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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,021
  • Dec 6, 2016 5:29am Dec 6, 2016 5:29am
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} I have a lot respect for you especially in this thread. Just posting why bulls and why random level...{image}{image}
check these mids out, they both have some PA to support taking a chance on them if your bullish....1.0723 also has some support I suspect...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #146,022
  • Dec 6, 2016 6:13am Dec 6, 2016 6:13am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} check these mids out, they both have some PA to support taking a chance on them if your bullish....1.0723 also has some support I suspect... {image}
Normally it retraces 50% where bulls should emerge but if last day top is taken out, no chance to take fresh longs...

1.0680 to 1.0650 is the zone i'm looking at...
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #146,023
  • Dec 6, 2016 7:39am Dec 6, 2016 7:39am
Yes, that was a machine gun approach, that was an impulse trade due to the loss. Closed that and closed my terminal... Not going to do anything until next week,.... What is Sisse's short term outlook on EUR?
Quoting Grinsakh
{quote} Nice gun, is it new? You got many bullets?
  • #146,024
  • Dec 6, 2016 9:18am Dec 6, 2016 9:18am
the thread is really silent guys what happened .... no one's sharing nothing ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,025
  • Dec 6, 2016 9:22am Dec 6, 2016 9:22am
Quoting primejarvis
the thread is really silent guys what happened .... no one's sharing nothing ....
working and waiting for ECB untill that I do not expect much
  • #146,026
  • Dec 6, 2016 9:30am Dec 6, 2016 9:30am
Quoting primejarvis
the thread is really silent guys what happened .... no one's sharing nothing ....
I read this article shared in another Thread which we traders should keep in mind the date of December 19, the official date to elect The USA President.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...rs-to-join-him
  • #146,027
  • Dec 6, 2016 9:47am Dec 6, 2016 9:47am
Team,

As chester123 pointed out, waiting on ECB and I'm working a different job which requires diff hours and time. No more being BatMan and fighting crime.

I appreciate everyone's comments and you all are right. Exforx, I will look for this book. I admit I see more of my flaws or the glass half empty most the time. Thanks for caring to share, encourage and give positive criticism.

The only reason I loss on that last trade was I fell asleep at the wheel or on the "bus" lirerally and woke up to the squeeze. I knew I should have locked in profit and put stops in.

Now, I want to position for this next trade but with .73x holding, I am not confident to take a trade yet.

Goodluck to all of you.
  • #146,028
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:28am Dec 6, 2016 10:28am
Quoting chester123
{quote} working and waiting for ECB untill that I do not expect much
even me but what I think is we are for 3rd or 4th time in neutral and its really a "choose your poison time" .... whatsoever the case during ecb speak we will get a good amount of spike and i dont think that will be the time to fire the bullet .... i have chosen mine lets see how it pans out ..... till now its working fine ....

my map for the ecb is really simple no complication .... a direct break of low of 2015 and will move beyond but in the mean time lets see how this 2 days works .... untill now the map is as written above .....

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I read this article shared in another Thread which we traders should keep in mind the date of December 19, the official date to elect The USA President. http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...rs-to-join-him
for me its the start of the damage as soon as the inauguration is done .... we will see a lot of surprises.... will talk about this later ....i dont think its the time for this..........

Quoting IMARICH1
Team, As chester123 pointed out, waiting on ECB and I'm working a different job which requires diff hours and time. No more being BatMan and fighting crime. I appreciate everyone's comments and you all are right. Exforx, I will look for this book. I admit I see more of my flaws or the glass half empty most the time. Thanks for caring to share, encourage and give positive criticism. The only reason I loss on that last trade was I fell asleep at the wheel or on the "bus" lirerally and woke up to the squeeze. I knew I...
the same thing happened with me also and just got a hit on the bump....anyways learnt a lesson .... 1 trade was stopped out(manually) after the whole mess was done ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,029
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:34am Dec 6, 2016 10:34am
Quoting Pharm0r
Only thing to look out for on ECB is tapering suggestions
what you think ecb is going to taper or not .... do

you know how to put a yes or no vote poll here ....? we should put it if possible not only before ecb but before every major event .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,030
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:45am Dec 6, 2016 10:45am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} what you think ecb is going to taper or not .... do you know how to put a yes or no vote poll here ....? we should put it if possible not only before ecb but before every major event .....
I deleted the comment, want to form a better analysis before posting

They have to taper yes, but not expected for this meeting. I will however be looking for tapering suggestions or timelines- which I'd consider to be hawkish EU and set the floor until FED.

