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  • #261
  • Nov 30, 2016 4:59am Nov 30, 2016 4:59am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Wednesday, November 30th

Wednesday is here and all attention as it was expected is focused on the one of the most important events of this week – OPEC meeting, that will begin today at 11.00 (+2 GMT) in Vienna. The main topic of this meeting remains oil production volume cut. So the market has already started to price in crucial agreement between OPEC members, as even Iranian oil minister has noted that Iran promises to be flexible to reach a deal. The OPEC members are trying to reach a deal for the last 11-months every time promising to agree on oil production issue. So today the market will unlikely accept anything less than oil output cut deal. The result of the OPEC meeting will expectedly provide significant impact on oil prices and eventually on the resource-linked currencies, such as Canadian, Australian and NZ dollars. The press conference, where the final decision will be announced will begin at 17.00 (+2 GMT). However, until then all eyes will remain on developments surrounding the crucial meeting.

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  • #262
  • Dec 1, 2016 5:08am Dec 1, 2016 5:08am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Thursday, December 1st

In the first winter day the market participants continue to digest the first OPEC output cut deal, witnessed since 2008. Yesterday as it was widely expected OPEC members came to agreement to cut oil production level by 1.2 mbpd to 32.5 mbpd. Saudi Arabia will reduce its output by 486 kbpd while Iraq agreed to cut production by 210 kbpd. The main obstacle remains the involvement of non-OPEC members to cut their oil production. However, in its turn Russia has already agreed to cut its oil output by 300 kbpd. Agreement conditions will be fully implemented by January, 2017 and will remain in force for 6 months. Reacting on that the oil prices have performed significant rally rising on up to 9% and triggering huge risk hunger across the market.

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  • #263
  • Dec 2, 2016 5:03am Dec 2, 2016 5:03am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Friday, December 2nd

The GBP/USD pair remains in positive mood so far, extending its Thursday’s advance into early Europe. Yesterday the pound rose for approximately two cents against its American counterpart inspired by statement of Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union D.Davis that he will consider EU budget payments if required to keep access to EU markets. The statement of UK Brexit minister revived hopes of a soft Brexit and forced the pound to refresh its two-months highs near 1.2700 level. Today most likely the pair will stay under bullish control amid broad US dollar’s correction after positive data witnessed yesterday. However, later in NA session NFP will grab most of traders’ attention providing the pair with strong short-term impetus.

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  • #264
  • Dec 5, 2016 5:13am Dec 5, 2016 5:13am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Monday, December 5th

Yesterday Italian PM M.Renzi failed on his attempt to hold a constitutional reform, without meeting any support from Italian residents at the recent national referendum, that lead to significant moves across the FX market. The politician admitted his defeat and announced decision to resign after the final results were published. Moreover, M.Renzi noted that it was clear win of “No” voters and he will take full responsibility for the defeat. Also PM was surprised by a high level of turnout during referendum. Many of experts have already compared Italian referendum with Brexit.


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  • #265
  • Dec 6, 2016 5:16am Dec 6, 2016 5:16am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Tuesday, December 6th

Having faced resistance near yesterday highs, marked in 0.75 region, the AUD/USD pair has come under renewed selling pressure stepping down to its comfort zone located near 0.7450 level. Today the Aussie was unable to benefit from RBA’s decision of keeping its interest rate unchanged as dovish statement announced after RBA’s meeting showed bank’s expectations of a slower economy growth rate in short-term perspective. Moreover, lower commodities witnessed this morning are also providing some bearish momentum to resource-linked currencies such as Australian dollar. Nothing important is scheduled for the pair in data calendar for today, so the major will keep floating under influence of global market sentiments awaiting for Australian GDP scheduled for next Asian session.

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  • #266
  • Dec 7, 2016 5:17am Dec 7, 2016 5:17am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Wednesday, December 7th

The Aussie fell sharply this morning in the pair with American peer as Australian economy provided the market with extremely disappointing data. The AUD/USD pair performed abrupt downslide for 60 pips refreshing its two-days lows at 0.7417 spot as Australian GDP on quarter basis missed markets expectations showing drop for 0.5% vs. expected growth of 0.3%. After yesterday’s RBA flat decision on its interest rate, investors had started to reconsider their forecast of Australian economic growth rate in better way, that turned pointless. Today traders will await for data from US labor market and weekly Crude Oil Inventories but most probably it won’t be able recover morning’s disappointment.

