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  • #100,261
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:17pm Dec 15, 2016 8:17pm
Likely, a bounce from here. .7300- .7330 is a very supportive level.

The bounce might just be a small correction before the resumption of downtrend.
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  • #100,262
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:49pm Dec 15, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting thewriter30
I can't express how much I hate forex right know. Like my team ( the same the pope follows ..as a colour note) makes me angry and yet I love it. Why on earth did it go down like that is beyond my limited comprehension of the markets. Don't give me the Fed hikes Bullshit. My 2 year old.knew the hike was coming...and yet it was not priced in ? Fk I don't really understand a thing a about currency. Still it can go up as per technicals ...but on don't trust my analysis anymore
When a safe haven currency offers increasing yield where will money flow? This question is the right question to ask.

USDX has rallied almost 300 pips since the hike and reached 103.00 plus which was my target for this year as per my analysis, that I shared on here a while back when I was getting be-littled for having an upside down fib retracement tool.

Apart from fundamentals the AUD closed below the 200ma on the daily time frame. It then rallied back up to meet the ma and failed to even touch it. Sold off again. But in reality its because a very bullish USD driven by US monetary and now new fiscal policies based on Trump. The continuation of the bullish USD now lays in Trumps hands to walk his talk.

2 or 3 hikes next year will smash the AUD to mid .60's.

Forget about what the so-called pro analysts say. Most of them work for brokers and just want you to keep trading win or loose.. Its better to listen to Aussies that live here, there are a few on here that post regularly.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,263
  • Edited Dec 16, 2016 12:43am Dec 15, 2016 10:02pm | Edited Dec 16, 2016 12:43am
The first rate hike in a DECADE! a longish time (expected or not) .. was the moving force ...
Most of you sit back waiting for confirmation on a trade setup before initiating but can not understand the market as a whole doing it Re:rate hike ????
just couple it with the aussie triple AA rating teetering on a knife edge and makes for a perfect storm ...... IMO



cheers & trade safe
  • #100,264
  • Dec 16, 2016 12:06am Dec 16, 2016 12:06am
Quoting jamesph61
The first rate hike in a DECADE! (expected or not) .. was the moving force ... Most of you sit back waiting for confirmation on a trade setup before initiating but can not understand the market as a whole doing it Re:rate hike ???? just couple it with the aussie triple AA rating teetering on a knife edge and makes for a perfect storm ...... IMO cheers & trade safe
The first rate hike in a DECADE happened LAST December...
  • #100,265
  • Dec 16, 2016 12:44am Dec 16, 2016 12:44am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} The first rate hike in a DECADE happened LAST December...
cheers cc
  • #100,266
  • Dec 16, 2016 7:32am Dec 16, 2016 7:32am
Hi.

I don't Agree with this logic guys sorry. I mean you know how to trade KUDOS for that! my point is this does not help me at all

1) it is NOT the first hike in a decade.
2) it is only mere 0.25 %. This is chicken shit. In Argentina the Government offers 3% a year treasure notes in USDs which are safe enough and they do this every second Wednesday. 3% versus what..0.50% now?
3) AUD is not Mexican Peso . Some people talk as if Australia was Zambia. Australia is top 5! My money feels very safe there... The money in Argentinian banks..now THAT is a bet. In 2001 the government decided to get all USDs saved in banks from the whole population and transformed them in debt...many people killed themselves, others are still institutionalized.

it is very hard for me to understand what people call safe heavens and how a movement which was anticipated and a mere .25% meant so much

Keep getting rich guys!

Her
  • #100,267
  • Dec 16, 2016 7:35am Dec 16, 2016 7:35am
Quoting thewriter30
Hi. I don't Agree with this logic guys sorry. I mean you know how to trade KUDOS for that! my point is this does not help me at all 1) it is NOT the first hike in a decade. 2) it is only mere 0.25 %. This is chicken shit. In Argentina the Government offers 3% a year treasure notes in USDs which are safe enough and they do this every second Wednesday. 3% versus what..0.50% now? 3) AUD is not Mexican Peso . Some people talk as if Australia was Zambia. Australia is top 5! My money feels very safe there... The money in Argentinian banks..now...
well the fact you don't understand this move proves you are on the wrong side of the market and can only blame the rest of us lol
  • #100,268
  • Dec 16, 2016 8:20am Dec 16, 2016 8:20am
Quoting thewriter30
I can't express how much I hate forex right know.  Like my team ( the same the pope follows ..as a colour note) makes me angry and yet I love it.  Why on earth did it go down like that is beyond my limited comprehension of the markets. Don't give me the Fed hikes Bullshit. My 2 year old.knew the hike was coming...and yet it was not priced in ? Fk I don't really understand a thing a about currency.  Still it can go up as per technicals ...but on don't trust my analysis anymore
If you have not closed up shop for the year, now is the time. Hated + trading = loss. And forget about the "revenge"trade or the "I'm bigger than the market" trade. Most times, you will lose. Best to keep account alive for next year.

