The Really Useless Thread

Europe going home with both Euro and Sterling on the edge. As expected Euro sliding on air for a 3er attempt to crack 1.037x , only very soft hands holding at these levels....

sisse

...and I will take that, clearing main target in NG with the test 3.79X. For those in the NG play, nothing else but a superb ride to close the year. +19% non stop and counting in only a week .... Trailing time with only the extension left open. Well done all that rode it ...

On the rest of the board, even single major market on shooting distance now to complete main target for year's end ....

sis

..and that was pretty much it for the year.

Only commodities leaving some crumbs left for the year. We have set highs and lows of the year/Q/M/W across the board.... time to start the 'traditional' wrap up before/after of the year and the whats coming for 2017 in terms of expectations.

Let's start wrapping up all reaming pending (only one or two left) conversation in the thread ...

sisse

This one is open from a couple of weeks about the flip. @Earleone @ PAStalker

While we wrap up the year and before I post a chart to close this topic. One final 'question':

--> Where do you think the Euro will close for the year? ...make a guess?

sisse

The second conversation is a bit longer and it was written in pieces during the last 2 months. ... sisse never leave a conversation open and even if some seem to have abandon the thread on frustration or maybe just a healthy break from the boards (i hope is the latter @Pharm0r) here we go: ...

tbc. ...

sisse

Possibly 1.044x..not sure how US data will affect it 2morro

At the flip area:1.044.
Why: Buyers an sellers are waiting for big hands to embark.

>1.048x, possibly 0520 is my guess. As long as we are guessing. Not sure if that one was meant for Earleone and PAStalker only though.

1.050xxxx

Just a quick chart update for something to think about it with the 2 'choose your poison time' in the mid term since we changed to outlook sell.

The point of this wrap up is not to name and shame but for all those who feel related to any of the conversations in these areas (you can track backposts for more details and exact to the 'minute' conversations on those areas):



+++VERY Long wrap up post ALERT +++ so Feel free to ignore or pass if it doesn't relate to any of your previous trades/questions/pm/ ....

--> ' In all honesty, from what i read from your posts, you seem to be still trying to find the missing link in your trading approach.You know you got something powerful but you are not 100℅ confident on why sometimes it gets blur or fail in live trading...and start looking for answers.... '

--> Problem is FA is a new field for you, you are afraid, not in control of your trading system anymore. When you were are newbie you prolly completely ignored it, after you prolly got blown by a couple of reports and started thinking is hocus pocus and random, then you got better in TA and you dismissed FA as completely irrelevant for trading...but you still struggled to be consistent so ...

--> You dig even deeper in TA but knew your shit inside out after prolly thousand of hours reading, researching and testing.... It was pointless to look for a new approach, you now what you got is solid and there is little in TA that can answer your concerns.... so you finally jumped in FA as you start realizing expectations and real economic and macro factors affect and define macro direction...

--> Thats why you prolly started posting in the RUTs, good intentions to learn FA at first but I can read your pain, distrust and frustration with FA. You want to crack it but your inner demons and trading myths keep telling you to ignore and trade your charts alone...you ignore them for a while but you still have this feeling that your system is not complete yet....You keep coming back. You are determined trader you ask for help to understand FA, books, sources, news services, anything really thinking that one will give the secret answer, the missing link....the Holy Grail...

--> ... another opp comes to see a major flow....when you seem to start cracking it, some chop blur your analysis. A spike on low volatility moves markets towards your TA initial idea and makes you hate not just trading your TA alone...You hate markets and frustration take over. However, out of the blue, the flow changes, one more time you chose the path of most resistance ignoring all the FA learnings....and one more time out the blue the day after you decide to ignore FA, markets blow in the FA direction in a 700 ticks rally/selloff non stop...

--> You are not a newbie anymore, you are a seasoned TA analyst of your own trading system so you don't lose money, neither manage to potentially grab the crumbs if you have followed just your TA, neither manage to ride the proper leg...

