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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,241
  • Dec 12, 2016 3:52pm Dec 12, 2016 3:52pm
Thanks goosebone for your comment!

sisse,

I am in ECB and Mid Term Swing Flow. I am targeting .046X TP1, .021X TP2. Its just it doesn't make sense to me to watch my trade from .072X go to .053X and not take it off if we are back in a short term swing to .073X again.

I didn't take profit at .053X because we closed under .056X and I didn't want to miss the move. However, we have gone back to .065X level. I don't believe I have a grasp on how to play the momentum leg-MID TERM. I know there are short term legs in it; but, don't seem to really grasp when they are starting in the Mid Term Leg.
  • #146,242
  • Dec 12, 2016 4:11pm Dec 12, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with in a very moving day. As widely expected OIL rock the commodity board pretty much in trading range to complete leg $56.xx any 'minute' but more importantly the news combo the last few days is vey bullish unlocking the extension $63.xx which is key FA resistance and triggering 'choose your poison time' for the Energies close today. Also very important shakes in the currency board. Inflation expectations cracking deep in the UK and Sterling* expectations are rapidly shifting to the BOE that is officially stuck in the major CB...
Thanks for the outlooks, much appreciated

Just throwing a few Bond thoughts out there in case someone might bite .

On the US side we have Fed 95% sure of tightening now in Dec with several more rises expected throughout 2017, accompanied by Trump's tax cuts and expected expansionary deficit spending stimulus policies and/or along with possible trade tariffs all leading to higher inflation/prices and closing a nice loop for the Fed to increase rates even more to curb the added inflation effect ...all Bond negatives!

Added to this we also have the possibility of Oil prices entering into the arena again and contributing more to the inflationary effect but that all depends on just how this Oil Cartel sticks together and delivers but in the short term at least it should also contribute to the Bond negative sentiment.
...and so unsurprisingly US Bond yields continue their rise.

On the EU side, we have no prospects on the horizon either in short or mid term of any rate hikes from the ECB. Although there have been some mutterings in the EU corridors of a relaxation of austerity policies, partly due to fears of Brexit contagion to other states and as a sop to the populists before upcoming EU state elections, the austerity way is still very deeply engrained in the psyche and no way will there ever be a deficit spending spree as is anticipated in the US (with no resulting inflation pressures). Also the ECB have just last Thursday reduced their inflation & growth expectations even further. So no pressure on Bonds from this source just yet.
Added to this we have the €80B soon to be €60B (minimum) monthly bond purchases extended until at least the end of 2017 or beyond ...definitely Bond positive.

So, all things being equal (which they never are of course ha ha ) it should be the case that a divergence occurs here where US bond yields are increasing while EU yields, if not in theory reducing further or stagnating, then at the very least are not increasing at the same rate as US yields.

The point I'm trying to get at here is that going into 2017 US yields should theoretically be increasing faster that EU yields, giving us ever widening divergences between UST's and Bunds for example, and the greater this divergence the lower the Eur/Usd should fall?

The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,243
  • Edited 4:35pm Dec 12, 2016 4:24pm | Edited 4:35pm
...and we rolled. Euro barely held soft 1.063x but held at the end ....irrelevant roll at the end ....

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
.... I am targeting .046X TP1, .021X TP2. Its just it doesn't make sense to me to watch my trade from .072X go to .053X and not take it off if we are back in a short term swing to .073X again. I didn't take profit at .053X because we closed under .056X and I didn't want to miss the move. However, we have gone back to .065X level. I don't believe I have a grasp on how to play the momentum leg-MID TERM. I know there are short term legs in it; but, don't seem to really grasp when they are starting in the Mid Term Leg.

  1. You are making the same mistake as before. You are looking too close to the market if you are trading a mid term leg. No break, no shake, no nothing to see there. We are sitting in the same place since we completed the FED expectations leg....
  2. You are trying to catch a big fish with a small boat. What makes you think in the middle nowhere time wise we will have a runner... you will never get it right if you think you can catch the exact break out leg ....its like those traders that watch m1 thinking they will catch the perfect wave on a Quarterly swing ....sure GL keep trying and hopefully you wont bleed yourself to dead.
  3. You are entering a trade blindly without having your exits clearly defined. Its ok to revalaluate trades after major reports or mover and shakers. You are reevaluating a mid term leg on moves intraday.... same mistake as before.
  4. Your trade management is a disaster and seems purely emotional. Why 1.053x? Why not 1.053x.? you should have decided that before even reach there. There hasn't been anything in the Euro since the ECB so if 1.053x wasn't your target why on earth you are worrying about it. IF it was why on earth you didn't clear it?
  5. We have a momentum play trigger now confirmed for the FED. Can you spot it?

sisse

Quoting CommercialB
... The point I'm trying to get at here is that going into 2017 US yields should theoretically be increasing faster that EU yields, giving us ever widening divergences between UST's and Bunds for example, and the greater this divergence the lower the Eur/Usd should fall?
V. Good post.

