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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,141
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:15pm Dec 8, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Looking for a D/W close under .0610 to feel more confident in it just being a squeeze. I stayed out of the spike and and waited for some Dovish confirmation from ECB. Positions at .0720 and .0660. Trying again. Looking for .044x and .02xx on Momentum play for Mid Term on another test of Floor at .050x;then, Long Term Leg to .96 to .92 for parity play.
Well done nice fills and good luck with them! I had limits @ 1.086x but price spiked up through them so fast they didn't get filled ...ah well, sometimes it also works in your favour . Be nice if price doesn't stray too far below shaded area on $ chart or could hold above for a while too
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,142
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:25pm Dec 8, 2016 3:25pm
Well done guys....just reading back posts.

Inline ECB but we have officially entering in the last stage of QE and the rate cycle in the EZ.

Important news as we have the flag post for trading qe end expectations ending in late 2017 which iy will also mark the end of the negative rate cycles....

Won't comment in the short term flow as i didn't trade it. For those in the mid term swing....same levels, same trades l, same all.

Here heading back to normal hours for tomorrow European opening. A bearish roll in the Euro but more importantly Dollar taking the driver seat for the rest of the year from the Asian open with choose your poison and 'roll' plays in Yen, Aud, Cad and to lesser extend Sterling...

sisse.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,143
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:55pm Dec 8, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting sisse
Well done guys....just reading back posts. Inline ECB but we have officially entering in the last stage of QE and the rate cycle in the EZ. Important news as we have the flag post for trading qe end expectations ending in late 2017 which iy will also mark the end of the negative rate cycles.... Won't comment in the short term flow as i didn't trade it. For those in the mid term swing....same levels, same trades l, same all. Here heading back to normal hours for tomorrow European opening. A bearish roll in the Euro but more importantly Dollar taking...
Jeez, if I had a $ for every time I'd wished I understood what you meant exactly by your Roll Plays I could give up this game and retire already! ...have read all the back post stuff but am no wiser ...any more snippets or clues greatly appreciated, from anyone
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,144
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:16pm Dec 8, 2016 4:16pm
Quoting sisse
Well done guys....just reading back posts. Inline ECB but we have officially entering in the last stage of QE and the rate cycle in the EZ. Important news as we have the flag post for trading qe end expectations ending in late 2017 which iy will also mark the end of the negative rate cycles.... Won't comment in the short term flow as i didn't trade it. For those in the mid term swing....same levels, same trades l, same all. Here heading back to normal hours for tomorrow European opening. A bearish roll in the Euro but more importantly...
You probably should give brief comments on the short term flow even though you didn't trade it as many members have asked . It has led to many questions and you're caught in the crossfire if I may say ! I have explained my view as many others did but all leads to you in this thread to cross the T's and dot the I's

Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Jeez, if I had a $ for every time I'd wished I understood what you meant exactly by your Roll Plays I could give up this game and retire already! ...have read all the back post stuff but am no wiser ...any more snippets or clues greatly appreciated, from anyone
It is when you enter a trade in 'calm waters' ie no news ahead to trigger knee jerk reactions or whatsoever wtf moves that could wipe out your SL if the trade is properly mapped until the next major movers and shakers that would according to your expectations/map lead to the chosen TP target . in other words, everytime we clear an event that shakes the market , should be back to normal flows and clean moves so it is a safer entry .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #146,145
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:44pm Dec 8, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} You probably should give brief comments on the short term flow even though you didn't trade it as many members have asked . It has led to many questions and you're caught in the crossfire if I may say ! I have explained my view as many others did but all leads to you in this thread to cross the T's and dot the I's {quote} It is when you enter a trade in 'calm waters' ie no news ahead to trigger knee jerk reactions or whatsoever wtf moves that could wipe out your SL if the trade is properly mapped until the next major movers and...
Thanks for that. I just know there's not going to be an easy quick answer to this and am not expecting one either of course. However, after any market shaking event there's always going to be that period of calm afterwards but sisse only ever uses that term relatively seldom in a very few instances. Ok, so if I were eu bearish beforehand and the ECB risk event is now cleared (which also only added further to my already bearish eu view), then if there were to be a "roll play" called in eu for example, it might suggest that now during this calm period would be the time to short again already, as it might just continue straight down without the usual retrace? (I'm also delving into what I've previously retained from earlier "roll plays" here).

