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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,101
  • Dec 7, 2016 9:31pm Dec 7, 2016 9:31pm
What to Watch for in European Central Bank Decision

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...-bank-decision
  • #146,102
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:34pm Dec 7, 2016 10:34pm
ECB and the Future of QE

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=621110
  • #146,103
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:53pm Dec 7, 2016 10:53pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Curious about this one... looking for GBP strength or rather USD weakness for the upcoming months?
was just looking for a 80-100 pip scalp...but missed the entry..looking for something else now...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #146,104
  • Dec 8, 2016 1:51am Dec 8, 2016 1:51am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} On a day light in data and any significant market moving events, such as today, a big option expiry can take on significance for very short-term players in FX, acting as a magnet for spot (EURUSD traded at 1.0746 at 2:57 London time, which was 3 minutes before the main options expiration of 10:00 New York). You will often hear terms such as "the market is long gamma", which broadly means the banks are net long expiring options and commercials or other entities are net short, sitting on the other side of these trades. Banks love being long...
You seem to be very knowledgeable in the field of options and I must say that I've heard claims about the attraction of spot price to option expiry levels before, but I rarely saw any detailed explanation like yours, so hats off to you for that. Some years ago I tried to find and trade correlation between expiry and spot fx and failed to consistently gain an edge and dropped the idea. With these new details I can try to revisit this idea and start looking for solid evidence that there is indeed a correlation. That would be a great tool in the box to have, keeping in mind that this apparently needs a relatively empty calendar and a certain proximity to the expiry levels.

Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} was just looking for a 80-100 pip scalp...but missed the entry..looking for something else now...
Ok thanks.
  • #146,105
  • Dec 8, 2016 2:59am Dec 8, 2016 2:59am
whilst there is certainly some resistance in this area, and I don't know how it will be resolved, looking further up, 1.0950 looks like a sneaky level....I'll try some shorts there if we reach....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 39 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #146,106
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:43am Dec 8, 2016 5:43am
That was it for the European session, with European equities struggling to shake out the highs particularly in the EZ via ECB QE announcement today. On the rest of the board main markets sidelined until ECB is clear (major potential play meeting today).

Euro extending the highs with markets aligned for a soft ECB QE tampering decision. Simple and clear maps for today. Mute dovish ECB and will see parity by Q1 2017. Soft tampering is buy the rumour sell the news with pretty much all the range already cleared. Anything else more hawkish like that unlock 1.097x in no time ....

Still with limited access to post and time from here and heading back to the Airport at that time so like last week.
Inviting /Challenging @goosebone (or anyone who want to jump in) to make the traditional call for the ECB:

 

  1. Before the fact. TA, FA and flows
  2. The live one is very hard and tricky but if someone one to take the plunge for the sake of live analysis go ahead
  3. The end of conference knee jerk reaction with the flow
  4. and The wrap up after the fact.


....GL all

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,107
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:52am Dec 8, 2016 5:52am
Thanks for the confidence sisse. Got to pass this time though as I'll be on the road working from now through ECB.
  • #146,108
  • Dec 8, 2016 6:16am Dec 8, 2016 6:16am
Will not try to make an complete analyse here for ECB. But some bits with my view I post .

I will play shorts from 1.082X 1.085X 1.095X with sellstop orders 10 pips below when/if this levels are touched and with SL 20 to 30 pips and tp1 level for 1/3 of positions at 1.059X. If we come up to flip area on my chart ( not expected ) I will probably do the same there but will need to analyse the reason during conference.

Expectation is ligth extension of QE . ( soft Tampering ) As Sisse write. I am to weak in a deep FA analyze. Will not even try, Just the big picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 38 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,109
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:01am Dec 8, 2016 7:01am
Quoting Earleone
Will not try to make an complete analyse here for ECB. But some bits with my view I post . I will play shorts from 1.082X 1.085X 1.095X with sellstop orders 10 pips below when/if this levels are touched and with SL 20 to 30 pips and tp1 level for 1/3 of positions at 1.059X. If we come up to flip area on my chart ( not expected ) I will probably do the same there but will need to analyse the reason during conference. Expectation is ligth extension of QE . ( soft Tampering ) As Sisse write. I am to weak in a deep FA analyze. Will not even try,...
Got filled at 1.0840 and 1.0822 ( both on the way down at the spike. ) Currently at 1.074X level . Set SL to BE and repeat if spike up during conference.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,110
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:03am Dec 8, 2016 7:03am
@Earleone ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,111
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:19am Dec 8, 2016 7:19am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Got filled at 1.0840 and 1.0822 ( both on the way down at the spike. ) Currently at 1.074X level . Set SL to BE and repeat if spike up during conference.
Great position! Good luck. Let's hope the conference doesn't bring any surprises to jeopardize your position and allows for a smooth ride to lower lows.
  • #146,112
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:28am Dec 8, 2016 7:28am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=621414 ....

ECB Extends Bond-Buying at Reduced Pace Until End of Next Year
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,113
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:28am Dec 8, 2016 7:28am
Quoting primejarvis
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=621414 .... ECB Extends Bond-Buying at Reduced Pace Until End of Next Year
Rumours (see forexfactory news section) say that market has 18mths extension priced in, now only 9 months extension.
  • #146,114
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:33am Dec 8, 2016 7:33am
QE extends with 60 Billions euro until December 2017
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,115
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:34am Dec 8, 2016 7:34am
Quoting Earleone
QE extends with 60 Billions euro until December 2017
Yeah, also took away my fear: if situation worse == extnesion both in size and duration!
  • #146,116
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:40am Dec 8, 2016 7:40am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Yeah, also took away my fear: if situation worse == extnesion both in size and duration!
Very dowish overall so far .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,117
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:40am Dec 8, 2016 7:40am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Rumours (see forexfactory news section) say that market has 18mths extension priced in, now only 9 months extension.
purely rumors ....

where the hell is the live feed for todays meet....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,118
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:44am Dec 8, 2016 7:44am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} purely rumors .... where the hell is the live feed for todays meet....
Was looking for that feed too. Are currently looking at Bloomberg online .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,119
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:45am Dec 8, 2016 7:45am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} purely rumors .... where the hell is the live feed for todays meet....
I'm playing the bloomberg stream with VLC: http://btv-i.akamaihd.net/hls/live/2...s/P1/M240.m3u8

Q&A at the moment.

*edit: can also be viewed on the website of course.

Draghi just said: * there is no question about tapering!
  • #146,120
  • Edited 11:31am Dec 8, 2016 7:53am | Edited 11:31am
Extension=dovish but there's tapering of the rate of purchases in there too. Mixed dovish bag. It's still dovish, whatever it takes policy even with taper since much/all of that was baked in. Euro equities like it right now. EU high and low set now before FED I imagine. A test and rejection of 0520/0505 level before then wouldn't surprise although soft and medium rare stops around there have already been consumed so I wouldn't expect another big bounce. Short squeeze has Panned out much as NorthTrader described it with ECB reaction being the last push up to complete it. TAwise I had my eyes on the number of the beast before the fact. At the moment that's behind us so I'm somewhat focused on closes south of 0625 but really any recent ST buying has been broken between the daily candle on the 4th and today so seems to me only 505 down to big MT support at 46x is the real deal.
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