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  • #267
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:39am Dec 8, 2016 4:39am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Thursday, December 8th

The USD/CAD pair corrects after yesterday’s massive rally triggered by BoC’s decision. As it was widely expected yesterday the Bank of Canada left its interest rate unchanged and presented a moderate economic growth outlook sending the pair to the lowest level since October, marked at 1.3208 spot. Moreover, pair’s decline was also supported by better tone in oil prices after higher-than-expected drop in oil inventories released straight away after the decision of the BoC. Expectedly today the pair will extend its corrective move as only secondary data releases are scheduled in data calendar from both sides.

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  • #268
  • Dec 9, 2016 5:21am Dec 9, 2016 5:21am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Friday, December 9th

Today the euro bears took a breather in Asia allowing the EUR/USD pair to recover part of its recent significant losses. Yesterday the major currency pair slipped down for a two figures after the ECB announced its intention to extend its QE program. The ECB will prolong its monetary policy easing measures beyond March 2017 to at least December 2017, but will also cut the monthly bond purchase from 80 billion down to 60 billion EUR. Reacting on that the pair fell sharply refreshing its 4-day lows in the region of 1.06. Today the major will continue trading under bearish pressure as the market is still digesting yesterdays ECB announcement especially in light of ongoing speculations of Feds decision scheduled on the next week.

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  • #269
  • Dec 12, 2016 5:15am Dec 12, 2016 5:15am

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Monday, December 12th

On Sunday 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut its oil outputs in total by 558kbpd, most of which (300kbpd) will take Russia. This amount of cuts will be added to total OPEC agreed oil production cuts of 1.2mbpd. The total volume of oil output cuts is amounting to nearly a 2% of global oil supply. Reacting on that oil prices have refreshed its tops on levels last seen in July 2015. Moreover, inspired by oil price rally commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and AUD have also benefited from the latest headlines. Currently the USD/CAD pair is trading near its 2-moht low, marked at 1.3112, while the Aussie has also recovered a smile against its American counterpart regaining some pips after downside rally witnessed last Friday. And now the AUD/USD pair now is hovering in region of 0.7450 level.

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  • #270
  • Dec 13, 2016 5:02am Dec 13, 2016 5:02am

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Tuesday, December 13th

Currently the EUR/USD is trading in a flat range of 15 pips consolidating yesterday’s gains in the region of 1.0630 on the back of dollar’s correction across the market. Yesterday the pair was able to gain some pips as traders have started to perform profit-taking actions in anticipation of crucial event of this week. However, the main currency pair failed on several attempts to build its bullish momentum during Asia as returned demand for US currency ahead of two-day FOMC meeting is limiting pair’s upside tractions. The immediate focus now lays on the ZEW economic surveys that will be released during Europe while, the US economy will bring today only secondary macro data.

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  • #271
  • Dec 14, 2016 5:13am Dec 14, 2016 5:13am

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Wednesday, December 14th

The day of the most discussed event is here. Today the Fed will announce a decision regarding its further monetary policy. The market is widely expecting that the Fed will increase its interest rate by 25 bps, from current 0.50% to 0.75% as odds of today’s rate hike are close to 100%. Moreover, recent presidential elections with D.Trump’s promises of tax cuts and high investments in US infrastructure are also pushing FOMC members to make hawkish decision today. Furthermore, not only D.Trump’s talks are making Fed’s rate-hike possible, macroeconomic data seen over the last few months were highly supportive that also contributes to further monetary policy tightening. But for now, seems that the market is keeping silence ahead of crucial Fed’s decision that will be announced by the end of NA session.

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  • #272
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:02am Dec 15, 2016 5:02am

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Thursday, December 15th

And the decision is made. As it was widely expected yesterday the Fed increased its interest rate by 25 bps from previous 0.50% to current 0.75%, significantly boosting the US currency against its major peers. Moreover, the Fed in its statement, announced straight away after FOMC meeting, showed hawkish intentions of having 3 more interest rate hikes during 2017, up from 2 previously planned. Fed's Chairwoman J.Yellen during her interview also has provided the US dollar with some bullish impetus noting that interest rate raise should be perceived as confidence in the US economy. The US Dollar index that measures dollars positions against its main competitors rose up to 102.58 once again refreshing its 13-year highs.

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  • #273
  • Dec 16, 2016 4:54am Dec 16, 2016 4:54am

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Friday, December 16th

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD refreshed its 14-year lows at 1.0366 spot inspired by recent events from US economy. However, the euro bulls were able to retake control over the pair by the end of the NA session and now the major is expanding its recovery beyond the level of 1.04. Expectedly the pair will continue to extend its rebound following US dollar’s dynamics while Eurozone’s CPI and data from US housing market will also be closely watched for any short-term impetus on the pair.

