The Really Useless Thread

USDJPY Weekly Top Trend Line @ 121.2XX, Bottom @ 118.8XX



Monthly Trend Line @ 120.6XX and, Yearly Close with by Broker @ 120.1XX

Checked and "dont be a dick for a tick rule applies"

1.022x, 1.032x dates back to 2002 and before (1999). While they are obviously zones to track i still don understand how you determine the exact levels (i know on this TFs it's not important the level itself at the tick but i would like to understand why, since you have to choose one, it is eg 1.022x and not 1.021x or 1.023x)

Target timing based only on number of sessions available untile end of month?

Slightly bullis day why? I can see NY stopped for fisrt time in last sessions to push price down and gained back 1.041x starting to build a possible floor, is there something else?

Some micro strenght on EUR/gold possibly comming, getting some longs in. Nice squeeze on EA, that one is priority.

Sisse I think you should be starting the 2nd level of iteration in play .... Just a thought

A calm European session with Equities finding foot as expected since the FED initial flow was settle. Expecting US to follow though in the same line and kill the day after the opening range.... until then...

sisse

You are trying to interpret every single comment I make as algorithmic trading machine and what it make it even more confusing is that you are mixing up and trying to see micro trades/flows in the Euro in any market comment we discuss....

Re-balancing portfolios just mean that. Year is about to end. We got all news and report for the year most market participants will revaluate their outlooks and portfolios and start wrapping up the year.

What it has to do with Euro moving north, or south in the next few sessions? how or who on earth will know what Fund XYZ or Corporation ABC or Trader PQR will do with their Euro holdings in the next couple of hours? ....

Basically I didn't answer because your question was irrelevant and out of scope. The only point is we cleared the FED, markets will start closing the year. PERIOD !!!. no more no less...

*** VERY LONG POST ALERT ....

Does it matter? ... Don't get me wrong, I'm not implying having sound TA levels is not important but you are missing the most important part of the point.

--> We discussed for a while early in the year but this bit got lost under the other points (there maybe some early backpost related to 'trading to the tick'). One of the most important points I always make is: The day you stop trying to trade to the tick is the day your trading will exponentially improve in consistency.

--> Thats one of the worst myths across these boards and it comes from over-leverage, undercapitalisation and scare money that create that fake fantasy of 'I will just risk 5 ticks just in case for a potential 100 ticks ride' ...you know how it ends with 99% of trader like that in the medium term....Sure there are some unique natural geniuses that prolly can make it consistently (I haven't meet one myself) but those will be the exception that confirm the rule rather than the norm.

--> Back to your question. If you are sharp enough and have been reading for a while these thread you will spot that the main levels for decision making despite the TA on how to spot them are SELDOM if EVER at the ultimate extremes. Why? Because only suckers (and I am being very strong here] will take their decisions at the ultimate extreme.

--> I tried many times in previous discussion with @IMARICH1 and other to point that a good general rule is to: ENTER slow and EXIT fast.

--> You want your entry area level to get overshoot or undershoot before you enter !!!!. Thats a good signal. You want the laggers to go overboard at the 'ultimate' highs or lows, you want to get them in the way back as they will propel the initial momentum to reduce your drawdown when they get trap in the way down (obviously your direction has to be right ...)

Want my 2 cents.

--> If your entry areas are in the very edge you are getting too close to the sucker's side of the move. Sit down and let them go overboard (in simple moves and basic short term ranges there is no rocket science to know what most traders are tracking).

--> A random example but try it live as you will see it with your own eyes is a simple fib retracement (you can use any common indicator) in a decent short term range you will see the soft retail crowd jumping blindly in a 50% (or whatever) despite the actual direction of the market (they just see 50% ok lets jump i, don't care machine gun approach).

--> The ultimate supposdly 'low' in this example case you know exactly where it is for them. You don't care the exact level neither trading it to the tick so its 1.99452222 or 1.99451111 it its irrelevant for trading . While most newcomers (and actually the majority of posters around FF for example) will get exited when somebody calls or if they get themselves that ultimate to the tick entry ...the money is not there.

--> You want to stand out of the extremes. Let the iliquid extremes for the suckers. They most of the time will get blown up and down in thin markets while you patiently wait for your entry that should be outside that ultimate tick range. Let them get trapped (if you eyeballing entry is too close to, try to evaluate where is the 'point of no return price' wise even if (and you will) lost the initial dozen (or more depending on the Tfs move) ticks. Who cares !!! You are in control of your risk not a squiggly line or indicator.

