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Price-Structure-Order flow

  • #161
  • Jan 3, 2017 11:17am Jan 3, 2017 11:17am
Finally, WTI crude - long:
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This trade is a left over from 2016 the last and final piece of a long trade taken in November. Price has moved to a new high at the close of the year, creating a higher high and closing the year there. I moved my stop up to lock 679 pips and over this last 15 min it appears price is challenging that stop.

I am bullish on this market for a number of reasons, but the technical side is showing now, higher low (July 2016) and now a higher high in December. So even if I stop on this trade, I will be looking for any long signal to trade higher prices.
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  • #162
  • Jan 3, 2017 11:44am Jan 3, 2017 11:44am
Quoting DonPato
Finally, WTI crude - long: {image} This trade is a left over from 2016 the last and final piece of a long trade taken in November. Price has moved to a new high at the close of the year, creating a higher high and closing the year there. I moved my stop up to lock 679 pips and over this last 15 min it appears price is challenging that stop. I am bullish on this market for a number of reasons, but the technical side is showing now, higher low (July 2016) and now a higher high in December. So even if I stop on this trade, I will be looking for any...
I agree with your long term bullish stance, but if this small pull back turns into a sizable retrace it will be nothing but healthly for the over all direction "long term" personally i have a small short target and am looking for reentry 47.xx or lower if need be .......... but long term agree with your 60.xx target .

BTW great profit lock on your current OIL trade, nice job
  • #163
  • Jan 3, 2017 12:01pm Jan 3, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting nutts
{quote} I agree with your long term bullish stance, but if this small pull back turns into a sizable retrace it will be nothing but healthly for the over all direction "long term" personally i have a small short target and am looking for reentry 47.xx or lower if need be .......... but long term agree with your 60.xx target . BTW great profit lock on your current OIL trade, nice job
Not sure where you got in, but it looks like your short is working well. Good luck with that and we'll see you on the bullish reversal.
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  • #164
  • Jan 3, 2017 12:14pm Jan 3, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Not sure where you got in, but it looks like your short is working well. Good luck with that and we'll see you on the bullish reversal.
Thank you , but my entry was 30th dec abit pre mature , so had a white knuckle ride this am . Keeping it for the short term to target 47.xx then the " bullish reversal"
  • #165
  • Jan 4, 2017 8:31am Jan 4, 2017 8:31am
Update on USD/CAD - Short:
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Looks like the last trade of 2016 has come off with a profit. Take profit was triggered during the night for a 200 pip profit.
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  • #166
  • Jan 4, 2017 9:27am Jan 4, 2017 9:27am
Working on the end of year stats for all trading and now that the last trade on this experiment for 2016 has come off, I thought you might be interested in seeing the equity curve. Remember that this is only for November and December 2016. Clearly November was the better month, but December did end in profit of 4% so...profit is profit.

Please let me know if you would like more stats...I have many and thought those of you who keep these records might be interested.

Let me know
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  • #167
  • Jan 4, 2017 10:58am Jan 4, 2017 10:58am
Hey Don,

Have you incorporated Sam's S&D trading methods onto yours? Seems quite similar, but across MTFs
  • #168
  • Jan 4, 2017 11:05am Jan 4, 2017 11:05am
Quoting Tuk786
Hey Don, Have you incorporated Sam's S&D trading methods onto yours? Seems quite similar, but across MTFs
The short answer is, "no" because I don't know who "Sam" is. However my particular method for trading is quite common and boring. I utilize my view of order flow to try and point point area where I expect that order flow to change from balanced to imbalanced. What usually follows is a rush of orders flooding the market as losers are stopped out. Of course I have (as everyone does) put my own small twists on the idea and have tested it ad nauseum.

The start of this thread was my attempt to bring this idea (methodology) out to larger time frames to make my savings account grow. On my "day job" I use this methodology on the futures market scalping the mini dow on very small volume and tick charts. It works well enough to average a 1%/ day profit most months. Of course there are days when it doesn't work so well...as you may have noticed at the end of this year, when volume and liquidity are very thin.

