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  • #441
  • Dec 22, 2016 11:55am Dec 22, 2016 11:55am
I hope this clears it up... Sorry if I confused you. I'm open for questions and clarifications If you spend enough time looking at charts, your eye will get used to which swings are noise and which ones are the real deal, don't worry. It comes with practice
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  • #442
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:05pm Dec 22, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting WDays
I hope this clears it up... Sorry if I confused you. I'm open for questions and clarifications If you spend enough time looking at charts, your eye will get used to which swings are noise and which ones are the real deal, don't worry. It comes with practice {image}
Is this noises happen in all time frame? Or just in lower time frame? Would you please be kind showing more examples?
  • #443
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:05pm Dec 22, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting WDays
{quote} This is H1 market structure we're talking about here As I've said, I watch daily MS for overall trend, but I keep an eye on hourly market structure in order to quickly spot shifts in trend. Also, the short trade was based on the premise that when a swing gets taken out, price will usually go the other way. This current situation looks more like a raid on stops, but I've been keeping an eye on the swing at 1.0477 as it is an important one. I believe we're headed for a retracement into 1.0400 maybe? And then we should be seeing some...
I see your reasoning, and its spot on. Why do you think the retrace should be further into the 1.0400 before more bullishness? its because the stop raid and 1.50RN liquidity grab?
thinking outside the box
  • #444
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:11pm Dec 22, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} I see your reasoning, and its spot on. Why do you think the retrace should be further into the 1.0400 before more bullishness? its because the stop raid and 1.50RN liquidity grab?
I'm still going by the logic that the swing at 1.0477 was taken, and price needs to retrace. When it does so, I usually pull my fib and look for the 50%, 61.8% until the 78.6%. Inside that area, we have a lot of horizontal levels. We have an hourly demand at 1.0380 which is also an institutional level; we have the 1.04 RN + confluence of the fibonacci midpoint (70.5) level. I guess I won't place a limit there, but I will wait and see the reaction there. That way, if I'm wrong and it plummets, I won't lose money.
  • #445
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:12pm Dec 22, 2016 12:12pm
It's a ballsy call, because everyones sentiment is still bearish and looking for parity. I stand by my belief, that we might not see parity any time soon.
  • #446
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:20pm Dec 22, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting WDays
{quote} I'm still going by the logic that the swing at 1.0477 was taken, and price needs to retrace. When it does so, I usually pull my fib and look for the 50%, 61.8% until the 78.6%. Inside that area, we have a lot of horizontal levels. We have an hourly demand at 1.0380 which is also an institutional level; we have the 1.04 RN + confluence of the fibonacci midpoint (70.5) level. I guess I won't place a limit there, but I will wait and see the reaction there. That way, if I'm wrong and it plummets, I won't lose money.
I see, but i don't understand why you discarded the retrace to 1.0430 swing low as a possible long setup.
thinking outside the box
  • #447
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:24pm Dec 22, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} I see, but i don't understand why you discarded the retrace to 1.0430 swing low as a possible long setup.
Because I am looking for a deeper retracement, simply. Remember what we talked about market structure shifts and retracements. There is nothing fueling a euro rally, except for speculative trading. Ergo, it can't settle for a retracement as shallow as 1.0430. It will need to go lower, in order to go higher!

The 1.05 RN is proving to be a hard nut to crack, too.
  • #448
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:36pm Dec 22, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting WDays
{quote} Because I am looking for a deeper retracement, simply. Remember what we talked about market structure shifts and retracements. There is nothing fueling a euro rally, except for speculative trading. Ergo, it can't settle for a retracement as shallow as 1.0430. It will need to go lower, in order to go higher! The 1.05 RN is proving to be a hard nut to crack, too.
Ok makes perfect sense, Im also not expecting 1.50 to be breached without further retracement as well, however we could expect some reaction around 1,0430 perhaps a shallow one but decent to grab something around 20pips. Is this reasoning flawed?
thinking outside the box
  • #449
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:38pm Dec 22, 2016 12:38pm
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} Ok makes perfect sense, Im also not expecting 1.50 to be breached without further retracement as well, however we could expect some reaction around 1,0430 perhaps a shallow one but decent to grab something around 20pips. Is this reasoning flawed?
Of course it's not flawed! It just depends on perspective The problem is, that move already happened and any support 1.0430 offered in the past may be absorbed now.
  • #450
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:43pm Dec 22, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting WDays
{quote} Of course it's not flawed! It just depends on perspective The problem is, that move already happened and any support 1.0430 offered in the past may be absorbed now.
Thanx for the answer mate, just one more thing, you mentioned keeping a eye on the d1 bias, but you're ok in taking positions against it, if you are in sync how this affect the way you manage the position?
thinking outside the box
  • #451
  • Dec 22, 2016 12:55pm Dec 22, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} Thanx for the answer mate, just one more thing, you mentioned keeping a eye on the d1 bias, but you're ok in taking positions against it, if you are in sync how this affect the way you manage the position?
Well there's a time and place to take counter-trend trades. Even if I'm bullish longterm, I may still sell in the short term. It's all about cherry picking scenarios, like today. As for managing the positions, I use regular risk parameters. If you're not confident, you could cut your risk in half and use a position twice as smaller on your counter-trend trades, until you build enough confidence. Cut risk by more, if you're still worried at 1/2 your lotsize.
  • #452
  • Dec 23, 2016 6:23am Dec 23, 2016 6:23am
EA long hit for +30, I was cautious
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  • #453
  • Dec 23, 2016 7:36am Dec 23, 2016 7:36am
Quoting WDays
EA long hit for +30, I was cautious {image}
Hi mate, here I am again bothering you with questions lol. This time about profit taking, I've noticed you always taking profits constantly at 30pips, is there a reasoning for it?