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  • #274
  • Dec 19, 2016 4:52am Dec 19, 2016 4:52am

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Monday, December 19th

The EUR/USD continues to build recovery at the start of the week from its 14-year lows marked last at 1.0366 spot. Currently the main currency pair is trading above the mid-point of 1.04 level finding support from ongoing correction of the US dollar against its major peers. However, pair’s recovery seems to be capped as better tone amid risk associated assets, driven by higher oil prices, is pressuring on the major. Today beside US dollar’s dynamics the pair will also be influenced by German Ifo Business Climate Index released in early Europe and by Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s speech that is scheduled on NA session.

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  • #275
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:49am Dec 20, 2016 4:49am

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Tuesday, December 20th

And another rate decision approached the market this morning. The BOJ left its interest rate unchanged at -0.1% with upbeat outlook of the economy. In its monetary policy statement, the BOJ increased its prospects of GDP and inflation growth rates for 2017. However, positive statement of the BOJ failed to provide the USD/JPY pair with any bearish momentum as investors had already priced-in any hawkish comments of BOJ members by that time. Moreover, the pair has strengthened its bid tone after head of the BOJ H.Kuroda reiterated that the Japanese CB is ready to adjust its monetary policy to reach its inflation target level. Currently the major is trading above the level of 118 moving away from its overnight lows marked just a few pips away from 117 level.

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  • #276
  • Dec 21, 2016 5:02am Dec 21, 2016 5:02am

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Wednesday, December 21st

The yen showed one of the best results across the market in Asia outperforming its American counterpart. The dollar/yen pair came under renewed buying pressure this morning as the greenback is still extending its correction down from its 14-year highs, posted after Fed’s hawkish decision seen last week. Another reason of better bearish tone around the pair is that traders are fixing the profit ahead of winter holydays thereby additionally supporting the yen. Today USD/JPY pair will continue to follow US dollar’s price-dynamics and RO-RO trend while only US Existing Home Sales will be able to set some short-term direction for the pair.

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  • #277
  • Dec 22, 2016 5:09am Dec 22, 2016 5:09am

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Thursday, December 22nd

Having rebounded from the region of its half-year lows posted at 0.6890 earlier this morning, the NZD/USD pair has regained a smile and now is trading above the level of 0.69. The major was trading back and forward this morning on the back of auspicious heavy data bloc from New Zealand on the one hand and fresh wave of buying interest around the US dollar on another. However, a strong GDP report seen this morning eased experts’ expectations of RBNZ monetary policy easing, thereby lending extra leg to the Kiwi. Today, amid lowered trading activity the pair will remain influenced by global market’s sentiments while US heavy-data calendar will be able to bring some trading opportunities for the pair.

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  • #278
  • Dec 23, 2016 5:12am Dec 23, 2016 5:12am

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Friday, December 23rd

On Thursday the EUR/USD pair stepped into the region of 1.05 inspired by good news from Italy. Yesterday the Italian government approved the program aimed to support fragile banks, with one of the most injured - Monte Dei Paschi, that is the third largest commercial and retail bank in Italy. The Italian government will provide more than 20 billion euros within banks’ support program. But nevertheless, the major faded the spike quickly as the US dollar remains broadly stronger and is limiting euro’s sharp upper moves. However, seems that euro bulls are still strong enough to maintain pair’s growing trend this Friday. Currently the main currency pair is trading around the mid-point of 1.04 level stepping away from its overnight lows marked at 1.0435.

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  • #279
  • Dec 27, 2016 5:00am Dec 27, 2016 5:00am

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Tuesday, December 27th

Today the EUR/USD pair breaks its 4-day winning streak and turns lower amid tightened trading activity on the market. Moreover, ongoing concerns around Italian banks which include the world’s oldest bank Monte Dei Paschi, are weighing moods around the common currency. However, the major currency pair has managed to rebound from its overnight lows posted at 1.0432 and now is trading around mid-point of 1.04 level as minor correction seen around the US dollar is lending support to the EUR/USD pair. Today the major will continue to track sentiments around the US dollar amid post-Christmas low trading volumes and minimal volatility across the market.

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  • #280
  • Dec 28, 2016 4:43am Dec 28, 2016 4:43am

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Wednesday, December 28th

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair managed to break out of its bearish trend and performed upper move refreshing today’s tops at 1.0480 spot despite better-than-expected US CB Consumer Confidence seen in the last NY session. Yesterday better readings from US economy failed to provide any bullish impetus on the US dollar as investors are awaiting for more detailed D.Trump’s economic outlook to perform any further important steps. Today the pair will keep tracing global market’s sentiments as Eurozone’s docket remains empty, while US Pending Home Sales may provide fresh impetus to the greenback across the board.

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