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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,221
  • Dec 21, 2016 4:53am Dec 21, 2016 4:53am
wish you all A very
HAPPY MERRY CHRISTMAS
and
HAPPY PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
Success is a Journey Not a Destination....... kind regards ramzam
  • #2,222
  • Edited 3:15am Dec 22, 2016 2:49am | Edited 3:15am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, again a question.... When there is balance you often wait for acceptation at a break level. You then often write: "if not accepted price can go to the opposite side of the balance" But when can we say price is accepted or not accepted...or maybe better when are the odds higher that we see an acceptation or a pull back? Regards, HappyMe
Hi HappyMe,
most comes from experience but also from the current situation in which the balance developed. Let's say you got some weak level tag at a bottom of a balance and you are watching a breakout attempt above it: in this case you should be pretty ready to go against this attempt because the current move will probably not be supported by strong hands (considering the weaknesses left below).
Plus you have to consider the "tempo". Tempo is a word often used by JD and it "means", like in music, the way in which an action is occurring in one particular direction: is this action slow, fast, grinding?
Now too fast could be emotion: so probably not a so good action. To slow or too grinding could mean lack of participation and even in this case the success is rare in such cases. The problem is to correctly evaluate the concepts of "too slow" "too fast" etc.: and this could only come from your experience.
Now technically there are the following parameters to consider the success or failure of a breack out:

  1. how many time price went up and down the breakeven: the more the up and down, the less the breakeven could succeed.
  2. how many bars closed above the breakeven: two bars mean generally "acceptation above a particular level, so, also in this case 2 m30 periods closed above a breakeven could mean acceptation of the breakout in one particular direction.
  3. you want to see acceleration after a break, you do not want too see a "stall" after it.
  4. You want to see volume in the breakout bar: and btw this is very difficult to evaluate in the forex.

There are then a huge amount of things to evaluate during a balance breakout: is the current balance overlapping a previous balance? What time is it? Which bar will perform the possible breakout? It is the last bar of GB?, the last of Tokyo? Have we good targets in the direction of the possible breakout? How far they are? Etc. Etc. etc.

Consider that in a market you only can have two conditions: trend and balance. So it is pretty clear that the "balance" environment is one of the 2 most complex and important issue we could speak about in any market.

Also let me add this: when we speak about succees or failure we are always speaking about a relative event. If you have a balance of 10 pips and the possible breakout could lead to a move of 30 pips, considering that the structural place for your stops is somewhere inside the balance (something like 5 to 10 pips below your breakeven), we could speak of a success if the break occurrs and the target is reached or almost reached: because you are going to risk max ten pips to have 3 times this amount.
But if you have, let's say a balance of 30 pips and the possible targets are somewhere above it at a distance of 30 pips, even if the balance is a success, meaning price breaks above it and reach the target, considering the location of your structural stops (somewhere inside the balance: max 30 pips) the position you are taking is a 1 to 1: not a good deal in my opinion.

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  • #2,223
  • Dec 22, 2016 3:05am Dec 22, 2016 3:05am
Quoting ramzam
wish you all A very HAPPY MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
Well, thank you very much indeed and I can only reply in the same way:

I wish you all too, a very happy festivity and specially a very favorable and rich new year. Best L.
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  • #2,224
  • Dec 22, 2016 3:12am Dec 22, 2016 3:12am
Quoting Lock
16/12/21 WEDNESDAY 07:51+1GMT (edited untill 08:12) EARLY MORNING REPORT I think yesterday we entered the first "holiday" day of a long theory that will end with the first days of the new year: meaning lack of participation of any timeframe bigger than daily. The great number of exact references (as poor lows and poor highs, exact levels tagged and so on) is a clear demonstartion of such condition. .
Quoting Lock
So I suggest anyone here to do what I'm currently doing: play on a demo or on a fake account in order to do your tests and to follow the market but do not be seriously involved in a situation so weak and unsecure unless you are very confident into it. ....
Nothing changed from yesterday and I repeat here my suggestion: use these days to study, observe the market and make a recap of all what you learned in tha last months. We will not have strong participants in the next days and even if you will have huge moves it will be very difficult to profit from them because the environment is very risky and difficult to evaluate... Obviously it is only a suggestion and anyone is perfectly free to do whatever he want to: specially if he or she managed to have a good idea of what is going on in this market.

