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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,441
  • Dec 16, 2016 1:40pm Dec 16, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting sisse
A calm European session with Equities finding foot as expected since the FED initial flow was settle. Expecting US to follow though in the same line and kill the day after the opening range [check]....
As suspected a very soft session after the opening range. All markets in very simple sessions with nothing to track for the close.

Quoting sisse
...Slightly bullish daily close and we pretty much have set the low and high of the week. [check]
Quoting sisse
No surprises from Italy. No in the referendum as expected. Euro gapping down and sitting 1.056x trigerring imminent break down alerts [check] for the flow.

We have Q/M [in play] /W/D [check]and now even the direct news flow aligned [check]...we may not even hold for the European open.
On the Euro, as expected in a simple flow after the FED high and low of the week were set after the test 1.037x. Only highlight is Euro set to close in a W break of 13 yrs old lows that was more than expected for this week since last NFP. Any extension will come from the M/Q break so for now Euro is officially trading major levels only for the rest of the year.

If you don't know what it means: There wont be another tradable short term swing available for trading this year so everything below Weekly is useless for the next couple of weeks...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,442
  • Dec 16, 2016 1:48pm Dec 16, 2016 1:48pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} How about 1.14 from here? I'll surely have fun @ everyone later... {image}
@sisse I guess this is the "random line game" you were talking about?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post5697023
  • #146,443
  • Dec 16, 2016 2:24pm Dec 16, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} @sisse I guess this is the "random line game" you were talking about? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post5697023
I've been trading this pattern since long time. Some times, it creates an impression of fear and doubt but ultimately it'll show up the result sooner or later. Just need guts to hold the position.

early stage Forex traders need fibs etc.. but still to predict the potential target, fib is the best indicator. I know what he is talking about!
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,444
  • Dec 16, 2016 2:45pm Dec 16, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} I've been trading this pattern since long time. Some times, it creates an impression of fear and doubt but ultimately it'll show up the result sooner or later. Just need guts to hold the position. early stage Forex traders need fibs etc.. but still to predict the potential target, fib is the best indicator. I know what he is talking about!
Cool. Tell you what. whenever eur/usd hits my level (I'll pick 1.1115...no, make it 1.110739) I'll be right. Totally right. Fireworks, champagne, everything. And I'll bray about how much experience took to know it would hit my special level. Stay tuned.
  • #146,445
  • Dec 16, 2016 2:50pm Dec 16, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Cool. Tell you what. whenever eur/usd hits my level (I'll pick 1.1115...no, make it 1.110739) I'll be right. Totally right. Fireworks, champagne, everything. And I'll bray about how much experience took to know it would hit my special level. Stay tuned.
hahaha.. Stay tuned for Sisse posting Imminent Break alert to the upside in Euro.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,446
  • Dec 16, 2016 3:04pm Dec 16, 2016 3:04pm
Quoting Goldflake
Hi Sisse, For some reason i'm seeing spx going up and up till 2200-2250. If there are no hikes in December, Is there any possibility of rallying towards 2200-2300? Please share your Upper boundary levels in SPX.. Many thanks..
SPX and major indexes across the globe are stuck at the top. 2200-2250 zone has some decent resistance. Expecting a ST crash to 2080 and obviously dollar to give up gains!!
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,447
  • Dec 16, 2016 3:18pm Dec 16, 2016 3:18pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} hahaha.. Stay tuned for Sisse posting Imminent Break alert to the upside in Euro.
Read a little bit history here in the thread. We are not trying to catch top or bottoms for entry or trade the retracements.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,448
  • Dec 16, 2016 3:33pm Dec 16, 2016 3:33pm
...and we are rolling with v. slightly W bullish close for the last week of trading before the doldrums of the years end Holidays but with today close we have pretty much lock all the levels down to the 1.07xx handle for the year.

sisse

Quoting goosebone
{quote} Cool. Tell you what. whenever eur/usd hits my level (I'll pick 1.1115...no, make it 1.110739) I'll be right. Totally right. Fireworks, champagne, everything. And I'll bray about how much experience took to know it would hit my special level. Stay tuned.
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Read a little bit history here in the thread. We are not trying to catch top or bottoms for entry or trade the retracements.
Trying to make this thread useful ???? ....

Don't waste your time feeding them ....They always come every few months especially after momentum breaks when they get caught in the wrong side.

Its the usual cycle in trading forums, frustration, anger and etc take over for those caught in the wrong side and not willing to see things from a different angle or accept just the lost for what it is: a simple bad trade period.... they fade away alone by their own weight, no need to waste time trying to make sense....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,449
  • Dec 16, 2016 3:38pm Dec 16, 2016 3:38pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Thank you for your view. It is valuable and appreciated as always. I agree with you . And also your previous post here about AUD. I try with an map here and in sell outlook for short and middle term has an close to 1000 pip range. Also I found so good picture posted in another thread here at FF today that I repost here . It is showing the current situation very visually {image} {image}
Been nice ride in NZDUSD also. now close just below flip level. Was able to get some positions close to the top and lifted of a little above flip level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDWeekly.png Size: 38 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,450
  • Dec 18, 2016 5:20am Dec 18, 2016 5:20am
This is a nice one, recommend to look it :