The USD is going up because... ? It is. No need to give post mortem on this pair. If you were long, you were wrong.

I got stopped into short this pair for some of the ride down, recovered most of my loss on the longs I put on too soon after the announcement (I also thought the rate hike was fully priced). Closed my shorts and now I have small longs on this pair as my trading system calls for testing the fib against the trend when 50% reached. Won't be long for long if it goes against me, will close and shutdown for the holidays if USD keeps ripping.
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Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,269
  • Dec 16, 2016 8:31am Dec 16, 2016 8:31am
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Quoting thewriter30
I can't express how much I hate forex right know. Like my team ( the same the pope follows ..as a colour note) makes me angry and yet I love it. Why on earth did it go down like that is beyond my limited comprehension of the markets. Don't give me the Fed hikes Bullshit. My 2 year old.knew the hike was coming...and yet it was not priced in ? Fk I don't really understand a thing a about currency. Still it can go up as per technicals ...but on don't trust my analysis anymore
If you have not closed up shop for the year, now is the time. Hated + trading = loss. And forget about the "revenge"trade or the "I'm bigger than the market" trade. Most times, you will lose. Best to keep account alive for next year.

The USD is going up because... ? It is. No need to give post mortem on this pair. If you were long, you were wrong.

I got stopped into short this pair for some of the ride down, recovered most of my loss on the longs I put on too soon after the announcement (I also thought the rate hike was fully priced). Closed my shorts and now I have small longs on this pair as my trading system calls for testing the fib against the trend when 50% reached. Won't be long for long if it goes against me, will close and shutdown for the holidays if USD keeps ripping.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,270
  • Dec 16, 2016 8:35am Dec 16, 2016 8:35am
I was wrong on the trade that rate hike was fully priced and also wrong on my prediction jfrancis would return when audusd went short again. I thought he would have been back by now
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,271
  • Edited 10:42am Dec 16, 2016 9:12am | Edited 10:42am
Think like a trader.....

Look at todays opening of the London session. They hiked the price all morning, then started selling off from about 11.30 knowing that New York would come online and drive prices down. It's what I think of as the 'Spring Board' trading effect caused by market makers 'priming' the market. We just need to recognise this behaviour and think like they do.


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On a seperate note......
Quoting Ultiforex
For what its worth, I use a month Elliot Wave as a general guide and anticipate price to go lower? (-7000) 29th Nov representing Point 4 on the graph. Of course there's still plenty of room for trade set ups in both directions I am currently in a sell taken yesterday.
Back on the 7th December I suggested price could eventually fall to 7000; I still think thats possible.
  • #100,272
  • Dec 16, 2016 1:45pm Dec 16, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
My second position the risk reward is ok see how it goes. {image}
Target achieved, with explanations through the thread. I hope this has helped some.
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  • #100,273
  • Dec 16, 2016 5:26pm Dec 16, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting thewriter30
Hi. I don't Agree with this logic guys sorry. I mean you know how to trade KUDOS for that! my point is this does not help me at all 1) it is NOT the first hike in a decade. 2) it is only mere 0.25 %. This is chicken shit. In Argentina the Government offers 3% a year treasure notes in USDs which are safe enough and they do this every second Wednesday. 3% versus what..0.50% now? 3) AUD is not Mexican Peso . Some people talk as if Australia was Zambia. Australia is top 5! My money feels very safe there... The money in Argentinian banks..now...
There was a time when the AUD was called the pacific Paso. The AUD is known as a commodity currency which is valued predominantly by the price and supply and demand of commodities. This means investing in AUD is a high risk investment and money can only be made when Australia sell it resources to other countries. Unlike the US which is or was driven by its own manufacturing and consumption. The US are considered leading in technology innovation entrepreneurship and hold 30% of the world wealth. Other safe haven counties include Japan and Switzerland.