Btw we have currently a 2 days balance: today is currently inside yesterday that is inside the day before. Also current GB is inside yesterday GB range as yesterday GB range is inside the day before GB session: so a breakout is very possible.
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  • #2,225
  • Dec 23, 2016 4:49am Dec 23, 2016 4:49am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} .... Btw we have currently a 2 days balance: today is currently inside yesterday that is inside the day before. Also current GB is inside yesterday GB range as yesterday GB range is inside the day before GB session: so a breakout is very possible.
As you see yesterday a breakout occured downside with the pit session. Today GB opened with a gap and didn't manage to fill it and consequently the breakout continued with current GB session. I'm not in as written yesterday but I'm happy to see that a good analysis could provide good results even in such conditions. Best L.
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  • #2,226
  • Edited 5:20am Dec 23, 2016 4:56am | Edited 5:20am
16/12/23 FRIDAY (edited untill 12:20+1GMT)
WEEKLY UPDATE

Quoting Lock
16/12/19 MONDAY 08:27+1GMT (edited untill 08:41) EARLY MORNING REPORT In the last 10 weeks we saw 3 balance overlapping one each other: all together they made a unique big bracket* where the high is slightly below the upper monthly bracket low at 27948 and the low is at 20883....
Quoting Lock
The weekly balance low (we are speaking about the GB low of week 11.20) is at 23115: because price established by Friday GB was below this week's breakeven (25122) the low of this week is a possible natural initial target. Note also that below this level we got the very poor Sydney low at 2296. .....
We have now 8 days of one timeframing lower action: so we are in a short term trend downside. All the targets we have underligned downside have been almost taken out. There is still the bottom of the 10.16 weekly balance (21352) and the 10.25 (20816*) daily bracket low to test. (and eventually the weak "all time" low) But all what we have above current price location is a very weak structure so I think that we could have 2 options here:

  1. a substantial correction when and if the current downtrend will find strong hands at these levels or...
  2. a correction of the inventories somewhere before to reach them.

*the braket low could be correctly considered the 20883 (10.11 low) because it is the low of the first benchmark downside. Technically instead the low is 20816 (10.25 low)

Note that if we consider the attempted December breakout above November as a failure, the first natural target is the opposite side of November balance, meaning November low at 22042.

About the minor scale note that yesterday pit session left a poor low at 22767, just above the old upper pit gap. So, in my opinion this poor low will be taken out by upcoming pit session and this gap will be at least partially filled. If not filled, we will have a double pass gap over that space (22538-2276)

Downside we have an old GB double pass gap at 2193-22276 and, just above it, the pit poor low at 22135 left by 11.01 pit session: all these refs could clearly attract price. The GB double pass gap could attract GB price action while the pit poor low could attract the upcoming pit price action.

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  • #2,227
  • Dec 23, 2016 5:29am Dec 23, 2016 5:29am
Quoting Lock
16/12/23 FRIDAY (edited untill 12:20+1GMT) WEEKLY UPDATE {quote} {quote} ... But all what we have above current price location is a very weak structure so I think that we could have 2 options here: a substantial correction when and if the current downtrend will find strong hands at these levels or... a correction of the inventories somewhere before to reach them....
Remember that if we will have a correction of the inventories (clearly very short right now as written) we have space up to 2400 zone at least.
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  • #2,228
  • Dec 28, 2016 3:50am Dec 28, 2016 3:50am
Attempted breakout below last 3 sessions bracket. C high weak at initial half back 2265 as D high weak at early morning low 2247 (B period low): carry this info forward if something will go wrong downside. Note the double pass GB gap down to 21927 (a possible target in case of continuation downside)
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  • #2,229
  • Jan 2, 2017 3:56am Jan 2, 2017 3:56am
Hi Lock,

All the best for a New Year...... Let 2017 a perfect trade-year!!

