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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,941
  • Dec 4, 2016 5:07pm Dec 4, 2016 5:07pm
Quoting janpec1000
All eyes on bonds in few hours. Ramping move could bake the cake for no QE tappering in few days and extended bear leg on EU especially with more hawkish FED. {image}
Risk on play confirmed. Its not done yet, London open will open further flows. No suprises with bull JPY/gold but Bitcoin blink was rather low on deliverance.
  • #145,942
  • Dec 4, 2016 7:02pm Dec 4, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting sisse
Europe getting back to their senses and rejecting another populist and neonazi party in power. In huge contradiction Trump making the first official 'faux pas' pissing off the Chinese. 2017 is aligning to be a hell of a year and for the way it's aligning the honeymoon Trump rally has its weeks counted.... All eyes Italy for the results for the open. Sharp moves expected this week... sisse
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...-spending-cuts

Money talks, bs walks. It's true that there's probably no limit to the damage Trump can do, but as long as the new regime fills the trough with massive free swill for the 1%, WS will not notice. I have to be bullish US equities into Q1 and on the lookout for Trump and his minions to scare hell out of everyone, but the latter are events impossible to trade with much strategic forethought.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,943
  • Dec 4, 2016 7:38pm Dec 4, 2016 7:38pm
Gold I have never been able to read right. I am playing GLD call calendars out at $130, which is the same as gold = $1,350 - GLD has monthly and quarterly options, so there is a 10-day calendar you can do at the end of each quarter, usually pretty cheap and offers around a 10x maxP. Trying those at Mar and Jun, a bet gold will bounce if/when inflation really begins to move....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,944
  • Dec 4, 2016 7:41pm Dec 4, 2016 7:41pm
No surprises from Italy. No in the referendum as expected. Euro gapping down and sitting 1.056x trigerring imminent break down alerts for the flow.

We have Q/M/W/D and now even the direct news flow aligned...we may not even hold for the European open.

Quoting The Fool
{quote} https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...-spending-cuts Money talks, bs walks. It's true that there's probably no limit to the damage Trump can do, but as long as the new regime fills the trough with massive free swill for the 1%, WS will not notice. I have to be bullish US equities into Q1 and on the lookout for Trump and his minions to scare hell out of everyone, but the latter are events impossible to trade with much strategic forethought.
We are in 'choose your poison time' in the world. Like always they r going to be winners and losers.

History, economics and common sense don't really give much room for good outcomes for those who align with populism, nationalism and protectionism. It never had, it never will.

So far the UK and Italy has made clear were they stand.

Last time during WWI and II the US took the opposite side and became the most powerful and richest country on earth. This time they have decided to tsste the other side.

Depending on how deep they go, the higher the toll. Markets will speak and give the final verdict sooner rather than later but first we need real official policy confirmations in a few fronts to trigger the domino...until then ride the pig or for those smart enough start looking for rebalancing portfolio before the crowd....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,945
  • Dec 4, 2016 7:57pm Dec 4, 2016 7:57pm
Quoting sisse
Markets will speak and give the final verdict sooner rather than later but first we need real official policy confirmations in a few fronts to trigger the domino...until then ride the pig or if those smart enough start looking for rebalancing portfolio before the crowd.... sisse
With the Squid et al running the show I expect a real feeding frenzy. The first real foray into trade war possibilities - real or not - will be where I would expect to see some fear set in. This could happen any time, but likely not until after the honeymoon is over....I guess....until after the Inauguration anyway.

Then we are into the New Year with Brexit and French elections developments to add to the pot....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,946
  • Dec 4, 2016 8:25pm Dec 4, 2016 8:25pm
[quote=IMARICH1;9315030][quote=IMARICH1;9311268]Wondering how likely we will see a roll near the .061x today? It appears due to inline we are in a chop zone for now and nothing to see. I was looking for news and normal flows to test same levels around .058x (Check)and .056x. (Check)Not looking for a new low until ECB/Italy if that creates the momentum play.(????) New LOW in play?(in play)

Looking for .046X-.044X for now but an extension to .021X later.

