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The Really Useless System 25 replies

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The Really Useless Thread

Quoting primejarvis
{quote} What I believe is that euro is not being moved via monetary policy ... If I remember well draghi was giving a lot of pressure on the fiscal policy rather than monetary ... And if we go via monetary we will start an uptrend direction which I guess will start after the inauguration of us election .... Just a thought
My opinion is generally the same it was weeks ago- in that there's nothing to be seen until after FED. ECB is cooked in, FED is cooked in (in my opinion). So that until we have a new fundamental trigger for expectations (ECB tapering, FED hike timeline 2017, TRUMP killing trade (he's still largely a ?), Brexit hitting a milestone, etc) there's only range and technical plays to be had.

Perhaps in regards to actual trading to make money, we are over thinking the fundamental aspect in that we just need to wait to confirm our current expectations before looking for MORE expectations or even changing our current expectations based on technical moves
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} My opinion is generally the same it was weeks ago- in that there's nothing to be seen until after FED. ECB is cooked in, FED is cooked in (in my opinion). So that until we have a new fundamental trigger for expectations (ECB tapering, FED hike timeline 2017, TRUMP killing trade (he's still largely a ?), Brexit hitting a milestone, etc) there's only range and technical plays to be had. Perhaps in regards to actual trading to make money, we are over thinking the fundamental aspect in that we just need to wait to confirm our current expectations...
Indeed .... And I personally think that everything is being cooked in the background until something extraordinary does comes from the fa side ....
Re-Incarnated
When you said technical, what technical aspect triggered that move? EUR opened lower due to the exit poll numbers and it went lower when the result of no vote came out. From there it moved up some 250 pips. Is this completely technical?
Logically it should go down due to the bad news, my reasoning is as time passed people might started thinking it is not as bad as it sounds and it is not easy for Italy to move out of Euro hence the move up? may be?stupid reasoning??
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I don't know. Who does? It seems to me, you wont often find a fundamental move surprising a technical trader. "ECB has exploded, EU sells to 0" wouldn't surprise a technical trader. He/she will say, "oh, that's and obvious fundamental catastrophe of course that happened". It's easier however to find a fundamental trader surprised by a technical move. "Multi year (not H1, D, Weekly..YEARLY) low protected on first attempt at breaking after unprecedented 800 pip fall over larger extent FED)
Lot of confusion around the short squeeze that happened . Some say it's Euro* move others say it's a USD move , mixed opinions about the timing of the move .
In a nutshell :

  1. Dec hike is fully priced in and market is already pricing 2017 rate path expectations
  2. Euro sellers are positionned at certain levels/points of control if I may say most likely real/smart money on mid/long term swings
  3. Market is heavily positionned to the sell side so when smart money stepped in around 1.050x , the rally was fuled by the soft sellers forcing them to close their positions adding to the upward pressure . That's the definition of a short squeeze !
  4. Price action is a powerful tool to detect that a short squeeze is triggered and manage risk at the right time
  5. ECB is expected to be almost unchanged if not annoucing Taper so that's one side of the equation for a bullish bias on euro* but could it overcome USD pressure via Fed because in that case we get a wide chop zone not a skyrocket in euro as some are suggesting . For reference , check Dxy/euro correlation !

Get Rich or Die Tryin
Quoting chester123
except for ECB. what my brain really does not get is this: after trump equities rally - ok there were some arguments for that, but after Italy vote - european and mostly italien equities are in a manic up flow (ok, extending qe by ECB). however, bunds are moving up (not the move expected with extension of QE) and E/U moving up too (as well not logical).
My reading is : Markets expectations for Italian referendum were a soft No, we got a hard No, but President Mattarella didn't call for elections (as it was also expected, whatever the result, as it would have opened pandoras box). Only this could have triggered Risk-off. So after the first pavlovian response, Markets have just simply sold the news fact on Monday.