Yes. That is the leg to parity you are defining. After nearly 6 years we finally have the FA trigger for parity .... as long as that hold ,1.061x will stay as the steel FA support on rate differentials that have hold since forever....once we cross that line the floor will be unlocked to a new map...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,244
  • Dec 12, 2016 4:51pm Dec 12, 2016 4:51pm
Quoting sisse
...After nearly 6 years we finally have the FA trigger for parity .... as long as that hold ,1.061x will stay as the steel FA support on rate differentials that have hold since forever....once we cross that line the floor will be unlocked to a new map... sisse
Ha ha will be keeping my steely eyes on that level so to be sure! ...thanks
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,245
  • Dec 12, 2016 4:58pm Dec 12, 2016 4:58pm
Let's talk about .0610 for a minute. This might help me a little here.

We closed under .0610 a few times and .0560 last week. That was my confirmation to stay in my trades for mid term.

Now we have exceed .0610 and we are looking st again. For what? We go below and above it. We closed W below. What am I missing?
  • #146,246
  • Dec 12, 2016 5:16pm Dec 12, 2016 5:16pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Let's talk about .0610 for a minute. This might help me a little here. We closed under .0610 a few times and .0560 last week. That was my confirmation to stay in my trades for mid term. Now we have exceed .0610 and we are looking st again. For what? We go below and above it. We closed W below. What am I missing?
Everything....

1.061x is mid term FA support on rate differentials that enters in play with the FED / Q/Y combo. Last M close was relevant (thats why we cleared all on the first test), the ECB close was relevant ...thats why we are in imminent break down alerts for a couple of weeks already .... you seem to be tracking that level intraday or random daily candles...those are irrelevant ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,247
  • Dec 12, 2016 6:35pm Dec 12, 2016 6:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Everything.... 1.061x is mid term FA support on rate differentials that enters in play with the FED / Q/Y combo. Last M close was relevant (thats why we cleared all on the first test), the ECB close was relevant ...thats why we are in imminent break down alerts for a couple of weeks already .... you seem to be tracking that level intraday or random daily candles...those are irrelevant ... sisse
We closed a WEEKLY Candle below .0610 after the ECB. That is not intra-day. That was confirmation in my books and made me more than confident of a continuation move. We have Italy with NO vote and ECB showing more Dovish. We have inflation fears nows in US and possible more rate hikes in 2017. We trade expectations and not FACTS. I looked for the .046X level to be hit pre-FED for these reasons. This is why .046X was my TP1 and not .053X to .051X.

Obviously, I keep missing and am lucky to a lesser degree which is the worst kind of luck to have here.
  • #146,248
  • Edited 8:44pm Dec 12, 2016 8:11pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} We closed a WEEKLY Candle below .0610 after the ECB. That is not intra-day. That was confirmation in my books and made me more than confident of a continuation move. We have Italy with NO vote and ECB showing more Dovish. We have inflation fears nows in US and possible more rate hikes in 2017. We trade expectations and not FACTS. I looked for the .046X level to be hit pre-FED for these reasons. This is why .046X was my TP1 and not .053X to .051X. Obviously, I keep missing and am lucky to a lesser degree which is the worst kind of luck to...
I think you are tracking the levels fine but the question you are asking is not relevant for Mid term flow. You are asking, why EUR is not going lower today since it closed below .0610 in the past weekly candle?
In response what sisse is saying, what makes you the think the follow through has to the happen this quick (next day) and since it did not happen today, instead retrace a little bit, does it change the mid term outlook and the map in anyway?
What i am understanding from his response is, If you are playing mid term flow then focus on the mid term flow levels. Do not worry about daily/Hourly movements....
Note: Take my comments with a sack of salt. I do not understand half of what he explain here. :-)
  • #146,249
  • Dec 12, 2016 8:53pm Dec 12, 2016 8:53pm
Thanks Xxavier!

I think this is close to being right. My issue is is trying to play a MID Term Leg with adjusting for short term legs and swings. If I can understand this, I may have the Holy Grail for ME. Then, I can get into the Ebb and Flows, Roll and better positions.

I played this move from .073X and .065X well until I didn't take profit at .053X and have let the trade come back to at least the .065X level. I could have taken profit at .053X and then used those rewards to take another Trade and amaged more reward than capital.

sisse did discuss this in an illustration but its not as simple as A, B C because diff variables pop up in it. Or, perhaps, I am just a slow learner.
  • #146,250
  • Dec 12, 2016 9:09pm Dec 12, 2016 9:09pm
Problem?

