Pivot Trading

Hi Rocky
I live in MA as wellIf you are using east coast broker you didn't need to change anything unless your broker is central or west.
Good luck trading

ok guys I am done here for this week Carrying over EA long EU long AN long next week
Should be exciting Feds day.Hopefully USD declines after lousy .25 raise.
Stay green
Interesting fact since 1910 2term president followed by recession 100%. Lets see if the wall street pyramid is about to collapse after8 yrs of free money
Trump wants to keep the rates low we'll see how it unfolds.

GMT and NYC close that all makes the difference. The bellows link might give some helpful information you need. As Mr. Davit advice east coast broker you didn't need to change anything. Follow his instruction your setup will be fine.
http://help.fxcm.com/us/44565513/MT4...arts-FAQ-s.htm
https://www.oanda.com/corp/forex-lab...ents-88370480/

EA is near strong monthly support on daily charts. Upward price action signals can give us a good edge. Also if there wil be a break to the south, I will wait retracements to short.

worth watching
Correlation of gold taking off upwards after last Feds hike is great.This translates USD weakening after hike and Gold getting stronger.This has lot to do with what is already priced in.

relationship of Gold vs USD
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Fraser/2013...US-Dollar.html

Keep in mind that major news outlets projecting 3-4 Fed hike in 2017 are delusional.We can't project what Trump administration might be like but we can conclusively say that since 1910 2 term president followed by recession is 100%

US Presidential Elections and Recessions
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...recession-2017

Please don't get caught buying USD when market suddenly reverses with a punch.Example recent EU rally to 108 killing all weak shorts and subsequently retail shorts now could get killed again.When Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs say buy USD you can almost conclude opposite what they are advising.These guys are not going to advertise their true intent openly to media.

TRADING IN THE ZONE - MARK DOUGLAS


1. Anything can happen.
Why? Because there are always unknown forces operating in every market at
every moment, it takes only one trader somewhere in the world to negate the positive outcome of your
edge. That's all: only one. Regardless of how much time, effort, or money you've invested in your
analysis, from the market's perspective there are no exceptions to this truth. Any exceptions that may
exist in your mind will be a source of conflict and potentially cause you to perceive market information
as threatening.

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
Why? Because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an
edge. (See number 3.) In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that
out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don't know is the sequence
of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades.
This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game.
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win
and lose no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with
the possibilities. Keep in mind that nothing has more potential to cause emotional discord than our
unfulfilled expectations. Emotional pain is the universal response when the outside world expresses
itself in a way that doesn't reflect what we expect or believe to be true. As a result, any market
information that does not confirm our expectations is automatically defined and interpreted as
threatening. That interpretation causes us to adopt a negatively charged, defensive state of mind, where
we end up creating the very experience we are trying to avoid. Market information is only threatening
if you are expecting the market to do something for you.
Otherwise, if you don't expect the market to make you right, you have no reason to be afraid of being
wrong. If you don't expect the market to make you a winner, you have no reason to be afraid of losing.
If you don't expect the market to keep going in your direction indefinitely, there is no reason to leave
money on the table. Finally, if you don't expect to be able to take advantage of every opportunity just
because you perceived it and it presented itself, you have no reason to be afraid of missing out. On the
other hand, if you believe that all you need to know is:
1. the odds are in your favor before you put on a trade;
2. how much it's going to cost to find out if the trade is going to work;
3. you don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money on that trade; and
4. anything can happen;
Then how can the market make you wrong? What information could the market generate about itself
that would cause your pain-avoidance mechanisms to kick in so that you exclude that information from
your awareness? None that I can think of.
If you believe that anything can happen and that you don't need to know what is going to happen next
to make money, then you will always be right. Your expectations will always be in harmony with the
conditions as they exist from the market's perspective, effectively neutralizing your potential to
experience emotional pain. By the same token, how can a losing trade or even a series of losers have
the typical negative effect, if you really believe that trading is a probability or numbers game? If your
edge puts the odds in your favor, then every loss puts you that much closer to a win. When you really
believe this, your response to a losing trade will no longer take on a negative emotional quality.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define
an edge.
If every loss puts you that much closer to a win, you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of
your edge, ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation. On the other
hand, if you still believe that trading is about analysis or about being right, then after a loss you will
anticipate the occurrence of your next edge with trepidation, wondering if it's going to work. This, in
turn, will cause you to start gathering evidence for or against the trade. You will gather evidence for the
trade if your fear of missing out is greater than your fear of losing. And you will gather information
against the trade if your fear of losing is greater than your fear of missing out. In either case, you will
not be in the most conducive state of mind to produce consistent results.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over
another.
Creating consistency requires that you completely accept that trading isn't about hoping, wondering, or
gathering evidence one way or the other to determine if the next trade is going to work. The only
evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given
moment. When you use "other" information, outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you
will take the trade, you are adding random variables to your trading regime.
Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine what works and
what doesn't. If you're never certain about the viability of your edge, you won't feel too confident about
it. To whatever degree you lack confidence, you will experience fear. The irony is, you will be afraid of
random, inconsistent results, without realizing that your random, inconsistent approach is creating
exactly what you are afraid of. On the other hand, if you believe that an edge is simply a higher
probability of one thing happening over another, and there's a random distribution between wins and
losses for any given set of variables that define an edge, why would you gather "other" evidence for or
against a trade? To a trader operating out of these two beliefs, gathering "other" evidence wouldn't
make any sense.
Or let me put it this way: Gathering "other" evidence makes about as much sense as trying to determine
whether the next flip of a coin will be heads, after the last ten flips came up tails. Regardless of what
evidence you find to support heads coming up, there is still a 50-percent chance that the next flip will
come up tails. By the same token, regardless of how much evidence you gather to support acting or not
acting on a trade, it still only takes one trader somewhere in the world to negate the validity of any, if
not all, of your evidence. The point is why bother! If the market is offering you a legitimate edge,
determine the risk and take the trade.

