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EurCad Analysis and Trading Ideas

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: May 9, 2012 3:26am May 9, 2012 3:26am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Hello my friends.

As of lately I have had remarkable success in trading EurCad and after hearing other traders ideas I decided that we need a thread where we can discuss what is going on with this pair.

EurCad is a very interesting and fun pair to trade.

So this will be a thread where we can discuss our thoughts and of course try to make some money out of this pair.

The rules for this thread will be pretty lenient, as few rules as possible.
The main rules of FF will of course apply and our main subject will be EUR/CAD but if anyone wants to post something about other CAD related pairs that is okay also.

We can also use some fun in between and a sexy joke or picture will not be a reason to get in trouble.

Keep in mind, we can all learn from each other, which can benefit all of us.
There are no restrictions for this thread, like minimum V’s or so, so anyone can enjoy as long as he or she will try to have a positive mentality and bring a positive input to this thread.

Let's see what this leads to.

Happy trading to all
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • Post #2
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  • May 9, 2012 3:39am May 9, 2012 3:39am
  •  Tomoney
  • | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Member | 263 Posts
I was waiting to see this thread. I hope we will find here some piece of knowledge about trading cad pairs, especialy EC. Congrats to you KillerWhale for the decision to open this thread. I will back here today and write what I noticed about corelation cad pairs with oil prices. I would like to know some other opinions about trading it watching oil.
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 3:43am May 9, 2012 3:43am
  •  aPIPor100
  • | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 71 Posts
Congratulations KillerWhale.
Looking forward to learn about this pair.
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 3:46am May 9, 2012 3:46am
  •  disegnosys
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 1,072 Posts
I'll jump on this, always wanting to learn another pair. I mainly trade e/u and sometimes trade g/u, a/u, a/j, e/j, and g/j. Hope I can help at times.

Best Wishes!

Cheers
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:03am May 9, 2012 3:48am | Edited at 4:03am
  •  mohan76
  • Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Ordinary Members | 10,684 Posts
allow me to post my messy chart as first chat
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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Name: eucad.jpg
Size: 110 KB Click to Enlarge

Name: eucad1h.jpg
Size: 109 KB
Mohan
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • May 9, 2012 4:01am May 9, 2012 4:01am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Quoting Tomoney
Disliked
I was waiting to see this thread. I hope we will find here some piece of knowledge about trading cad pairs, especialy EC. Congrats to you KillerWhale for the decision to open this thread. I will back here today and write what I noticed about corelation cad pairs with oil prices. I would like to know some other opinions about trading it watching oil.
Ignored
Thanks Tomoney
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • May 9, 2012 4:02am May 9, 2012 4:02am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Quoting aPIPor100
Disliked
Congratulations KillerWhale.
Looking forward to learn about this pair.
Ignored
We can sure learn from each other
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  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 4:03am May 9, 2012 4:03am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Quoting mohan76
Disliked
allow me first me messy chart as first chat
Ignored
Thanks Mohan
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 4:03am May 9, 2012 4:03am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Waiting till it starts moving
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  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 4:11am May 9, 2012 4:11am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Regarding UCAD it is at a point where I don't buy and don't sell.

The fact that I have never lost a trade in this pair his directly to do with the fact that I only buy below parity and only sell above parity.
May sound silly but that's where I feel safe
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • May 9, 2012 4:17am May 9, 2012 4:17am
  •  tomspin
  • Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 2,927 Posts
Good morning all

All the best with a new thread KW
Since we are waiting for E/C what you are thinking about U/C??? are we going for 1,0510??
This was my entry from last night - purely technical and it failed and I'm thinking about new place to short this baby down

http://s17.postimage.org/k10xpdcin/usdcad.gif
adult image hosting

Regards

Edit just saw your post above - make sense now why this entry failed...
swing it!
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 4:32am May 9, 2012 4:32am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Quoting tomspin
Disliked
Good morning all

All the best with a new thread KW
Since we are waiting for E/C what you are thinking about U/C??? are we going for 1,0510??
This was my entry from last night - purely technical and it failed and I'm thinking about new place to short this baby down

http://s17.postimage.org/k10xpdcin/usdcad.gif
adult image hosting

Regards

Edit just saw your post above - make sense now why this entry failed...
Ignored
I'm waiting till I see direction
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 5:06am May 9, 2012 5:06am
  •  torkay77
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 887 Posts
EURCAD is one of my favourite pairs too but the time for easy pips is gone in these days...very messy since april ..hope it will change back to easy soon

...this triangle forming shows market is really undecided for now, mainly cause of unclear situation in EU i guess.. i expect UC to not go higher than 1.005 for now so it all depends on EU if it breaks to up or downside
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: ScreenHunter_08 May. 09 10.59.gif
Size: 64 KB
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 5:07am May 9, 2012 5:07am
  •  bassramy
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Cut Your Losses, Ride Your Winners. | 2,876 Posts
Been watching this Pair ( EC ) for 2 months now forming descending triangle on the D1 timeframe, the breakout to the downside as expected is very near til now the PA tells us that a bullish pinbar formed on a very important weekly up trendline ( the neckline of the triangle ) followed by indecision almost long tail doji, a break of this neckline will take us down to the other monthly up trendline on 1.2451 support.