Bellow is my trade for the day on GU, entered on the H1 supply zone for a result of +43pips. I've followed your advice and started paying more attention to intraday market structure as they offer lower risk (stops wise).

Best regards and Merry Christmas to all.
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thinking outside the box
  • #454
  • Dec 23, 2016 8:12am Dec 23, 2016 8:12am
GU short +30
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  • #455
  • Dec 23, 2016 8:14am Dec 23, 2016 8:14am
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} Hi mate, here I am again bothering you with questions lol. This time about profit taking, I've noticed you always taking profits constantly at 30pips, is there a reasoning for it? Bellow is my trade for the day on GU, entered on the H1 supply zone for a result of +43pips. I've followed your advice and started paying more attention to intraday market structure as they offer lower risk (stops wise). Best regards and Merry Christmas to all. {image}
Great job! Keep at it, and you'll be raking in tons

I do 30 pips as a standard TP on EU/GU simply because it's roughly 1/3 of the daily ADR and it's an easy to achieve target - ideal for intraday trading. Sometimes I will do setups that take longer and require holding, that's where I don't look for a set number of pips but for price to reach a certain level.
  • #456
  • Dec 23, 2016 8:25am Dec 23, 2016 8:25am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Great job! Keep at it, and you'll be raking in tons I do 30 pips as a standard TP on EU/GU simply because it's roughly 1/3 of the daily ADR and it's an easy to achieve target - ideal for intraday trading. Sometimes I will do setups that take longer and require holding, that's where I don't look for a set number of pips but for price to reach a certain level.
Awesome, you don't place SL bellow above highs or lows right? you use a standard fixed sl?
thinking outside the box
  • #457
  • Dec 23, 2016 9:07am Dec 23, 2016 9:07am
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} Awesome, you don't place SL bellow above highs or lows right? you use a standard fixed sl?
Nah.. well sometimes I will but not as a rule of thumb though. I set a stop as tightly as I can afford and I base my lotsize on my stop size
  • #458
  • Dec 23, 2016 9:16am Dec 23, 2016 9:16am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Nah.. well sometimes I will but not as a rule of thumb though. I set a stop as tightly as I can afford and I base my lotsize on my stop size
Do you follow any guidelines about where to place them?
thinking outside the box
  • #459
  • Dec 23, 2016 10:23am Dec 23, 2016 10:23am
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} Do you follow any guidelines about where to place them?
If I assume my entry is picture perfect I will use a less than 10 pips stop. If I deem it a little too volatile, I will place a larger stop - within the 15 to 20 pips. There are setups like the HOD-LOD London one, where I will use a 10 pip stop or less, when I'm entering on a pullback I will be more cautious and place a larger stop. Either way I will risk no more than 2%.

So for example, if my equity is 10 000$ and I take an aggressive 10 pip stop, lotsize would be 2.00 lots, if I do regular 20 pip stops - then it's 1.00 lot.
  • #460
  • Dec 23, 2016 7:17pm Dec 23, 2016 7:17pm
Quoting WDays
{quote} If I assume my entry is picture perfect I will use a less than 10 pips stop. If I deem it a little too volatile, I will place a larger stop - within the 15 to 20 pips. There are setups like the HOD-LOD London one, where I will use a 10 pip stop or less, when I'm entering on a pullback I will be more cautious and place a larger stop. Either way I will risk no more than 2%. So for example, if my equity is 10 000$ and I take an aggressive 10 pip stop, lotsize would be 2.00 lots, if I do regular 20 pip stops - then it's 1.00 lot.
thanks man
thinking outside the box
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