5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Take a moment and think about the concept of uniqueness. "Unique" means not like anything else that
exists or has ever existed. As much as we may understand the concept of uniqueness, our minds don't
deal with it very well on a practical level. As we have already discussed, our minds are hardwired to
automatically associate (without conscious awareness) anything in the exterior environment that is
similar to anything that is already inside of us in the form of a memory, belief, or attitude. This creates
an inherent contradiction between the way we naturally think about the world and the way the world
exists. No two moments in the external environment will ever exactly duplicate themselves. To do so,
every atom or every molecule would have to be in the exact same position they were in some previous
moment.
Not a very likely possibility. Yet, based on the way our minds are designed to process information, we
will experience the "now moment" in the environment as being exactly the same as some previous
moment as it exists inside our minds. If each moment is like no other, then there's nothing at the level
of your rational experience that can tell you for sure that you "know" what will happen next. So I will
say again, why bother trying to know?! When you try to know, you are, in essence, trying to be right. I
am not implying here that you can't predict what the market will do next and be right, because you
most certainly can. It's in the trying that you run into all of the problems. If you believe that you
correctly predicted the market once, you will naturally try to do it again.
As a result, your mind will automatically start scanning the market for the same pattern, circumstance,
or situation that existed the last time you correctly predicted its movement. When you find it, your state
of mind will make it seem as if everything is exactly as it was the last time. The problem is that, from
the market's perspective, it is not the same. As a result, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
What separates the best traders from all the rest is that they have trained their minds to believe in the
uniqueness of each moment (although this training usually takes the form of losing several fortunes
before they "really" believe in the concept of uniqueness). This belief acts as a counteracting force,
neutralizing the automatic association mechanism. When you truly believe that each moment is unique,
then by definition there isn't anything in your mind for the association mechanism to link that moment
to. This belief acts as an internal force causing you to disassociate the "now" moment in the market
from any previous moment filed away in your mental environment. The stronger your belief in the
uniqueness of each moment, the lower your potential to associate. The lower your potential to
associate, the more open your mind will be to perceive what the market is offering you from its
perspective.

Good Evening Everyone

Short term there is another complicating element concerning the strength of the US Dollar Index as it relates to EUR/USD which makes up 57.6% of the index. Because of the short term uncertainty of the bank on life support in Italy that needs to be watched. Then it is possible that on Wednesday , December 14, 2016 when Janet and the FED announce we could be in for a surprise either way. If they most likely raise by 0.25% we might see "The Buy The Rumor, Sell The News" factor. Usually when the US Dollar Index goes down Gold goes up however not all the time. Watch the US Bond Yield on the 10 Years to see if it goes over 2.50% or not. There are many things to be aware of however be very careful at least until end of day on December 14, 2016. We trade in interesting times. As another note on Gold into next year those of the Muslim faith will be allowed to invest or purchase Gold. That was only finalized on December 7, 2016. The Shanghai Gold Exchange also most likely will keep the paper manipulators more honest on the Comex. In case anyone is not aware of WWW.GATA.ORG there is very good information available there on a daily basis.

http://www.gata.org/node/17000

http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog...inance-market/

Snippet:

The AAOIFI, in collaboration with the World Gold Council (WGC) and Amanie Advisors, has approved what will become known as the Shariah Gold Standard. This is a set of guidelines that will expand the variety and use of gold-based products in Islamic Finance.
As many as 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, 25 per cent of the population, will have far greater access to the gold market than they have since the birth of modern finance, which has been primarily structured towards Western ideals.
More details were announced at the World Islamic Banking Conference including details of the gold products that are likely to be permissible.

