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AUD/USD

  • #100,101
  • Edited 9:09am Dec 2, 2016 8:49am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} what i found with the ctrader sentiment specially on the AUD when sentiment is long price is short and then once price bottoms you will see sentiment switch to short then price goes up.
i guess it really depends on what or how the brokers derive at the numbers...that we will never know! but yea, we did talk about this the other day right?

Quoting thewriter30
why on earth is this going up?
profit taking. failure of the USD to gain more to the upside despite the NFP data is bound to trigger some quantity of profit taking resulting. this one looks mild though. let's see what happens at the london fix.
my 7450 short did work though. which is great. but it looks (at the moment) that the 200H MA still holds so i've closed it at 7439. next planned short entry at 7460.

by the way...after all his loud merry making....where did Jfrancis go?? it's been a quiet two days without his wave preaching
  • #100,102
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:18am Dec 2, 2016 9:18am
Quoting ell3
{quote} i guess it really depends on what or how the brokers derive at the numbers...that we will never know! but yea, we did talk about this the other day right? {quote} profit taking. failure of the USD to gain more to the upside despite the NFP data is bound to trigger some quantity of profit taking resulting. this one looks mild though. let's see what happens at the london fix. my 7450 short did work though. which is great. but it looks (at the moment) that the 200H MA still holds so i've closed it at 7439. next planned short entry at 7460....
jfrancis has been predictive down on AUDUSD. Last 2 days are up days. I predict we won't see him until we get some down candles next week.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,103
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:27am Dec 2, 2016 9:27am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} jfrancis has been predictive down on AUDUSD. Last 2 days are up days. I predict we won't see him until we get some down candles next week.
hahaha. well, not to discount wave theory...imo it's more useful for trading longer time frames when fundamentals call for a clearer picture - for e.g. in the earlier half of 2015 when the A/U was on a clear downtrend because the RBA was screaming dovish while the Fed was hawkish and everything else was bearish for the AUD. in times like this when things are less clear, wave theory becomes more of a post-mortem tool. plenty of uncertainty in the global economy. i don't think wave theory can predict what the fed will do.
  • #100,104
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:40am Dec 2, 2016 9:40am
Quoting ell3
{quote} hahaha. well, not to discount wave theory...imo it's more useful for trading longer time frames when fundamentals call for a clearer picture - for e.g. in the earlier half of 2015 when the A/U was on a clear downtrend because the RBA was screaming dovish while the Fed was hawkish and everything else was bearish for the AUD. in times like this when things are less clear, wave theory becomes more of a post-mortem tool. plenty of uncertainty in the global economy. i don't think wave theory can predict what the fed will do.
i recall a EW technician friend in AOL chat room who was using it to predict with accuracy, the rise and fall of the tech stocks in the '90's. He was very close. I personally don't like EW because there is always the alternate count, which is usually in opposite direction.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,105
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:41am Dec 2, 2016 11:41am
h1 close was bearish... looks to me like bulls dont want h4 to turn the same and will do what they can to stop h4 closes below 40 in the next 20 mins...

potential
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  • #100,106
  • Dec 3, 2016 1:30am Dec 3, 2016 1:30am
Aussie is currently underpinned by the strength of US dollar index and the lower priced metal commodity like copper. It is likely to trade in a limited range of 0.72 and 0.75 levels for upcoming weeks. It is expected that Aussie would not show any major uptrend because its strength would be affected by the Trump decisions, strength of global bonds, treasury yields and Fed rate hike expectations.
  • #100,107
  • Dec 3, 2016 4:39am Dec 3, 2016 4:39am
Quoting ammy
Aussie is currently underpinned by the strength of US dollar index and the lower priced metal commodity like copper. It is likely to trade in a limited range of 0.72 and 0.75 levels for upcoming weeks. It is expected that Aussie would not show any major uptrend because its strength would be affected by the Trump decisions, strength of global bonds, treasury yields and Fed rate hike expectations.
Really good research here and this is what you call research .

You are correct and what is even more concerning about the AUD is that figures have been negative in various industries.

Property will be next... i just offloaded two investment properties i had and made some nice coin but i can tell you a crash is comming
  • #100,108
  • Dec 4, 2016 5:02am Dec 4, 2016 5:02am
I wonder if AUD/USD is going back to 76 Cents or will this bounce in PA peter out and resume the trend lower.