Appreciate the input, it's still a jigsaw puzzle for me but every extra piece helps build the picture!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,146
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:53pm Dec 8, 2016 4:53pm
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} ...I'll just re-post here Ooops possibly wrong file, an older one, l gotta find the up to date one .. This is the correct one {file}
Thanks CommercialB.

I have uploaded this to google drive. you can edit it directly there in future if you like (or anyone else can edit as well).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #146,147
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:00pm Dec 8, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting stt
{quote} Thanks CommercialB. I have uploaded this to google drive. you can edit it directly there in future if you like (or anyone else can edit as well). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Wasn't familiar with that and just had a look ..Cool! So how does that work, anyone can change that or what? ..or does each person only save to their own personal online version?
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,148
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:03pm Dec 8, 2016 5:03pm
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Wasn't familiar with that and just had a look ..Cool! So how does that work, anyone can change that or what? ..or does each person only save to their own personal online version?
we can set it up anyways we like. right now i have setup so that anyone can edit it (it has version history so we can go back if someone edits by mistake). If this becomes a problem, we can set it up so only few assigned people can edit.

Lets play with it and adjust as needed.

Thanks
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #146,149
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:11pm Dec 8, 2016 5:11pm
Quoting stt
{quote} we can set it up anyways we like. right now i have setup so that anyone can edit it (it has version history so we can go back if someone edits by mistake). If this becomes a problem, we can set it up so only few assigned people can edit. Lets play with it and adjust as needed. Thanks
Nice one! Just curious, apart from the obvious advantage of it being accessible from any computer no matter where you might be at a given time, are there any other benefits? cause it's probably advisable just to keep your own updated at home for yourself too I guess?

Edit: Oh I got one, in case you miss any updates on the thread there'd be a chance someone might've updated the online version already!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,150
  • Dec 8, 2016 8:21pm Dec 8, 2016 8:21pm
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Nice one! Just curious, apart from the obvious advantage of it being accessible from any computer no matter where you might be at a given time, are there any other benefits? cause it's probably advisable just to keep your own updated at home for yourself too I guess? Edit: Oh I got one, in case you miss any updates on the thread there'd be a chance someone might've updated the online version already!
Exactly. this way people can update the sheet and everyone can follow. When someone wants to see what is the current outlook, they can just refer to the sheet.

You can also keep your own copy just for yourself with your notes etc.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #146,151
  • Dec 8, 2016 8:39pm Dec 8, 2016 8:39pm
Quoting sisse
..'roll' plays in Yen, Aud, Cad and to lesser extend Sterling... sisse.
I'm actually confused with this "roll in play" call! My understanding of roll in play is opposite to the direction at NY close. For these pairs, USDJPY closed green/up inline with the short-term buy outlook; AUDUSD closed bearish inline with short-term buy $US outlook; USDCAD closed bearish inline with the short-term buy Oil outlook! For the sterling, we are in Neutral outlook. Any clarification,please? Thanks in advance!
  • #146,152
  • Edited Dec 9, 2016 5:40am Dec 8, 2016 9:36pm | Edited Dec 9, 2016 5:40am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I'm actually confused with this "roll in play" call! My understanding of roll in play is opposite to the direction at NY close. For these pairs, USDJPY closed green/up inline with the short-term buy outlook; AUDUSD closed bearish inline with short-term buy $US outlook; USDCAD closed bearish inline with the short-term buy Oil outlook! For the sterling, we are in Neutral outlook. Any clarification,please? Thanks in advance!
I was asking about this myself earlier and dug out something goosebone posted a while back where he was quoting directly from sisse...

"Given there is no official close in FX. 'Roll' used as per reference in spot FX for the daily close at NY. "Roll in play" it just my own coined term to highlight there is a Trade opp on the close (D.W/M/Q). --> In practical terms a 'roll' play usually shows up at the end of pullbacks/begging of continuation moves and is made in the very calm waters (the opposite of a news trade) where most of unaware traders can't even smell it. --> It doesn't necessarily mean that action is taking place at the exact closing range but rather the opposite:..."