The sharia gold standard announced yesterday allows the over 110 million investors in the Islamic world to invest in
a) vaulted gold
b) gold savings plans (such as GoldCore’s GoldSaver)
c) gold certificates
d) physical gold ETFs including “probably” the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded gold (GLD)
e) gold mining shares (within certain Shari’ah parameters)
We know three things that the new Shariah gold-standard will achieve:

a) Increase diversity in the number of available Shariah gold compliant investment products

b) Greater emphasis on the role of physical gold in gold transactions

c) Islamic finance will have greater say in the setting of the gold price
To some, this may appear to be an unnecessary formality taken by the body whose guidelines are followed by Islamic finance institutions across the world. After all, physical gold is Shariah-compliant and holds a unique status for Muslims.
AAIOFI states, “From the perspective of Islamic Fiqh and the Islamic economic system, gold has its specific significance. This significance arises from the specific principles provided for gold and silver as Thaman in Shari’ah.”

According to Islamic texts, gold is a ribawi item, which means that it must be sold on weight and measure, and cannot be traded for future value or for speculation. In order for a gold instrument to be Shariah-compliant, the precious metal must be the underlying asset in related transactions.
However there has been a need for clarification for how gold bullion can be used for investment purposes by Muslims, for a long time.
This uncertainty has kept Shariah-compliant offerings at a minimum and many investors restricted by the type of gold bullion transactions they are able to partake in, with most focused on jewellery and coin offerings. Daud Bakar, chairman of Amanie Advisors, agrees, “.the existing Islamic standards for gold are fragmented, hampering product development and market demand.”

Currently in the gold market, the majority of activity regarding gold financial instruments is based almost entirely on speculation. This is due to the overwhelming size of both the London and COMEX (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) gold markets, which together have the greatest influence on the spot price of gold.

Whilst Islamic investors have always had access to the gold market through jewellery and coins, this guidance will vastly increase the number and diversity of investment products available. There are very few Shari’ah-compliant gold offerings today. Using its deep sector knowledge, GoldCore, and its Islamic partners, have been working on a comprehensive solution for two years and will provide the solution to qualifying Islamic financial institutions in early 2017.

With gold investment platforms such as GoldCore able to offer segregated, allocated gold bullion accounts with the option of physical delivery, Muslims are now able to invest in gold bars and coins.

The new ‘gold standard’ will affect the gold market globally as 1.6 billion people will be able for the first time to use gold bullion products and platforms that offer physical delivery, allocated and segregated gold ownership.

“For a number of years we have been working on an institutional gold platform and indeed a Sharia compliant gold bullion solution for the institutional market. As a market leader in precious metal storage, we have been consulting with major institutions and our strong partners to deliver allocated and segregated gold storage services to investors throughout the world”, said GoldCore CEO, Stephen Flood.

If Islamic Finance institutions were to allocate just one per cent of assets into new gold products then we would expect to see demand climb by about 500-1000 tonnes, per annum. Given that recent demand and supply figures showed a surplus of just 172 tonnes of gold in the market, we could begin to see some tightening with the increase of Shariah-compliant gold instruments, which will have a positive impact on the price.

It is not unreasonable to expect a minimum one per cent move of Islamic finance assets into gold, especially when you look at how it has performed. WGC data shows that in the last eight years the major Islamic asset classes (including REITs, the Takaful index, the Dow Jones Islamic Equities Index and the Dow Jones Sukuk Index) have all underperformed compared to gold, as have the major currencies used in the Islamic world.

UPDATE on Banking Issues in Eurozone

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...-around-corner

Snippet:

Source: Bloomberg.com
The original plan consisted of trying to offload a portfolio with bad loans into a separate entity, and subsequently raise an additional 5B EUR in an equity sale. This would be necessary to continue to meet the regulatory minimum level of capital to survive a crisis, as under the stress test scenario of the EBA, Banca Monte Paschi was the only bank ending with a negative (!) capital ratio, so something really has to be done.

In fact, the situation is probably even worse now, as the continuous outflow of the consumer deposits will deteriorate the capital levels, considering the loan-to-deposit ratio will continue to increase, even though the total value of the loan book would be stabilizing. Cash is needed to avoid a vicious circle: the more cash customers are withdrawing, the more precarious the financial situation of the bank becomes, forcing more customers to withdraw more cash. And we all know how this type of story usually ends…

https://secularinvestor.com/wp-conte...e-paschi-3.jpg
Source: Bloomberg
Banca Monte Paschi does have a fancy and shiny new presentation, outlining its strategic plan to become a profitable bank again (oh irony), but two of the three pillars of this ‘re-vamp’ process will be very difficult to realize. Not only does the bank need to raise 5B EUR in equity (good luck with that, as the market capitalization is just half a billion right now), it’s also calling for almost 30B EUR in bad loans to be separated into a bad bank, for which it will need an additional 10B EUR, through senior debt, mezzanine loans and junior notes. Good luck with that as well!

