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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,081
  • Dec 15, 2016 1:37am Dec 15, 2016 1:37am
Quoting Zaak
thanks for sharing your encyclopedic knowledge LocK.
Thank you, you're welcome: but remember that you've better to thank Mr. Dalton because most of what I know comes from his teachings.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,082
  • Edited 1:59am Dec 15, 2016 1:49am | Edited 1:59am
16/12/15 08:49+1GMT (edited untill 08:58)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday we saw a big liquidation of the entire daily bracket. Tonight Tokyo also tested the weekly breakeven at 25122 (tagging it and establishing there also a poor low, also previously tagged by Sydney low). We announced the importance of the weekly breakeven well in advance. Tokyo also tested its own lowest close for the month at 25304 that will remain an important reference untill the end of the second GB bar of today (the today Tokyo close)

The pit session liquidation removed most of the weaknesses downside (but do not tested yest the weekly breakeven) and left above a new poor high at 27224, the old weak high at 27274 and 3 minus development (single pip pass on 30 min period).
Pit session didn't fill the last portion of the double pass gap down to 25255: so carry this info forward.

This move was also followed by a big rally on USDX in order to establish a good "all time" high above the weak one we had before (also announced well in advance and numerous times as one of the 2 possibilities we considered as needed for USDX).
Note that we still have a 5 pass GB gap at 100.35 level: remember this on USDX if you start to see a consistent liquidation.


Current price location let us imagine a huge GB gap downside for upcoming GB session: but watch out because we are before big news and a correction is also possible.
Lowest GB for December is currently at 25063.

Main closest major composite pocs are, above at 2587 while below at 2417.

A note about yesterday final portion of pit session.

Quoting Lock
{quote} Here we are with a majestic shake out. ... Plus the lower upside gap is still in place. Now: let's see if pit will able to accept price below current GB low (overnigh low) or not. If not: all the way back upside. If acceptation below GB low we could have continuation downside in orde to take fill the gap. And maybe to reach the other poor low at 25517 and the double pass gap below it.
Quoting Lock
{quote} GB low is important also because it coincides with the monthly pit breakout at 26345. So it is a very important go/no go level for pit session because it could lead to a rejection or an acceptation of the monthly breakeven. Generally we considered 2673 as the monthly breakeven because it is a general reference for all the session while 26345 is only for pit participants.
When I was writing this K period didn't tested yet the 26345 pit monthly breakeven: when it finally made it, it didn't find anything above it and close below it giving acceptation to the downside continuation.
So, even if the entire liquidation was not so affordable at the top of it, because of the so fast action involved in it, when you eventually saw rejection above the monthly pit breakeven and the relative acceptation below it made by K period you had a wonderfull opportunity to place a short. Specially considering that we still have things to do downside. And this is exactly what happened. So: clap clap clap.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,083
  • Dec 15, 2016 2:20am Dec 15, 2016 2:20am
Quoting Lock
16/12/15 08:49+1GMT (edited untill 08:58) EARLY MORNING REPORT ... Tokyo also tested its own lowest close for the month at 25304 that will remain an important reference untill the end of the second GB bar of today (the today Tokyo close) ....
09:20+1GMT
Note price up and down this level: remember also that lowest low for December Tokyo is at 25083 right above lowest low of GB at 25063.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,084
  • Dec 15, 2016 2:33am Dec 15, 2016 2:33am
09:33+1GMT
Note 25122 weekly breakeven tagged at the pip... Automatic weak longs at that level.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,085
  • Dec 15, 2016 2:35am Dec 15, 2016 2:35am
Remember that overnight lows and highs are among the most important spot references for daily traders. In this case w also have a bigger reference as a weekly one, so it could be slightly different. But in any case any exact reference is not a ref used by major timeframes.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,086
  • Dec 15, 2016 2:44am Dec 15, 2016 2:44am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 09:20+1GMT Note price up and down this level: remember also that lowest low for December Tokyo is at 25083 right above lowest low of GB at 25063.
An other perfect tag.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,087
  • Dec 15, 2016 2:46am Dec 15, 2016 2:46am
Now, for any meaningfull continuation downside we need acceptation at least below overnight low. So watch out if not.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,088
  • Dec 15, 2016 3:01am Dec 15, 2016 3:01am
Quoting Lock
Now, for any meaningfull continuation downside we need acceptation at least below overnight low. So watch out if not.

As you see.. Now note Tokyo close 2 pips above its today unchanged (GB open)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,089
  • Dec 15, 2016 3:25am Dec 15, 2016 3:25am
C inside B for now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,090
  • Dec 15, 2016 3:49am Dec 15, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Lock
C inside B for now.
10:51+1GMT
D inside C inside B for now. B low weak at lowest GB dec low 25063, C low at weekly breakeven 25122 (and also today Tokyo/overnight low). Tokyo poor high at 2567. But huge gap downside as current resistance.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,091
  • Dec 15, 2016 3:58am Dec 15, 2016 3:58am
Balance rules applies here. Go with the break if any and monitor for continuation. Then if fails in the first direction, natural initial target opposite side of balance. Do not try to be anticipatory to the bpossible break. And do not place your position near current GB poc because we are in a rotational environment.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,092
  • Dec 15, 2016 4:48am Dec 15, 2016 4:48am
extraordinary weak upper trend line. Carry this info forward.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,093
  • Dec 15, 2016 4:53am Dec 15, 2016 4:53am
Quoting Lock
extraordinary weak upper trend line. Carry this info forward.
look at m30 chart: all m30 periods from Tokyo high tagging the same descending trend line.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,094
  • Dec 15, 2016 5:23am Dec 15, 2016 5:23am
12:23+1GMT
Again, F inside E: G attempted above its high, failed and here the move to the opposite side of F in order to correct the weak B, C and E lows..
Note G low weak at round 2500.

Also note that before to break price tested above the last 2 periods clustering below the descending m30 trend line.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,095
  • Dec 15, 2016 6:05am Dec 15, 2016 6:05am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Thank you, you're welcome: but remember that you've better to thank Mr. Dalton because most of what I know comes from his teachings.
I'm reading and watching him too and CBT.
  • #2,096
  • Dec 15, 2016 6:37am Dec 15, 2016 6:37am
13:37 +1GMT
Now, preUS could open below yesterday pit low at 25293. If it will remain below this level, upcoming pit will open with a new gap downside. Then the current little double pass pit gap at 25253-25293 will become a triple pass gap: carry this info forward in the case.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,097
  • Dec 15, 2016 6:41am Dec 15, 2016 6:41am
If pit will manage to accept price below the weekly breakeven at 25122 remember that we have the possibility to go to the opposite side of balance week 11.20 at 23118.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,098
  • Dec 15, 2016 7:06am Dec 15, 2016 7:06am
24437 is the 10.09 weekly balance top: important ref.

The last 6 weeks developed above this level: or to be more precise the first 3 up and downs it, the last 3 above it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,099
  • Dec 15, 2016 7:15am Dec 15, 2016 7:15am
Quoting Lock
24437 is the 10.09 weekly balance top: important ref. The last 6 weeks developed above this level: or to be more precise the first 3 up and downs it, the last 3 above it.
Note the automatic reaction just 1 pip above it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,100
  • Dec 15, 2016 7:40am Dec 15, 2016 7:40am
Hi Lock,

Where would you put the balancing area in this intermediate-term down-move....? Is it the area I indicated with the red triangle (my pref) or the green dotted-line?

Thanks!
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