So my understanding of this would be that it doesn't necessarily have to be a change of direction but can be a resumption again of the original direction after a retrace.
Am still trying to "get" this concept myself so can't really help here at all much

EDIT: PS could you confirm that you have sisse's current outlook for US$ as short term Buy please, I only had long term Neutral and was missing the rest, thanks.
EDIT2: Had a typo above, meant short term US$ Buy instead of Sell previously, is corrected now
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #146,153
  • Dec 9, 2016 12:39am Dec 9, 2016 12:39am
Quoting sisse
Won't comment in the short term flow as i didn't trade it. For those in the mid term swing....same levels, same trades l, same all.
I don't think the short term flow was the most surprising this week considering we were in short term outlook: neutral. I just want to ask if this is still the case?
  • #146,154
  • Dec 9, 2016 2:13am Dec 9, 2016 2:13am
Quoting SorinAQ
{quote} I don't think the short term flow was the most surprising this week considering we were in short term outlook: neutral. I just want to ask if this is still the case?
No it is not the case. We are in short term sell.

@STT has uploaded @commercialb nice spreadsheet with outlooks to googledrive. It shows short term sell. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
That it is sell outlook does not mean that we can sell anyplace. Look for cheap tickets within the range that we are trading if scaling in is wanted.

Quoting Earleone
Will not try to make an complete analyse here for ECB. But some bits with my view I post . I will play shorts from 1.082X 1.085X 1.095X with sellstop orders 10 pips below when/if this levels are touched and with SL 20 to 30 pips and tp1 level for 1/3 of positions at 1.059X. If we come up to flip area on my chart ( not expected ) I will probably do the same there but will need to analyse the reason during conference. Expectation is ligth extension of QE . ( soft Tampering ) As Sisse write. I am to weak in a deep FA analyze. Will not even try,...
TP1 reached . Was a few pips to low to get closed directly in the kneejerk in connection with the conference but smooth easy ride and target was reached during AS. Was in a moment thinking to change TP1 to 1.061x but did not do. 1.059X was valid.
This trade had actually a R:R close to 1:10 if closed out totally at my TP1.

Again BIG THANK YOU to Sisse that educate us, give us the cookbook, give us the training live. Understand more and more. But much more to learn and try to understand especially on the FA part.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,155
  • Dec 9, 2016 2:21am Dec 9, 2016 2:21am
Quoting stt
{quote} Exactly. this way people can update the sheet and everyone can follow. When someone wants to see what is the current outlook, they can just refer to the sheet. You can also keep your own copy just for yourself with your notes etc.
Yep, exactly what we needed. Seeing 5 people reading the spreadsheet at the moment, and it's reasonably calm over here. Definitely bookmarking this for future reference. I'm sure a lot of people will be using this. Thanks stt and especially CommercialB for the efforts to get all this info bundled in one location.

PS you can indeed download a current copy from google spreadsheets to google drive or your computer's hard drive in case you want an offline copy.
  • #146,156
  • Dec 9, 2016 3:33am Dec 9, 2016 3:33am
Hi Guys,

I am recently discovered this thread and would like to get up to speed by reading sisse's posts where he explains everything. I am scrolling in this thread but i am having a hard time to find the page where the educational posts from him are starting. Any of you guys have a the right page number to begin with? Or the month and year i should look in?
Maybe someone already made a pdf with a collection of his posts?

Thanks in advance,
Nik
  • #146,157
  • Dec 9, 2016 4:26am Dec 9, 2016 4:26am
Quoting Sitting duck
Hi Guys, I am recently discovered this thread and would like to get up to speed by reading sisse's posts where he explains everything. I am scrolling in this thread but i am having a hard time to find the page where the educational posts from him are starting. Any of you guys have a the right page number to begin with? Or the month and year i should look in? Maybe someone already made a pdf with a collection of his posts? Thanks in advance, Nik
You can click on his nickname and then select previous posted posts from his profile page which will filter it out for you.
  • #146,158
  • Dec 9, 2016 6:11am Dec 9, 2016 6:11am
Past symetrical patterns tend to perform symetrical again in nearby future more often than not. Just a heads up. Most likely we are heading with this one into FED. In either case Weekly and Monthly have both already path set on most likely outcome. It just need prints of facts of higher macros and perhaps technical floop on meeting would add fuel to fire. In either case micros are the key to position in those flows.

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The one to track on possible expansion of bearish leg is also gold, currently already unlocked the test of key mid term support 1160, and then possible break with correct larger macros.

On DE30 we reached target 1 yesterday, extended large target is valid on 11700 and currently has a valid path to there (no mid term macros counted in)
  • #146,159
  • Dec 9, 2016 6:56am Dec 9, 2016 6:56am
What happened here? ...find it quite strange
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  • #146,160
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:30am Dec 9, 2016 7:30am
Quoting dcavar
What happened here? ...find it quite strange {image}
:s account got hacked? Strange indeed... had a good track record so not sure why he would do this.
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