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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,241
  • Jan 3, 2017 1:23pm Jan 3, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Almost 100% retracement of B period... Now watch out because we are above the lower main composite poc. If ther will be no continuation upside: back to the lower composite poc at 2233. While if continuation we have space to correct both the upper double pass gaps. and all the poor highs left by previous weak sessions.
Quoting Lock
{quote} 17:45+1GMT First double pass pit gap removed: price tagged exactly yesterday pit session unchanged at 2273. If we will have acceptation inside yesterday very little range we could aim at its poor high 2295. If rejected back to the lower composite poc.

20:23+1GMT
Price rejected inside yesterday pit range and, after some balance, here we are at the lower composite poc at 2233...
I hope you will appreciate the importance of market generated information.
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  • #2,242
  • Jan 3, 2017 1:57pm Jan 3, 2017 1:57pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} 20:23+1GMT Price rejected inside yesterday pit range and, after some balance, here we are at the lower composite poc at 2233... I hope you will appreciate the importance of market generated information.
Yes I do.... it looks so easy as I read it. But it's a crime to do it by myself....well I'm still in the competent chapter. And I need to read and understand it again and again and again. With your info it makes more and more sense

There will come a moment that I can interpret it in a way you do
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,243
  • Jan 3, 2017 2:02pm Jan 3, 2017 2:02pm
In the meantime I have a small question I hope you can look to it.

In the book "Mind over Markets" are plotted a lot of marketprofiles but they nearly all goes from A untill M....huh... and that must then represent one full day?!
But from A untill M that are 13 different letters. So where are the half hours TPO's?

Maybe I missed something in the book but I can't find a good explanation for it...Do you maybe have one? Maybe just for the simplicity...?

I guess you also asked this question ones....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,244
  • Jan 3, 2017 2:09pm Jan 3, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting HappyMe
In the meantime I have a small question I hope you can look to it. In the book "Mind over Markets" are plotted a lot of marketprofiles but they nearly all goes from A untill M....huh... and that must then represent one full day?! But from A untill M that are 13 different letters. So where are the half hours TPO's? Maybe I missed something in the book but I can't find a good explanation for it...Do you maybe have one? I guess you als asked this question ones....

I don't know exactly which charts you are referring to but consider that Dalton normaly uses pit session profiles of future contracts like S&P 500 e-mini or similar like crude, gold etc.. Consequently you have not the periods of overnight activity in those profiles. Also the pit session in futures has not the same lenght of the forex pit session, because there are different times for the close time, consequently you have a different number of periods. Furthermore not all the market profile tools use A as the starting letter and then the final one could differ from chart to chart. Moreover when Dalton wrote the first book most of the current software like CQG or windotrader blue didn't exist or were very different from what they currently are. I don't know the origin of the chart used by Dalton in his early book but I think they come from a very primordial platform.
Best L.
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  • #2,245
  • Jan 3, 2017 2:22pm Jan 3, 2017 2:22pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Yes I do.... it looks so easy as I read it. But it's a crime to do it by myself....well I'm still in the competent chapter. And I need to read and understand it again and again and again. With your info it makes more and more sense There will come a moment that I can interpret it in a way you do

As Dalton used to say: you have never enough of these information. This is the reason why it is a life-long process. After years I still continuosly re-read or re-watch articles, books, charts, webinars, etc. And the curious thing is that any time I find different and new important infomation that the previous times I had not noticed in the same stuff. So my omen is that traders who come here to "learn" will find the needed patience but also the needed enthusiasm to continue to learn considering all this process not as a path to reach something "final" but as a consistent and continuous approach to this work.
Best again, L.
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  • #2,246
  • Edited 3:36pm Jan 3, 2017 2:34pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} I don't know exactly which charts you are referring to but consider that Dalton normaly uses pit session profiles of future contracts like S&P 500 e-mini or similar like crude, gold etc.. Consequently you have not the periods of overnight activity in those profiles. Also the pit session in futures has not the same lenght of the forex pit session, because there are different times for the close time, consequently you have a different number of periods. Furthermore not all the market profile tools use A as the starting letter and then the...
Well there are falling things together I believe.....
You also look at the bigger trade-times GB and US-pit session and are looking for gaps between them, balance between them etc...etc..

I then also think it's important that we consider the difference in balance seen from the same sessions GB to GB session and US-pit to US-pit session. If we consider the difference in balance between the GB-session and US-pit session then we compare some different things with eachother in terms of expectations and probabilities.....am I correct with that?

