Lock's Cable Corner | Page 101 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Mysterio's Cable Corner -- Key Levels, Price Action & Order Flow 785 replies

Updating stops to lock in profits 3 replies

lock pattern for global variable in MT4 2 replies

Attachments: Lock's Cable Corner
Exit Attachments

Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,001
  • Dec 9, 2016 1:16am Dec 9, 2016 1:16am
16/12/09 FRIDAY 08:16+1GMT (edited untill 08:18)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday we saw a big liquidation started at highest GB close for December (27046 made by 12.06 pit session period E): note that GB high tagged exactly this reference.
The liquidation continued with preUS session: note preUS high tagging exactly the monthly breakeven level at 2673.
Then eventually pit session continued it down to round 2550 (tagged again by pit low): note the perfect "b" shape of the composite profile preUS+pit US that is a confirmation of the liquidation developed yesterday.

Now, all the action we have seen in the last 2 days starting from 12.06 high looks like a liquidation but this does not mean it cannot continue or even morph into something bigger. Note also that yesterday liquidation in cable had a substantial relationship with the short covering experienced in USDX: if USD wants to eventually establish a good high above current weak "all time" high (it is weak because it has been established by a non pit session) then cable could also follow it continuing with current action downside.

Note that current Tokyo session developed below yesterday GB session low 2616 and is currently building a new gap downside for upcoming GB session: if this will eventually happen and if this new possible gap will not be retraced quickly we could have continuation downside.

So, the major references for today are the same of yesterday: the monthly breakeven at 2673 and the weekly breakeven at 25122. But we could add to them the new references builded yesterday: yesterday GB high at GB highest close for December at 27046, the weak pit low at 2548 (note also that as written yesterday it is a bounce exactly at 25493 that is the half back of the entire move downside from 09.22 to the "all time" low), the remaining portion of the DOUBLE PIT PASS GAP down to 25226.

The major composite pocs are at 2730 and 2612 (both above current price location) and 24169 far below current price location.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,002
  • Dec 9, 2016 2:09am Dec 9, 2016 2:09am
Quoting Lock
In USDX we got a 4 pass gap above current price location: it is extremely rare to have a similar zone untested 4 times in a row. (100.35 zone)
Quoting Lock
{quote} Note a very significant information given to us by current situation in USDX: the already 4 pass GB gap at 100.35 zone, if price will remain above it as it is now untill tomorrow GB open, will become a 5 pass gap: and I've never seen a thing like this in my entire trading experience. So carry this info forward.
in USDX now we got a 5 pass gap at 100.35 zone: extraordinary rare event.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,003
  • Dec 9, 2016 5:39am Dec 9, 2016 5:39am
12:39+1GMT
The cable situation.

This morning we saw a short covering of the last Tokyo liquidation: note the perfect "p" shape of current GB profile. This short covering filled quickly the new gap lower and in this way remove the possibility of a continuation downside for this GB session. Current high is poor at 26205 while F period low is weak at HB 2590 as G and H are both weak at round 2600. Price is clustering below the closest major composite poc at 2612.

For now we got no acceptatin back inside yesterday GB range, nor inside today Tokyo session.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,004
  • Dec 9, 2016 5:45am Dec 9, 2016 5:45am
12:45+1GMT
Note also that technically E was an inside period of D. C, D and E low were all weak downside, F attempted below E, it removed the weaknesses and came back inside E balance: natural target the opposite side of E. The problem here is that F, G and H are all weak downside as written. So watch out if E high will be taken out. Plus major composite poc at 2612 tends to attract price, so it will also be difficult to evade it without volume.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,005
  • Dec 9, 2016 5:56am Dec 9, 2016 5:56am
Quoting Lock
12:45+1GMT Note also that technically E was an inside period of D. C, D and E low were all weak downside, F attempted below E, it removed the weaknesses and came back inside E balance: natural target the opposite side of E. The problem here is that F, G and H are all weak downside as written. So watch out if E high will be taken out. Plus major composite poc at 2612 tends to attract price, so it will also be difficult to evade it without volume.

