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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #22,141
  • Edited 1:57am Dec 5, 2016 1:47am | Edited 1:57am
Looking at the USDJPY 233 tick, the market has spoken. Expectation has failed! Purple box is were I would like to see price come to for and entry.
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Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #22,142
  • Dec 5, 2016 3:16am Dec 5, 2016 3:16am
Had some better than expected projection. Got to wait and see. Looking for a complex correction.
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Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #22,143
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:30am Dec 5, 2016 6:30am
Gbpusd - 2min
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  • #22,144
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:42am Dec 5, 2016 7:42am
EURUSD [M5 Chart]

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USDJPY [M5 Chart]

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Observation only at this stage.

Not a lot of interest in either side of the argument by bulls or bears so its a waiting game.

PA is rather sluggish at this point in time but if the bulls come in with intent an early entry could be on the cards.

ps. also looking at GU and UJ.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #22,145
  • Dec 5, 2016 8:25am Dec 5, 2016 8:25am
Amazing, YM produced from a new intraday NSL a big NSH
  • #22,146
  • Dec 5, 2016 9:33am Dec 5, 2016 9:33am
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  • #22,147
  • Dec 5, 2016 9:44am Dec 5, 2016 9:44am
Quoting rocky
{image}
That's a great day it looks like!
  • #22,148
  • Dec 5, 2016 9:45am Dec 5, 2016 9:45am
TF +.9

Mismanaged this one.

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  • #22,149
  • Dec 5, 2016 11:05am Dec 5, 2016 11:05am
Quoting rocky
{image}

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  • #22,150
  • Dec 5, 2016 11:25am Dec 5, 2016 11:25am
Quoting rocky
{quote} {image}
By chance you were not in good shape for trading otherwise there would not be any money left for the rest of us ;-)

Great day as usual Rocky. Congrats!
  • #22,151
  • Dec 5, 2016 11:33am Dec 5, 2016 11:33am
Quoting jmezz
TF +.9 Mismanaged this one. {image}
Im not sure I follow why it was a mismanaged trade. You read price correctly, you got a reaction (maybe not as violent as you predicted but still a reaction) and you got to lock in some profit. Was the mismanagement due to not trailing aggressively since it was counter trend or was it a mismanagement because you let your daily quota slip? Not sure what your trade plan looks like. Was your expectation the first zone?

Anyhow, in the end you made some profit and you followed the first three rules of trading. Don't lose money!
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #22,152
  • Dec 5, 2016 2:54pm Dec 5, 2016 2:54pm
could not trade the morning or early afternoon....
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It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #22,153
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:11pm Dec 5, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting evocpr19
@rocky, Jmezz: Congrats Mr. Pip, I have a question concerning the price action of YM today. 1) I was looking for long entries: However I missed the entry (first box) and honestly I was not expecting such a drop, but I thought that it is more a fake out. The second entry would have been during the time where you shorted (I was not sure anymore, so I did nothing). 2) I understand your entry, but I would like to know when would have changed your mind (in case price would not have turned in your favour; price went higher then "immediate main swing")...
Thank you Evo!

Quoting Mack2013
Us30 -89t +23 {image}
Nice job here projecting swings, something I struggle to do past the initial 1:1.

Quoting rocky
{quote} {image}
Excellent work per usual Rocky, thank you for your charts and notes over the past few trading days.

Quoting LaBoca
could not trade the morning or early afternoon.... {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Nice trading today. Thanks for your charts.
  • #22,154
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:31pm Dec 5, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting Mr_Burns
{quote} Im not sure I follow why it was a mismanaged trade. You read price correctly, you got a reaction (maybe not as violent as you predicted but still a reaction) and you got to lock in some profit. Was the mismanagement due to not trailing aggressively since it was counter trend or was it a mismanagement because you let your daily quota slip? Not sure what your trade plan looks like. Was your expectation the first zone? Anyhow, in the end you made some profit and you followed the first three rules of trading. Don't lose money!
Now that I've had some time to think about this trade I don't think mismanagement was the best way to describe it.

The basis for the trade was for a strong fade back down, I was looking for a test of at least the ONH. We got a move down, I locked in some profit, and came out unscathed so yes in that regard I guess it wasn't a mismanagement.

I think at the time I was just disappointed that I walked away from the trade with a small percentage of the overall max. The trade was up $185 / contract max and I walked away with $45 / contract. Something about that just seems wrong to me like I should have managed it better somehow.

