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  • #146,721
  • Jan 3, 2017 11:23pm Jan 3, 2017 11:23pm
So this roll play today means, long EUR?? Since European session was selling and NY was buying the dips we see the reverse of that in the next few sessions???
  • #146,722
  • Jan 4, 2017 1:58am Jan 4, 2017 1:58am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Since 07 retail market got flushed out from stocks, that should add some to disconnect. On other hand you have central banks buying up and prompting stock markets which also adds to disconnect in correlation. Also agressive buy backs of stocks from largest corporations that form indexes as DAX or DJ also adds to disconnect.
You probably did not notice that during the period preceded decrease of correlation function prime rates fell from 8.25% to 3.25%.
  • #146,723
  • Jan 4, 2017 5:09am Jan 4, 2017 5:09am
...and that was it for the European morning session with only one highlight Yen triggering imminent break up alerts to complete the extension aligning the triple combo one more time in the last 2 quarters with Euro, Sterling and Yen in imminent break alerts ....

Not much to see or do. FOMC minutes coming but 2017 will 'officially' start with NFP ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,724
  • Edited 9:03am Jan 4, 2017 8:41am | Edited 9:03am
On the roll play discussion I've noticed whenever the subject comes up, someone (me, Pharmor, yg10, others) links to that posted explanation from sisse, and people tend to focus too much on the NY vs Europe example which complicates it. I believe sisse meant to provide an example of just one way a roll play can occur with that. The general idea I think is less specific to this session or that and more simply related to a calm change in direction that allows for better entry before continuation. The drift up prior to nfp could provide such an opportunity before the weekly roll so, Roll play. I might be wrong of course.
  • #146,725
  • Jan 4, 2017 9:36am Jan 4, 2017 9:36am
That was it for the opening range and day till the FOMC. All markets looks 'al dente' for this week NFP... Last and very few cheap tickets available for the micro flows in Euro, Yen, Gold and US Equities available for today...

sisse

Quoting goosebone
...people tend to focus too much on the NY vs Europe example which complicates it. I believe sisse meant to provide an example of just one way a roll play can occur with that. The general idea I think is less specific to this session or that and more simply related to a calm change in direction that allows for better entry before continuation. The drift up prior to nfp could provide such an opportunity before the weekly roll so, Roll play..... I might be wrong of course.
You are not ...you are on the right track.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,726
  • Edited 10:44am Jan 4, 2017 10:15am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Bam it goes UXMN with decent pop. Closing 70% of longs here, leaving the rest floating. A bit short term correction to USD view, we got mild squeeze there, looking for some higher targets intraday now on XUSD for next 2 days, playing from NU mainly.
Higher targets delivered across XUSD as expected with short term squeeze. Now the hunt for higher mid term macro and USD longs begins (on balance of probabilities), prefably on EU or GU, with play on break of 0350 EU. Ill be looking for shorts tomorow preffered area with short term backing around 0500ish/EU.

Nice performance there on MXN, looks like markets werent taking seriously odds of Trump victory or actual wall/policy implementation before elections, considering the pricing ins of all moves since.

Also commennts from France today in regards to debt and EUR, confirming elections as possible major impact play no matter of direction.
  • #146,727
  • Jan 4, 2017 11:40am Jan 4, 2017 11:40am
Lets open the first report flow trade of the year. Anybody wants to take the plunge and call the map for today/NFP combo?...now is a good time to walk the talk for those who have been asking question with a live call ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,728
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:04pm Jan 4, 2017 12:04pm
Hi Sisse and everyone else,

Will enter the market and buy EURUSD at around 1.03000 this week.

4 hour map:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 144 KB


1 hour map:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1hour.png Size: 124 KB


This is based solely on technical analysis.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #146,729
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:10pm Jan 4, 2017 12:10pm
Quoting sisse
Lets open the first report flow trade of the year. Anybody wants to take the plunge and call the map for today/NFP combo?...now is a good time to walk the talk for those who have been asking question with a live call ... sisse
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4 FOMC-NFP trade plan.png Size: 49 KB
PVSRA
  • #146,730
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:21pm Jan 4, 2017 12:21pm
I need to oversimplify things when it comes to FA since Im pretty new to it. Here's how I'm looking at it:
Most likely no huge shakers coming here. The question I believe is how the minutes and nfp speak to the skepticism that exists re: dot plot expectations (how many hikes, when). So both reports in their own respective ways can make news on that front, or not. My guess is somewhere in the middle so all paths in my map describe what relatively small movement occurs before continuation to targets south.
In order of likelihood in my humble opinion:

A=No real commentary of note in the minutes, inline nfp
B=Some dovish notes in minutes but no shockers, floppish nfp
C=Surprise in minutes, maybe even election implications mentioned? (heretofore to be referred to as a Trumper Tantrum), nfp flop


My thoughts. Likely a rather incomplete analysis but that's what I got.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUJan.png Size: 29 KB
  • #146,731
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:23pm Jan 4, 2017 12:23pm
Shy board ....anybody else before the news...