AUD/USD daily chart shows the break and some detail on price action
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  • #100,109
  • Dec 4, 2016 5:08am Dec 4, 2016 5:08am
Quoting ectoplasm
I wonder if AUD/USD is going back to 76 Cents or will this bounce in PA peter out and resume the trend lower. AUD/USD daily chart shows the break and some detail on price action {image}
Not sure if it will but I have sell limits set up at .7550 and .76000 50% and 61.8% fib retracement.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,110
  • Dec 4, 2016 7:08pm Dec 4, 2016 7:08pm
Quoting Jfrancis
Guys remember when I said if you are not in the Aussie sell don't chase it because it will make a consolidation. That's what its doing right now. Dont miss this sell people! It will move fast.. You can even place an entry order below the low {image} {image}
I am acting as Nostradamus', I mean Jfrancis' public relations agent and editor in his absence. Here is the updated chart
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,111
  • Dec 5, 2016 1:32am Dec 5, 2016 1:32am
[quote=PaulDaemon;9314075]{quote} Not sure if it will but I have sell limits set up at .7550 and .76000 50% and 61.8% fib retracement.[/quot

I am liking those same levels you are calling for reversing. I am long again as cycle work tells me best bet is long into the holiday when books clear.

I am in no hurry to get short after new years as this may not be a normal cycle and possible this is more like january 2014 then january 2015.

Not doubt, we will get shorty on AUDUSD in Jan. Just do not feel it's a sure thing as it usually is at the new year open?
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Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,112
  • Dec 5, 2016 1:47am Dec 5, 2016 1:47am
Quoting newbegger
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Not sure if it will but I have sell limits set up at .7550 and .76000 50% and 61.8% fib retracement.[/quot I am liking those same levels you are calling for reversing. I am long again as cycle work tells me best bet is long into the holiday when books clear. I am in no hurry to get short after new years as this may not be a normal cycle and possible this is more like january 2014 then january 2015. Not doubt, we will get shorty on AUDUSD in Jan. Just do not feel it's a sure thing as it usually is at the new year
...
Oh, forgot to tell you something, Paul. If you like to draw fibs in reverse and don't want the new traders to laugh at you, just rename them so the newly formed experts cannot deflect.
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Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,113
  • Dec 5, 2016 2:21am Dec 5, 2016 2:21am
Quoting newbegger
{quote}{quote} Oh, forgot to tell you something, Paul. If you like to draw fibs in reverse and don't want the new traders to laugh at you, just rename them so the newly formed experts cannot deflect. {image}
LOL
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,114
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:36am Dec 5, 2016 4:36am
Anyone anticipating any impact from the RBA tomorrow?
  • #100,115
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:43am Dec 5, 2016 4:43am
Quoting ell3
Anyone anticipating any impact from the RBA tomorrow?
I reckon the statement will set the mood. I wouldn't be suprised if it alludes to further monetary easing in 2017 or at least be dovish considering the weaker than expected economy.
  • #100,116
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:44am Dec 5, 2016 4:44am
Quoting ell3
Anyone anticipating any impact from the RBA tomorrow?
On hold.

Maybe talk about the Feds hiking and letting them do the heavy lifting.

Possibly a talk about the cutting cycle coming to an end.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,117
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:48am Dec 5, 2016 4:48am
They will wait for CPI... that's the biggest influence on their decision, they're scared of poor number especially with the dodge employment reports.
  • #100,118
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:24am Dec 5, 2016 6:24am
waiting for the 0.7433 mark for a sell looks like there's resistance around that area on fib 4-hour chart

tight stop loss around 10 pips

You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,119
  • Dec 5, 2016 12:32pm Dec 5, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting breezetrade
waiting for the 0.7433 mark for a sell looks like there's resistance around that area on fib 4-hour chart tight stop loss around 10 pips
blew my stoploss so waited for the recent spike and sold again at 0.7495 hitting the top of the fib again a tight 10 pip stop loss
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,120
  • Dec 5, 2016 12:37pm Dec 5, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting newbegger
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Not sure if it will but I have sell limits set up at .7550 and .76000 50% and 61.8% fib retracement.[/quot I am liking those same levels you are calling for reversing. I am long again as cycle work tells me best bet is long into the holiday when books clear. I am in no hurry to get short after new years as this may not be a normal cycle and possible this is more like january 2014 then january 2015. Not doubt, we will get shorty on AUDUSD in Jan. Just do not feel it's a sure thing as it usually is at the new year
...
I like strong moves in my direction but it is not even resting much less retracing. I sense this may be a pump and dump to the upside (like Nov 30 pump and dump to the downside.)

Probably lot's of stops at the 7500, maybe some shorts. Hopefully it backs off before going higher to ease my worried mind
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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