--> Your account is prolly treading water at best or more than probably bleeding from thousand wounds....The move finishes, you look back after the fact...this time using the range that actually played out. ALL your squiggly lines/indicators would have been right, you system would have captured most, you trigger would have been perfect...but why why why why you didn't ...

--> Another miss or flop in a trade. Your TA keeps showing good things but you barely benefit from it because something is missing....why this range worked flawlessly and why this didn't?... so you decide to just trade your TA for crumbs in scare mode. Taking quick in and outs to avoid getting caught in the wrong side ....you decide fck FA, I can make a living with these quick trades ... like usual markets consolidates and for a few day you are the king of the world,.... even the lamest trade allow you to close early even on the wrong side ...

--> ...and one more time you decide to sit in the path of most resistance and the FA move come, the real one ....one more time you peak at FA, or the RUT's, maybe sisse will say something ...you are lurking in the backgournd ...you see the choppy and noisy rnge before the 'bang' you are happy you don't trade FA bacasue your TA is working .......until 'boom comes the dynamite' a fresh move another 600 ticks gone, you get stopped out. 50 tiny winners during the chop in the in and out wiped in one trade ... and one more time you didn't ride it ......and one more time after the fact with the actual range ....you realize your system would have been flawless ...etc, etc etc

--> ....but why why why I didn't ...I better start chart fitting in some obscure pair or instrument until TA alone is 100% clear and get as far as possible from FA ....and the cycle repeats after a flop .......and one more time start exploring FA but I can read your pain, distrust and frustration with FA.

--> You are counting the day TA alone blow sisse outlook out of the wind to proof FA is just shit .... or maybe you start thinking these FA guys must be using a special tool a hidden platform, do I need a bloomberg terminal? how do they analyze that? where is the information? I want answers....

--> By this point either you are bored to dead about the story. If you are not and feel it relates to you in one way or the other and for those fellow traders that asked in previous conversation and by PM:

 

1. Start slowly
2. Understand the basic FA in the most common markets.
3. Avoid reading mass media and non specialise press for FA analysis.
4. Avoid reading bucket shops / broker noise and system sellers micro flows news and comments as they are promoting overtrading and are far from reality.
5. Look at the big picture first
6. Map direction after
7. Only then start introducing your TA
8. If things sound complex. Read more. Ask. Chat. Have an opinion.
9. If you can't react live in the analysis. Sit, digest, think and it will start coming naturally.
10. GL

This will pretty much wrap these conversations. No specific names but for all those who have been one point or the other in this conversation during this year. I hope it helps.

sisse

I see , recognise , accept the truths, digest and in one form or another the words / scenarios you listed . Help .......is an understatement !

I have many times before and shall again ..... I thank you .

I shall try implement , recognise and act accordingly from the knowledge you share.,

Regards and Happy new Year

haha, this is exact!!! Ive been almost 3 years around, 2 years lost/learning in the process described - this year (with tramendous FA and TA help from this thread!!) things finally turned around but the process was huge financial and mental pain. However, an exciting intelectual advanture worth taking which pays back one day

= not boosting, just trying to encourage everyone who has the determination to go this path

P.S.: thanks everyone and mostly sisse. cant wait for the yearly wrap up and predictions

Sisse,
You summed up my trading experience to the T. I've been lurking for months, silently participating in your exercises, getting big wins and then losing in the chop. Thank you for your commitment to us with no financial gain to you. One question - what sources should we be reading for proper FA analysis?

And the whole time I thought I was hiding all that out of view behind an anonymous Internet profile.
Thanks for wake up call #1,000,001 sisse.
Not giving up.

I think we will close the year inside the last week intraday range 1.035x - 1.047x And I think highest probability in the lower end of the range so for more exact value I will guess 1.039X

sisse,

You read my mind and exposed all my thoughts. I feel "naked and afraid"(isn't that a tv series)?

Everything you posted is in my in head when it comes to trading. I want simplicity but I can't get it.

This year is the first year I am truely in profit. I wish I could understand legs more. I don't. I know they exist and are in short, mid and long term. If I can master the flows of the legs with flips; then, my trading will be st least 60 % Better.

I believe the yr will end at .044x. I have been trading the range at .0375 and .047x.

