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Trading Ideas for the Fed on Wednesday

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 12, 2016 7:19am Dec 12, 2016 7:19am
I was thinking how to handle FED this week. I see a few possibilities.

1. Stay put and enjoy the fact that no money from account will be lost
2. classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" - after hike just expect that USD will weaken as 0,25% hike is already in price and if comments after will be modest, USD will not strengthen any more
3. buy FRN like they recommend here and wait for aggressive statement from FED and enjoy another hikes in next year

What do you think?
  • #2
  • Dec 12, 2016 2:41pm Dec 12, 2016 2:41pm
I believe the moment was some weeks back to get into the ride, but now it's at critical stage, so now it's more of gambling. People who already have confirmed their seats are just enjoying the ride while others who will try to join it now, they will either sacrifice themselves to gain something or will just make tiny piece, IMO.
  • #3
  • Dec 12, 2016 5:05pm Dec 12, 2016 5:05pm
I'm out at least till thursday-friday. You can try to quess direction, but there are so many heavy news ahead that there will be a lot of volatility, so big stops'higher risk needed. I would more wait for the market to settle the direction and then join the flow on the smaller TFs.
  • #4
  • Dec 12, 2016 8:37pm Dec 12, 2016 8:37pm
better to stay out of big news that brings big unpredictable moves , if the one is experience enough , then they will know how to enter with manageable risk.

if i want to trade big news , i always open a sub account and trade and yes mostly its gamble for me.
  • #5
  • Dec 12, 2016 11:21pm Dec 12, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting frtnsksmn
I was thinking how to handle FED this week. I see a few possibilities. 1. Stay put and enjoy the fact that no money from account will be lost 2. classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" - after hike just expect that USD will weaken as 0,25% hike is already in price and if comments after will be modest, USD will not strengthen any more 3. buy FRN like they recommend here and wait for aggressive statement from FED and enjoy another...
Hiking interest rate always badly effect economy , despite of having lots of rumor regarding interest hike I expect FED not to hike it or even surprisingly cut more USA will reduce outsourcing more , trade embargo with China may likely to place. What will impact on euro/Usd that is question. From 20th December on wards we see very low liquidity in market untill 15th January 2017 and these period not appropriate schedule for trading , Euro/Usd still bear are very active on weekly and daily chart and historically big crash in stock and bullion markets are now passively active. So deep low and huge pull back both are coinciding on euro/usd. So My chart advise me to stay sideline and watch the slow momentum and enter when risk elements buffer.
Never Gamble Forex
  • #6
  • Dec 13, 2016 2:30am Dec 13, 2016 2:30am
Quoting yesyoucan
{quote} Hiking interest rate always badly effect economy , despite of having lots of rumor regarding interest hike I expect FED not to hike it or even surprisingly cut more USA will reduce outsourcing more , trade embargo with China may likely to place. What will impact on euro/Usd that is question. From 20th December on wards we see very low liquidity in market untill 15th January 2017 and these period not appropriate schedule for trading , Euro/Usd still bear are very active on weekly and daily chart and historically big crash in stock...
If they do not hike it will be a big surprise, and they will lost any credibility
  • #7
  • Dec 13, 2016 2:43am Dec 13, 2016 2:43am
Quoting frtnsksmn
{quote} If they do not hike it will be a big surprise, and they will lost any credibility
Why you think so? It's their own agenda and about their own economy and if you feel it's about trading perspective to others? US don't bother.
Never Gamble Forex
  • #8
  • Dec 13, 2016 3:08am Dec 13, 2016 3:08am
Quoting yesyoucan
{quote} Why you think so? It's their own agenda and about their own economy and if you feel it's about trading perspective to others? US don't bother.
I know that is their decision and their economy. However, if they signal it very strongly, then if they do not fulfill their words, then it will be surprise
  • #9
  • Edited 4:00am Dec 13, 2016 3:12am | Edited 4:00am
Recent USD strength probably indicates that hike is already priced in; hence major risk is to the downside (i.e. weaker USD), especially if Yellen suggests that will be several months before Fed hikes again (recent rise in yields and stronger USD tightens the economy, which reduces the immediate pressure on the Fed to raise rates again).

