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  • #146,541
  • Dec 20, 2016 5:08am Dec 20, 2016 5:08am
Tracking UTRY for possible short term upwards break. 5420 as key zone.
  • #146,542
  • Edited 7:29am Dec 20, 2016 7:16am | Edited 7:29am
A very decent European session with soft hands trying and falling to catch a 14 year bottom keep feeding the Euro down. NY playing ball can close the year in the Euro (also YEN) as early as today US session.

The oldest bank in the world (1472 ...damn thats old) about to confirm what was already a fact since early in the year. Monte Paschi about to trigger the first major public bailout in a rich country since the 2008 financial debacle. Just waiting for the final announcement 'any minute' confirming the sad end of an iconic institution.

Equities are on steroids and keep ignoring all around as its usual on moves like this but I am keeping a very close eye in the banking stocks first in Italy and then on the rest of the continent from todays close onwards as this is the weakest link in the chain in Europe.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,543
  • Dec 20, 2016 7:27am Dec 20, 2016 7:27am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Short term legs in development a bit unsymetrical for now with TRY leading and ZAR lagging but soon to follow. BRL and MXN not in this play. Got stoped on long attempt in mid London for small loss but loaded another on micro entry. EDIT: Tomorrow London session eyes on DAX for possible upward extension. {image}
Closing 30% of DE30 longs on 1465 as expected London went along and played on break. 11500 left for the second target. TRY still lining up nicely for thrust, still fishing for micro entry/es.
  • #146,544
  • Dec 20, 2016 7:35am Dec 20, 2016 7:35am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Closing 30% of DE30 longs on 1465 as expected London went along and played on break. 11500 left for the second target. TRY still lining up nicely for thrust, still fishing for micro entry/es.
Only a 'miracle' will avoid a further break in TRY. Turkey has a populist quasi 'dictator' that has wiped out all public institutions since the so call self made 'coup'.

Extra official sources under the table talks that the end of the little independence CB from politics is around the corner...

Whatever the case Turkey is going to be by far the biggest flop this year....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,545
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:55am Dec 20, 2016 8:55am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Only a 'miracle' will avoid a further break in TRY. Turkey has a populist quasi 'dictator' that has wiped out all public institutions since the so call self made 'coup'. Extra official sources under the table talks that the end of the little independence CB from politics is around the corner... Whatever the case Turkey is going to be by far the biggest flop this year.... sisse
Dont be so harsh on him he had some pretty good idea about economy last time, he will take control over CB and implement negative rates! And then perhaps he will step into spaceship and flown into fifth dimension.
On serious note you are probably right either Turkey or Venezuela with a bit of Mexican spice in between. The only miracle that can stop the break is proper short squeeze from emergency hike Russian style, however good question would be what is actual room for TCB to pull such trigger, Russia had significantly better aspects to do that, not sure about Turkey. So far most of EM CBs have pulled the trigger, some soft and some hard, Turkey a bit lagging behind.
  • #146,546
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:19am Dec 20, 2016 9:19am
Lots of action across the board on the opening range. Eyed on DJ as expected we are set for triggering 20000 for the main media headlines.

More importantly for those in OIL triggering imminent short term break' alerts to unlock the final extension. For those following the conversation in CAD all eyes on the 1.34xx handle. We are set to enter in 'choose your poison time' for the mid term ...

On the rest of the board Euro and Yen trading air and they will easily move as collateral of the board on any soft wind ....

Day far from over as NY looks interested in killing the year ASAP ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,547
  • Dec 20, 2016 12:05pm Dec 20, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} How about 1.14 from here? I'll surely have fun @ everyone later... {image}
It made a NEW low
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #146,548
  • Edited 1:59pm Dec 20, 2016 1:42pm | Edited 1:59pm
TRY lining up nicely still no change but since we didnt get pop today, tomorrow is on play. Setting up alarm clock early today, the best RR micro/macro setup on TRY is usually around 3-6 GMT AM, if all is lining up well it usually shows up, strong volatility squeeze and then often led by London pop. Early hour but defenetly worth a wake.

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UK100 tracking tomorrow 7044 intraday for possible break and hold and expanded move above into October highs (and opening valid target for few years all time highs).
  • #146,549
  • Dec 20, 2016 3:19pm Dec 20, 2016 3:19pm
A soft US session at the end with nothing new across the board .... markets starting to feel tired and pretty much ready to enter in Holiday mode.