The only way to poll is to make a thread...one poll per thread
  • #146,031
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:57am Dec 6, 2016 10:57am
except for ECB. what my brain really does not get is this: after trump equities rally - ok there were some arguments for that, but after Italy vote - european and mostly italien equities are in a manic up flow (ok, extending qe by ECB). however, bunds are moving up (not the move expected with extension of QE) and E/U moving up too (as well not logical).

Im just saying that I do not get the logic behind it. so is there some congnitive disonance and some market is gonna be caught wrong or what?
  • #146,032
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:59am Dec 6, 2016 10:59am
ECB scenarios on E/U.

1. QE extended. They did this last December and E/U went up that day. At the time, people said it was due to the 'free money/helicopter money' effect on equities. Any reason that wouldn't happen this time?
2. Tapering. It seems consensus is that tapering will cause E/U to go up b/c monetary tightening--supply/demand--with shortening of supply.
3. Rates change. I don't see anyone projecting any change here. Another rate cut seems it would lead to an E/U drop, and vice versa, but there has always been media discussion about rate changes before they actually happen, so very unlikely imo.

What are the bears looking for with ECB? No tapering? Draghi saying "there was no discussion of tapering" or the like? It seems highly probable there will be a question about tapering timelines if it is not addressed in their statement.
defense wins championships
  • #146,033
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:03am Dec 6, 2016 11:03am
Quoting seemoore
ECB scenarios on E/U. 1. QE extended. They did this last December and E/U went up that day. At the time, people said it was due to the 'free money/helicopter money' effect on equities. Any reason that wouldn't happen this time? 2. Tapering. It seems consensus is that tapering will cause E/U to go up b/c monetary tightening--supply/demand--with shortening of supply. 3. Rates change. I don't see anyone projecting any change here. Another rate cut seems it would lead to an E/U drop, and vice versa, but there has always been media discussion...
yes there is a reason. in my view its absolutely irrelevant what happened before in DEC because the situation (=expectations) is absolutely different. Im pretty persuaded that these analogies to individual acts/informations do not work.
  • #146,034
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:04am Dec 6, 2016 11:04am
EU moving up is absolutely logical if you truly believe what you've been saying about FED rates being priced in. If there is a move after the FOMC, then they were not in fact completely priced in. The whole notion of "priced in", is that the exchange rate or whatever is trading where it should be in relation to the fundamental aspects expected.

From my eyes, EU is moving via the Dollar not the EURO* (as is everything else). So the recent move in EU should be contributed more to the sell off of dollar than the economic underlying of the EURO*. Perhaps a totally technical move with no fundamental aspect to attribute to as there is nothing else to go on currently.

Not sure on BUNDS or European equities unfortunately. You're more adept to that analysis than I.
  • #146,035
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:09am Dec 6, 2016 11:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
EU moving up is absolutely logical if you truly believe what you've been saying about FED rates being priced in. If there is a move after the FOMC, then they were not in fact completely priced in. The whole notion of "priced in", is that the exchange rate or whatever is trading where it should be in relation to the fundamental aspects expected. From my eyes, EU is moving via the Dollar not the EURO* (as is everything else). So the recent move in EU should be contributed more to the sell off of dollar than the economic underlying of the EURO*. Perhaps...
And this is what Im also wondering - Its clear that M1 move has no FA behind it. However, does a short squeeze on short term have? Or does it have to have it? Or is it more a technical flow triggered inside the short term range without any FA reasons?

