Expectancy Management | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What is Expectancy? 13 replies

System Expectancy - Monte Carlo Simulation 5 replies

Expectancy question for experienced traders 2 replies

Random Market vs Set Expectancy 8 replies

Expectancy is always zero 41 replies

Attachments: Expectancy Management
Exit Attachments

Expectancy Management

  • #101
  • Dec 26, 2016 8:57am Dec 26, 2016 8:57am
Quoting PipMeUp
Hello everybody! Lately I searched FF for "risk management". It returned 99 pages of results. I read one by one the 250 first posts. 248 of them were instead about money management. I found only two of them were really about risk management. One is made of a single post of never answered questions. The second is one page long and the last post is about position sizing; understand money managment. Either risk management is so trivial it goes without saying or it's the most overlooked element of trading in FF. I'm sure that risk management is much...
This conclusion is wrong.
It asumes that in all 3 cases "p" is the same value. But it is not, because with taking partial profits and trailling stop ( second and third case) you increse "p" (win rate)value.
Math and trading are two different things.

EDIT:
I noticed this in 3 seconds, so it looks like a fancy math, but the writer of this PDF is very poor mathematician.

EDIT2:
Terrible- so much trouble with such a "rookie" mistake in the formula.
PVSRA
  • #102
  • Dec 27, 2016 4:56am Dec 27, 2016 4:56am
Thank you for criticizing after 3 seconds a document you obviously don't undestand. I'm not a native English speaker. Perhaps I couldn't write in a way to convey the ideas correctly. There is no such assumption about the probability being "the same value". No assumption that it is known or constant. No assumption about its distribution. I'm a computer scientist not a mathematician. Despite the proof reading there might be some errors. Please show me the "rookie" mistake in the formula and I'll correct the file.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #103
  • Dec 27, 2016 8:04am Dec 27, 2016 8:04am
Quoting Fisher755
This conclusion is wrong. It asumes that in all 3 cases "p" is the same value. But it is not, because with taking partial profits and trailling stop ( second and third case) you increse "p" (win rate)value. Math and trading are two different things.
Could you explain with more of a structured hypothesis rather than simple ranting/trolling conjecture:
1. Why the conclusions are "all wrong."
2. How p-values are altered with taking partial profits.
3. Why you are saying math and trading are orthogonal pursuits.

Try and be constructive and add value. Explain why you think things are right or wrong.
  • #104
  • Edited 11:27am Dec 27, 2016 8:59am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting 9047
{quote} Could you explain with more of a structured hypothesis rather than simple ranting/trolling conjecture: 1. Why the conclusions are "all wrong." 2. How p-values are altered with taking partial profits. 3. Why you are saying math and trading are orthogonal pursuits. Try and be constructive and add value. Explain why you think things are right or wrong.
I explained with the charts in my last few posts yesterday in the similar topics.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_712 Dec. 27 18.25.jpg Size: 86 KB
PVSRA
  • #105
  • Last Post: Dec 27, 2016 9:33am Dec 27, 2016 9:33am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I explained with the charts in my last few posts yesterday in the similar topics.
Sorry can't see those charts here. Why don't you post them?
0 traders viewing now