Do I understand it correct that Mr. Dalton is only showing the US-pit session in the profile and that's it?
The rest of the time then he must be off trading I guess...after the first 2 TPO's of the new pit-session then he is making his plan again...etc....etc... and monitoring the developing between the old US-Pit session(s) and the new one.... ?!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,247
  • Jan 4, 2017 1:06am Jan 4, 2017 1:06am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well there are falling things together I believe..... You also look at the bigger trade-times GB and US-pit session and are looking for gaps between them, balance between them etc...etc.. I then also think it's important that we consider the difference in balance seen from the same sessions GB to GB session and US-pit to US-pit session. If we consider the difference in balance between the GB-session and US-pit session then we compare some different things with eachother in terms of expectations and probabilities.....am I correct with...
Correct.

Quoting HappyMe
Do I understand it correct that Mr. Dalton is only showing the US-pit session in the profile and that's it? The rest of the time then he must be off trading I guess...after the first 2 TPO's of the new pit-session then he is making his plan again...etc....etc... and monitoring the developing between the old US-Pit session(s) and the new one.... ?!
Mr. Dalton used also overnight profile for 2 main reasons: for the lower and higher extreme of the overnight profile as references (and overnight for him means: Sydney+Tokyo+GB+preUS) and for the inventories imbalances that could have been made during overnight. This second aspect is very important and I wrote about it many times: generally what happened during overnight is done by weaker hands so the pit session participants in case of inventories long or short made during overnight could profit going against them.

There is also an other particular important aspect of overnight profiles: a double distribution profile could mean that something important occurred during overnight. So in this particular case it takes note of this occurrence. And finally overnight profiles are very meaningfull when creating gaps for upcoming pit sessions. Also in this case a gap because it is considered a form of excess, could underline the fact that a shift in thinking could have happened during overnight: obviously this possible "shift" in thinking has to be confirmed by the upcoming pit session that could have the power to reject it.
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  • #2,248
  • Jan 4, 2017 1:23am Jan 4, 2017 1:23am
17/01/04 WEDNESDAY 08:23+1GMT (edited untill 08:27)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday we tested the low of december: I don't know if it has been a good probe. If this was the case we could also consider a significant correction upside because at the bottom of a 2 months balance we could also find mid term participants.
Consider anyway that in weekly and daily timeframes we are currently in one timeframing lower mode so we are in a mid term down trend: so we got conflicting information here.

Yesterday we removed a lot of weaknesses downside while we significantly left the weaknesses above intact: this does not mean that we have to go higher and take out all those weaknesses but it means that one of our scenarios should include also this possibility.

For upcoming GB session we still have the possibility to go down and fill the old double pass (down to 2193) but right now we are in the middle of yesterday GB session range: so if it will open inside it we could expect initial acceptation of it and eventually tests above and/or below it.

Main refs for today are clearly the same 2 main composite pocs underligned yesterday at 2285 and 2233. Note that Tokyo spent alsmost its entire session in a one timeframe higher mode: so let's see how GB will react to this inventories imbalance.
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  • #2,249
  • Jan 4, 2017 1:46am Jan 4, 2017 1:46am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Correct. {quote} Mr. Dalton used also overnight profile for 2 main reasons: for the lower and higher extreme of the overnight profile as references (and overnight for him means: Sydney+Tokyo+GB+preUS) and for the inventories imbalances that could have been made during overnight. This second aspect is very important and I wrote about it many times: generally what happened during overnight is done by weaker hands so the pit session participants in case of inventories long or short made during overnight could profit going against them. There...
Thanks for the answers, it cleared some questions I struggled with
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,250
  • Jan 4, 2017 2:14am Jan 4, 2017 2:14am
Quoting Lock
17/01/04 WEDNESDAY 08:23+1GMT (edited untill 08:27) EARLY MORNING REPORT ... Main refs for today are clearly the same 2 main composite pocs underligned yesterday at 2285 and 2233. Note that Tokyo spent alsmost its entire session in a one timeframe higher mode: so let's see how GB will react to this inventories imbalance.
Here we are at the higher composite poc 2285. Note that 2289 is the pit year open while 22862 is exactly the yesterday GB year (sorry for the typo) open and current A period tagged it at the pip...
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  • #2,251
  • Edited 3:02am Jan 4, 2017 2:39am | Edited 3:02am
Some notes about balance.

When a market opens inside the previous session range generally participants involved are day timeframes traders. Consequently the references used by this kind of participants are generally very exact and easily visible references: such participants will tend to perform very exact mechanical trades at those levels. So on this particular case: where did the market open? Inside yetserday GB range. Which kind of participants will be at least initially involved in such environment? Day timeframe traders. What kind of references did they use to trade from start? Very exact references like the yesterday GB open price, the overnight high, the current half back etc.
Is this clear? Do you see what I see?

