DislikedHi NorthTrader, By reading your post i get the feeling that you think that the institutional traders (smart money) are using the the retail traders (dumb money) as liquidity...Ignored
You reap what you sow.
The Really Useless System 25 replies
Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies
The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies
DislikedHi NorthTrader, By reading your post i get the feeling that you think that the institutional traders (smart money) are using the the retail traders (dumb money) as liquidity...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I have never understood the (arguably pretty archaic) argument that a large area of land sparsely populated should have the same electoral weight as a smaller area densely populated. Since people, not land are what's being governed, why should land area come into play at all? ....Ignored
DislikedPersonally I'd rather buy a dip in cable, as I have no idea where support is in the EUR....I'm gonna work some 1.2560 bids in sterling and call it a week...not seeing anything else to do really...Ignored
Disliked@seemore Do you question the composition of the US Senate where each state --no matter the population-- gets 2 Senators with equal votes to every other state? Yes I do. ...Ignored
Disliked{quote} At least you are consistent! The states were the equivalent of sovereign nations when they obtained independence, so you have the background. I think the sense of the electoral college is that it prevents regional imbalances of power based on population. Personally, I would not be opposed to a change, it just needs to be done sufficiently in advance of an election so the rules are set and the playing field is even when the race is run. I think this topic has veered far enough from the forex thread, so I'll stop cluttering now.Ignored
DislikedThe main goal of "smart money" is to get in and out at the best possible price, which unfortunately causes maximum pain to the rest of us. They know where most of us put our stops, and they know where the breakout traders are lurking. Because of this it's relatively cheap and easy for them to run the stops and sell all the orders that dumb money is buying (in a short squeeze). .....Ignored
Dislikedcould do with some help/explanation if anyone has the time, quiet around here now but any insight helps... im after explanation of Big option expires and how they affect Fx price.. im with the 10am/3pm london UK usual expiry time... what i don't totally get is how they affect the price... for example, there was an expiry today, 7th December at 1.0750 for just over 1 billion USD... price at 3pm UK time (10 AM US) was at around 1.0720... i take it the option didn't cash out? my question is, obviously there must be people of equal/larger size on the...Ignored
DislikedThere's a whole world of exotic options in the currencies that I know nothing about. No retail access, so no interest. How did you know about the one you mentioned? These are not exchange-traded, so there's no reliable information available to the average trader....Ignored
Disliked{quote} On a day light in data and any significant market moving events, such as today, a big option expiry can take on significance for very short-term players in FX, acting as a magnet for spot (EURUSD traded at 1.0746 at 2:57 London time, which is 3 minutes before the main options expiration of 10:00 New York). You will often hear terms such as "the market is long gamma", which broadly means the banks are net long expiring options and commercials or other entities are net short, sitting on the other side of these trades. Banks love being long...Ignored
Disliked{quote} okay cheers for that, im still a little lost, but clearer... here is an image of expiry dates/size on pairs this week... what is the significance of those 2 EU - trades ... essentially $5 billion pushing us at least below 1.0600 on friday?,,... (net $1.8 billion below 1.06...) so if we start friday above 1.08.... there will be all of those expiry fighting for the 3pm fix? {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} A lot can happen tomorrow with the ECB, meaning the market won't be placing any significance on the 1.06 strikes expiring on Friday, unless spot is trading within, say, 40 pips of 1.06 on Friday morning, following a low volatility late session in NY and a similar theme in the Asian session, then one can expect 1.06 to act as a magnet...Ignored
Disliked{quote} so if around 1.07 for example, there is going to be a push to get to 1.06 or 1.08? - only one would win if either do? :/Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yes, it is confusing, and of course none of us know for sure what exactly the smart players are up to. In the short term they are both buying and selling in order to get price where they want it. But they are always thinking ahead and whether they want to be net long or net short the market. My guess is that they are net short on EUR.USD but started taking some off at the lows in order to a) book profit and b) move price higher so they can sell it again at a better price. In doing this they give confidence to bulls, which helps them move...Ignored