...I'm definitely one of those lurkers in the back, but glad I am, have learn a lot from this thread and for that I wish you a Happy New and prosperous 2017 to all here....thanks sisse for all the sharing, may the creator give you 7 times that knowledge back.....or a thousand times...why not...thanks for all....

Why? ... Look 2 quick tips:

1. We are talking about the YEARLY close which also mean Q/M/W/D close? even if you trade micro ranges, you may want to zoom out a lot for this ....'forest for trees'....
2. What US data? ...what makes you think a soft US number in the middle of nowhere a few hours before the Holidays will be a game changer? ...let assume its is for the sake of the argument. Do you think the 7 years massive improvement [downtrend] in unemployment claims in the best month of the year for employment (Nov/DEC) is going to change anything FA wise because a micro overshoot in value?.... Point is you seem to be talking/understanding FA = Reports and thats a NO NO NO NO.....translate it for trading in binary events which is a TRIPLE NO NO NO NO NO

You may want to put both your TA and FA in the proper scope, otherwise you are comparing apples with oranges and using a hammer to tighten a screw ....

sisse

...yeap 1.049x is the one to track for the M/W close and 1.046x for the Q/Y close....the former is more important for trading the next leg, the latter it will just give us some strong TA hints on what could come late Q3/Q4 2017 ....

sisse

Hello Sisse
thanks for your valuable contributions in this thread. I am reading some of the old posts, trying to improve my FA knowledge and I have a question about the quote above.
What exactly means "pulling money from equities to cash"?
If I sell my S&P equities, I will receive dollars for them, but this does not involve currency conversion, so the E/U exchange rate should not be affected?
If I am European resident and I decide to return the money from the sold equities home, I will be selling dollars so this should even cause the opposite effect- E/U to rise? (Like we see often happens with USDJPY - it rises when S&P rises and falls when S&P is being sold)

Could you please elaborate on this? Why equities being sold should strengthen the dollar even further?
Thanks

Here we go for NY ...not expecting much for today...

sisse

1. Simply because of Supply and Demand:

For example, We have a product 'ABC' (service, asset, anything really) and lots of new people decide to start buying it (for whatever reason).

-> The DEMAND of 'ABC' increases.
-> If the SUPPLY of 'ABC' hasn't changed,
-> Therefore the price of 'ABC' will increase.

Simple economics there as you and most prolly know by default:

-> Original demand for ABC = 10 units
-> Original supply for ABC = 10 units
-> Original Price = lets say $50 per unit

Now with the change of demand:

-> New demand for ABC = 20 units
-> Same supply for ABC = 10 units
-> New Price = lets say $100 per unit Why?

Because there is a limited supply (10) and now the demand is higher (20) so some buyers wont be able to buy all they want. Suppliers can keep rising the price as long as the demand is willing to pay until ...it runs out of units to sell at the max price and/or another supplier increase production and correct to a new market equilibrium, etc etc.

I know its a trivial and prolly simple example but EXACTLY the same principle happens with money. Bastardising monetary policy, a demand increase in more cash (M1/M2 etc) will make the price of the asset increase (supply and demand) until it matches the new equilibrium or until supply (i.e the FED) increase/decrease 'supply'.... In simple words, Dollar (nothing to do with a pair) will increase if the demand for cash increases...a even simpler case will be a simple risk on/off event....

I hope it helps...

sisse

When zooming way out to a (untradeably large) multi-year chart, 1.046 can be viewed almost like a flip level. I guess only in the sense that it was the point at which it made sense to start mapping TA in the other direction. Since the angle is so wide, a break of 80 or 100 ticks below or a support 80 or 100 ticks above is still too fine pointed to consider with much weight (no real break/no real shake). But this is TA only and while closing the Year above 1.046 should perhaps be seen like an indication that more selling pressure will be required to get south of it, FA, without a pretty significant change in outlook, suggests that pressure will come. And one like me who closed shorts at these levels, might get a chance to follow it through from higher at some point in Q1 if buyers jump in soon on confidence created by a close above 1.046. I'll be watching for that.