It will be really interesting to see the balance sheet of BMPS at the end of this year, as the result of the Italian referendum will very likely have had another negative on the confidence in the Italian financial system, as all larger banks also had to confess they needed to raise cash to fund bigger capital buffers.
BMPS is being hit pretty hard. After all, Italian citizens withdraw cash from the weaker banks, and can deposit the cash on an account with a stronger bank. That’s exactly what we saw in Europe during the Global Financial Crisis (some banks were literally ‘saved’ by the incoming deposits from clients withdrawing cash from their accounts at banks that were perceived to be even less stable).

https://secularinvestor.com/wp-conte...e-paschi-5.jpg
Source: quarterly results
In the first nine months of the year, the total amount of direct funding has decreased by a stunning 14%, fueled by a huge decrease of current accounts and dime deposits (both -15% on a YoY basis), whilst the total amount that has been lent decreased by just 7%. This means the loan-to-deposit ratio increased from 92% at the end of September 2015, to 99%. That’s still fine, but the simple fact the total amount of funding related to bond issues by the bank (-34%!) indicates the capital markets are starting to close for Banca Monte Paschi.

From JSMINESET - Jim Sinclair is an extraordinary analyst in the Gold Market.

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Snippet:

Posted December 11th, 2016 at 7:05 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Extremely intelligent people do not ask stupid questions therefore this question demands an answer determined by assuming a logical thought pattern under circumstance presented based on the premise in finance today, “Never say Never.”

Dear most respected colleague,
That seems quite absurd. However, everything today in markets is absurd. There is a strong premium in the new physical gold markets in the East, which might give rise to such a strange rumor.

I am not sure its would make sense because there is powerful demand for physical in the East (India went to USD $3000). When you stop incoming supply which way internally does any item move? In India gold went to USD $3000 on a lesser event. In China, I would say blockage of gold imports and gold internally goes to USD $5000 there. In the paper market the gold disappears in price, but to what purpose other than one hell of of black market arbitrage. You would have a USD $4090 difference between western paper gold markets and eastern physical gold markets. No power on Earth would stop that arbitrage.
You have to have the physical to make delivery in the newly listed Eastern physical market gold. So inside China physical heads for $5000 is as crazy as that seems. Maybe Shri Modi is taking the position of head of the China central bank.

Comex paper gold is offered at $10 per ounce. Eastern listed physical $5000 bid, none offered. Net Jet business booms. Come warehouse empties, the paper gold market no longer functions.

Comex warehouse collapses in 90 days after Comex contracts unilaterally notated, like during the Hunt Crisis.

The price determination mechanic of gold shifts from paper to physical in 90 days. Massive confusion among gold and silver manufacturers of OTC derivatives. The only result of such an action would be to create one hell of a mess and a Market Reset of the currency system in 90 days with Russia and China in charge.
Then Trump would have the opportunity to move back to the gold standard of a sorts with the paper players having no market to manipulate. That is assuming that there is any gold fungible in the US Treasury holdings.
Regards,
Jim

Hi guys!
I want to say many thanks to Davit for sharing his strategy and Tamarind77 for recalling us priceless rules TRADING IN THE ZONE by late Mark Douglas. In this context I'd like to share with all of you his six-hour presentation "How To Think Like a Professional Trader" in 4 parts.

In this presentation Mark will cover:
- trading skills.
- the three developmental modes of trading; mechanical, subjective, intuitive.
- the dynamics of price movement.
- characteristics of technical analysis.
- the relationship between the math and market movement.

Cheers and green pips everyone

Part 1:
Part 2:
Part 3:
Part 4:

Are everyones pivots the same?

pretty close on my fxcm feed

almost same with oanda NY, with under 1 pip different.

ActiveTrade, London

wow our charts certainly look different

Thank you! pieces of advice please open a GMT-5 demo account attach the pivot and see the magic

I am test, thanks

Hi guys just an update
Got stopped out on AN long.Was holding to break out to 500 but didn't happen. EU long got out with minor profit.
EA still holding but PA is bearish ATM on lower TF
Here is my EA you can compare pivots
Watching AN if breaks below 400 might start building another set.

added another postilion on EA total 7
should reach 1.44 by Thurs