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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,921
  • Edited Dec 3, 2016 12:44am Dec 2, 2016 7:43pm | Edited Dec 3, 2016 12:44am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yeah but my ? is why.... Has nothing to do with Italian Ref... peso makes sense over Trump and their finance minister leaving, but yen?

I dont know why, but quoting NFA (Given the recent volatility in the currency markets, and the margin increases that CME and ICE have implemented with respect to foreign currency futures involving the Mexican peso, Japanese yen, and New Zealand dollar, the Executive Committee has determined to increase the minimum security deposits required to be collected and maintained by FDMs under NFA Financial Requirements Section 12 )
I can see Yen, and Peso volatility is up short term, but New Zealand volatility is down.
Looking at weekly Yen, ATR is lower now then it was at bottom in June.

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  • #145,922
  • Dec 4, 2016 12:23am Dec 4, 2016 12:23am
Quoting The Fool
Interesting winter reading....
http://www.freetradedoesntwork.com/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,923
  • Edited 3:07am Dec 4, 2016 2:57am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting chester123
All right here is my try for NFP: FA and expectations: unemployment is on FED target and NFP still running high (above FED comfortable 100 lvl). DEC hike is done deal by now so..... overshoot (accounting only NFP number +but there are AHE too of course) - we would need strong one (due to ADP slight overshoot is expected) - more than 250 = translates into stronger hike path in mid term. Inline = nothing to see for FA implications- FED and unemployment on track. Any miss - 150 and below will not be important per se from the FA side. Only a huge miss...
Nicely don't mate.

  1. First, 2 thumbs up for having the guts to do a live FA, TA and trade call analysis live and during NFP. Most and some of the loudest mouths around the internet boards wont 'reputation risk' making a comment/call before the fact during real moves.
  2. Second, you got it spot on the FA and the general flows direction.
  3. Third, on the TA part I don't really share your numbers in general and I don't at all for a simple NFP play. However, you got 100% right that the play was for positioning for the major mover and shaker this week.

Quote
P.S.: honestly, the biggest problem for me is maping the exact flow - sisse always says all micro lvls raised. But I do not know if that means all except for short/mid/long term lvls cuz you can see I added those two sub-short term lvls to map the flow and that may be wrong!!!!

As a quick feedback...

--> Micro levels are raised only for major events that are expected to shake the board. Last NFP WASN'T one.

-> The only thing I can say about your post is that your map for the NFP flow was out of scope (despite the exact levels).

  1. 1.0865 strong res. (extreme) - 1.0783 resistance (top) - 1.064 flip 1.054 - support (low) - 1.046 strong support (extreme)

--> As you well pointed out there was nothing major in play for NFP.
--> However your map was way beyond the safe zone range (I know why... It's hard to call and worst publicly A NFP flow, etc etc) and you scoped out yourself from having to have a trade trigger. Basically your analysis didn't match your map .... For what is worth and obviously now with the benefit of hindsight but my call following you FA/Flows analysis would have been: "soft direct play with better or overshoot numbers and absolutely nothing to trade to the other side in any outcome" with a basic flow map of ....
--> "Cheap tickets available for the ECB/FED combo, fade the high for positioning in direct play targeting 1.061x for the roll before deciding to hold or close given Italian referendum ..."

Your map (despite the levels) is a valid one for the Italy/ECB combo for the short term swing but It wasn't neither the NFP play (as it was just a soft one for a chance of cheap tickets for the mid term swing), or the one which is currently in play from today's open onwards which is the extension [or not]of the mid term swing ....

Whatever the case, well done, great analysis, keep it coming and lets get ready for the major movers and shakers this month...

-----> ---------> ---------> -----> ---------> ---------> -----> ---------> --------->

All eyes in Italy and ECB. Euro* in full control of the board. 1.073x to the top side as soft reference for the open today. 1.061x one and only level in play in the Euro. 1.056x naked in the floor.

GL all trading, planning to trade or already in positions ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,924
  • Dec 4, 2016 3:13am Dec 4, 2016 3:13am
Welcome back sisse .... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,925
  • Dec 4, 2016 3:28am Dec 4, 2016 3:28am
All eyes on bonds in few hours. Ramping move could bake the cake for no QE tappering in few days and extended bear leg on EU especially with more hawkish FED.
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  • #145,926
  • Dec 4, 2016 6:29am Dec 4, 2016 6:29am
im not very good on this side of trading so i figured some help here would be best... anyone? if you can make sense of what i am proposing...

will Europe be more likely to seek a better agreement with the UK should Italy leave? as a big contributor to the EU economy, with another potential loss for the EU with Italy (and any domino effect it may have Spain, Greece, France?) crumbling Europe may need deals like this to hold it together for longer?

don't take that literally, i don't have the time to go into much more detail atm

anyway, any response/insight would be much appreciated
  • #145,927
  • Dec 4, 2016 7:46am Dec 4, 2016 7:46am
Quoting Don96
im not very good on this side of trading so i figured some help here would be best... anyone? if you can make sense of what i am proposing... will Europe be more likely to seek a better agreement with the UK should Italy leave? as a big contributor to the EU economy, with another potential loss for the EU with Italy (and any domino effect it may have Spain, Greece, France?) crumbling Europe may need deals like this to hold it together for longer? don't take that literally, i don't have the time to go into much more detail atm anyway, any response/insight...
My view from Europe... if you feel really hungry, you will try to eat as much as you can. Simple.
  • #145,928
  • Dec 4, 2016 10:09am Dec 4, 2016 10:09am
Quoting Don96
... will Europe be more likely to seek a better agreement with the UK should Italy leave?...
I think totally the opposite to stop the hemorrhage/bleeding and therefore discourage other countries to do so.
  • #145,929
  • Dec 4, 2016 10:14am Dec 4, 2016 10:14am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I think totally the opposite to stop the hemorrhage/bleeding and therefore discourage other countries to do so.
so a worse agreement/if one at all for UK because threat of other countries leaving? even when other countries already threaten? Austria, Italy, France perhaps?

