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AUD/USD

  • #100,241
  • Edited 4:26am Dec 13, 2016 2:22am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting ell3
{quote} Thats why I miss 2014-2015. There was always a clear downtrend! This year it's been a lot of ups and downs without clear market conviction on either side. No trading plan suitable for more than perhaps a week.
I miss it too. I made a lot of money during that period. These days It's all struggle and anyone's guess.
  • #100,242
  • Dec 13, 2016 2:34am Dec 13, 2016 2:34am
Quoting primaprima
{quote} What the reason that you think the price will go uo to that level ? Esspecialy if the FED rising the rate
Will be high volatility on fed meeting and I suspect price to spike up then straight back down
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,243
  • Dec 14, 2016 6:08am Dec 14, 2016 6:08am
Watch how the H&S formation will finish by the end of the day and the fed will trigger the downward move
  • #100,244
  • Dec 14, 2016 6:12am Dec 14, 2016 6:12am
Quoting Windstrown
Watch how the H&S formation will finish by the end of the day and the fed will trigger the downward move
I've already entered a short position --- please be right!
  • #100,245
  • Dec 14, 2016 6:21am Dec 14, 2016 6:21am
Quoting elvenq
{quote} I've already entered a short position --- please be right!
I'm also short following the correction of oil + the event of today but its a short term thing for me
  • #100,246
  • Dec 14, 2016 6:38am Dec 14, 2016 6:38am
Invalid man. be careful im out
  • #100,247
  • Dec 14, 2016 6:39am Dec 14, 2016 6:39am
Quoting hathor
above 0.75290 to form a daily/weekly sell signal imho (The monthly is already sell since 2016 April - 0.76xxx). Time will tell.
Sooner or later... ^^
f(z)=z2+c
  • #100,249
  • Dec 14, 2016 10:18am Dec 14, 2016 10:18am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Sooner or later... ^^
Well the dice are well and truly loaded now........ not long to wait.

The market makers have pulled the string taught.....
  • #100,250
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:31pm Dec 14, 2016 2:31pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
Best to wait, not speculate. A clear trend will be established eliminating guess work.
U.S. Cash rate to increase , direction clearly down, no guess work, no speculation, trade complete .
  • #100,251
  • Dec 14, 2016 3:00pm Dec 14, 2016 3:00pm
Last major event of 2016 is over. lets see whats next for this pair. Always a good practise to close out positons b4 a major event news release
  • #100,252
  • Edited 3:47pm Dec 14, 2016 3:10pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting SkyrEk
Last major event of 2016 is over. lets see whats next for this pair. Always a good practise to close out positons b4 a major event news release
This is a positional play ,use the expectation before the event to make most your money. The event itself can produce the opposite effect.
  • #100,253
  • Dec 14, 2016 8:15pm Dec 14, 2016 8:15pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} This is a positional play ,use the expectation before the event to make most your money. The event itself can produce the opposite effect.
That's good if it works for you. For myself, after going through numerous NFP and major risk events, i had learnt not to be in any open positions or as minimal exposure in the markets as the outcome is unknown. Some will say that the hike was expected and even priced in, but USD was still bought strongly into after the hike.

Now i will be waiting for dollar bulls to take profit and close out their positions.
  • #100,254
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:13am Dec 15, 2016 5:13am
My prediction was correct that the AUD would get smashed...

Made a big profit today .... My wife is a bit happy today she may even let me go out for a beer this week with my mates lol.
  • #100,255
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:35pm Dec 15, 2016 5:35pm
My second position the risk reward is ok see how it goes.
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  • #100,256
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:53pm Dec 15, 2016 5:53pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
My second position the risk reward is ok see how it goes. {image}
Made mine on the Kiwi. Smaller positions though but most likely smaller account
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,257
  • Dec 15, 2016 6:14pm Dec 15, 2016 6:14pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Made mine on the Kiwi. Smaller positions though but most likely smaller account {image}
Good see a local town boy who knows how to trade. Beach looks good today
  • #100,258
  • Dec 15, 2016 7:05pm Dec 15, 2016 7:05pm
I can't express how much I hate forex right know.  Like my team ( the same the pope follows ..as a colour note) makes me angry and yet I love it.
 
Why on earth did it go down like that is beyond my limited comprehension of the markets. 
Don't give me the Fed hikes Bullshit. My 2 year old.knew the hike was coming...and yet it was not priced in ? Fk I don't really understand a thing a about currency. 
 
Still it can go up as per technicals ...but on don't trust my analysis anymore
  • #100,259
  • Dec 15, 2016 7:43pm Dec 15, 2016 7:43pm
Quoting thewriter30
I can't express how much I hate forex right know. Like my team ( the same the pope follows ..as a colour note) makes me angry and yet I love it. Why on earth did it go down like that is beyond my limited comprehension of the markets. Don't give me the Fed hikes Bullshit. My 2 year old.knew the hike was coming...and yet it was not priced in ? Fk I don't really understand a thing a about currency. Still it can go up as per technicals ...but on don't trust my analysis anymore
You're right, it wasn't about the rate hike, it was about the potential for future rate hikes based on an economy that is supposedly recovering nicely (of course anyone that lives here in the states should know the recovery is all smoke and mirrors)

In addition, the potential for Trump stimulus from spending on infrastructure etc, as well as tax cuts theoretically would lead to more business/consumer spending, hence higher inflation, thus more rate hikes.

All speculation of course but certainly the perception is leading the way for this continued dollar euphoria.

Imo, I would expect some end of the year profit taking. In addition I wouldn't expect any rate changes in the next 2-3 months from the Fed, RBA or RBNZ. Heading into the new year, I think there is the potential for the Aussie and Kiwi to recover a few hundred pips
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,260
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:13pm Dec 15, 2016 8:13pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} You're right, it wasn't about the rate hike, it was about the potential for future rate hikes based on an economy that is supposedly recovering nicely (of course anyone that lives here in the states should know the recovery is all smoke and mirrors) In addition, the potential for Trump stimulus from spending on infrastructure etc, as well as tax cuts theoretically would lead to more business/consumer spending, hence higher inflation, thus more rate hikes. All speculation of course but certainly the perception is leading the way for this...
The expected U.S. Rate hike cycle and an unpredictable Us president who likes money coming into America does not work well for long long term carry trades. When combined with the Technicals I'm not surprised at all
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