This will happen very soon i believe.
Of course this is only my opinion and don't trust me i know nothing about the financial Markets.

Thank you for your time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: ec d1.gif
Size: 35 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 6:08am May 9, 2012 6:08am
  •  Tomoney
  • | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Member | 263 Posts
As I wrote before I want to encourage you to discoussion about relation beetwen pairs with cad and oil prices. There are many points of view in this case. In common Canadian Dollar is called commodity currency. It is that because of it is sensitive for changes on raw materials like oil, but is it real?

I was doing my own research here trying to prove some stronger corelation or just get nothing. I found results of compare gold and oil prices to US dollar, Canadian and Australian dollar prices. I got some conclusions:

- the highest corelation factor was noticed for gold and AUD in 5 years time frame +0,57 (in the same time USindex and gold corelation was -0,53)

- in one year the corelation of this three currencies to gold was from +0,3 to +0,5 (in the same time US index and gold corelation was -0,48)

-in one month frame corelation of CAD and gold dropped to +0,2 when USindex was still on -0,48 with it

- CAD was the mostly corelated with oil prices from compared three currencies. In one year corealtion factor was +0,29 when USindex in the same time was -0,21

We can also look at the chart which shows compare of aud/usd (red) and cad/usd (grey) to Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index.

It is a piece of informations. I post it to see your opinions and encourage you to do your own reaserch here. Personaly I'm still working at this corelation to get some satisfying conclusion useful in trading CAD pairs. Enjoy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 1120032,325844,9.jpg
Size: 31 KB
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 6:29am May 9, 2012 6:29am
  •  torkay77
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 887 Posts
i agree USDCAD is well correlated to oil prices (around 80%) most of the time that's why i always watch the oil futures WTIM2 charts...but that doesn't apply as good to EURCAD

i like to look at EURCAD in a way of EURUSD without the risk component....so in the moment it is all focus on EU development...if I think all will go well in EU I am long EURCAD..if I think it will get worse I go short
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 8:35am May 9, 2012 8:35am
  •  tomspin
  • Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 2,927 Posts
There goes my little trade 200SMA seems to be hard to cross - fingers crossed.

http://s15.postimage.org/gsc8nwiyj/eur_cad.gif
jpg upload

swing it!
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 11:11am May 9, 2012 11:11am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Quoting torkay77
Disliked
EURCAD is one of my favourite pairs too but the time for easy pips is gone in these days...very messy since april ..hope it will change back to easy soon

...this triangle forming shows market is really undecided for now, mainly cause of unclear situation in EU i guess.. i expect UC to not go higher than 1.005 for now so it all depends on EU if it breaks to up or downside
Ignored
In time we might have to go heavy short on ECAD, but not yet
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 11:12am May 9, 2012 11:12am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Quoting bassramy
Disliked
Been watching this Pair ( EC ) for 2 months now forming descending triangle on the D1 timeframe, the breakout to the downside as expected is very near til now the PA tells us that a bullish pinbar formed on a very important weekly up trendline ( the neckline of the triangle ) followed by indecision almost long tail doji, a break of this neckline will take us down to the other monthly up trendline on 1.2451 support.

This will happen very soon i believe.
Of course this is only my opinion and don't trust me i know nothing about the financial Markets.

Thank...
Ignored
I believe you are right but it is too soon for the big break to the downside
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • May 9, 2012 11:16am May 9, 2012 11:16am
  •  KillerWhale
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Quoting Tomoney
Disliked
As I wrote before I want to encourage you to discoussion about relation beetwen pairs with cad and oil prices. There are many points of view in this case. In common Canadian Dollar is called commodity currency. It is that because of it is sensitive for changes on raw materials like oil, but is it real?

I was doing my own research here trying to prove some stronger corelation or just get nothing. I found results of compare gold and oil prices to US dollar, Canadian and Australian dollar prices. I got some conclusions:

- the highest corelation...
Ignored
IMO there are 2 main factors driving the UCAD
1. What is good for the US dollar is generally good for the Can dollar.
2. Oil prices
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
 
 
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