The Really Useless Thread

...Vancouver RE market = Insanity.

Well yes. Sure there is risk events that could influence any country. But in this sense Risk means that CAD has very little as risk off instrument. CAD is not really consider a risk related instrument for the purpose of analysis.

- Safe heaven- USD hedge instrument for big players?

Definitively is the quintessential haven instrument. This is a main Dollar characteristic

Sure well not only commodities but is the largest economy in the world so it has a huge importance in both supply and demand side of almost every single sector worldwide....

....

Nobody have mentioned one of the most important one: Is the only RESERVE currency in the world.

anything else?

sisse

USD Reserve currently but so is EU isn't it?

60% for USD , 20% for EUR on a gloabl scale , that's a big gap

Arguable yes because of size and importance but still yet to pass the final test of history (we are currently witnessing). It was on the brink to compete 'vis--vis' with Dollar before the Debt Crisis. Euro has survived so far the biggest test in their young history. If it manage to survive the next couple of years I think it will become a strong candidate to take the lead with Dollar in the long term....

sisse

All western countries (including Australia and New-Zealand) as well as Japan are dependent of USA politically and security.

Nope, reserve means safe play (depends how that is defined though), EUR is currency tied by fractured nations that have been in conflict for centuries before the formation. Safe can be perception until it isnt, but until it isnt safe is defenetly not what EUR is atm.

Yeh, but so is any market that is outscaled of proportion in terms of large macro. Any week you can find one asset that follows what you said above. Yet usually they go higher until they crash like a jet without the fuel. Thats why shitty assets go up and up long time before they come to their "real" value.

Production, and import / export ( trade )

on a side note:

I am having a hard time determinig risk on/off and its implications

I think risk on would mean that investors would be putting money into gold/silver, USD, yen, and euro, and also bonds due to lower risk for losses

is this right? Also having a hard time telling when it is risk on vs risk off

please discuss for later after current topic

+++CAD MATRIX ++++

Ok so. We have in a very basic framework the main CAD elements.

CAD = CAD /USD.

--> From the CAD side.

@Earleone (@ anybody interested) What are the main macro forces that affect CAD??

 

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy.
2. Interest Rates
3. Commodities!!!
4. International Trade

--> Now from the USD side (this should come automatically in no time as Dollar is the king across the FX board):

1. Macro economic factors
2. Monetary policy (interest rates)
3. International Trade
4. Risk
5. Reserve Currency

Ok so those are the main factors (there are obviously not only the factors in each but its irrelevant for this exercise). Let's build the matrix: PUT '^' or '^^' or '^^^' in each of the factors.

^ = soft
^^ = neutral
^^^ = strong

Lets crowdsource this just for the sake of the argument. I will put the first vote in one as example.


-> SHORT TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy.
2. Interest Rates = ^
3. Commodities!!!
4. International Trade

-> MID TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy.
2. Interest Rates = ^
3. Commodities!!!
4. International Trade

-> LONG TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy.
2. Interest Rates = ^^
3. Commodities!!!
4. International Trade

Make an effort to think carefully. If you 'hack' this part properly you will be able to build your outlook properly and the rest will be pure technicalities to translate in trading decisions...

sisse

-> SHORT TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. =^
2. Interest Rates = ^
3. Commodities!!! =^^
4. International Trade =^

-> MID TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. =^^
2. Interest Rates = ^
3. Commodities!!! =^^^
4. International Trade =^

-> LONG TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. =^^^
2. Interest Rates = ^^
3. Commodities!!! =^^^
4. International Trade =^^

@hoom good one ...

anybody else ...

Some hints in no particular order:

1. Canada just signed a new trade agreement with the EU (which is the opposite of the trend in the UK and US)
2. NAFTA is under threat because of TRUMP
3. TRUMP infrastructure plan will pump commodities especially positive for Canada
4. Economy is still soft but Q3 printed very solid numbers
5. Inflation in on track
6. Political and Economic stability will be a super ++++ given populism in US and UK / Europe
7. Conflict and War are on the rise. Good for OIL.
8. Housing market is showing some alerts signs

sisse

Expectations:
Currently slow growth in Canada
No planned rate hikes short / middle term
Not the biggest upside potential for oil mid to long term.
Uncertainty Trade ( Nafta ) middle term / Long term
-> SHORT TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. ^
2. Interest Rates = ^
3. Commodities!!! ^^^
4. International Trade ^^^

-> MID TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. ^^
2. Interest Rates = ^
3. Commodities!!! ^^
4. International Trade ^

-> LONG TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. ^^
2. Interest Rates = ^^
3. Commodities!!! ^^
4. International Trade ^^

Sadly bad news from Berlin ... another coward lunatic hitting civilians .... seems unrelated with terrorist for now... and we are set to lose the handle for the roll in the Euro...

sisse

Perfect thanks, so lets do @hoom and @ Earleone crowdsource outlook.

CAD @hoom | @ Earleone
SHORT TERM CAD

1. Macro economic factors =^ | ^
2. Interest Rates = ^ | ^
3. Commodities!!! =^^ | ^^^
4. International Trade =^ | ^^^

TOTAL ^ = 13 out of 24 => CAD* Outlook Neutral

-> MID TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic =^^ | ^^
2. Interest Rates = ^ | ^
3. Commodities!!! =^^^ | ^^
4. International Trade =^ | ^

TOTAL ^ = 13 out of 24 => CAD* Outlook Neutral

-> LONG TERM CAD SIDE

1. Macro economic factors (GDP, employment, inflation etc etc) from Canadian Economy. =^^^ | ^^
2. Interest Rates = ^^ | ^^
3. Commodities!!! =^^^ | ^^
4. International Trade =^^ | ^^

TOTAL ^ = 18 out of 24 => CAD* Outlook Soft Buy

USD outlooks current

SHORT TERM => Buy
MID TERM => Buy
LONG TERM => Neutral

----> we can do the outlook now:

USD/CAD @hoom & @ Earleone outlook for the RUT.

We will bookmark this and ask you to update accordingly when things change.

-> Short Term => BUY / NEUTRAL
-> Mid Term => BUY / NEUTRAL
-> Long Term => NEUTRAL / SOFT BUY

You can clearly call the final outlook direction for each, don't you ? (ST= Long, MT= Long, LT = Sell)

sisse

...and we rolled on the handle ... nothing to see. BOJ and some final numbers from the the US and we are ready to close the week and year....

sisse

@hoom | @ Earleone in CAD. Now you can map the trades. What is in play for the Y/Q/M close in the mid and long term? ... thats first for your eyes only with your TA tools ... lets keep the conversation open to see how it pans out....

sisse

I post a weekly map with the main levels how I look it. And a more detailed chart daily with some more handles.

No , qte opposite.

This should make it clear

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/...n-risk-off.asp

thank you and i will check it out right now

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz.../#80bfe7324b3f

Somebody put on this March FXI strangle today. (This is the nice thing about exchange traded products - you can see all the trades that execute, in real time.) This is a bi-directional trade on China - either China will continue to spook investors because of its bubbles, or they will pile back in as the developed country govts splurge on infrastructure spending.

I rather think China will be beat down, figuratively if not literally, and, even if that doesn't come to pass, the failed attempt might yield the same result....for the stocks.

Strangles are not really my thing, though - I'm too poor. Somebody spent about $1.66MM on the strangle shown - a $5 move either way by Mar17 would net the trader a little over $2MM