The Really Useless Thread

There it goes taking 3520 with clean intraday swipe. Taking of 30% of long, leaving the rest afloat.
Gold still tracking some intraday levels on bear side.

...very dull sessions across the board.

NY still to come but Europe already packing bags for the long holiday weekend so bids and offers will get very thin after the opening range.

Euro chopping around 1.044x all week long. Only Sterling sneaking to the lows with expectation of 'hard' Brexit reaching nearly boiling point. Expecting 'tweets' from the talking heads any 'minute' in the upcoming days to officially unlock chapter 2 for Q1 2017....

sisse

@Pastalker @Earlone and others following... I hope is not doubts now about 1.044x....

A dull day and week ....happy holidays all...

sisse

Sisse,

Do you look for a Weekly close above or below to confirm it's short term or mid direction? Its definitely a Flip area.

Outlook short and mid and long is Sell.

Due to time of day and holidays I was looking to close my .0494 position as I can see this going into the .05xx handle and possibly .0630 which would be a great place to reload.

Wish you and all here a happy holiday too !!!!

I am not tracking anything in the Euro. Read post last week. 1.037x still holding (as expected '... there will be not short term plays this year etc tc....'.

The 1.044x is for the conversation about intraday range Pastalker asked...

I am not interested at all in those leveles amf micro ranges. The discussion is just to show him that the technicalities of the'flip' concept is the same despite the TF.

You have been long following the flow. There is absolutely zero in play mid or short term here....so same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

Quoting CommercialB
{quote} If it's that recent exercise with Hoom and yourself you're referring to I don't think that was a serious outlook change on sisse's part but was just meant as an example. Mid term outlook was changed from Neutral to Sell on 19.12.16 and that's still the current one to my knowledge


...so getting back to that Cad, Cad*, Usd/Cad mid-term outlook saga ...

I've had a chance to go over some back posts and my understanding is still that sisse means the Usd/Cad pair in his outlook updates and not just Cad as a separate currency, and here is my reasoning on the matter (also helps exercise what's left of my grey cells ha ha )

On Dec 14th sisse changed (amongst other things) his Mid-Term outlook in Oil from Neutral to Soft Buy, and also Mid-Term outlook in Cad from Buy to Neutral

"Second important update form the FED:
--> Changing mid term Outlook in Oil from Neutral to Soft Buy

Third outlook from the FED on the FX board.
--> Changing short and mid term outlook in CAD from buy to Neutral"

My reasoning as to why I believe he intends Cad to mean the Usd/Cad pair is as follows,

1. If he'd meant just Cad on it's own then he would have used Cad* and it would be unwise to just assume he made an error without first getting clarification.

2. If we assume the simple Cad*/Oil direct correlation, then this also ties in nicely with his other mid-term outlook change for oil from neutral to soft buy which would constitute a more positive/bullish outlook change for both oil and Cad*, and therefore Usd/Cad negative/bearish. If he was changing Cad* from buy to neutral (more bearish) this would conflict with his changing oil from to neutral to soft buy (more bullish).

3. On Dec 19th he changed his Mid-Term outlook in Cad back from Neutral to Sell

"Second important update today:
--> Changing back mid term outlook in CAD back from neutral to SELL."

Again he specifically didn't use his own nomenclature of Cad* to denote just the Cad currency on it's own and so again I must assume it's the Usd/Cad pair that's intended, ie a negative/bearish outlook change for the Usd/Cad pair and a positive/bullish one for the separate currency Cad*.

But furthermore this more bearish outlook change for the Pair also ties in with his following remark made immediately after that above update ..

"CAD losing the 1.34xx handle for the year will set a very hard long term top and lock levels all the way down to the 1.41xx handle for 2017."

So logically as I understand it I must stick with this interpretation till someone explains me otherwise

Also throughout the recent exercise with Earleone & hoom he often referred to the Usd/Cad pair as Cad

"Quoting sisse
+++CAD MATRIX ++++
Ok so. We have in a very basic framework the main CAD elements.
CAD = CAD /USD."

And @ Earleone, that's all it was, just a theoretical exercise and NOT a real outlook change from sisse ...

" USD/CAD @hoom & @ Earleone outlook for the RUT."

Also, hoom explained it quite well here ... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post9363767

...and if that's not enough, here's sisse himself agreeing with him here ...http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post9363791

Quoting sisse

Disliked

{quote} Got it ... {quote} Mid term mate ... @hoom [& Fisher755 not sure if you also meant this] got it spot on. " He means CAD [USDCAD / loonie ] losing 1.34xx for the year close is a confirmation for a bearish long term outlook and levels all the way UP [not down as he wrote] to 1.41xx handle should be locked for next year ." sisse

Ignored

Ha ha ...I rest my case!

No worries either way, have a great holiday everyone!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Team-and especially to Coach sisse!

"This is a Europe no one wanted."

http://theweek.com/articles/669030/a...troying-europe

Added some turkish lira shorts 5140. EA cross unlocking some higher targets of 4650/80.

Love sedaris!!! Good one and thanks

.

Added long on London open, closed last weeks longs in some profits. Nothing has changed pop is still in play. DE30 not in pop play but longs are still the way to go. Watching GU for some micro shorts to carry on.

No surprise there, added some more on London open with avarage entry 5170ish. Turkish lira is setting for pop play very soon.


Asimetric warfare now in Turkey entering second phase, no more denial in proxy participants, Erdogan now fully pointing for US to collaborate with ISIS potentially exposing his own connection and perhaps aswell US, but more importantly placing a coffin for Turkish economy as the retaliation for that will be most likely delivered.
In most cases the second phase leads to internal collapse and in some cases even to symetrical response. Overall no change in Turkey and Azerbaijan since 2014, all set for crash and clearout until the large macro has what it wants in that regional area.

Back for last few sessions of the year. All markets treading water last week as expected for the Holiday season. Expecting markets to slowly resume the soft continuation legs until next year.

For the rest of the week, we have Euro, Yen, OIL, NG (and most commodities)and US Equities to set the highs and lows of the month (and in some cases like the Euro even the yearly lows) all in soft and thin markets.

We barely have moved an inch in key markets since last week so not much to do but same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

Interesting morning...markets on the move for NY. DJ 20000 is a done deal as early as the opening range. On the currency front, US numbers keep sweeping with Dollar in full control.

More importantly, Sterling* drowning on the brexit noise and triggering one more time early major imminent break down alerts for the mid and long term. GU losing the 1.22xx handle unlock air in a sharp exhaustion leg 1.173x ...below that is all lock FA and TAwise for now but a clean sweep 1.22xx for the Y close unlock 'unbelievable' levels to the down side ....

Also Euro, flirting to sneak down in low liquidity to complete the mid term leg... early morning session close in Europe. All eyes in the US that keep holding the upper hand to trigger the next moves across the board ....

sisse

UK100 shorts, the level (7104) is ok IMO should we fade or wait for a turn, what do you think?