LONG TERM MAP shows if this accumulation from .16XX to .05XX breakouts; then, TA possible for .96XX to come into play. But, that's for another time in future. I am just looking at completion of MID TERM LEG for now.
  • #145,947
  • Dec 4, 2016 8:36pm Dec 4, 2016 8:36pm
what did the S&P do after the epic 25 bps ffr hike last Dec 16? Dropped 70 pts in the 2 days right after, ranged back up in the following week, but never regained the Dec highwater. Then dove 200 pts in the first 7 weeks of 2016. This December should be different....?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,948
  • Dec 4, 2016 8:41pm Dec 4, 2016 8:41pm
Awkward to say the least. Checking FX markets from Asia time zone seems unnatural without Europe and the US.

In any case, 2 and only 2 things to track for the European opening later.

Italian Bonds rallying and bsnk stocks selling off. Depending on the reaction from the open im Milan we'll see if news flow is over or get some real action till ECB (which is the real mover and shaker).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,949
  • Dec 4, 2016 10:15pm Dec 4, 2016 10:15pm
good things come to those who wait - natgas has doubled in 2016. Cold weather finally coming in force the next few months, maybe we can get some big draws and a spike well above $4.00
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,950
  • Dec 5, 2016 1:55am Dec 5, 2016 1:55am
Quoting sisse
No surprises from Italy. No in the referendum as expected. Euro gapping down and sitting 1.056x trigerring imminent break down alerts for the flow. We have Q/M/W/D and now even the direct news flow aligned...we may not even hold for the European open. {quote} We are in 'choose your poison time' in the world. Like always they r going to be winners and losers. History, economics and common sense don't really give much room for good outcomes for those who align with populism, nationalism and protectionism. It never had, it never will. So far the UK...
twitter and facebook are the real politicians. Sad.

It was not an itexit but, as i wrote, after this result Italy is pointing for near future to an M5S government an anti-EU and UKIP long standing friend movement so worries in mid/long term are more than justified (in this context worries for EUR and EU future).

The problem is that Italy (even if shooting in his foot for the last thirty or so years) is still a founder member and the third contributor to EU Balance (not counting leaving UK whith his rebate mechanism) and his departure from EU would be in my opinion even more dramatic the UK one (UK never really integrated in EU core).

For Italy, in my opinion, would be a real drama.

In short term managing little positions still open and looking for new one if i see a good chanche for ECB flow.
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  • #145,951
  • Dec 5, 2016 3:25am Dec 5, 2016 3:25am
News from the grexit front (source: trade terminal):

Quote
Wolfgang Schuble talks tough on Greek debt relief, leaves Grexit open - 5 December 2016, 11:10
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schuble talked tough on Brexit by suggesting the debt relief wouldnt help Greece and regardless of that, Athens would have to pursue economic reforms. As of now, debt in Greece stands at staggering 175 percent of GDP and it is unsustainable at 330 billion. The Eurozone, especially Germany and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been at odds over Greek debt levels. IMF strongly feels that the level is unsustainable,...
  • #145,952
  • Dec 5, 2016 5:29am Dec 5, 2016 5:29am
...back to the top of the range with Euro holding the opening session with a soft short squeeze on the European session... and is 'choose your poison time' for the 3er time in Euro for the US session with same levels, same trades same all.

On the rest of the board, Italian knee jerk reaction done and we are back to the ECB play ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,953
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:00am Dec 5, 2016 6:00am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Risk on play confirmed. Its not done yet, London open will open further flows. No suprises with bull JPY/gold but Bitcoin blink was rather low on deliverance.
Jumped gun too early without London, short squeeze structure opening futher upward extended move. No trades were taken but at least its better known where it stands now on short term on odds side.

EDIT: Nvm above posts explains it all.
  • #145,954
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:07am Dec 5, 2016 6:07am
  • #145,955
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:18am Dec 5, 2016 6:18am
Quoting janpec1000
...No trades were taken...
Why not?....

.... just for the sake of topic reference a quick back chart for those that have asked...same case as before?

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sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,956
  • Edited 10:23am Dec 5, 2016 6:21am | Edited 10:23am
Short EU at 0717 SL 0751 tp1 0650 tp2 0520 tp 3 0470
  • #145,957
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:25am Dec 5, 2016 6:25am
looks like a bear flag daily, not clearing my longs yet
  • #145,958
  • Edited 7:08am Dec 5, 2016 6:54am | Edited 7:08am
Broke 0520 with at least some modicum of chutzpah there. I'm thinking 046x gets a visit.
  • #145,959
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:15am Dec 5, 2016 7:15am
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,960
  • Dec 5, 2016 7:16am Dec 5, 2016 7:16am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{image}
shit, i woke up and my paper profits got eaten, and good portion of my capital. thats monster is scary...
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