http://financefeeds.com/cfd-bombshel...sive-analysis/

"Mr. Nembrini believes that the regulatory authorities in countries where the FX industry is populous, those being the United States, Britain, Australia and certain parts of the APAC region have an agenda in which they are setting in place a procedure in order to have the entire OTC FX and OTC derivatives migrated to an exchange model."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,251
  • Dec 12, 2016 9:42pm Dec 12, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting The Fool
Problem?
just keep calm and carry on....
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/1d...2ea0dd69d39d68
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146,252
  • Edited Dec 13, 2016 5:59am Dec 12, 2016 9:42pm | Edited Dec 13, 2016 5:59am
Quoting IMARICH1
Thanks Xxavier! I think this is close to being right. My issue is is trying to play a MID Term Leg with adjusting for short term legs and swings. If I can understand this, I may have the Holy Grail for ME. Then, I can get into the Ebb and Flows, Roll and better positions. I played this move from .073X and .065X well until I didn't take profit at .053X and have let the trade come back to at least the .065X level. I could have taken profit at .053X and then used those rewards to take another Trade and amaged more reward than capital. sisse did discuss...
Your avg. entry must be something like 670-80 depending on how much you were adding on lower down. I think it's probably just an expensive ticket for those big mid term targets you are looking at. I don't think you should analyze it too much beyond that. My 2 cents.
  • #146,253
  • Dec 12, 2016 10:01pm Dec 12, 2016 10:01pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Thanks Xxavier! I think this is close to being right. My issue is is trying to play a MID Term Leg with adjusting for short term legs and swings. If I can understand this, I may have the Holy Grail for ME. Then, I can get into the Ebb and Flows, Roll and better positions. I played this move from .073X and .065X well until I didn't take profit at .053X and have let the trade come back to at least the .065X level. I could have taken profit at .053X and then used those rewards to take another Trade and amaged more reward than capital. sisse did discuss...
Did you save the links where Sisse explain trade management, positioning etc? Can you send here if you have it saved please?
  • #146,254
  • Dec 12, 2016 10:25pm Dec 12, 2016 10:25pm
Quoting Xxavier
{quote} Did you save the links where Sisse explain trade management, positioning etc? Can you send here if you have it saved please?

XXavier

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9169787#post9169787
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=310676&page=7185
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=310676&page=7187

hope it helps

SB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #146,255
  • Dec 13, 2016 12:33am Dec 13, 2016 12:33am
posting the shared google spreadsheet link that tracks outlook's for different currencies. Some kind soul has already updated for today's changes. Thanks!!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=295008952
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #146,256
  • Dec 13, 2016 3:06am Dec 13, 2016 3:06am
Quoting stt
posting the shared google spreadsheet link that tracks outlook's for different currencies. Some kind soul has already updated for today's changes. Thanks!! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=295008952
Like the addition of the Latest Outlook column!
Note of caution: ALL of the time frames in this column are filled in and I can't be sure if they're all correct as I'd trawled back a good bit through sisse's posts and couldn't find that much. Also some of them look a bit dodgy like SPX and Gold for example, and the new Gbp* Sterling entry is entirely omitted ....be hard to keep something like that up to date and accurate. Am not saying that there are inaccuracies in the entries and thanks to whoever updated it but just beware that many cooks can spoil the broth ha ha!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,257
  • Dec 13, 2016 4:01am Dec 13, 2016 4:01am
Inflation keep picking up in the UK as expected. OIL and commodities breaking up and Brexit chapter 2 will bring the rest. From a macroeconomic point view we are sitting on the BOE limit for inflation. We are aligning for a very sharp raise next year. Its starting to smell like 'stagflation' cooking for the mid/long term if the UK lose complete access to the common market ....

For now Sterling* in bidafter the news as suspected with Germans numbers inline. We are pretty much done for the session and prolly the day. NY opening will put us in no man's land for the final mover and shaker of the year.

sisse

@CommercialB looks ok at a quick glance ...maybe you want to enforce the initials of the person that last updated? .... whatever the case, as soon as we clear the FED will get some updates on the next stage from the the iteration front ...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,258
  • Edited 4:32am Dec 13, 2016 4:04am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting stt
posting the shared google spreadsheet link that tracks outlook's for different currencies. Some kind soul has already updated for today's changes. Thanks!! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=295008952
Heheh yeah that's the power of "open source". The moment I saw Sisse's posts I checked the spreadsheet and sure enough, it was updated. Nice!

Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Like the addition of the Latest Outlook column!
I changed the latest outlook column to "automagically" take the last value entered in the row. No need to manually update this field anymore.

Inserted Code
(=ArrayFormula(LOOKUP(2,(1/not(isblank((C8:8)))),C8:8))
  • #146,259
  • Dec 13, 2016 5:29am Dec 13, 2016 5:29am
Quoting stt
posting the shared google spreadsheet link that tracks outlook's for different currencies. Some kind soul has already updated for today's changes. Thanks!! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=295008952
Thanks. I'm surprised of some outlooks : I have MT/LT outlooks in DAX and MT outlook in FTSE at Sell not Neutral.
Maybe we could add the links to Sisses posts at each update.

Edit: I have also MT outlook in Gold at Buy not Neutral
  • #146,260
  • Dec 13, 2016 5:40am Dec 13, 2016 5:40am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Thanks. I'm surprised of some outlooks : I have MT/LT outlooks in DAX and MT outlook in FTSE at Sell not Neutral. Maybe we could add the links to Sisses posts at each update.
It should be possible to find the outlook changes reason for change from the date by look in the thread here for the posts at the dates.

Very good idea with the googledocs spreadsheet for it. Just hope that not any people with bad intentions mess it up since it is open for anyone with the link to change atm.
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