Im afraid I need sisse back
  • #146,036
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:14am Dec 6, 2016 11:14am
Quoting chester123
except for ECB. what my brain really does not get is this: after trump equities rally - ok there were some arguments for that, but after Italy vote - european and mostly italien equities are in a manic up flow (ok, extending qe by ECB). however, bunds are moving up (not the move expected with extension of QE) and E/U moving up too (as well not logical). Im just saying that I do not get the logic behind it. so is there some congnitive disonance and some market is gonna be caught wrong or what?
What I feel is like it's in pure RMT mode .... I.e., taking price to a level to make the risk off the table .....the range which is bounded from March last year is really showing me that it doesn't wants to move to parity .... 
Hope u got what I am trying to say
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,037
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:19am Dec 6, 2016 11:19am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} What I feel is like it's in pure RMT mode .... I.e., taking price to a level to make the risk off the table .....the range which is bounded from March last year is really showing me that it doesn't wants to move to parity .... Hope u got what I am trying to say
what do you mean by that sentence?

I agree the MT range is annoying. Looking at E/U since 91 it seems to me its the longest MT range in history actually. its usually nicely trending on MT. In any case. After this ST leg technically the MT move down to near parity is done deal in my view and FA extremelly likely. we just have to get over this ST squeeze and also over some mistakes some of us did here. I was one of them. But I learnt. And its problem back from risk-management/positioning.... as usual.
:
  • #146,038
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:20am Dec 6, 2016 11:20am
Quoting chester123
{quote} And this is what Im also wondering - Its clear that M1 move has no FA behind it. However, does a short squeeze on short term have? Or does it have to have it? Or is it more a technical flow triggered inside the short term range without any FA reasons?
I don't know. Who does?

It seems to me, you wont often find a fundamental move surprising a technical trader. "ECB has exploded, EU sells to 0" wouldn't surprise a technical trader. He/she will say, "oh, that's and obvious fundamental catastrophe of course that happened".

It's easier however to find a fundamental trader surprised by a technical move. "Multi year (not H1, D, Weekly..YEARLY) low protected on first attempt at breaking after unprecedented 800 pip fall over 6 weeks". This wont surprise a technical trader but would baffle some fundamental traders. Why? Is it really that crazy of a thought that both FA and TA can be equal parts of the whole? We live in a world dominated by high frequency trading and computers that don't understand fundamental reasoning (yet).

A zealot is a zealot, whether Christian or Muslim. Fundamental zealots may not be any different than technical zealots. At least, that's my view on the subject.

Anyway, my opinion is that it's just a technical bounce that in the scope of technical trading isn't that big of a surprise. For the rest to be seen we need fundamental triggers and confirmations (ECB, and larger extent FED)
  • #146,039
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:22am Dec 6, 2016 11:22am
Quoting Pharm0r
EU moving up is absolutely logical if you truly believe what you've been saying about FED rates being priced in. If there is a move after the FOMC, then they were not in fact completely priced in. The whole notion of "priced in", is that the exchange rate or whatever is trading where it should be in relation to the fundamental aspects expected. From my eyes, EU is moving via the Dollar not the EURO* (as is everything else). So the recent move in EU should be contributed more to the sell off of dollar than the economic underlying of the EURO*. Perhaps...
What I believe is that euro is not being moved via monetary policy ... If I remember well draghi was giving a lot of pressure on the fiscal policy rather than monetary ... And if we go via monetary we will start an uptrend direction which I guess will start after the inauguration of us election ....
Just a thought 
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,040
  • Dec 6, 2016 11:31am Dec 6, 2016 11:31am
Quoting chester123
{quote} what do you mean by that sentence? I agree the MT range is annoying. Looking at E/U since 91 it seems to me its the longest MT range in history actually. its usually nicely trending on MT. In any case. After this ST leg technically the MT move down to near parity is done deal in my view and FA extremelly likely. we just have to get over this ST squeeze and also over some mistakes some of us did here. I was one of them. But I learnt. And its problem back from risk-management/positioning.... as usual. ...
I mean to say ...1st scenario draghi comes dovish expected fall 200 - 300 pips ... 2nd scenario draghi comes inline expected  chop of 100 -150 pips ( not expected at all)  ... What I am trying to say that draghi wants eu to be low but I don't think he wants 1:1 parity ....hope you got me and its just a thought ... 
Re-Incarnated
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