The Really Useless Thread | Page 7317 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,321
  • Dec 14, 2016 11:51am Dec 14, 2016 11:51am
Quoting sisse
We don't have much time, lets do this as quickly as possible. +++ Building a map for the FED News Flow +++ There is one clear level that is consensus in all previous post and also agree with it. That level is 1.097x. The second level repeated a few times is 1.046x. Sure is the low 2015 and 14 year old lows but I personally don't have anything important TA wise there except the reference tag that is the low but lets take it for this map. So let's build the map. I'll leave a gap of a few minutes to see if somebody wants to jump in or ask ...otherwise...
==> 1.097x (Strong R) .... .....==> 1.082x (.... R) .... .....==>1.066x (Flip) .... .....==> 1.046x (Soft S) .... .....==> 1.018x(...S)
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #146,322
  • Dec 14, 2016 11:54am Dec 14, 2016 11:54am
Final R 1.0950, Flip 1.0715 and final S 1.0030
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,323
  • Dec 14, 2016 11:56am Dec 14, 2016 11:56am
Quoting sisse
+++ Building a map for the FED News Flow +++ .....==> 1.097x (Strong R) .... .....==> xxxxx (.... R) .... .....==>xxxxx (Flip) .... .....==> 1.046x (Soft S) .... .....==> xxxx(...S)...
Thanks all. Well we have a collage of numbers. I don't have any of those exactly but its irrelevant. For the R. We have 1.087x 1.085x and 1.080x, 2x. Mine is 1.083x. so will average it roughly at 1.084x.

Lets start with the R

.....==> 1.097x (Strong R) .... .....==> 1.084x (Strong R) .... .....==>xxxxx (Flip) .... .....==> 1.046x (Soft S) .... .....==> xxxx(...S) ....

For the flip I will leave it open for a few more minutes as I think is important to think deep in this one.

A couple of hints. At what point bears or bulls (depending on your outlook ...we'll talk about that in a min) will be stuck in the wrong side according to your trading plans?....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,324
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:01pm Dec 14, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} At what point bears or bulls (depending on your outlook ...we'll talk about that in a min) will be stuck in the wrong side according to your trading plans?.... sisse
Many late bears would be done or in pain over ~670. Slightly earlier but still late bears (like me) hurt over 800.
Bulls down at 520
  • #146,325
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:05pm Dec 14, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Thanks all. Well we have a collage of numbers. I don't have any of those exactly but its irrelevant. For the R. We have 1.087x 1.085x and 1.080x, 2x. Mine is 1.083x. so will average it roughly at 1.084x. Lets start with the R .....==> 1.097x (Strong R) .... .....==> 1.084x (Strong R) .... .....==>xxxxx (Flip) .... .....==> 1.046x (Soft S) .... .....==> xxxx(...S) .... For the flip I will leave it open for a few more minutes as I think is important to think deep in this one. A couple of hints. At what point bears or bulls (depending on your...
If we use the latest data I would place the flip around 1.0690 area ( I see hoom had it 1.0710 ) Attach chart with how I see that level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 40 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,326
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:13pm Dec 14, 2016 12:13pm
Jesus. Now i want to put my flip at 520 and change my whole map.
  • #146,327
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:16pm Dec 14, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting sisse
+++ Building a map for the FED News Flow +++.....==> 1.097x (Strong R) .... .....==> 1.084x (Strong R) .... .....==>xxxxx (Flip) .... .....==>...
Flip is a mess we have a few 1.071x, 1.067x, 5x 2x, 1x .... I disagree with all them but for the purpose of the map will average to 1.065x. (For those interested my flip is 1.058x ...we can talk later).