But it is a simple and quickly understood concept...like chess or the blues...it is easy to learn yet take a life time to master.
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  • #169
  • Jan 4, 2017 11:26am Jan 4, 2017 11:26am
Looking at your trades, looks like you are trading into the supply/demand zone to take profits (could be wrong)... slightly different twist to how Sam Seiden trades S&D. Search him up on google, you will know what I mean.

I am quite new to trading... but one thing I've noticed is that profitable traders have somehow combined PA, S&D and order flow.

I am trying to digest these and come up with my own strategy that suits me around my current commitments.

Keep up the good trading!
  • #170
  • Jan 4, 2017 12:00pm Jan 4, 2017 12:00pm
Quoting Tuk786
Looking at your trades, looks like you are trading into the supply/demand zone to take profits (could be wrong)... slightly different twist to how Sam Seiden trades S&D. Search him up on google, you will know what I mean. I am quite new to trading... but one thing I've noticed is that profitable traders have somehow combined PA, S&D and order flow. I am trying to digest these and come up with my own strategy that suits me around my current commitments. Keep up the good trading!
Hello again Tuk...

The things you mentioned are important, and if you are starting out, I would humbly suggest that you concentrate on Order flow. From the study and understanding of order flow comes everything else. Supply vs Demand and "price action" are all results of order flow. Again it is a simple concept that you unconsciously act on every day in the supermarket, at the gas station, when buying a house etc. It is intuitive and makes sense once you understand it.

Supply vs Demand is simply a function of what people are willing to pay with the added emotions of greed and fear. Your profile says you are in the UK...so imagine going to the supermarket and finding apples at £20/kilo. I'm sure you would wait until the price was reasonable...UNLESS there were a shortage of apples and these where the only ones left...

Those reactions you just felt...first disbelief at the ridiculous price of apples, then fear at the realization that its these or its nothing...then perhaps greed with the knowledge that if you hold your purchase you might sell them later for even more...THIS is what drives "price action". Once you understand yourself, and how you would react, you will also understand how markets tend to react...and apply that base to your own view of the market.

Concentrate of "seeing" the order flow behind each of the candles...behind each group of candles...and remember the order flow has only two states...balance and unbalance. Soon, you won't be able to see anything else.
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  • #171
  • Jan 4, 2017 8:40pm Jan 4, 2017 8:40pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} The short answer is, "no" because I don't know who "Sam" is. However my particular method for trading is quite common and boring. I utilize my view of order flow to try and point point area where I expect that order flow to change from balanced to imbalanced. What usually follows is a rush of orders flooding the market as losers are stopped out. Of course I have (as everyone does) put my own small twists on the idea and have tested it ad nauseum. The start of this thread was my attempt to bring this idea (methodology) out to larger time...
I day trade the futures trading pullbacks to those s and d areas I would recommend the emini nasdac it trends like not other market just don't trade Wednesday also I use 233 volume bar charts it seems to give you a better entry than tick charts
  • #172
  • Jan 4, 2017 9:22pm Jan 4, 2017 9:22pm
DonPato I really appreciate the time and effort you have put into this thread. It has helped me to start grasping the basics of order flow trading, so thank you for that. I am hungry to learn more, is there any places you could recommend that I could get further training? Aside from following your thread of course

Cheers
  • #173
  • Jan 5, 2017 7:31am Jan 5, 2017 7:31am
Quoting Divergence
I day trade the futures trading pullbacks to those s and d areas I would recommend the emini nasdac it trends like not other market just don't trade Wednesday also I use 233 volume bar charts it seems to give you a better entry than tick charts
Hello Divergence...I have not traded the emini NASDAQ but have watched it. It is a lower volume market than the emini DOW and thus the buy-in is a little higher. I have been trading the DOW for a long time now and have become used to how it moves.

My trading time frames are a little different than yours and bit larger. I trigger on 1,500 share volume charts with an anchor of 5,000. I also look at the 20,000 share chart as well. I have tried various smaller charts including as low as 150 ticks, but I've found them a bit too noisy and they generated too many false signals. I'm sure this is because of the higher volume present on this market.