--> We only have a handful of soft reports left. Expecting markets to slowly shift to Brexit 2.0 mode in the upcoming days. UK ready to go 'full monty' for the negotiations in cocky mode with a huge divergence from what markets are trading and how things are moving in the background in the largest corporations & banks and the average Joe in the street that is happily assuming nothing happened...

--> Expecting lots of political BS and posturing that will extend all the way to late January and has its climax in early Q2 to close this chapter.... so get ready as 2017 looks set for plenty of fireworks from start to end ....

On the rest of the board, nothing really to update with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,550
  • Dec 20, 2016 3:25pm Dec 20, 2016 3:25pm
Quoting sisse
.... with a huge divergence from what markets are trading and how things are moving in the background in the largest corporations & banks and the average Joe in the street that is happily assuming nothing happened... --> Expecting lots of political BS and posturing that will extend all the way to late January and has its climax in early Q2 to close this chapter.... so get ready as 2017 looks set for plenty of fireworks from start to end .... On the rest of the board, nothing really to update with same levels, same trades,...
Do you have any "binary events" on the radar in that time frame? French elections and the run-up thereto?

I think the fireworks are there and ready to go but it's kind of hard to name the date when the sparks will fly. When tshtf it will be so fast it might be impossible to trade unless you already have something setup to catch it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,551
  • Dec 20, 2016 3:38pm Dec 20, 2016 3:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Do you have any "binary events" on the radar in that time frame? French elections and the run-up thereto? I think the fireworks are there and ready to go but it's kind of hard to name the date when the sparks will fly. When tshtf it will be so fast it might be impossible to trade unless you already have something setup to catch it.
-> Sure French and German elections but thats is still far and soft risk (as per today obviously).

-> Tricky one for Brexit as there is a long expectations play.

First is the noise and posturing (not binary), then when they announce when they are going to trigger article 50 (the actual starting day of the process is irrelevant) thats a mover and shaker but is not scheduled (again is not a binary event as its a fact), then is negotations (that a cluster fck and not binary) ...the only one from the Brexit front that could be a binary event (but not scheduled) is later if they put on the table leaving the common market (which will be a double suicide btw) or not ...

-> So from the European side, all is on the UK front until they announce the article 50.

-> On the US side, is just when Trump honeymoon ends but there is nothing scheduled beyond macro numbers and Trump announcing something very stupid in terms of economy, foreign trade or policy (v. possible but too early to even consider marketwise).

-> On the Chinese side, just macro numbers on the horizon.

-> On the emerging economies, lots of action in the horizon. From Turkey intervening in the next couple of days, to Venezuela complete collapse, to Russia taking back a bit further in the Caspian front to Mexico collapsing in a spiral of nationalism and internal violence...all in play in the horizon.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,552
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:04pm Dec 20, 2016 4:04pm
Some Euro events coming up.
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  • #146,553
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:04pm Dec 20, 2016 4:04pm
http://www.salon.com/2016/12/20/mick...onomic-growth/

It's one thing for candidate Trump to suggest the US can default on it debts. It'll be another when President Trump does so.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,554
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:27pm Dec 20, 2016 4:27pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.salon.com/2016/12/20/mick...onomic-growth/ It's one thing for candidate Trump to suggest the US can default on it debts. It'll be another when President Trump does so.
Look at history to calculate probabilities. Last many times when man tried to put alternative to current system which default would be part of, it went south. No matter which part of globe it was, it went south. Therefore probabilities for that to happen are very low, if it does happen value extracted can be amazing, but if you dont have pinched risk system market can swallow and eat you like the JGB shorters in 90s who though shorting JGBs is gona make anyone long the strongest fool ever. As Kissinger putted it dollar and Tbills are backed by strongest army in the world, and perhaps side money channels of goverment would also say there is hard lock for CIA and similar agencies to block any micro before it gets too bad. A man who moves with the rules of system can yield the power of such rules but if going against the power could quickly be striped away, even a US president could be stripped of quickly if there is intent. If you go against higher macro with high performance you will likely fail. Just saying putting this man with his view into Trump cabinet could mean nothing on actual default pattern. There could be low potential expectations play from it (but short lived), but facts play most likely not. US Tbills and bonds are such esential part of global capital and trade flows that those who are on top of pyramid would never let it to become ruin, as their wealth would get completly redistributed. It was stopped every time in past and there is no brainer to worry about that to happen most likely. This is just one of those interesting and disturbing news articles that newer gets to fruition.
  • #146,555
  • Dec 20, 2016 5:25pm Dec 20, 2016 5:25pm
Quoting janpec1000
This is just one of those interesting and disturbing news articles that newer gets to fruition.
yeah, I know. Trump is stacking his cabinet with a mix of half-baked nuts and Goldman Sachs school oligarchs. He himself is liable to tweet whatever comes into his old brain at 3:00 AM. You want to "trade expectations?" Well, who knows what to expect when the Circus takes over the government? Could be pretty interesting. So is overdosing on LSD ---- before ya die.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,556
  • Dec 20, 2016 5:43pm Dec 20, 2016 5:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah, I know. Trump is stacking his cabinet with a mix of half-baked nuts and Goldman Sachs school oligarchs. He himself is liable to tweet whatever comes into his old brain at 3:00 AM. You want to "trade expectations?" Well, who knows what to expect when the Circus takes over the government? Could be pretty interesting. So is overdosing on LSD ---- before ya die.
Expectations are always part of larger macro, this is above goverment. Goverment as pattern has low probability for it to become circus (stable and predictable vs non). Thus whatever you define as circus has low probability to pattern itself. Just becouse Trump is president it doesnt mean proper market forces are taking full swing swipes for mid/long term moves. Change of goverment first needs to be confirmed on micros, for now nothing has changed, if micros dont change, macro has no chance at all.
  • #146,557
  • Dec 21, 2016 7:38am Dec 21, 2016 7:38am
Hi sisse,
If you have the time before the holidays..you mentioned you would discuss your own flip of 1.058x before the FOMC. I read over the posts in which you described the price action that you look at, but just wondering do you also pay particular attention to days when fundamental data or when CBs are speaking to identify the flip area?