Quoting seemoore
ECB scenarios on E/U. 1. QE extended. They did this last December and E/U went up that day. At the time, people said it was due to the 'free money/helicopter money' effect on equities. Any reason that wouldn't happen this time? 2. Tapering. It seems consensus is that tapering will cause E/U to go up b/c monetary tightening--supply/demand--with shortening of supply. 3. Rates change. I don't see anyone projecting any change here. Another rate cut seems it would lead to an E/U drop, and vice versa, but there has always been media discussion about rate...
Also imo
4. QE extension (from 3 to 6 months) AND allusions to begin to taper before the end of 2017.
(Actually I think this is what Markets are expecting)
I think we will know if that was a short squeeze or not in the next few days. If it retraces back all the way to yesterday's low and start to move down then it was a squeeze else it is not??? thoughts?
Quoting Xxavier
When you said technical, what technical aspect triggered that move? EUR opened lower due to the exit poll numbers and it went lower when the result of no vote came out. From there it moved up some 250 pips. Is this completely technical? Logically it should go down due to the bad news, my reasoning is as time passed people might started thinking it is not as bad as it sounds and it is not easy for Italy to move out of Euro hence the move up? may be?stupid reasoning?? {quote}
Quoting hoom
Lot of confusion around the short squeeze that happened . Some say it's Euro* move others say it's a USD move , mixed opinions about the timing of the move . In a nutshell : Dec hike is fully priced in and market is already pricing 2017 rate path expectations Euro sellers are positionned at certain levels/points of control if I may say most likely real/smart money on mid/long term swings Market is heavily positionned to the sell side so when smart money stepped in around 1.050x , the rally was fuled by the soft sellers forcing them to close their...
Good explanation on short squeeze.... Right now investors or smart money are not preparing for expectations on fed hike path for 2017 because more worried about trumps policies ... Smart Money very well knows what fed say and what they deliver .... Just a thought
Re-Incarnated
Quoting PayTheLimit
high of the day for the VIX was 152.48 on monday, and 172.79 the following morning.....VXO actually, back then it was all about the OEX...
it won't be a bad idea to have something long vol running pretty much non stop I'd say starting in January. You can just buy cheap calendars every week, so you'd always have a free long call running. The markets will be waiting for the tweet that starts WWIII....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting chester123
except for ECB. what my brain really does not get is this: after trump equities rally - ok there were some arguments for that, but after Italy vote - european and mostly italien equities are in a manic up flow (ok, extending qe by ECB). however, bunds are moving up (not the move expected with extension of QE) and E/U moving up too (as well not logical). Im just saying that I do not get the logic behind it. so is there some congnitive disonance and some market is gonna be caught wrong or what?
Hello first post and got to say really enjoying the discussion between you all.

I will also like to try understand the logic too.....and can it be that the market is concerned with the Trump inflationary program and the capacity of the economy to withstand the rate hikes path and slow the economic recovery and the Ecb seeing a recovery on the way albeit political risk on the horizon so starting the tapering talk because if the US slows due to higher rates/stronger Currency giving Europe a better chance with the weaker currency to become more competitive? Smart money trying to position for 2017?

Probably wrong.....eagerly awaiting to see what Sisse has to say.....
Quietly sitting in the back........
Quoting The Fool
{quote}You can just buy cheap calendars every week, so you'd always have a free long call running.
Why not just buy some let's say $12 Jan 2017 Calls?
Quoting sisse
Sadly, I agree with your comment. it's getting harder and harder to keep faith and comprehend how stupid humanity is to keep blindly doing the same past bloody [and I mean literraly] mistakes... sisse
There you have it. http://time.com/4590994/popular-vote...alflow_twitter

What the fuck is going on over there?
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} what you think ecb is going to taper or not .... do you know how to put a yes or no vote poll here ....? we should put it if possible not only before ecb but before every major event .....
Here you go: https://goo.gl/SJHsx3
Quoting Schmidt
Why not just buy some let's say $12 Jan 2017 Calls?
calls in what? In a calendar spread, I am buying calls, and also selling calls at the same strike in front of those - this lowers the cost of the long calls. I don't use VIX for spread trading, but VXX and UVXY.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} There you have it. http://time.com/4590994/popular-vote...alflow_twitter What the fuck is going on over there?
Deleted my response. I grow tired of this argument. lets just make fun of them instead...

