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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,101
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:04am Dec 15, 2016 8:04am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, Where would you put the balancing area in this intermediate-term down-move....? Is it the area I indicated with the red triangle (my pref) or the green dotted-line? Thanks! {image}
Use a bigger timeframe to define balancing zones. To find a balance you need at least 2 benchmark bars in opposite direction: the first 2 bars of this kind define the balance. Currently we have 3 overlapping balances on daily timeframe.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-12-15_15-00-03_DAILY BALANCES.png Size: 78 KB
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,102
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:07am Dec 15, 2016 8:07am
Now, note that A low is weak at exact ref as B low is weak at half back. But let's see where pit is going to open and how it will react to the new possible gap downside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,103
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:31am Dec 15, 2016 8:31am
Quoting Lock
13:37 +1GMT Now, preUS could open below yesterday pit low at 25293. If it will remain below this level, upcoming pit will open with a new gap downside. Then the current little double pass pit gap at 25253-25293 will become a triple pass gap: carry this info forward in the case.

Watch out we are very close to it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,104
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:34am Dec 15, 2016 8:34am
But also remember that we have a new gap downside: if not retraced quickly, go with it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,105
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:08am Dec 15, 2016 9:08am
Quoting Lock
Now, note that A low is weak at exact ref as B low is weak at half back. But let's see where pit is going to open and how it will react to the new possible gap downside.
Weak B low taken out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,106
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:11am Dec 15, 2016 9:11am
for now we saw a liquidation of preUS.
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  • #2,107
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:19am Dec 15, 2016 9:19am
Quoting Lock
Now, note that A low is weak at exact ref as B low is weak at half back. But let's see where pit is going to open and how it will react to the new possible gap downside.
Also preUS period A low at 24437 (major weekly reference TAG) has been taken out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,108
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:23am Dec 15, 2016 9:23am
2428 is the half back of the entire move up from 10.25
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,109
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:36am Dec 15, 2016 9:36am
So, very elongated initial balance and profile: watch out. Then if continuation, remember that if weekly balance low is at 23118, the "pit" weekly balance low is at 23623 and is the pit low of 11.23.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,110
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:40am Dec 15, 2016 9:40am
main composite poc tagged.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,111
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:54am Dec 15, 2016 9:54am
16:53 +1GMT
In any case if we remain around here untill tonight I think Tokyo will test its poor low from 11.29 at 23874.
Clearly it will be different in case of very strong correction upside. But I also think that current composite poc could attract price unless bigger timeframes will step in.

Clearly B period has a very great number of single pips and I think that it clearly needs a correction before or after.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,112
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:59am Dec 15, 2016 9:59am
A test of the lower main trend line is also possible. Note current C low at round 2400 previously tagged by a GB session (11.29): now it is very weak.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,113
  • Dec 15, 2016 10:18am Dec 15, 2016 10:18am
17:18+1GMT
Note D period high 1 single pip below early morning low (B period low 2422): carry this info forward.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,114
  • Dec 15, 2016 10:19am Dec 15, 2016 10:19am
price action glued at main composite poc as expected in case of a market ruled by weak hands.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,115
  • Dec 15, 2016 10:28am Dec 15, 2016 10:28am
D inside C
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,116
  • Dec 15, 2016 10:41am Dec 15, 2016 10:41am
Quoting Lock
16:53 +1GMT In any case if we remain around here untill tonight I think Tokyo will test its poor low from 11.29 at 23874. Clearly it will be different in case of very strong correction upside. But I also think that current composite poc could attract price unless bigger timeframes will step in. Clearly B period has a very great number of single pips and I think that it clearly needs a correction before or after.
Already tested by current pit. Cluster of lows below it tested too.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,117
  • Dec 15, 2016 10:42am Dec 15, 2016 10:42am
Quoting Lock
A test of the lower main trend line is also possible. Note current C low at round 2400 previously tagged by a GB session (11.29): now it is very weak.
Major trend line testing now. 2400 obviously taken out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,118
  • Dec 15, 2016 10:49am Dec 15, 2016 10:49am
17:49+1GMT
Well. I'm off. As written it could also reach the pit weekly balance low at 23623 or maybe even the GB weekly balance low 23118 (the weekly balance low valid for all the sessions) But right now I see a D high 1 pip below the early morning low at 2422, huge minus development left by B period above it and the current test of the major trend line upside: all these factors plus my tiredness force me out. See you tomorro and have a nice continuation. Watch out anyway!
Best L.

PS: we are in the last period of London.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,119
  • Edited 1:38am Dec 16, 2016 1:24am | Edited 1:38am
16/12/16 FRIDAY 08:24+1GMT (edited untill 08:38)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

About yesterday late afternoon, fortunatly I was correct:

Quoting Lock
17:49+1GMT Well. I'm off. As written it could also reach the pit weekly balance low at 23623 or maybe even the GB weekly balance low 23118 (the weekly balance low valid for all the sessions) But right now I see a D high 1 pip below the early morning low at 2422, huge minus development left by B period above it and the current test of the major trend line upside: all these factors plus my tiredness force me out. See you tomorro and have a nice continuation. Watch out anyway! Best L. PS: we are in...
After that pit session closed a couple of pips below major composite poc at 2417. Then Tokyo liquidate some, testing its own old poor low at 23874 , as expected and announced before:
Quoting Lock
16:53 +1GMT In any case if we remain around here untill tonight I think Tokyo will test its poor low from 11.29 at 23874. Clearly it will be different in case of very strong correction upside. But I also think that current composite poc could attract price unless bigger timeframes will step in. Clearly B period has a very great number of single pips and I think that it clearly needs a correction before or after.
After the test below this level it started a slow short covering (very weak because supported upon a very precise trend line) and we are currently still below yesterday GB session low at 24537: current lowest low for December GB. If we will remain below this level we will have a gap downside: so in this case gap rules will apply as yesterday for pit session.

Our most important level for upcoming GB session are:

  1. current composite poc at 2417.

above current composite poc

  1. 2428 that is the half back of the entire move up from the low of 10.25.
  2. 24437 is the weekly balance high (it is the first week after the major breakdown of week10.02
  3. yesterday GB low at 24537.
  4. spike base (the base of the yesterday GB testing spike downside) at 25116 that coincides with the 25122 GB weekly breakeven.

below current composite poc

  1. the GB spike up base form 11.23 at 2404.
  2. 23886 yesterday GB close: current lowest GB close for December
  3. the GB spike up base from 11.21 at 2350: even though it is a very old ref it is right below the major trend line so in case of test of it could serve as initial support.
  4. 23315 weekly balance high: this is the second week in balance after the major break of week10.02
  5. 23118 the weekly balance low for GB.

I underligned the references that I consider most important for upcoming GB.

Note that we left above a huge amount of weaknesses, so in case of short covering read previous reports to have at least an idea of them.

Finally USDX has now a good pit high, at least on the daily timeframe: I do not study it on sessions so I do not know if it has a good high there) And this fact could eventually lead to a correction of the incredible 5 pass GB gap around 100.35 level. Even tough the GB session is not so important for USDX as for cable obviously.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,120
  • Dec 16, 2016 1:45am Dec 16, 2016 1:45am
Thanks for sharing your knowledge lock. Subscribed!
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
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