More interesting is the almost very shy response to the bottom side. Beyond the low 1.046x we only got some very wide calls to parity, 1.027x 1.033x which pretty much is a random range. For the purpose of this map I will give my S (which is actually my first S in the map) @ 1.037x

.....==> 1.097x (Strong R) ==> ...1.084x (Strong R) ....[we are here]....==>1.065x (Flip).... ==>... 1.046x (Soft S) ....==>(.1.037x Support)

Now lets start wrapping. Lets take this map as given ( the proper flow and risk management is more important than the exact levels as only a sucker will trade them blindly before a news report).

Direct or Zigzag flow? What will create a direct play:

a. None (zigzags onlY)
b. Only +/- inline with expectations (hike .25, inline outlook, inline Yellen)
c. Its an unpredictable mess.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,328
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:22pm Dec 14, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Flip is a mess we have a few 1.071x, 1.067x, 5x 2x, 1x .... I disagree with all them but for the purpose of the map will average to 1.065x. (For those interested my flip is 1.058x ...we can talk later). More interesting is the almost very shy response to the bottom side. Beyond the low 1.046x we only answer got some very wide calls to parity, 1.027x 1.033x which pretty much is a random range. For the purpose of this map I will give my S (which is actually my first S in the map) @ 1.037x .....==> 1.097x (Strong R) ==> ...1.084x (Strong R)...
B please
  • #146,329
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:23pm Dec 14, 2016 12:23pm
come on guys jump in ...we are wrapping up in 7 minutes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,330
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:25pm Dec 14, 2016 12:25pm
c. Its an unpredictable mess.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,331
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:25pm Dec 14, 2016 12:25pm
I guess I dont understand. Seems to me the only direct play would be flop (Direct shot up) or massive overshoot (direct shot down) I guess I see zigzags everywhere.
  • #146,332
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:26pm Dec 14, 2016 12:26pm
Quoting sisse
come on guys jump in ...we are wrapping up in 7 minutes... sisse
B
PVSRA
  • #146,333
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:26pm Dec 14, 2016 12:26pm
Quoting sisse
come on guys jump in ...we are wrapping up in 7 minutes... sisse
Sorry don't understand Q ...expect inline Fed but with also zig zag action?
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,334
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:26pm Dec 14, 2016 12:26pm
by default..a
  • #146,335
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Flip is a mess we have a few 1.071x, 1.067x, 5x 2x, 1x .... I disagree with all them but for the purpose of the map will average to 1.065x. (For those interested my flip is 1.058x ...we can talk later). More interesting is the almost very shy response to the bottom side. Beyond the low 1.046x we only got some very wide calls to parity, 1.027x 1.033x which pretty much is a random range. For the purpose of this map I will give my S (which is actually my first S in the map) @ 1.037x .....==> 1.097x (Strong R) ==> ...1.084x (Strong R) ....[we...
c. it's an unpredictable mess
  • #146,336
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm
B Only +/- inline with expectations
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,337
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm
c
Wise decisions are based on lies we living..
  • #146,338
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm Dec 14, 2016 12:27pm
im missing more options, i think we would find one working. but chosing A.
  • #146,339
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:30pm Dec 14, 2016 12:30pm
I am asking you this questions to make people realise how to trade the map live. So we have the FA in play and their potential outcomes, the map, the TA part and note the technicalities for the flow....all before the news. Thats how you should be trading and preparing for a move any move !!!

If you are betting in a direct play:

--> You will take the direct break of the flip. The break of R if you are long or S if you are short with the news.
--> Or you take the momentum play with stop limit entry (either short or long) and let the market carry you though on the break.

If you are taking a zigzag:

--> You will have to avoid at all cost the initial knee jerk reaction and either fade it or wait for the zigzag to complete to load on calm waters....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,340
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:39pm Dec 14, 2016 12:39pm
Going with b ,
Rest all pending orders sitting at the place with decent s/l and t/p ... Still running my midterm [email protected] and the ecb midterm trades @1.084x ... Expecting a good flow and a break of the low of 2015 and move beyond current support I have two , one near sisse's support I.e.,1.037 other near 1.043 ...
Re-Incarnated
31 traders viewing now