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AUD/USD

  • #100,161
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:29pm Dec 7, 2016 7:29pm
sold at daily R1.
  • #100,162
  • Dec 7, 2016 8:19pm Dec 7, 2016 8:19pm
I would say it is the trend now for traders to short the AUD. That's fine because its a zero sum game here. The thing that i want to point out is that there are so many bullish movements in this pair, thus the question will be, is it really feasible to short this pair and why are you shorting this pair?

Are you shorting this pair because it is part of your trading plan or strategy? Or are you shorting this pair because it is the 'in' thing now and trendy to do so because the banks are calling for it.

This is the daily chart, till now i could not find any reasons to short this pair, no idea why are traders still shorting it.
Plan the trade, trade the plan. Don't listen to hearsay. Coffee-shop talk will never work in the markets.
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  • #100,163
  • Dec 8, 2016 12:14am Dec 8, 2016 12:14am
The Australian economy is lagging the global economy by a least three years. As the global economies growth continues the Australian economy will remain stagnate, banks will be forced to lift interest rates to maintain margin, Australian GDP and cpi will remain low, with the potential risk of 2 quarters of negative growth resulting in a recession.

Its not trendy, is 101 economics.
  • #100,164
  • Dec 8, 2016 12:31am Dec 8, 2016 12:31am
Aud is rising with ore. Nothing to with anything else other than this.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ir...r-high-2016-12
  • #100,165
  • Dec 8, 2016 1:15am Dec 8, 2016 1:15am
Quoting SkyrEk
I would say it is the trend now for traders to short the AUD. That's fine because its a zero sum game here. The thing that i want to point out is that there are so many bullish movements in this pair, thus the question will be, is it really feasible to short this pair and why are you shorting this pair? Are you shorting this pair because it is part of your trading plan or strategy? Or are you shorting this pair because it is the 'in' thing now and trendy to do so because the banks are calling for it. This is the daily chart, till now i could not...
I can find a few technical reasons to short this pair.

Very often after a strong move the retracement finds difficulty breaking thru the 38.2 level. Clearly 75 is going to be a massive hurdle for anyone going long. In addition, the 200EMA has yet to be pierced. IMO, the risk is to the downside.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,166
  • Dec 8, 2016 1:36am Dec 8, 2016 1:36am
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} The big target simbols are just indicators showing the latest HH or LL
Noted with thanks.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #100,167
  • Edited 2:57am Dec 8, 2016 2:35am | Edited 2:57am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I can find a few technical reasons to short this pair. Very often after a strong move the retracement finds difficulty breaking thru the 38.2 level. Clearly 75 is going to be a massive hurdle for anyone going long. In addition, the 200EMA has yet to be pierced. IMO, the risk is to the downside. {image}
i agree with your technical views.

on a side note: dont get fooled by all the .75 rejection candles happening on all timeframes.
trust me when i say await a spike upwards before price heads down(prob at US claims/ISM - irregardless of data results AU will still strengthen), to be safe, a spike to ~.755 as most stops are now above .75. banks have to clear retail short positionings off their book before they themselves can short it into the Fed meet.
  • #100,168
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:06am Dec 8, 2016 3:06am
see if we close below 83/2 in the next 55 minutes..
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  • #100,169
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:23am Dec 8, 2016 3:23am
Quoting Bicarus
{quote} i agree with your technical views. on a side note: dont get fooled by all the .75 rejection candles happening on all timeframes. trust me when i say await a spike upwards before price heads down(prob at US claims/ISM - irregardless of data results AU will still strengthen), to be safe, a spike to ~.755 as most stops are now above .75. banks have to clear retail short positionings off their book before they themselves can short it into the Fed meet.
Agree.

I have shorts pending all the way up to 7580 with stops above 76 for a longer term position into the new year
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,170
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:23am Dec 8, 2016 3:23am
Quoting redalert
Aud is rising with ore. Nothing to with anything else other than this. http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ir...r-high-2016-12
Correct and this will turn shortly
  • #100,171
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:43am Dec 8, 2016 3:43am
Volumes go lower on retracement.
If it breaks that, it will go for 0.73.
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  • #100,172
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:09am Dec 8, 2016 4:09am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Agree. I have shorts pending all the way up to 7580 with stops above 76 for a longer term position into the new year

I agree with you as well. Just that i will wait till there are signs of prices turning bearish before shorting this pair. In fact i am more than happy to short this pair because when it falls, it will fall swiftly as compared to going up. I will hold my longs for now until probably mid .75, take profit and wait for the next trade setup to appear.

Cheers!
  • #100,173
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:12am Dec 8, 2016 4:12am
Yes sure, you are right. We need a valid breakout as well.
Buyers are still here.
  • #100,174
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:21am Dec 8, 2016 4:21am
looks more and more likely to break higher, every move down is completely countered by a steady move higher...
  • #100,175
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:26am Dec 8, 2016 4:26am
Buyers are stopped at 0.75.
So it is creating a nice triangle pressure.
Battle must finish soon.
  • #100,176
  • Edited 5:31am Dec 8, 2016 4:34am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting Don96
looks more and more likely to break higher, every move down is completely countered by a steady move higher...
unless? - some m5 candle closes below may be a trigger...

someone does not want this thing below 90...
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  • #100,177
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:12am Dec 8, 2016 5:12am
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  • #100,178
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:40am Dec 8, 2016 5:40am
Quoting Don96
{quote} unless? - some m5 candle closes below may be a trigger... someone does not want this thing below 90... {image}
Ascending Triangles usually break up... not always however,

its either going towards 0.7680ish or 0.73xx again.. (again it looks more likely north)


m5 and h4

watch for the second m5 close below/above... 90 seems to be the number for the downside... anything closing below it is countered by the next m5
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  • #100,179
  • Edited 6:30am Dec 8, 2016 5:58am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Ascending Triangles usually break up... not always however, its either going towards 0.7680ish or 0.73xx again.. (again it looks more likely north) m5 and h4 watch for the second m5 close below/above... 90 seems to be the number for the downside... anything closing below it is countered by the next m5 {image} {image}
m5 like so?

watch to see if it filters through the larger TF

m30 close in 7 mins may give clearer break... followed by 1 hour should the m30 break

And there you have it... lovely prevention there by someone... m30 not going to close below consecutively... AU following EU (HA it closed at 07491 - i expect a break north more likely now)
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  • #100,180
  • Dec 8, 2016 6:42am Dec 8, 2016 6:42am
Quoting redalert
Aud is rising with ore. Nothing to with anything else other than this. http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ir...r-high-2016-12
good point
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