Back in 2001 the aud went as low at .47 and it can happen again.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,274
  • Dec 16, 2016 5:57pm Dec 16, 2016 5:57pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} There was a time when the AUD was called the pacific Paso. The AUD is known as a commodity currency which is valued predominantly by the price and supply and demand of commodities. This means investing in AUD is a high risk investment and money can only be made when Australia sell it resources to other countries. Unlike the US which is or was driven by its own manufacturing and consumption. The US are considered leading in technology innovation entrepreneurship and hold 30% of the world wealth. Other safe haven counties include Japan and...
 
 
Appreciate all your time guys to answer me. Still cannot see clearly why 25 points triggered this sell off. I can see now from TA that the last barrier has been broken.. will it hold?
 
Cheers 
 
 
 
  • #100,275
  • Dec 16, 2016 6:21pm Dec 16, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote}   Appreciate all your time guys to answer me. Still cannot see clearly why 25 points triggered this sell off. I can see now from TA that the last barrier has been broken.. will it hold?  Cheers   Â
The kiwi fell with the aussie. These two currencies have been way over priced on the trade weighted index for some time. When both of the RBA and RBNZ Governors have been stressing for some time that the dollar is too high eventually they will use their power to get the currency where they want it. Particularly the RBA do have enough resources to push the AUD is anyway they want. The RBNZ have limitations but Wheeler in his last speech said "the nzd is still way too high however the tide is about to turn".

For this year trading has ended the market now will be very erratic and liquidity will be low. The market will move in unpredictable ways and is best not to trade untill mid January.

Looks like the aussie will end the year on a bearish note and down trend will continue next year, will be looking for more shorting entries, likewise on the Kiwi, and expect the euro to reach parity by March.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,276
  • Dec 16, 2016 9:19pm Dec 16, 2016 9:19pm
Weekend Analysis

.72- .73 is an area filled with congestion in the past. I will execute short orders on any relief rally, shorting at current level is not appealing and does not give a good RR.
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  • #100,277
  • Dec 17, 2016 4:51am Dec 17, 2016 4:51am
Quoting SkyrEk
Weekend Analysis .72- .73 is an area filled with congestion in the past. I will execute short orders on any relief rally, shorting at current level is not appealing and does not give a good RR. {image}
After a heavy couple of days of USD gains.. I believe trading right now is to risky and things are overpriced.

I have made a nice profit this year so now is time to read and learn....
  • #100,278
  • Dec 17, 2016 4:56am Dec 17, 2016 4:56am
Quoting thewriter30
I can't express how much I hate forex right know.  Like my team ( the same the pope follows ..as a colour note) makes me angry and yet I love it.  Why on earth did it go down like that is beyond my limited comprehension of the markets. Don't give me the Fed hikes Bullshit. My 2 year old.knew the hike was coming...and yet it was not priced in ? Fk I don't really understand a thing a about currency.  Still it can go up as per technicals ...but on don't trust my analysis anymore
When the righting is on the wall why not take advantage of it... we made 16K on that profit... I have always said that events / news are far more important then where graphs are heading.

- Even though we all knew the rate hike was comming why would the USD go up so high?
- When Interest rates go up... you be surprised how much people or fund managers pull out of the stock market as Yeilds decrease so currency becomes a +
- Rates have been so low for such a long time, this rate rise shows the world that " on paper" USA is going places.
  • #100,279
  • Dec 17, 2016 9:08pm Dec 17, 2016 9:08pm
Quoting jpcashflow
{quote} When the righting is on the wall why not take advantage of it... we made 16K on that profit... I have always said that events / news are far more important then where graphs are heading. - Even though we all knew the rate hike was comming why would the USD go up so high? - When Interest rates go up... you be surprised how much people or fund managers pull out of the stock market as Yeilds decrease so currency becomes a + - Rates have been so low for such a long time, this rate rise shows the world that " on paper" USA is going places.
 
Good on ya. That is what I make In a yeat
  • #100,280
  • Dec 19, 2016 8:29am Dec 19, 2016 8:29am
Quoting newbegger
{image} {quote} If you have not closed up shop for the year, now is the time. Hated + trading = loss. And forget about the "revenge"trade or the "I'm bigger than the market" trade. Most times, you will lose. Best to keep account alive for next year. The USD is going up because... ? It is. No need to give post mortem on this pair. If you were long, you were wrong. I got stopped into short this pair for some of the ride down, recovered most of my loss on the longs I put on too soon after the announcement (I also thought the rate hike was fully priced)....
Although it has not hit my stop yet, I manually closed out this position. It is a good support level but did not hold. That's it for me on shorting USD for swing trades until early Feb. Will only trade from the long side of USD, or not at all. This the season to buy dollas, fal la la la la, la la la la.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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