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  • #146,461
  • Dec 19, 2016 6:31am Dec 19, 2016 6:31am
Quoting The Fool
short CNY http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonch.../#634085394fe8
Better play is trough more volatile currencies that are strongly corelated to CNY and China exposure (or inversly to USD), you get more bang for the buck. Altough it depends if you trade it trough options then perhaps CNY is better choice.
  • #146,462
  • Dec 19, 2016 6:47am Dec 19, 2016 6:47am
A soft European sessions over with one important update. As suspected since last month markets expecting a very noisy last few days of the year from the Brexit front.

--> First, last week under the FED noise, a few more banks and largest financials institutions in the City keep triggering contingency plans for next year and we have nearly a clear initial picture of all the moves from London to the EU after article 50.

A huge 'psychological' impact of the extend of what is cooking for next year, a 328 years London historical institution' Lloyds insurance market' set to establish EU base in 2017.

--> More importantly today, Scotland back into the picture confirming they will ask again to split from the UK if they lose access to the common market. Irrelevant the details as its political posturing but get ready as we are on the verge to open Brexit Chapter 2 in the coming weeks. Chapter one killed the Pound. Chapter two...? ...expecting wild volatile in Sterling* to start anytime soon short term and extend deep in to Q1 2014:

--> Confirming mid and short term outlook in Sterling (GU) in neutral but very wide range (one of the widest range short term in play across the FX board in years!!!)
--> Changing short term outlook in EG from short soft sell to neutral

On the rest of the board, nothing to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,463
  • Dec 19, 2016 7:04am Dec 19, 2016 7:04am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Better play is trough more volatile currencies that are strongly corelated to CNY and China exposure (or inversly to USD), you get more bang for the buck. Altough it depends if you trade it trough options then perhaps CNY is better choice.
From Danske:
"We see a clear risk that global markets have become too complacent about Chinese risks and that financial turmoil in China could resurface in 2017. Slowing growth, increasing financial imbalances and rising tensions with the US strengthen the risk."

They recommend long USD/CNY by the way.
You reap what you sow.
  • #146,464
  • Dec 19, 2016 7:19am Dec 19, 2016 7:19am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} From Danske: "We see a clear risk that global markets have become too complacent about Chinese risks and that financial turmoil in China could resurface in 2017. Slowing growth, increasing financial imbalances and rising tensions with the US strengthen the risk." They recommend long USD/CNY by the way.
And capturing submarine drone here and there surely doesnt help either.
  • #146,465
  • Dec 19, 2016 7:20am Dec 19, 2016 7:20am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} From Danske: "We see a clear risk that global markets have become too complacent about Chinese risks and that financial turmoil in China could resurface in 2017. Slowing growth, increasing financial imbalances and rising tensions with the US strengthen the risk." They recommend long USD/CNY by the way.
China is a very difficult beast to analyse especially given the almost close and state control nature on how their macro numbers are reported. However, I am extremely cautious reading some 'sources' especially from some US media outlets as they reflect more 'hidden' political interest rather than actual objective economic value analysis.

There is too much political interest, especially now with Trump elected to destabilise and create uncertainty in China economic outlook. Not implying that everything is roses but neither buy that the 'PBOC wasn't prepare or doesn't have policy options for the FED'. Ridiculous, patronising and technical wrong to say the least !!!

We'll discuss in detail on the wrap up of the year but IMO the risk in the global economy for 2017 are skewed heavily towards first Europe (Brexit toll in the whole Continent will be big, one way or the other), US second (Trump faux pas or inflation), third emerging markets (bar China) and only after in China....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,466
  • Dec 19, 2016 8:03am Dec 19, 2016 8:03am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} And capturing submarine drone here and there surely doesnt help either.
All this information...too free for me. Something is up.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #146,467
  • Dec 19, 2016 8:19am Dec 19, 2016 8:19am
Quoting sisse
{quote} China is a very difficult beast to analyse especially given the almost close and state control nature on how their macro numbers are reported. However, I am extremely cautious reading some 'sources' especially from some US media outlets as they reflect more 'hidden' political interest rather than actual objective economic value analysis. There is too much political interest, especially now with Trump elected to destabilise and create uncertainty in China economic outlook. Not implying that everything is roses but neither buy that the 'PBOC...
Well that is true there is a lot of deception intentionally hiden in news, but that doesnt mean that market reads that on short term basis. Probably majority of market participants do not see the hidden agenda behind the news they read about China and they do help to shape the whichever instrument it is impacting. For example you could say low cap company CEO hires marketing team to create intentional pump and dump, why trust him buying that stock. Well there is difference between facts and market reactions, market will push that stock up no matter how large the deception play behind is, sure it will crash later but before that later it went up a lot. If there is political play against China whether its hidden in news play, lobbying, naked shorts it does have bearish impact that is the bottom line. In fact the more propaganda its put out there, the more bearish impact it has , fear is interesting concept becouse it blows up human reactions to irrational proportions, few stories about weak PBOC just add fuel to fire.
  • #146,468
  • Dec 19, 2016 8:35am Dec 19, 2016 8:35am
Quoting janpec1000
.... China whether its hidden in news play, lobbying, naked shorts it does have bearish impact that is the bottom line. ....
Most of those news has nothing to do with economics or markets perception or market positioning or some XYZ company trying to benefit from the noise but rather pure old fashion international relations political reasons...that the issue and that's my point.