Millennial poster child right here ladies and gentlemen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wF7JDuwSOqU
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} There you have it. http://time.com/4590994/popular-vote...alflow_twitter What the fuck is going on over there?
Reason for Electoral College vote rather than popular vote.
Trump won the "country" by a landslide.
Attached Image
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Deleted my response. I grow tired of this argument. lets just make fun of them instead... Millennial poster child right here ladies and gentlemen... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wF7JDuwSOqU
Thanks for the laugh and srt for the explanation.
My question was directed at the intensity with which otherwise quite obedient media outlets are attacking the result/the predident elect himself.

My idea, concerning the "65 million" future tax-evaders (putting the money into a spare account doesn't count), is the following: Grab any unemployed, ol white male and promote them to IRS-enforcers. Many problems solved for him.
From the outside, all this looks upside-down and kind of like a witch-hunt.
Quoting The Fool
{quote} calls in what? In a calendar spread, I am buying calls, and also selling calls at the same strike in front of those - this lowers the cost of the long calls. I don't use VIX for spread trading, but VXX and UVXY.
I thought you guys were talking about a possible huge crash...like in 1987. If VIX should ever go to 150+ as it theoretically did in 87 , you would make a fortune. Why limit your possible profits with a Calendar Spread? Makes no sense to me.
VIX will not go to 150 next year...but why not to 25-30-40.....
Quoting srt
{quote} Reason for Electoral College vote rather than popular vote. Trump won the "country" by a landslide. {image}
Still doesn't make sense in my book. Who cares about square miles? A piece of land doesn't care who owns it, people do. What if only 1 person lived in each of the 3084 counties, does that make their vote magically weigh more because they live in more square miles / person? Apparently now in the US that seems normal. I don't get it. Nevertheless I wouldn't have voted for Trump but the system in itself is nothing less than a joke.
Quoting Schmidt
{quote} I thought you guys were talking about a possible huge crash...like in 1987. If VIX should ever go to 150+ as it theoretically did in 87 , you would make a fortune. Why limit your possible profits with a Calendar Spread? Makes no sense to me. VIX will not go to 150 next year...but why not to 25-30-40.....
calendars reduce to long calls if the front short option expires worthless....maybe you should read up on spreads if you're interested.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Uneventful day across the board in a soft day across most markets. We have pretty much set high/lows of the month in Equities, Commodities and Currencies including Dollar and Euro. ECB/W combo will settle it in stone.

Not much to update with same levels, same trades, same all until ECB....

sisse

__________ ____________

Quoting chester123
...however, bunds are moving up (not the move expected with extension of QE) and E/U moving up too (as well not logical). Im just saying that I do not get the logic behind it. so is there some congnitive disonance and some market is gonna be caught wrong or what?
Here:

Quoting sisse
A simple day across the board with only one highlight equities breaking correlation with Bonds pre ECB/FED.
This is for a ****advanced topic alert ....try to dig deeper. What do you think happened? ...we'll keep it open for discussion...

Quoting Pharm0r
... wont often find a fundamental move surprising a technical trader. ...It's easier however to find a fundamental trader surprised by a technical move.... Is it really that crazy of a thought that both FA and TA can be equal parts of the whole? ....
BS with CAPITALS .. sorry mate you are talking rubbish and spreading retail myths and non sense. what TA? a mofu? a stochastic 123? a squiggly line? what? how ?where? when? what FA? where? when? how? What is being surprised? who exactly? trader average joe 1,2,3? GS? Bank abc? who? what? how? when?....

Is it really that crazy of a thought that both FA and TA can be equal parts of the whole?

Yes

Can you tell us what ingredients are in a Pizza margherita or your favourite one?

Quoting hoom
.... Market is heavily positionned to the sell side so when smart money stepped in around 1.050x , the rally was fuled by the soft sellers forcing them to close their positions adding to the upward pressure . That's the definition of a short squeeze ! ....!
Exactly no more, no less, no drama.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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