How The Economic Machine Works
Inserted Video
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,451
  • Dec 18, 2016 5:36am Dec 18, 2016 5:36am
Quoting Earleone
This is a nice one, recommend to look it : How The Economic Machine Works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=7s
Well condensed. Cycles as pattern expanded as monetary system passed into heavy credit/fiat system since 30s. Thus those cycles create stronger and more frequent financial crisis, someone pointed few weeks ago how Oil supply/crisis is self inflicting cycle, debt cycle works in same way. What all those cycles share is that at its peak they look the healtiest scheme ever, until it all starts to pass into the usual cycle role. FED and BOE were created for reason, before the cycles were harder to extract in value becouse system was more fragmented, once you globalize the system at the core you can push one key to create larger cycle that you can imagine, where the majority of population will not be able to connect the dots together and it will all look random on its face value. Its almost like as if Lord of the rings -one ring story was not fantasy fiction at all, more like reality represented trough different window.
  • #146,452
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:11pm Dec 18, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting Earleone
This is a nice one, recommend to look it : How The Economic Machine Works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=7s
Saw this a couple of years ago and found it very useful. Great resource for those who are willing to learn how "the machine" works by explaining basic concepts using uncomplicated language.
  • #146,453
  • Dec 18, 2016 2:36pm Dec 18, 2016 2:36pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} SPX and major indexes across the globe are stuck at the top. 2200-2250 zone has some decent resistance. Expecting a ST crash to 2080 and obviously dollar to give up gains!!
Any opinions on movements post the end of Jan?
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #146,454
  • Dec 18, 2016 3:11pm Dec 18, 2016 3:11pm
good blog. What do you think the rout of UST's, if it continue, will do to the USD? to US equities?

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/15/for...-never-before/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,455
  • Dec 18, 2016 4:01pm Dec 18, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting The Fool
good blog. What do you think the rout of UST's, if it continue, will do to the USD? to US equities? http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/15/for...-never-before/
This isnt cut and sold, its liquidation. Reverse process. It isnt EM bullish, its bearish. China is not selling its strongest assets to Mars, its selling to Earth and best developed countries, if its blocked along other EMs it has big problems. Its all about adoptation to standard that they want. Treasury chart should be inversed, it is heavily bearish to current flows especially to currencies of those markets. Liquidating assets and still selling to same market is like producing food at high cost, selling low end, and not having enough to feed your own market, it will end in hyper-end soon enough, one market is ahead for now, but it will happen soon in other too. Yields going up are no way bearish for US, they are hyper bullish as they serve massive capital squeeze from external alien world. USD is set to follow, equities a bit more mixes but i could be very wrong on that, flows could be very symetrica for equties becouse equation is quite complexl.

Posted asumption has big problem, tbills gain on upside is by no means bearish, its excalation of bullish impact symetrically oposite to many market participants, US markets and the way flows go for many many other reasons is bullish becouse of how fear vs no fear and safe vs no safe flows go. China and Japan changing flow of that is no go. Article has no deep grounding in actual flows at all. China has its main outcome selling assets to region that it wants to free from the most, trapped. Japan is just playing along. EMs have been selling low yieling assets for 2 years, did they flow above the water surface? Nope not at all. Its self inflicting cycle, becouse macro is leading the way, nearly impossible to make change. This is good example how randomness on its face value seems so, but really its just reaction to other aspects. Nothing is random.

Tbill up, EM cycle down, USD follow. EQ no idea.
  • #146,456
  • Dec 18, 2016 4:28pm Dec 18, 2016 4:28pm
Quoting janpec1000
This isnt cut and sold, its liquidation. .
OK, thanks. There are lots of ways to look at the recent bond rout and you can read various good comments below the article. China selling UST's is more a sign of dire conditions in China than it is a sign of any conditions in the US. However, if UST rates continue to rise, and I think they will, US equities will suffer, for a variety of reasons. The magic question (as always in trading) is: when will that effect occur?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,457
  • Dec 18, 2016 4:34pm Dec 18, 2016 4:34pm
Useless? Less uses?

Delete. Delete, Sir. In bin move. Fast.

Useless is useless. No time to waste!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #146,458
  • Dec 18, 2016 11:16pm Dec 18, 2016 11:16pm
short CNY

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonch.../#634085394fe8
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,459
  • Dec 19, 2016 3:48am Dec 19, 2016 3:48am
Hi Guys,

I would like to understand the concept of FA resistance or support levels and how to define them. I see alot of reference to them but can't find an explanation on how to define them.
Below you find a screenshot of the hourly EURNZD , the black vertical line is from right before the ECB meeting, in the mean time there have been no game changers for either the EUR or the NZD. Is it correct from me to assume that the bleu horizontal line is FA resistance since price couldn't breach it with the current Fundamentals?
Screenshot1.png

Below you find a daily chart from the EURNZD with the NZD GDP plotted for wednesday.
Is it correct from me to assume an that overshoot from GDP big enough to change rate expectations could be the only reason to breach the 1.5090 level FA resistance?
Screenshot2.png

Is this in short the concept of FA resistance and support?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 33 KB
  • #146,460
  • Dec 19, 2016 6:27am Dec 19, 2016 6:27am
Here we go again another round of short term up legs on EMs in USDX.
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