12:56...all taken out. Now let's see if it want to eventually test the poor high or not.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,006
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:13am Dec 9, 2016 7:13am
14:13+1GMT
preUS opened inside yesterday pit session range (2548-2630): initial acceptation of it and eventually test above and/or below it expected. Note that for upcoming pit session the double pass gap downside is clearly attractive. But let's see where it will open.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,007
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:22am Dec 9, 2016 7:22am
14:22+1GMT

Note that USDX has the opportunity to establish eventually a good pit high above current weak "all time" high.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,008
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:41am Dec 9, 2016 7:41am
14:41 Remember that yesterday preUS+pit US was liquidation: meaning old business and not new money selling.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,009
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:43am Dec 9, 2016 7:43am
Quoting Lock
14:41 Remember that yesterday preUS+pit US was liquidation: meaning old business and not new money selling.

Then today we saw a short covering made by GB session that liquidated itself in the last periods.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,010
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:45am Dec 9, 2016 7:45am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Then today we saw a short covering made by GB session that liquidated itself in the last periods.
Then here again preUS making a short covering... What I mean is that we are watching weak hands ruling this market. In a rotational environment.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,011
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:59am Dec 9, 2016 7:59am
B inside A
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,012
  • Dec 9, 2016 8:25am Dec 9, 2016 8:25am
Quoting Lock
B inside A
15:25+1GMT
C period inside B inside A. PreUS inside GB session. As GB session inside yesterday pit session: full balance environment. Last 3 pit sessions' values going lower. The rule in such situation is to go with any break from balance (if any) and if failure happens, the initial natural target is at the opposite side of balance.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,013
  • Dec 9, 2016 8:53am Dec 9, 2016 8:53am
Hi Lock,

I have a little question...again

How are you monitoring the Volume.

I mean what I'm reading and learning, Volume can be important to watch for if an intermediate, short-term or whatever-term auction comes to an end....

I looked to the indicator but I don't see how we can monitor it. The volume in the bottom is just a sum of all the auctions in a session. So how can we see volume is drying up...or not...

At the same time is the so called volume we get from our provider not the volume we searching for.... mhhhhh....?!

I hope you can give your light on this....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,014
  • Dec 11, 2016 4:31pm Dec 11, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, I have a little question...again How are you monitoring the Volume. I mean what I'm reading and learning, Volume can be important to watch for if an intermediate, short-term or whatever-term auction comes to an end.... I looked to the indicator but I don't see how we can monitor it. The volume in the bottom is just a sum of all the auctions in a session. So how can we see volume is drying up...or not... At the same time is the so called volume we get from our provider not the volume we searching for.... mhhhhh....?! I hope you can...

This is the main gap of the forex market. In indexes like s&p 500 at least you could have real contracts volume from NYSE. Futures' volumes are not reliable even for indexes. When I was working with windotrader blue anyway I used to evaluate bigger size futures' figures (filtering lower sizes) in order to find big volume node on the single period. Or, without filtering, I search for exhaustion during auctions. This approach was pretty good. With cable I can only evaluate the entire session based upon the futures' volume after the session end. Let's say a session auctioned all day long in one particular direction: I can then compare the final volume of the session with similar directional sessions in the near past just to evaluate how good this attempt was. Generally I do not give the same importance to rotational sessions' volumes because in such environments you will never know where the volume comes from (sellers or buyers?)

In any case, even if the tick value is totally unreliable on the lower scale, I always have a volume indicator at the bottom of my charts just to have a vague idea of what is going on. Plus, I always use composite tpo profiles because on the bigger scale the tpo are surely a good approximation of volumes.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,015
  • Edited 1:05am Dec 12, 2016 12:52am | Edited 1:05am
16/12/12 MONDAY 07:52+1GMT (edited untill 08:05)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Our monthly breakout is still questionable: a failure or not? Consequently monthly breakeven remains for now our main reference at 2673.
On weekly timeframe we currently are in a one timeframe higher for 3 weeks including current one after the break above inside week 11.20 with breakeven at 25122: and this is our second most important reference here.
On daily after a 5 days of one timeframing higher (starting with inside day 11.30) we then started a correction with 12.07 (or to be more precise with the final portion of 12.06) then morphed in a strict balance: Friday was infact an inside day.