I am kind of at a crossroads here. I typically look to take a consistent 20 YM points per day or $100 if trading other instruments (ES, TF today). However I'm not sure if I should get super aggressive or close trades once they get up near my quota or let the process work instead. Sometimes I miss out on quota by letting trades work while sometimes I miss out on large runs because I close the trade out early in order to lock in quota.

My thought process is that if you can sit there and habitually hit your quota each day then I think you have the capability for large profits down the road when you're trading all sorts of contracts. I like a quota because it keeps me from overtrading (most of the time). I have not had a large drawdown since I started trading with the quota forefront in my mind so it makes sense to me however we've been taught in here to follow the process and let it work. We've seen people in here hit some huge trades by letting them run. I'm well aware of this.

So I guess I'm just not sure what line of thought is best to apply to my trading, I'm not sure where to take it from here.

Would appreciate anyone's feedback.
  • #22,155
  • Dec 5, 2016 5:09pm Dec 5, 2016 5:09pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Now that I've had some time to think about this trade I don't think mismanagement was the best way to describe it. The basis for the trade was for a strong fade back down, I was looking for a test of at least the ONH. We got a move down, I locked in some profit, and came out unscathed so yes in that regard I guess it wasn't a mismanagement. I think at the time I was just disappointed that I walked away from the trade with a small percentage of the overall max. The trade was up $185 / contract max and I walked away with $45 / contract. Something...
It sounds like you are defining your stance on the matter. I would tell you to consult your trade plan what does it say on trade management? Just because I don't trade with a quota does not mean you don't have to or that it is less effective. You have made this approach your own and that is what I have asked you to do. It's up to the individual trader how he applies the knowledge and that will very differently from trader to trader.

If you are being productive and you are satisfied with the returns. If your trading state is stable and the quota helps you with the emotion balancing then why change something that is working fine for you. I don't trade with a quota simply because I make way more money in the long run allowing the expectations to play out as they usually do. But that may not suit your style you trading state.

Do what feels more natural to you and what helps you achieve your financial goals. As time moves on and your experience matures you may evolve into a different style of trade management. Perhaps a combination of both like having a monthly goal and once you achieve that then giving for room to capture those larger expectations. I am more concerned about being consistent with my trade plan then with how much money I make or lose because I know that if I can follow my plan the profits will be there at the end of the month.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #22,156
  • Dec 5, 2016 5:11pm Dec 5, 2016 5:11pm
I'm sorry I was not able to join you guys at battle today but I will be here tomorrow to mix it up with sharks. We will se who eats who tomorrow. I am almost done with the trading psychology presentation and I should be able to put that out hopefully by Wednesday. Just putting the finishing touches on the PowerPoint.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #22,157
  • Dec 5, 2016 5:32pm Dec 5, 2016 5:32pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Now that I've had some time to think about this trade I don't think mismanagement was the best way to describe it. The basis for the trade was for a strong fade back down, I was looking for a test of at least the ONH. We got a move down, I locked in some profit, and came out unscathed so yes in that regard I guess it wasn't a mismanagement. I think at the time I was just disappointed that I walked away from the trade with a small percentage of the overall max. The trade was up $185 / contract max and I walked away with $45 / contract. Something...
When I trade smaller swings, I am most of the time ok.
However, when I try to trade the bigger moves, the success rate is currently not good. This is why I appreciate Mr. Pip's comments and chart when he trades live, even if I do not enter the trade. I also appreciate your charts with your comments.
I helps me to follow the process when things happens in order to work out "where price is working towards" without hindsight.

Hence, I would tend for the moment to look for smaller targets which is also more in line with my other commitments. Most of the time when I sit in the train home from work, the big moves on YM happens but without me.

To be honest, I think you do more than fine (I would be more than happy with your results).
  • #22,158
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:01pm Dec 5, 2016 6:01pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Now that I've had some time to think about this trade I don't think mismanagement was the best way to describe it. The basis for the trade was for a strong fade back down, I was looking for a test of at least the ONH. We got a move down, I locked in some profit, and came out unscathed so yes in that regard I guess it wasn't a mismanagement. I think at the time I was just disappointed that I walked away from the trade with a small percentage of the overall max. The trade was up $185 / contract max and I walked away with $45 / contract. Something...
If it aint broken dont fix it.you doing just fine brother keep it up.
  • #22,159
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:45pm Dec 5, 2016 6:45pm
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  • #22,160
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:52pm Dec 5, 2016 6:52pm
Quoting rocky
{image}
Thank for the chart and the information great analysis and overview. It's hard to teach these newer guys to see the deeper dynamics of the order flow and to spot imbalance. I am thinking how to show this in a video. I have a few ideas but I wanted to address trading psychology first. Thanks again for the great contribution Rocky.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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