that this is the real clearing hands for a long time. That's my interpretation but could be wrong (it's Sisse talking, you need to be inline with his professional insites)
  • #146,758
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:13am Jan 5, 2017 11:13am
Europe going home in a very strong session across the board with markets exercising maximum pain in the short term. Well done all Euro longs that rode it from 1.04xx handle.

Here a rather poor day so far. In the Euro aggressively trailing position to the lows of the 1.07x handle and not much to do with the rest as there is pointless to close position at these levels so let it play out if they hold until NFP before taking action.

sisse

Quoting suntan
. 1. somebody large clearing quietly - suggests short from above and starting to clear in anticipation of a bottom forming in or around this area with a view to start accumulating long positions in the future.
We don't know. Nobody knows. The point was/is: 'Where there's smoke, there's fire' ...is based on experience rather than on something you can evaluate ....

Quote
... the breach overnight made tickets more expensive - my view is that anyone looking to get short, the breach would have made tickets less expensive (an opportunity to sell towards 1.0590. Are you therefore saying that anyone looking to get long short term, then the breach made the tickets more expensive as ideally you would like to buy below towards 1.04xx

Well the point was the breach 1.052x unlocked the highs. Here:

Quoting sisse
,,,Lows are naked. 1.049x is the only level in play since the FED DEC. 1.041x to wipe soft hands. To the other side, lots of air above the 1.052x until the last highs.[we are here]...
So if you were looking to add/reload/enter before NFP fading 1.049x your natural stop got a lot wider (as high as the the highs of the 1.06xx handle) meaning +/- 200 ticks (very expensive) for a target 1.017x (+/- 300) and max ext 0.98xx (+/- 500) meaning a extremely expensive ticket risk / reward wise (r:r 1.5 which is barely acceptable for a swing ...obvisuly assuming you were not holding any positions from above) and max ext (r:r 2.2 which is ok).

Don't forget, this is a mid term area in play and what you should be looking first is how to manage risk first before you make a decision...so to your question. The breach made a lot more expensive the tickets because natural stops got 150 ticks higher than before the breach ....

It will be very easy to see this in a chart ...we'l do it after the fact so you can compare and contrast...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,759
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:14am Jan 5, 2017 11:14am
Really nice action since FOMC yesterday plenty of setups, few mild squeezes and flops and extended legs to set. GBP unlocking higher targets since early NY session today on GU and crosses especially. Targeting clearout of range on XCAD crosses on upside with foocus on GCAD, and no surprises on NU / XUSD front delivering further higher targets. No bear locks for now, road higher is still opened and clear short term. Focous on GBP on long side short term (+1 maximum LL before new HH), crosses mostly.
  • #146,760
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:17am Jan 5, 2017 11:17am
what is the difference between price and market? why we see sometimes large rubber band type moves in one direction.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
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