@Decima I see some channels (boilinger, donchian. keltner MA?) Try to give us some hints of what indicators are you using otherwise is hard to follow/discuss.

So we have a bottom caller at @1300 so lets take that as you are expecting a zigzag up / down / up we go ...

@Fisher755

Not sure H4 will do the trick given the levels in play but looks clear your view ...just two questions:

where is the flip in your chart?

and what flow you expect? direct, zigzag, nothing?

@goosebone

So basically you are permabull?...same question as above where is the flip ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,732
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:35pm Jan 4, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting sisse
@goosebone So basically you are permabull?...same question as above where is the flip ? sisse
No, not perma anything. Not thinking one of these reports will send us straight down into dollar strength though if that's what you mean.
Here's the same chart zoomed out a bit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUJan.png Size: 31 KB
  • #146,733
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:39pm Jan 4, 2017 12:39pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} No, not perma anything. Not thinking one of these reports will send us straight down into dollar strength though if that's what you mean. Here's the same chart zoomed out a bit. {image}
Clear now.... So zigzag it is...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,734
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:42pm Jan 4, 2017 12:42pm
Quoting sisse
@Fisher755 Not sure H4 will do the trick given the levels in play but looks clear your view ...just two questions: where is the flip in your chart? and what flow you expect? direct, zigzag, nothing? sisse
Not so much what I expect- more the fact that I will stay out if I do not get zigzag for cheaper entry. I have pending sell in the short term cheap tickets zone and if hit fine and if not also fine.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiDaily.png Size: 48 KB
PVSRA
  • #146,735
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:46pm Jan 4, 2017 12:46pm
Quoting sisse
Shy board ....anybody else before the news... @Decima I see some channels (boilinger, donchian. keltner MA?) Try to give us some hints of what indicators are you using otherwise is hard to follow/discuss. So we have a bottom caller at @1300 so lets take that as you are expecting a zigzag up / down / up we go ...
Fridays NFP play I expect will trigger the buy limit order at 1.03. Difficult to call bottoms still, this is the level I will enter if the picture looks as now. You are correct in the zigzag expectations.

All indicators are created and programmed personally, the bands/channels should serve the same purpose as the indicators you mentioned. The red shaded area is the upper limit and the green shaded area is the lower limit. Look at it as possible cheap tickets area. The dotted lines are the same for shorter term.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #146,736
  • Edited 1:57pm Jan 4, 2017 12:53pm | Edited 1:57pm
Strong resistance (extreme) 1.065x >> Intermediate resistance 1.055x >> Flip 1.046x >> Intermediate support 1.03* >> Strong support (extreme) 1.017x

*I would have said strong support, but Sisse says lows are naked so I added a lower level (1.017X) that I remember seeing in one of his posts. I realize that this probably makes the range too big for just this week but I have no time (or knowledge) to do any better right now.

As for FA the minutes could show some usd bullish inflation talk, as at the December meeting we had some voting hawks that will not be voting in 2017 (a discussion for another time maybe).
  • #146,737
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:53pm Jan 4, 2017 12:53pm
My view in a nutshell:..

Simple direct plays. Profit taking or Capitulation.

Flops (less expected) from the US is PT for 2016 to clear all remaining mid term positions .

Dollar carrying the board with Equities for a first realistic capitulation chance in the Euro since the break down 1.24xx.

Lows are naked. 1.049x is the only level in play since the FED DEC. 1.041x to wipe soft hands. To the other side, lots of air above the 1.052x until the last highs....

Flow extends to the NFP/W combo...

GL all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,738
  • Jan 4, 2017 1:09pm Jan 4, 2017 1:09pm
Inline with hawkish expects. Nothing new.

Eyes on Equities for the close.

siaae
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,739
  • Jan 4, 2017 1:50pm Jan 4, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting sisse
My view in a nutshell:.. Simple direct plays. Profit taking or Capitulation. Flops (less expected) from the US is PT for 2016 to clear all remaining mid term positions . Dollar carrying the board with Equities for a first realistic capitulation chance in the Euro since the break down 1.24xx. Lows are naked. 1.049x is the only level in play since the FED DEC. 1.041x to wipe soft hands. To the other side, lots of air above the 1.052x until the last highs.... Flow extends to the NFP/W combo... GL all... sisse
It looks like direct play it is. Cancelled my pending short, but still glad because I re-loaded NU short I started last year. Yee haw! And seriously good setup for UJ longs, so re-entered there too.
PVSRA
  • #146,740
  • Jan 4, 2017 3:57pm Jan 4, 2017 3:57pm
....and we are rolling 1.049x to the tick ....surprise surprise .... je je je .... Uneventful session in a uneventful inline report ...


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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