If I was here at the time, I would have chosen 1.062x as the flip as that is where the market settled at the close on Nov 17th after a Yellen speech (not sure if it was relevant enough for market participants to be taking notice of).
Do you wait a certain amount of days before identifying your flip level once a certain low is hit? In hindsight, 1.058x looks like the right flip, but what process do you go through when getting the level in real-time.
Also, do you focus more on price levels that are traded in the opening hours of European/US equities.

Just for reference, 1.041x would be my current flip level as that is where the market settled on Dec 15th after US data was released.

Regards, pas.
p.s. haven't had enough time to participate in the thread lately..so if you want to concentrate on the regular posters, no bother.
  • #146,558
  • Dec 21, 2016 9:31am Dec 21, 2016 9:31am
Quoting PAStalker
..... Do you wait a certain amount of days before identifying your flip level once a certain low is hit?
NO

Quote
Also, do you focus more on price levels that are traded in the opening hours of European/US equities.

NO

...you are looking from the wrong angle. First try checking some backpost related to flip / momentum and etc. Second you are out of scope. In the case you are mentioning don't track intraday moves ...we were talking about a mid term swing !!!!....Third nothing better than a quick live exercise right now ...it might help:

Only for @PAStalker if you have to choose the 'flip' RIGHT NOW for the intraday range where should it be?:

a. 1.035x
b. 1.044x
c. 1.052x
d. No clue / none of the above [call yours here ]

You have till the London fix to call it...

We'll talk later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,559
  • Edited 9:43am Dec 21, 2016 9:32am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting PAStalker
Hi sisse, If you have the time before the holidays..you mentioned you would discuss your own flip of 1.058x before the FOMC. I read over the posts in which you described the price action that you look at, but just wondering do you also pay particular attention to days when fundamental data or when CBs are speaking to identify the flip area? If I was here at the time, I would have chosen 1.062x as the flip as that is where the market settled at the close on Nov 17th after a Yellen speech (not sure if it was relevant enough for market participants...
How about this theory (prefaced with the standard noob alert). On the daily chart the Nov 20th candle shows (albeit somewhat weak)buying pressure from about 580 after the larger run down. Assuming that most of those stops were at multi-year lows at 1.04xx those buyers and ones from above, were still in the game after the drop to 505ish on 12/4. So going into the event 580 represents the point at which most of the buyers prepositioning for the coming news would be on the right or wrong side. I had 610, then 624 but after the fact 580 looked right so I was thinking about it too. My thoughts.
  • #146,560
  • Edited 10:35am Dec 21, 2016 10:12am | Edited 10:35am
Bought UCAD, targeting larger mid term macro and another attempt on 3410 takeout, failure of 53,70 WTI adds a bit to view. Didnt get any entry on TRY, still attempting on both TRY and MXN along larger macro.

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Still holding De30 and Uk100 longs, but tracking tomorrow and day after for possible London drive and mid term pop.
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