Just my 2c.
  • #10
  • Dec 13, 2016 3:35am Dec 13, 2016 3:35am
Improvisation lol. But seriously, it's just gonna be volatile like hell. Look at USA elections, Italy referendum, and other big recent news. Pairs behave the way they like and how they like. Technical analysis and price action will only work for analysis. In a week, once everybody digests everything, you'll be able to trade on fundamentals and only then.
  • #11
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:06am Dec 14, 2016 2:06am
Think of Brexit vote and U.S. elections. Everything turned out the other way then anticipated. We might not actually get the hike as expected if to follow this year's surprises' logic.
  • #12
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:13am Dec 14, 2016 2:13am
Quoting dogooder
Think of Brexit vote and U.S. elections. Everything turned out the other way then anticipated. We might not actually get the hike as expected if to follow this year's surprises' logic.
you can not compare popular vote with million voters and voting of 10 to 20 people in same room ..
  • #13
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:17am Dec 14, 2016 2:17am
Quoting frtnsksmn
{quote} you can not compare popular vote with million voters and voting of 10 to 20 people in same room ..
Well, you never know. I'm not saying FED won't hike. I'm just saying one should always be prepared for everything and should not naively expect something to happen because others say it will. I think it is especially true in forex.
  • #14
  • Dec 14, 2016 2:52am Dec 14, 2016 2:52am
Currently 91% of the market players believe that the US central bank will raise rates. I usually don’t open any transaction during such days. Just watch the market, and trading will be continued only tomorrow. I wish you all good trades!
  • #15
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:30pm Dec 14, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting yesyoucan
{quote} Hiking interest rate always badly effect economy , despite of having lots of rumor regarding interest hike I expect FED not to hike it or even surprisingly cut more
Wow!! You must be a genius.
  • #16
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:33pm Dec 14, 2016 12:33pm
Quoting Fedricks
I believe the moment was some weeks back to get into the ride, but now it's at critical stage, so now it's more of gambling. People who already have confirmed their seats are just enjoying the ride while others who will try to join it now, they will either sacrifice themselves to gain something or will just make tiny piece, IMO.
Yeh, the ship sailed long time ago and now would be a mere coin toss on how the markets will behave. However, it is important to note that the dollar hasn't made a decent pullback since the Nov rally (but then gold didn't either since Dec'15 - July). COT shows crowded GBPUSD and EURUSD positioning. Wonder how all of this will play out.

Best to stay on the sidelines and watch/hear the commentary than actually risk money. Pips are always there to make, so why risk at the last minute.
  • #17
  • Dec 14, 2016 9:12pm Dec 14, 2016 9:12pm
Quoting jw1981
{quote} Wow!! You must be a genius.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post9342016

read complete discussion or don't read.
Never Gamble Forex
  • #18
  • Dec 15, 2016 1:03am Dec 15, 2016 1:03am
So things went as expected, but it's funny that due to previous happening, it was something many people was thinking something unexpected might pull in, but that wasn't the case. It was actually good time to trade, but i guess it's a lot easier to say all that now then it was 15-20 hours back.
  • #19
  • Last Post: Dec 15, 2016 2:37am Dec 15, 2016 2:37am
Quoting Fedricks
So things went as expected, but it's funny that due to previous happening, it was something many people was thinking something unexpected might pull in, but that wasn't the case. It was actually good time to trade, but i guess it's a lot easier to say all that now then it was 15-20 hours back.
Yea, good ol' 20 / 20 hindsight. I didn't expect things to go that smoothly either.

Quoting Lilly88
I'm out at least till thursday-friday. You can try to quess direction, but there are so many heavy news ahead that there will be a lot of volatility, so big stops'higher risk needed. I would more wait for the market to settle the direction and then join the flow on the smaller TFs.
That was a safe and sane approach. Live to trade another day. There will always be other opportunities.
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