Furthermore one of the 2 most important concept in trading is "balance": are we in balance or outside balance? Price opened inside yesterday balance: isn't it? yes. So we are in balance. Generally when a market is in balance your expectation should be modest, at least initially, as at the contrary when a market is outside balance your expectation could be bigger.
Why? Because a market in balance is waiting for information in order to decide where to take the next directional movement: so at least initially it will spend some time to search for the needed information. At the contrary in an out of balance situation a change is already occurred: price is outside the previous accepted range and far from the previous fairest price at which business occurred previously (the poc).
In this second situation the possibilities are 2: continuation in the direction of the outside action from balance(so continuation of the directional move in searching for a new place at which a double side business could occur) or come back inside the previous balance.
These are the reasons why in a balance environment you have not to search, initially and generally, for a big action while instead in an out of balance situation you could search for a good move just at the start of the session.

Note that unexperienced traders, unaware of these basic concepts, lost most of their financial and psychological capitals trying to make positions right at the start of any session without any consideration of the contest in which they are going to operate.
If you cannot stay calm, if you cannot stay without doing anything, do what I do: place random positions on a demo or in a fake account, continuously observing the market. Then, when finally the occasion will occur, make your trades with the real account. Consider that generally during a session you will find at least 2 or 3 day timeframe occasions to trade so if you made, let's say 30 trades in the same amount of time, you are probably simply going to lose your account. And more importantly you are going to lose any confidence in your capability as a trader.
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  • #2,252
  • Jan 4, 2017 3:16am Jan 4, 2017 3:16am
A high at yesterday open, B high at overnight high, current C high at open.. Do you see who is in controll of this market?

Then C high at half back/yes unchanged...
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  • #2,253
  • Jan 4, 2017 5:17am Jan 4, 2017 5:17am
Quoting Lock
A high at yesterday open, B high at overnight high, current C high at open.. Do you see who is in controll of this market? Then C high at half back/yes unchanged...
and then it just changed in an Open-Auction. No conviction at all at the moment..

also within the value-area of yesterday GB-session.... so it looks nicely balanced for now and is waiting for more information
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,254
  • Jan 4, 2017 5:57am Jan 4, 2017 5:57am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} and then it just changed in an Open-Auction. No conviction at all at the moment.. also within the value-area of yesterday GB-session.... so it looks nicely balanced for now and is waiting for more information {image}
Exactly and now G is inside F and H is currently inside G: possible break from here.
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  • #2,255
  • Jan 4, 2017 6:06am Jan 4, 2017 6:06am
Quoting Lock
A high at yesterday open, B high at overnight high, current C high at open.. Do you see who is in control of this market? Then C high at half back/yes unchanged...
Quoting Lock
{quote} Exactly and now G is inside F and H is currently inside G: possible break from here.
13:06+1GMT
And after 5 periods of substantial balance and G inside period, here's the break:
Weak refs above all taken out. What a big surprise, isn't it?
If you know, or at least, if you have an idea of who is in control of a market, how weak or strong "he" is, you have a significant edge against your competitors.
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  • #2,256
  • Jan 4, 2017 6:07am Jan 4, 2017 6:07am
BTW do not forget that G and H lows are at yesterday GB close price as F low is at round 2250: carry these info forward if something will go wrong upside.
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  • #2,257
  • Jan 4, 2017 6:12am Jan 4, 2017 6:12am
i keep trying but struggle to follow your reasoning and analysis.
is there anything you recommend i study to gain a better understanding of what you are saying?
  • #2,258
  • Jan 4, 2017 6:13am Jan 4, 2017 6:13am
Note that the current move up had 2 possible enties: the first one was when F probed below yesterday GB range and failed continuation downside, while the second one was above the G inside period, when H period broke above it.
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  • #2,259
  • Jan 4, 2017 6:18am Jan 4, 2017 6:18am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} 13:06+1GMT And after 5 periods of substantial balance and G inside period, here's the break: Weak refs above all taken out. What a big surprise, isn't it? If you know, or at least, if you have an idea of who is in control of a market, how weak or strong "he" is, you have a significant edge against your competitors.
Yes it was a surprise....for me.... I was focussed on the downside..... mhhh. I have to study the last post again....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,260
  • Jan 4, 2017 6:19am Jan 4, 2017 6:19am
Quoting behram
i keep trying but struggle to follow your reasoning and analysis. is there anything you recommend i study to gain a better understanding of what you are saying?
A lot: start with the market profile manual. Then read all the books made by Jim Dalton, P.Steidlmayer and T.Alexander. Then read and study all the articles you may find on the net done by these masters. Then watch and study all their webinars, multiple times. Then start with a demo account to made tests. Eventually start to build your real trading experience with a small account. Generally this process is a life-time one. But you should improve your skills after the first years: it mostly depend upon your envolvement and your sincere interest in this work. In any case after these readings you'll never watch the market in the same way you are currently doing now: and I assure you that this will be a great pleasure for yourself.
Best L.
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