Regards,
HappyMe
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,230
  • Jan 3, 2017 2:42am Jan 3, 2017 2:42am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, All the best for a New Year...... Let 2017 a perfect trade-year!! Regards, HappyMe
Hello HappyMe, All the best to you too! And obviously to all the participants of this thread!
Really best, L.
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  • #2,231
  • Edited 3:29am Jan 3, 2017 3:00am | Edited 3:29am
2017/01/03 TUESDAY 10:00 (edited untill...)
NEW YEAR REPORT

Let's start with a top down perspective for this new year.
On the monthly base we are in a balance environment. December 2016 failed above November balance highand as normal, after that, price went down in the direction of to the opposite side of this balance (November low 2204 level): this does not mean we have to reach it, but it means that this is the common/natural target of current price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On weekly we are instead in a clear downtrend with a 4 periods "one timeframing lower".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-01-03_9-54-57_weekly.png Size: 30 KB


On daily timeframe after 3 overlapping balances upwards price eventually broke downside and after a sequence of 8 days of one timeframing lower (mid term downtrend), it came into balance. The balance of 4 days (12/23-12/29) has been tested above by 12/30. We got a failure above balance and consequently the natural direction is now at the opposite side of the balance: 12/28 low, 2200. Now, again: this does not mean it has to go there, but at least it means that the natural direction after a failure above a balance is the opposite side of that balance. Note also that 12/30 left a substantial excess above the 4 days balance, so we could consider current action as a possible short term downtrend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-01-03_10-06-18_daily.png Size: 117 KB


Now, going down from the macro perspective to the intra day situation we saw yesterday a double distribution trend session for GB (note the 2 distributions of the GB profile and the clean space between them). The problem there is that we were during bank holiday so we cannot consider this as important as it could look like. Anyway for now we take it as it is: a failure above the previous day attempt higher (note the 12/30 spike base at 2316: it was a test upside and 01.02 GB session rejected this attempt).
Today GB session opened below yesterday GB session poor low, tested inside yesterday lower distribution, failed and went down to test below overnight low. Note that currently we could have acceptation below overnight low if also C period will close below it. For any meaningfull continuation downside the best will be a clean space below current A low and overnight low. Also note that current GB low is poor and also weak as it is tagging 12.30 Sydney low.

The 2 most important references in this situation are the 2 main composite pocs at 2285 and 2233. Plus the lower double pass GB gap, down to 21927.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-01-03_10-17-15_Sessions.png Size: 214 KB
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  • #2,232
  • Jan 3, 2017 3:36am Jan 3, 2017 3:36am
10:36 +1GMT

Quoting Lock
2017/01/03 TUESDAY 10:00 (edited untill...) ...The 2 most important references in this situation are the 2 main composite pocs at 2285 and 2233. Plus the lower double pass GB gap, down to 21927. {image}
C was inside B: attempted breakout above this balance. ABove we have the Tokyo poor high at 23065 and the yesterday bank holiday session high at 23445. If instead this attempt will be rejected we could come down again to take out the current GB poor low. Note price coming back in the price zone of the upper composite poc 2285. This is very normal in a weak environment as the current one is.
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  • #2,233
  • Jan 3, 2017 5:31am Jan 3, 2017 5:31am
Quoting Lock
10:36 +1GMT {quote} C was inside B: attempted breakout above this balance. ABove we have the Tokyo poor high at 23065 and the yesterday bank holiday session high at 23445. If instead this attempt will be rejected we could come down again to take out the current GB poor low. Note price coming back in the price zone of the upper composite poc 2285. This is very normal in a weak environment as the current one is.
12:31+1GMT
Note that GB spent almost its entire session around this level (the main composite poc at 2285). Note also that upcoming pit session has to solve a lot of weknesses above and below this level. Starting with the yesterday poor high and low. But specially downside where we got two back to back poor lows left downside at 2220 and 2202.
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  • #2,234
  • Jan 3, 2017 5:38am Jan 3, 2017 5:38am
12:38+1GMT
Currently we have a little portion of old gap upside at 22685-2271 (2271 is yesterday pit low). And we also have a double pass gap at 2295-22315 (2295 is yesterday pit high): both these zone could attract price during upcoming pit session so currently the situation is very uncertain.