--> Point being, when you say 1.022x or 1x or 3x do you really think it will change anything in my trading view if price overshoot to 1.015x for a couple of minutes in a spike or if the ultimate low is 1.02399 or 1.02199. That TA area is a target level that has enough room for EXIT fast and early enough before the laggers and crowds start calling bottoms or adding late shorts....you get the point ...

--> Look just check [you can check any] the last live case in the Euro last week with ECB. We were tracking the highs of the 1.07xx handle for after the ECB confirmation to enter in the way back to the lows 1.07xx handle.

1. Some jumped the gun too early before the ECB and got spanked out in the spike, some others were calling reversal and the moon (and got hammered and very frustrated later) while some of us were happily waiting, 'knowing' that the ultimate high could extend as high as the 1,083x area and wanted that overshoot to trap all soft hands in the wrong side if ECB matched expectations.

1. We cleared 1.073x and some were pretty much celebrating the new trend to 1.11xx and even 1.2x. ECB matched expectations and we spiked (and very deep) in a few second to the very highs of the 1.08xx handle. For some us that was a exactly what we were looking at. I don't care calling the top 1.088x or enter around there, the money, my money, my risk was to ride 1.07xx -> 1.03xx and prolly below if things work out perfectly with a minimum drawdown.

Did I care 1.088x or 1.087x or 6x or 5x ... not at all thats a sucker game in thin markets for trading ...so try to read those levels for what they are and represent not as the ultimate tick entry or exit in the Euro....

I hope it helps

sisse

Good lessons in there. (I've noticed many good lessons are often preceded by the "long post alert").
Overleverage is in my opinion the mother of many bad habits and is the one main reason for trying to pick a perfect level to the tick. Ones mind, when sizing up a potential trade, is doing lots of math in the subconscious background. "If my stop is wide enough to put a sensible entry on, my return will be r. Decent, but not by get rich quick standards. But if it's tight enough because I nail precisely the area to enter within a tick or 10, my return will be r X 20!, I can load in triple heavy right there and double my account in one move! Same risk as the sensible entry with the sensible stop, huge return compared."
Even with direction right, accounts die this way by 1000 cuts stop after stop. I am convinced I would have no capital left had I continued to do it like that.

Btw not suggesting anyone here has those habits. I just know I did.

Saw this chart and found it interesting. Thought I'd share:

Got it many pages back: 1/2 to 2/3 swing range has become my basic target, everything plus I take as a gift and i'm learning it comes trough sell & reload (risk & reward management)

Since you were talking TA wise and giving four decimals target i tought there was some more advanced TA tips to share.

Anyway topic closed, you gave me final clarification and confirmation: thanks for the lenghty answer and the time you dedicated once again.

Ha ha, as @Fool would say ...just BTFD!!

Yup. If the trend continues we will need to track the 5m chart to trade the news next year.

Gold stoped on BE, EA was priority nice squeeze, closed 30% position, holding the rest to target or BE.

hahahahhahahaha

Something legit was brewing in the background dude! Guess the brewmaster fucked up.

China has seized an unmanned, underwater US navy vehicle inside off international waters in the South China Sea;

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=623666

When some people where talking about 1.10 and 1.13 they were talking in overconfidence which only time can verify and was fully verified ... What I really want to say in this game everyone is somewhere right or wrong but overconfidence will definitely ruin your reputation one way or the other ...
A request Next time don't come with direct challenge ... Discussion is the best policy rather than arguments or challenge

Wow, The useless thread, but still it has more than 80,000 posts. It is quite incredible.

Can he afford stop around 1.000 area for longs? Since that was such a random guess at everyones risk (aparently you can only be direct bear with SL on 1.1) control and approach, lets make some aswell. Trader judging everyones market approach from their own view applying their own strategy to create credibility around other trader who is using completly different approach most likely. Tunnel vision par excellence. What helps by far the most to get rid of that is to study strategies of consistently profitable traders, quant stripping data, and realizing that there are hundreds of ways to skin a cat, only then that vision gets a bit broader.

How about 1.14 from here? I'll surely have fun @ everyone later...

With the current context, I don't think so! There is a high risk with Italian Banks (at least two banks) that might send EURUSD to 1.02 early next week.