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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,341
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:46pm Dec 14, 2016 12:46pm
For those interested. Try to evaluate your answer with your current trades or the next set of trades you will take and the review after the news. For those just tracking or trying to follow the move.

Try to answer wih the information in the previous post what will make a direct or a zigzag. Evaluate how it panned out after. If you crack thia, you will have a dramatic impact in your trading consistency and you will obviously owe me a beer or two.

All set and ready here. Trading time. Remember we have 3 parts today and a mid term leg on top. Eyes on treasuries, dollar and equities...

GL all holding positions or aiming to new ones....

We'll discuss details later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,342
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:55pm Dec 14, 2016 12:55pm
Get set go ... All the best guys
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,343
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:00pm Dec 14, 2016 1:00pm
It's unpredicatabke mess. Inflation up and retail Down.

if inline w hawkish expectations then flows to .046x

if inline and neutral then flows to .083x
  • #146,344
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:11pm Dec 14, 2016 1:11pm
Hikes inline. Dots overshoot. Macro hawkish at first glance. 2 of the O O done. Now for the details...

Huge moves on the making in the Bond markets.....keep a close eye in tje next hour or so. Lotsof outlook coming..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,345
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:14pm Dec 14, 2016 1:14pm
Fed now expects 3 hikes in 2017 .
More to come in the press conference , Yellen could be as dovish as she would like to be as usual in such case buy the dip applies for USD .
Overall , hawkish outlook .
euro losing the flip [1.058x] for the roll would set the move in full motion .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,346
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:17pm Dec 14, 2016 1:17pm
I had .056x for Flip. We are fighting for the this area.
  • #146,347
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:19pm Dec 14, 2016 1:19pm
Knee jerk has us yields up 10yr even, gold down, stocks starting to feel it. 10 min til conference. O,O,?
  • #146,348
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:22pm Dec 14, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting goosebone
Knee jerk has us yields up, gold down, stocks starting to feel it. 10 min til conference. O,O,?
O for the hike headline 25bp check

O for the the projections and statement hawkish outlook 3 hikes vs 2 in 2017 projections check

O wait for yellen ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,349
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:22pm Dec 14, 2016 1:22pm
Inserted Video
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,350
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:24pm Dec 14, 2016 1:24pm
Quoting sisse
Hikes inline. Dots overshoot. Macro hawkish at first glance. 2 of the O O done. Now for the details... Huge moves on the making in the Bond markets.....keep a close eye in tje next hour or so. Lotsof outlook coming.. sisse
not sure whats baked in or not.. close to support if its baked in, a shot at 1.108 is normal chart wise even with a break in the low at 1.046x.. any more than that is w/o a broken low. fundi wise this is out of line, chart wise 1.2 is still in demand. sometime after that i would expect a new deep LL..

not much bang atm..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #146,351
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:26pm Dec 14, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} O for the hike headline 25bp check O for the the projections and statement hawkish outlook 3 hikes vs 2 in 2017 projections check O wait for yellen ...
Exactly.

O,O,?
  • #146,352
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:28pm Dec 14, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting Goldflake
https://youtu.be/eMmdpP9SaAo
The background music before the conference is much appreciated lol
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,353
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:29pm Dec 14, 2016 1:29pm
Quoting sisse
Hikes inline. Dots overshoot. Macro hawkish at first glance. 2 of the O O done. Now for the details... Huge moves on the making in the Bond markets.....keep a close eye in tje next hour or so. Lotsof outlook coming.. sisse
1.108 would destroy a bunch of retailers, so would a drop after 1.108. forex is a bitch at times.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #146,354
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:40pm Dec 14, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.108 would destroy a bunch of retailers, so would a drop after 1.108. forex is a bitch at times.
a short squeeze to 1.087x doesn't count in your view !!

Quoting hoom
{quote} O for the hike headline 25bp check O for the the projections and statement hawkish outlook 3 hikes vs 2 in 2017 projections check O wait for yellen ...

  1. Fed expect inflation to rise to 2% over next couple of years
  2. Fed officials see moderate growth in next few years
  3. Inflation expectations remain reasonably low
  4. We expect jobs conditions will improve somewhat further
  5. Broader measures of labor market slack have moved lower
  6. "Overall, these economic projects are very similar to the ones made in September"
  7. Fed funds rate is only modestly below neutral rate

Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,355
  • Edited 2:00pm Dec 14, 2016 1:46pm | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting The Fool
No better chance left this year to shake down the crowded bull trade and set up a good entry for the Santa rally. Total wishful thinking but I am looking for a 30-50 pt pullback in /es into next week.
little change in equities, FOMC mostly priced in I guess unless there be a delayed reaction, bull or bear.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,356
  • Dec 14, 2016 1:47pm Dec 14, 2016 1:47pm
Drama over or is there something to come .. like an earthquake (aftersho ks) ... Big players graved there buy and sell buttons ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,357
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:00pm Dec 14, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting sisse
Hikes inline. Dots overshoot. Macro hawkish at first glance. 2 of the O O done. Now for the details... Huge moves on the making in the Bond markets.....keep a close eye in tje next hour or so. Lotsof outlook coming.. sisse
Bonds already on head move on EMs, on currency board setting some solid double bottoms and opening possible swipes next days with breaks. Not sure what to think about Bunds. Tbills and 10y inline to projections.
Dots overshoot should be most important for large macro flows on EMs, on US equities i see a bit mixed view, anyone with clear view for equities feel free to add deeper view.
  • #146,358
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:20pm Dec 14, 2016 2:20pm
Quoting The Fool
little change in equities, FOMC mostly priced in I guess unless there be a delayed reaction, bull or bear.....
better....spoos 20 down, if we can get selling into the close and follow thru selling tomorrow it will be the same as last December, then we'll see about a btfd for Santa
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,359
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:35pm Dec 14, 2016 2:35pm
watching eu 505 now. Did I mention I hate uvxy's guts?
  • #146,360
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:52pm Dec 14, 2016 2:52pm
Quoting goosebone
Did I mention I hate uvxy's guts?
yes it's a real dogturd, strictly for options spread trading, and in that vein strickly for trapping major volatility events. I set up a bunch of UVXY call spreads for the FOMC/Electoral College combo, this week and next.....will likely lose money on all of those unless we get a multi-day dip. Anyway, yes: never buy UVXY or VXX shares.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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