In the meanwhile note that current GB profile is a perfect "P" shape untill now: meaning that what we saw after the news was probably short covering (old business)
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  • #2,235
  • Jan 3, 2017 9:23am Jan 3, 2017 9:23am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 12:31+1GMT Note that GB spent almost its entire session around this level (the main composite poc at 2285). Note also that upcoming pit session has to solve a lot of weknesses above and below this level. Starting with the yesterday poor high and low. But specially downside where we got two back to back poor lows left downside at 2220 and 2202.

16:23+1GMT
So Pit session opened with a gap downside from yesterday pit low and was not able to fill it. Consequently went down in order to correct the poor lows left by previous sessions at 2220 and 2202. I don't know if it could be able to reach also the second one after the taken out of the first one at 2220, but this is clearly the initial direction of this auction. Note the great number of single pips of current B period: prbably too much and consequently carry this info forward.
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  • #2,236
  • Jan 3, 2017 9:26am Jan 3, 2017 9:26am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 16:23+1GMT So Pit session opened with a gap downside from yesterday pit low and was not able to fill it. Consequently went down in order to correct the poor lows left by previous sessions at 2220 and 2202. I don't know if it could be able to reach also the second one after the taken out of the first one at 2220, but this is clearly the initial direction of this auction. Note the great number of single pips of current B period: prbably too much and consequently carry this info forward.
Taken out too. Note that in case of continuation downside we also have an other poor low at 21365. But now the B period is very very elongated. Also remember that 2202 was also the lowest pit low for December 2016.
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  • #2,237
  • Jan 3, 2017 9:52am Jan 3, 2017 9:52am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Taken out too. Note that in case of continuation downside we also have an other poor low at 21365. But now the B period is very very elongated. Also remember that 2202 was also the lowest pit low for December 2016.
50% correction of B period single pips.

Quoting Lock
2017/01/03 TUESDAY 10:00 (edited untill...) NEW YEAR REPORT .... The 2 most important references in this situation are the 2 main composite pocs at 2285 and 2233. Plus the lower double pass GB gap, down to 21927. {image}
Note also that price went back around the lower main composite poc at 2233 that as written this morning is one of our most important references.
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  • #2,238
  • Jan 3, 2017 10:01am Jan 3, 2017 10:01am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Taken out too. Note that in case of continuation downside we also have an other poor low at 21365. But now the B period is very very elongated. Also remember that 2202 was also the lowest pit low for December 2016.
Almost 100% retracement of B period... Now watch out because we are above the lower main composite poc. If ther will be no continuation upside: back to the lower composite poc at 2233.

While if continuation we have space to correct both the upper double pass gaps. and all the poor highs left by previous weak sessions.
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  • #2,239
  • Jan 3, 2017 10:19am Jan 3, 2017 10:19am
17:19+1GMT
We are going to enter the last period for London. Lowest close of Dec GB is at 22205. Yesterday GB close is instead at 22935. Lowest low for Dec GB is at 2207.
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  • #2,240
  • Jan 3, 2017 10:45am Jan 3, 2017 10:45am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Almost 100% retracement of B period... Now watch out because we are above the lower main composite poc. If ther will be no continuation upside: back to the lower composite poc at 2233. While if continuation we have space to correct both the upper double pass gaps. and all the poor highs left by previous weak sessions.
17:45+1GMT
First double pass pit gap removed: price tagged exactly yesterday pit session unchanged at 2273. If we will have acceptation inside yesterday very little range we could aim at its poor high 2295. If rejected back to the lower composite poc.
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