a lot of factors to consider - like i said im not very good with this side of the market so any detailed explanation appreciated, cheers
  • #145,930
  • Dec 4, 2016 10:43am Dec 4, 2016 10:43am
Quoting Don96
{quote} so a worse agreement/if one at all for UK because threat of other countries leaving? even when other countries already threaten? Austria, Italy, France perhaps? a lot of factors to consider - like i said im not very good with this side of the market so any detailed explanation appreciated, cheers
Perhaps important to consider how much (most) of that ball is in UK's court for now. They need to get their own negotiating position figured out before one can determine how strong it is.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ey-brexit-talk
  • #145,931
  • Dec 4, 2016 11:04am Dec 4, 2016 11:04am
An updated TBC pdf, ff wont let me post the OO file, pm if you want it. Thanks sisse and all.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Gourmet Trader TBC R2.pdf   798 KB | 610 downloads
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #145,932
  • Dec 4, 2016 11:59am Dec 4, 2016 11:59am
They've already given UK special deals across different sectors (sisse has talked about this quite a bit)

So it wouldn't be unexpected that they'd do the same for other countries that leave. From a negotiating viewpoint, EU's position gets worse the more that leave....so I could understand how you'd think they'd give bigger and better deals to hold it together.

I always try to put this in scope as far as trading goes....and really- it doesn't matter what deals and who gets them as we won't be privvy to them anyway.
  • #145,933
  • Dec 4, 2016 12:01pm Dec 4, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting Pharm0r
They've already given UK special deals across different sectors (sisse has talked about this quite a bit) So it wouldn't be unexpected that they'd do the same for other countries that leave. From a negotiating viewpoint, EU's position gets worse the more that leave....so I could understand how you'd think they'd give bigger and better deals to hold it together. I always try to put this in scope as far as trading goes....and really- it doesn't matter what deals and who gets them as we won't be privvy to them anyway.
cheers buddy, as always, much appreciated... ill have to read back over sisse's posts and drop in more often
  • #145,934
  • Dec 4, 2016 12:06pm Dec 4, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} cheers buddy, as always, much appreciated... ill have to read back over sisse's posts and drop in more often
Indeed only two threads in the forum is highly appreciated .... This and the gator's one ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,935
  • Dec 4, 2016 12:22pm Dec 4, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} cheers buddy, as always, much appreciated... ill have to read back over sisse's posts and drop in more often
please do!
  • #145,936
  • Dec 4, 2016 1:43pm Dec 4, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
They've already given UK special deals across different sectors (sisse has talked about this quite a bit) So it wouldn't be unexpected that they'd do the same for other countries that leave. From a negotiating viewpoint, EU's position gets worse the more that leave....so I could understand how you'd think they'd give bigger and better deals to hold it together. I always try to put this in scope as far as trading goes....and really- it doesn't matter what deals and who gets them as we won't be privvy to them anyway.

? What special deals you referring to? Nothing is negotiated.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,937
  • Dec 4, 2016 2:43pm Dec 4, 2016 2:43pm
Europe getting back to their senses and rejecting another populist and neonazi party in power. In huge contradiction Trump making the first official 'faux pas' pissing off the Chinese. 2017 is aligning to be a hell of a year and for the way it's aligning the honeymoon Trump rally has its weeks counted....

All eyes Italy for the results for the open. Sharp moves expected this week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,938
  • Edited 3:23pm Dec 4, 2016 2:46pm | Edited 3:23pm
Quoting sisse
Europe getting back to their senses and rejecting another populist and neonazi party in power. In huge contradiction Trump making the first official 'faux pas' pissing off the Chinese. 2017 is aligning to be a hell of a year and for the way it's aligning the honeymoon Trump rally has its weeks counted.... All eyes Italy for the results for the open. Sharp moves expected this week... sisse
Strong turnout for Hofer. I guess Clinton proved close doesn't count in elections. I wonder if that stronger turnout lent some confidence to LePen supporters though.
DJT taking a position (unintentionally?) as friend to Taiwan and enemy to Saturday Night Live has me thinking friends and foes of the US are currently switching from fear of the uncertainty of a Trump presidency to sizing up just how much they can take advantage of a Trump presidency.

Also if it comes down to it, I've seen names like "Italexit" floated which I find redundant and uncreative so I'd like to propose "Pizz Out" as an alternative.
  • #145,939
  • Dec 4, 2016 4:36pm Dec 4, 2016 4:36pm
EU sharp move down - italy NO vote. Not sure if this is permanent result or temporary.
  • #145,940
  • Dec 4, 2016 4:49pm Dec 4, 2016 4:49pm
[quote=IMARICH1;9311268]Wondering how likely we will see a roll near the .061x today? It appears due to inline we are in a chop zone for now and nothing to see. I was looking for news and normal flows to test same levels around .058x (Check)and .056x. (Check)Not looking for a new low until ECB/Italy if that creates the momentum play.(????)

New LOW in play?
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