As far as trending vs ranging...I have learned to use both to my advantage. Obviously trending markets produce more in a single trade but I have learned to switch gears when presented with a larger ranging market, which BTW, is really just a balanced market on a larger time frame.
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  • #174
  • Jan 5, 2017 7:36am Jan 5, 2017 7:36am
Quoting Dji127
DonPato I really appreciate the time and effort you have put into this thread. It has helped me to start grasping the basics of order flow trading, so thank you for that. I am hungry to learn more, is there any places you could recommend that I could get further training? Aside from following your thread of course Cheers
Hello DJI27...thank you for your kind words. I am happy to help out if I can, you just need to ask. There is a thread here that was started by one of my mentors, gspajon. It explains the concept very well: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=553445

As well gspajon does offer classes to people here on FF, but he was "banished" to the commercial area after someone complained and hasn't continued posting. He does still trade and teaches those who are willing to learn...don't know if you want to go that route. As well you can IM him here on the thread...I think he still checks

In addition there is an excellent book by Jason Alan Jankowsky, called "Time Compression Trading", that also discusses the subject of order flow and time.

Hope this helps some.
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  • #175
  • Jan 5, 2017 7:48am Jan 5, 2017 7:48am
Update on WTI - Long:
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A rush of selling pushed price down to challenge my stop (and my discipline) but came just shy of stopping me out... Buyers have stepped in again and are now challenging that last area where sellers established dominance. I have left the stop where it is for now but may tighten it later today depending on what I see intraday.

The 2-day chart is starting to show signs of balance coming into the market. the buyers are not as strong as they were a week or two ago. Over the past 7 trading days now, the order flow is showing strengthening selling at the highs, as evidenced by the long shadows.
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  • #176
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:02am Jan 5, 2017 10:02am
Update on AUD/USD - long:
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Price is approaching my first take profit level where I intend to take the majority of profit off the table. However, we have now entered an area where I anticipate some strong selling to start taking place. I have not yet moved my stop closer to the market as I was hoping to see a more definitive structure area (higher low) to place my stop under. So I will have to wait.
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  • #177
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:05am Jan 5, 2017 10:05am
Update on WTI - Long:
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As suspected this AM, intraday selling has returned at the high of the day and has pushed price back into selling dominant area. Buyers will have to make a concerted effort to push higher and absent any news from OPEC I am pessimistic about new buyers coming at these levels. Stop tightened to lock 713 pips.
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  • #178
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:19am Jan 5, 2017 10:19am
Worthy of note:
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US Dollar Index (USDX). Sellers are currently challenging the last area where buyers proved to be dominant and have pushed into the area a significant amount. Intraday charts seem to be holding and (at least at this point) there doesn't seem to be any interest in buying. If price moves through this area and closes on a weekly basis, it could be the start of some long needed USD weakening.

However if price stops here...and the order flow balances again...in virtually the same area, USD bulls may still be in control. Something to watch and see...

This has particular significance to me as my trades are all USD centric.
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  • #179
  • Jan 5, 2017 5:42pm Jan 5, 2017 5:42pm
Something to keep on your radar:
EUR/USD - looking to short - maybe
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This market has moved into the target area for the second time...the area where I pay attention for any sign of reversal. Price has stalled over the last 7 hrs and balanced...while this is not unusual for the gap time (time between US close and Asia open) it could have significance IF we get a 12 short signal...

Of course price could move higher but we are in an area where we might have a confluence of technical factors as well.

  1. Lower high made just before the new year
  2. Second challenge - which may lead to a double top - this is still in question
  3. Area where I would expect more selling to resume...as that is was it occurred last week.

If price pushes higher I will wait further...but if we get anything that looks like a short signal I will place my orders and look to hold to the bottom seen here...perhaps further if we get a downside surprise.

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  • #180
  • Jan 6, 2017 9:53am Jan 6, 2017 9:53am
Follow up on EUR/USD - Short:
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The first of three positions has been triggered on this market, and it appears I may only get one fill..but the day isn't over yet. I will reassess on Sunday evening when the market opens again, after Asia reacts to today's NFP.
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