Friday was a very weak day where all the major sessions left weak references: GB left a poor high at 26204, preUS left a poor high at 25942 while pit session left a poor high at 2592 and a poor low at 25517. I think that most of these weaknesses will need a correction before any further substantial movement.
Today Tokyo session is again in a full extremely narrow balance with poor high and poor low (tagging also Sydney low): the composite profile at 2587 is consequently pretty mature and a directional move is expected even if maybe we could experience a shake out before a consistent decision above or below.

Note that USDX has the possibility to eventually establish a good high above current weak "all time" high: this could influence cable obviously. Note that in this index we have an extremely rare 5 pass GB GAP around 100.35 level. Two things could happen here in my opinion: a correction of it and then the establishment of a good pit "all time" high, or viceversa.

If a directional move will happen in cable note that the nearest composite pocs are above at 2730 and below at 2417.

Finally note that current action is supported only by the DOUBLE PASS PIS GAP at 25254-25483: if filled by a pit session we could have continuation below that or a reaction just below it, upwards. About this double pass gap note that 25493 (just above the gap top) is an extremely important level as it is the half back of the entire major move from 09.22.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,016
  • Dec 12, 2016 11:08am Dec 12, 2016 11:08am
Quoting Lock
16/12/12 MONDAY 07:52+1GMT (edited untill 08:05) EARLY MORNING REPORT Our monthly breakout is still questionable: a failure or not? Consequently monthly breakeven remains for now our main reference at 2673. ...
18:08+1GMT Note the balance below the 2673 monthly breakeven and then the test above it.. Note also that E period was the last for GB.
We have an old pit minus development up to 2702. If we will have continuation above.
And remember that we underlign the 2730 higher major composite poc.
The biggest volume valley, if something will go wrong upside, is at 26962.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,017
  • Dec 12, 2016 11:16am Dec 12, 2016 11:16am
18:16 For continuation upside we do not want to fill the current E minus development down to 26707: because in this case we will not have a double distribution anymore.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,018
  • Dec 12, 2016 11:36am Dec 12, 2016 11:36am
18:36+1GMT
27115 is the half back of the major move downside from 09.06: so watch out there.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,019
  • Dec 12, 2016 11:39am Dec 12, 2016 11:39am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 18:08+1GMT Note ... The biggest volume valley, if something will go wrong upside, is at 26962.
Note the perfect tag of this valley by G period high.

PS: you could also have 26965 or similar. It depends upon your data provider.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,020
  • Dec 13, 2016 12:50am Dec 13, 2016 12:50am
16/12/13 TUESDAY 07:50+1GMT (edited untill 07:52)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday as easily predicted our main important level has been 2673 and btw note that tonight Tokyo session spent its entire action around this level as pit sessin did yesterday.
Yesterday pit session was not able to cross the volume valley at 26962/5 (or 2697 is almost equal: the importance is that the valley is there) and closed exactly at 2673, our monthly breakeven.

Now, yesterday GB made a final attempt upwards with a spike (base at 2612) that became our most important value (after the 2673) for upcoming GB session. Spike rules will apply: GB open above spike base or even above spike top could lead to a continuation upside, while a GB open below spkie base could instead underlign at least an initial rejection of yesterday test upside.

Yesterday pit session opened above Friday pit session leaving a new gap upside: now we have 2 pit session double pass gap below current price location. Furthermore Friday and Thursday pit sessions left downside ugly lows: Thursday a weak low at round 2550 while Friday even a poor low just above it at 25517. Carry this information forward.

Current Tokyo and Sydney sessions have both poor highs.
Ubi maior minor cessat
9 traders viewing now