Markets are not reading that yet, neither Macro numbers (the ones available as skewed as they might be), neither most real investors.... in simple words just political BS...

NY to open. Eyes on DJ this week hitting 12000 for the headlines only and to give away a very Happy Christmas and last very easy rally in probably a while....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,469
  • Dec 19, 2016 9:00am Dec 19, 2016 9:00am
Quoting The Fool
short CNY http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonch.../#634085394fe8
If not EM currencies then perhaps even better play is trough BTC. We are just taping the highs with pattern to break towards 1k, China is heavily connected to BTC especially on risk on play. I believe we are going to set some new historical lessons for risk on assets where BTC will set a new stage on how risk on events and capital controls by state are going to fail (on small scale). Just saying go where the oportunity is dont stick to CNY just becouse you see direct play there more often than not the real value is in side routes.
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  • #146,470
  • Dec 19, 2016 10:27am Dec 19, 2016 10:27am
That was it for the European sessions. Very moving session in the currency front both in Yen* and Sterling*.

More importantly, keep a close eye in GOLD and short term risk assets in general as we have some rather tricky news from Turkey and Russia. Not really 'important' marketwise beyond the headline but early warnings of what is setting for 2017 and beyond.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,471
  • Edited 11:27am Dec 19, 2016 11:17am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting janpec1000
Here we go again another round of short term up legs on EMs in USDX.
Short term legs in development a bit unsymetrical for now with TRY leading and ZAR lagging but soon to follow. BRL and MXN not in this play. Got stoped on long attempt in mid London for small loss but loaded another on micro entry.

EDIT: Tomorrow London session eyes on DAX for possible upward extension.
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  • #146,472
  • Edited 11:32am Dec 19, 2016 11:22am | Edited 11:32am
Confirmed the news from Turkey.... This is going to have a long long long spillover effects in the upcoming weeks. Short term reaction TRY getting hammered one more time this year but expecting US Equities ignore all as we are in manic blind mode until we finish the leg.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,473
  • Dec 19, 2016 11:35am Dec 19, 2016 11:35am
Important update after the latest developments and for those following NGas:

--> Changing short term outlook in NG from buy to aggressive buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,474
  • Dec 19, 2016 11:43am Dec 19, 2016 11:43am
Second important update today:

--> Changing back mid term outlook in CAD back from neutral to SELL.

CAD losing the 1.34xx handle for the year will set a very hard long term top and lock levels all the way down to the 1.41xx handle for 2017.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,475
  • Dec 19, 2016 11:49am Dec 19, 2016 11:49am
Quoting USD-Bear
whatching for 2 levels to build shorts: BUNDS: 163 and above UK100: 7000 and above
started buiding bund shorts @ 163,30 (March Series)
waiting a bit on UK100 shorts
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #146,476
  • Dec 19, 2016 12:02pm Dec 19, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} started buiding bund shorts @ 163,30 (March Series) waiting a bit on UK100 shorts
Agree on FTSE but why in the Bund right now?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,477
  • Dec 19, 2016 12:19pm Dec 19, 2016 12:19pm
Quoting sisse
Second important update today: --> Changing back mid term outlook in CAD back from neutral to SELL. CAD losing the 1.34xx handle for the year will set a very hard long term top and lock levels all the way down to the 1.41xx handle for 2017. sisse
A little bit lost here.
But if it is
1.14xx handle I understand. If 1.41xx I am lost in translation I think.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,478
  • Dec 19, 2016 12:20pm Dec 19, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting sisse
Confirmed the news from Turkey.... This is going to have a long long long spillover effects in the upcoming weeks. Short term reaction TRY getting hammered one more time this year but expecting US Equities ignore all as we are in manic blind mode until we finish the leg. sisse
The GLOBAL effects might begin this week or even today. It depends on Russia reaction:
1- Hawkish reaction against Turkey? how this could be translated into market reaction beside hammering Turkish Lira?
2- Hawkish reaction against civilian in Syria and Alep?
2017 has plenty of dark events and effects! So Gold becomes the only refuge for investors.
  • #146,479
  • Dec 19, 2016 12:27pm Dec 19, 2016 12:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Agree on FTSE but why in the Bund right now? sisse
appr. 50% correction 168->159->163,50 and fundamentals growing stronger by the day
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #146,480
  • Dec 19, 2016 12:42pm Dec 19, 2016 12:42pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} A little bit lost here. But if it is 1.14xx handle I understand. If 1.41xx I am lost in translation I think.
UCAD. @1.34 now.
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